Hot Air site glitch: Blame the faulty polls! Update: Were the polls faulty? Not exactly; Update: Hillary’s own internal polls predicted 11-point loss?
posted at 9:03 am on January 9, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Sorry about that. We had to tinker with the site last night to accommodate the comment surge lately and the stylesheet is now FUBAR. HA’s crack team of tech elves are already hard at work making repairs.
While we wait, enjoy Kaus’s four theories of how the polls got the Democratic race so wrong. Numbers 1, 2, and 4 were mentioned in passing on this site yesterday; number 2 appears to be the commentariat’s explanation of choice, doubtless because it slips so easily into the identity-politics framework. (For a nutroots-flavored variation, see here.) I especially like number 3, though, partly because it jibes with Clinton’s name-recognition advantage and/or the “lucky ballot” speculation at the end here, partly because it follows logically from the reports yesterday of almost 20% of Democrats deciding at the last minute, and partly because of … you know.
Any other theories Kaus left out? Did New Hampshire simply catch a fee-vah and the only prescription was, um, Hillary Clinton?
Update: I saw this mentioned somewhere last night but Matt Yglesias has it in graphic form. The polls got Obama’s final number right; it was simply that they underestimated Hillary, likely due to last-minute decisions breaking her way. More support for theory 3.
Update: The comeback to the comeback begins.
Update: Ambinder says some of Hillary’s senior aides didn’t even bother dressing up last night, thanks to their own internal poll telling them they’d lose by 11 points.
In The Know: Candidates Compete For Vital Idgit Vote
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We’re dealing with Democrats. Voters probably had different feelings during polls than during the actual primary.
jgapinoy on January 9, 2008 at 9:06 AM
So does this mean you are NOT going to break the comments down into pages in the future? I hope that is true. I hope that was just a temporary thing… because it really breaks the continunity of the comments and thus breaks the forum. No more multiple pages for comments please….. my two cents worth.
Maxx on January 9, 2008 at 9:08 AM
And doing it the other way breaks the site. Sorry.
Allahpundit on January 9, 2008 at 9:09 AM
2nd look at me as head web designer?
froghat on January 9, 2008 at 9:11 AM
Well, that’s your fault for letting all those new people in, isn’t it?
jk
SouthernDem on January 9, 2008 at 9:12 AM
I suspect the “young people talk but don’t actually go and vote” effect is responsible for the discrepancy between the polls and the actual voting.
This whole primary season is starting to remind me of the college football season. Too much talk by experts who are wrong half the time – especially when something is a “sure thing”.
forest on January 9, 2008 at 9:12 AM
Well… if your doing if for technical reasons… then that’s the way it’s got to be. Too bad though… sure is better all on one page.
Maxx on January 9, 2008 at 9:13 AM
Chrissy Mathews on Morning Joe said it was the typical lying racist democrat (Robert Byrd wing?) that lied to pollsters about choosing Obama. And we thought all the racists resided in the GOP.
roninacreage on January 9, 2008 at 9:14 AM
Feedback on the new site design:
1. The shading on the Headlines section makes it hard to read the headlines…and I have 20/10 vision.
2. I like the blue hyperlinks better than the red ones. This should change on the ‘All Headlines’ page, too.
3. Comment ‘pages’ may make large threads more manageable and save the site from crashing, but if you’re not going to keep track of what comments each person has already seen, have them default to the page of the first comment, not the most recent page of comments.
James on January 9, 2008 at 9:15 AM
Although all 4 theories are plausible, I tend to lean towards #1. I’ve gotten a distinct vibe from some Obama supporters that his ethnicity is equally important compared to his policies/experience. They want people to know how nuanced they are that they would vote a black man for president. That’s a piss-poor reason to vote for someone.
Obama’s win in Iowa may have been the jolt that voters across the country needed to reflect on their reasons to support a candidate.
natesnake on January 9, 2008 at 9:16 AM
Is it just me or does Obama have a horseface?
froghat on January 9, 2008 at 9:18 AM
Polling has become entertainment and has long since strayed from a scientific endeavor. The production of even more mathematical garbage by money-minded pollsters will continue to confuse the public and distort reality.
rplat on January 9, 2008 at 9:18 AM
I was struck by the comment totals in the last 48 hours. Just amazing numbers. Good for you guys.
Jaibones on January 9, 2008 at 9:19 AM
I agree with this. Personally speaking, when I visit a new post, I like to at least scan the comments from the beginning. I would rather not make a point that has already been made. Defaulting to the last page of the comments discourges people from reviewing the previous comments before they make their’s. Not a good thing in my opinion.
Maxx on January 9, 2008 at 9:20 AM
If voters at the last minute went from Edwards to Clinton, maybe all that is happening is that they had a choice in their minds between Hillary and Edwards (both experienced politicians) and decided to cast their vote for someone who could actually win.
bnelson44 on January 9, 2008 at 9:22 AM
I like the last part of #1 – a not-so-subtle hint that those New Hampshirites might be a bit behind on the whole civil rights thing. If they didn’t vote for the black man, why, they must be racist!
Laserjock on January 9, 2008 at 9:23 AM
Ah the idgits, the core huckabee demographic.
liberrocky on January 9, 2008 at 9:23 AM
I don’t think this is the first time the pollsters have blown it. I just think that relying on polls will be a definite way to fail in what you’re doing–whether it is being President or predicting the races!!!
rightwingpastor on January 9, 2008 at 9:27 AM
How about the Sharpton-Jackson theory? Obama was getting way too “uppity” for White America and had to be put back in his place on the plantation. I put forward this theory in jest but guaranteed, if Obama continues to fall behind, somebody in the race industry will bring this one up.
More interesting to me is going to be whether Clinton and Obama leave room for a possible Clinton/Obama ticket in 2008. It appears now that both sides are more likely to go to scorched earth ground war strategy than anything more collaborative.
highhopes on January 9, 2008 at 9:29 AM
I sent you guys an e-mail on the possible reasons for the FUBAR CSS… At the tips@hotair.com address. FYI.
Seixon on January 9, 2008 at 9:39 AM
None of the above. Since NH is an “open” primary, and 40+% of the voters are registered as independents meaning they can vote either Dem or Rep — the answer is simple. Since Obama was identifed as leading by more than 10 points in polling, voters who would have voted for Obama figured “why waste my vote, he is going to win big anyway” — and they voted AGAINST Romney by voting for McCain. (Who has no money and zero chance of winning the Southern conservative vote.)
SunSword on January 9, 2008 at 9:40 AM
Idjit voters. Brilliant!
Frozen Tex on January 9, 2008 at 9:41 AM
Bradley effect (see Wiki):Inaccurate voter polling in campaign between white candidate and non-white. Statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, while exhibiting different behavior when casting ballots. Hmmmmmm Might need to change how the exit polling data is weighted.
snowcrash on January 9, 2008 at 9:44 AM
It really doesn’t work to have all the comments on one page? meh…Yeah, it was much easier to scan the comments the old way, but I guess all that good new traffic makes it necessary.
Ah, I pine for the old days….like yesterday…
JetBoy on January 9, 2008 at 9:44 AM
I do believe this is your problem, in the file /hotair.com/wp/wp-content/themes/hotair/style.css:
It should be:
This makes Firefox ignore any CSS after this part, which is why most of the background images (defined later in the stylesheet) get ignored. Firefox is very sensitive to CSS-errors, while others browsers manage to feel out what you actually meant.
Seixon on January 9, 2008 at 9:46 AM
JetBoy, haven’t you heard, change is good.
snowcrash on January 9, 2008 at 9:46 AM
So according to Matthews, whenever a Black person runs for office, if you don’t vote for them, you are a racist? Wonderful. Apparently how the candidate stands on issues means nothing anymore, it’s all about color. That race card is getting awfully worn out these days.
katieanne on January 9, 2008 at 9:51 AM
I agree about the default page for comments being the first page.
sarahk on January 9, 2008 at 9:56 AM
Yes… when you house burns down…. be happy, because that is “change” and change is always good.
The “change” is always good crowd, are there any bigger morons to be found on the planet ? I don’t think so.
Maxx on January 9, 2008 at 9:57 AM
As one of those noobs who entered when the door was left open and perhaps contributing to the surge in comments, I promise never to post again, for the benefit of all HA’ers.
AverageJoe on January 9, 2008 at 9:58 AM
Sorry. I know I made a promise, but these are new times. We need change. I have found my voice.
(Does this make me a democrat?)
AverageJoe on January 9, 2008 at 10:00 AM
Aaaah… Change is good! So, when my grandfather died this summer, and my fiance’s dad had a stroke 4 days before Christmas, these were just examples of change, therefore… these were good things! Excellent! I feel better now…
Frozen Tex on January 9, 2008 at 10:06 AM
I vented my spleen last night on another Hot Air board last night, so I don’t want to do it here.
But I definitely think it’s #1 – and I actually thought of the “Reverse Bradley” effect in Iowa as well. I truly believe that if this was a secret ballot with the same people, the results would have been different. Maybe not significantly different, but different.
asc85 on January 9, 2008 at 10:07 AM
Yay! The homepage is fixed! Well done guys… although, I thought the change was good, wasn’t it?
Frozen Tex on January 9, 2008 at 10:08 AM
I went over to “Lazy Fred’s” place to leave him some *change* and, darned if he ain’t *changed* his pickup truck. LOL For me, it is the values. He is touting the values that I like. In the primaries, I will vote for him and only him. The general is a different animal altogether and is 10 months down the “dirt” road.
annexwcp on January 9, 2008 at 10:14 AM
I didn’t watch the polls because there were too many and at around lunch time, I was in a waiting room waiting on my Dad when about 6 of us busted out laughing after hearing the news anchor say Obama was up in a poll..between 11 an 20 points…
Hot Air needs to do what it needs to do to keep the site running smoothly for all. I saw the page beak last night, not ideal, but I must admit, I spend a lot of time going up and down the same page when the comments get into the higher numbers..6 of one half dozen of the other..at least we can comment.
Pam on January 9, 2008 at 10:14 AM
Is this a legitimate argument to outlaw exit polling?
csdeven on January 9, 2008 at 10:20 AM
All my troubles seem so far away…
As to the polls, I think that people were influenced by the polls. I thought people would come out in greater numbers to really underline Obama’s surge, but I think rather they wanted to be impactful. Thus, I am of the opinion that many of them who were thinking either Obama or Mac went to McCain. I would love to know how many indies in NH have voters remorse this morning.
Spirit of 1776 on January 9, 2008 at 10:21 AM
You know guys, we can fix this ourselves. From now on anytime you are asked what your vote was….LIE! Pretty soon these predictions that manipulate the outcome will have no effect on what people really want to do.
I wonder how many people regret their vote for McCain now that Hillary has won?
csdeven on January 9, 2008 at 10:22 AM
Spirit….Heh….Great minds think alike?
csdeven on January 9, 2008 at 10:23 AM
Maybe they voted for Clinton because Obama said, “change” three or four hundred times too often while Clinton only said it eighty or ninety times too often.
snaggletoothie on January 9, 2008 at 10:24 AM
Heh. More than once.
Spirit of 1776 on January 9, 2008 at 10:32 AM
Or was it the Weekend at Bernie’s effect? Check the polls and see if those voters were actually alive.
amkun on January 9, 2008 at 10:34 AM
The site was visited by the ghost of amish-past last night?
burnitup on January 9, 2008 at 10:44 AM
The Literary Digest would be proud of the NH polls. The results were in the same league. All this really proves is that voters don’t always tell pollsters the truth. We normally seem to have too many polls but this time around its a new one we don’t need every hour.
duff65 on January 9, 2008 at 10:57 AM
Remember when the networks had egg on their face in 2000 and they were going to stop reporting these as often? They used the polls to call races?
They must not remember…
Pam on January 9, 2008 at 10:57 AM
Don’t think they’ll team up. Obama has tasted victory — he really wants this now.
Cuffy Meigs on January 9, 2008 at 10:58 AM
Is this a legitimate argument to outlaw exit polling?
csdeven on January 9, 2008 at 10:20 AM
A legitimate argument might be that polling data can effect the way people vote and should not be allowed.
duff65 on January 9, 2008 at 11:01 AM
Maybe they got their exit polls and fabricated voter list mixed up?
Hening on January 9, 2008 at 11:04 AM
I thought of that and also the early result reporting during general elections, but I don’t know how we can stop that. Once we cast our vote, the election folks control it.
csdeven on January 9, 2008 at 11:19 AM
I still can’t get over everyone being surprised the pollsters and pundits had it worng. My goodness people. Wake the he11 up. They’ve got it completely wrong for years and years. Pollsters are just another tool for the steering committess. Influence, influence and when in doubt buy some more influence. When asked who’s going to win try to influence with your answer. When influence doesn’t work try some more influence. Influence, influence, influence.
Let’s try real hard not to be surprised next time they get it wrong. Like tomorrow or an hour from now.
Griz on January 9, 2008 at 11:26 AM
What kind of joint are you running here?!
sonnyspats1 on January 9, 2008 at 11:36 AM
I think you are right. He made a comment this morning about how he was glad that the NH results meant he’d have to earn his nomination. What he didn’t say (but clearly meant) by that comment was essentially “Bring it on Biotch“
highhopes on January 9, 2008 at 11:39 AM
Wouldn’t outlawing the release of polling data go against that whole “Freedom of Expression” part of the Constitution? Not to mention flying in the face of over 200 years of the way politics have been practiced.
I think the flaw in recent elections is that the models used by the pollsters are out-of-touch with the American public. They assume past trends will continue at a time when voters are more likely to be “independent” or jump parties. They assume identity voting blocs (blacks will vote for Obama, for example).
Most importantly, the pollsters and pundits really don’t get the Evangelical Movement and make assumptions instead of bothering trying to tap into a very significant part of the electorate. Put another way, the “Jesus Freaks” vote while the twentysomething slackers do not. Nevertheless, the polling pays more attention to the slackers than the “Jesus Freaks.” It is for this reason Mike Huckabee is a complete mystery to far too many people who are paid very well to be accurate in their forecasting.
highhopes on January 9, 2008 at 11:49 AM
that videois hilarious, but so true.
lots of IDGIT now days, on both sides.
thanks Oprah.
jimmer on January 9, 2008 at 11:57 AM
If you think about it, how can supposedly logical systems that measure choices based on reason, as polls are supposed to be, measure the emotion and passion that seems to revolve around the Obama campaign. Maybe that is what went wrong…
kylun on January 9, 2008 at 1:14 PM
I still think it was us bloggers who took down Hussein O yesterday…telling the frightening truth about him on hundreds of sites. You’re all very welcome! :)
I’m not saying the Hildebeast will be a pushover but Hussein O needs to be stopped.
They’re already playing the race card in a big way….even some so called conservatives(obama supporters) on this site try to shut any and all criticism of BHO because obviously any criticism of obama is automatically rascist according to them.
HaraldHardrada on January 9, 2008 at 4:37 PM
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