Rumor du jour: Hillary thinking of skipping Nevada and SC, forming “Anybody But Obama” 527 group; Update: Worst idea evah?
posted at 3:13 pm on January 8, 2008 by Allahpundit
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The sourcing’s hazy (one Clinton aide is quoted arguing against the idea but no one’s cited as being in favor) and I’m suspicious of HuffPo hitting her from her left to Obama’s obvious advantage. But if she gets crushed tonight, what’s the sense in going on a national defeat tour? She’s guaranteed to win New York on Big Tuesday; if she turns that day into Hillary’s Last Stand, she can squeeze a little “comeback kid” magic out of the press and maybe get her fundraisers to go all in. The task at this point is simply to survive until then and pour whatever money she has into the other Big Tuesday states. Skipping Nevada and SC ensures that she can do that. Losing badly in them, maybe not.
The Clinton campaign has raised over $100 million, but has “only” $15 to $20 million left. It faces donor reluctance to give more in the face of the Iowa defeat and the prospect of a second loss in New Hampshire today. Even worse, the campaign fears defections among those fundraisers who want to be with a winner and who might be easily persuaded to support Barack Obama…
Both states look like probable defeats for Clinton. South Carolina has a large black electorate that is now likely to back Obama by wide margins, and the Democratic primary is open to all voters, including independents and Republicans, two other groups that in Iowa backed Obama decisively. Clinton had looked fully competitive in Nevada, but Obama’s victories have boosted his chances there and now he appears almost certain to get the endorsement of the powerful Culinary Workers Union.
Arguing against pulling out of South Carolina and Nevada are Clinton aides who say that bowing out now would guarantee four defeats in a row - Iowa, N.H. lost at the ballot box, and South Carolina. and Nevada given up by default - would be a disastrous precursor to the February 5 contests. “You’ve got to put some points on the board. You can’t just let the other guys run up the score and expect to come back in the fourth quarter,” one Clinton aide said.
The other nugget, in the “too bad to check” vein, is that her major fundraisers are supposedly thinking of starting a 527 they’re calling the … “Anybody But Obama Committee.” The guy who’s drawing record turnouts among Dems and independents is so dangerous and unqualified that we should elect anybody but him? Good luck, Hillary.
I don’t know how she turns this around. If Obama was in, say, Huck’s position vis-a-vis Mitt, where he’s got a victory or two but no money then she could try to outspend him. As it is, he’s got more cash on hand than she does and is likely to be swimming in it on Big Tuesday, especially if he doesn’t have to spend as much time campaigning in Nevada and South Carolina. Barring some sort of major scandal — which she’ll just be blamed for leaking anyway — it seems the air’s out of the balloon.
In the meantime, Karol’s drinking in the daytime again.
Update: Hotline says this would be suicide for Hillary. This point is especially sharp:
First, she’d be accused of alienating minority voters. The main reason the DNC voted to move up the votes in SC and NV was to give the two largest minority voting groups, hispanics and African-Americans, a larger voice in the race. Hispanics in NV and black voters in SC. Ignoring these states would easily be read as a decision to ignore those voters, who also happen to live in large numbers in 2/5 states like NY, NJ, IL and CA.
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Has George Soros come out supporting Hussein? If so, it is over !
I told my husband 2 months ago it wouldn’t be Hillary but I at least thought there would be a contest!
Oh, and Bill’s legacy. PUT SOME ICE ON IT BILL & HILL.
stenwin77 on January 8, 2008 at 3:19 PM
So I can go thru the large drum of popcorn I got for Christmas.
Weight of Glory on January 8, 2008 at 3:19 PM
Because she’ll never give up…she believes she’s entitled to the job and if not for all those damn voters getting in her way, she’d have it.
James on January 8, 2008 at 3:20 PM
Seems a little farfetched, but I wouldn’t put it past the Couple of Vindiction.
MadisonConservative on January 8, 2008 at 3:23 PM
Heh. Yeah, I don’t see retirement on the horizon for Hillary. Running for Gov. of NY? Maybe. Calling it a day, no way.
Spirit of 1776 on January 8, 2008 at 3:25 PM
I have no idea whether any of that’s true, but there is some half-logic in it.
1. She stays in NV and SC. Dems allot delegates by proportional representation, so she gets something out of it;
2. She walks away with Michigan and likely Florida, where candidates have stayed away in the DNC-flap;
3. She has a shot at most of the big states on Super-Duper Tuesday, and states with closed primaries;
4. She tries to keep pledged delegates and superdelegates in her camp;
5. Attacking Obama directly hurts her if she wins, and the party in general if she loses. Do it through a 527 or 501(c)(4).
Karl on January 8, 2008 at 3:26 PM
I don’t remember where I saw this, but Hil’s money problems go a bit deeper.
A lot of her donors, maybe even most, have already maxed out their donations - they can’t give any more. Whereas Obama gets a lot more of his cash from small donations. He can go to those people and get more cash where Hillary really can’t.
Number 2 on January 8, 2008 at 3:26 PM
Hillaryous!
someguy on January 8, 2008 at 3:26 PM
Remember, Florida has been stripped of their delegates.
Oh my, it is not looking good for
Hitler, um I mean Hillary.stenwin77 on January 8, 2008 at 3:28 PM
If she’s not elected, she’ll still show up for the
coronationDave from Flint on January 8, 2008 at 3:30 PM
I predict Hillary will press on.
She has to.
For the children.
Always Right on January 8, 2008 at 3:30 PM
It’s hard to say how she could really stop his momentum because there is a genuine groundswell of support around Obama right now. I think one of Hillary’s only hopes is to maybe cast doubt on Barack’s “message of hope and unity” that is his big draw. Hillary should question him directly about his church, statements from leaders at his church, and all his pointless “present” votes in the Senate (that represents the “change” you’re talking about?) She needs to pound that he talks the talk but his record shows he really hasn’t walked the walk. If people start doubting his ability or the sincerity of his message, that might draw some votes back to Hillary who could be seen in a new light as the one who can really make impactful change and define what that change is. She needs to define what change is, otherwise people will just be hypnotized by Barack’s vague poetry.
mattyj86 on January 8, 2008 at 3:31 PM
See where Hillary messed up was she started talking about HESELF and not the Issues.
It started with the “experience” thing and went the road of “cackle more, Cry more, Humanize more”
Hillary would have won if she had stuck to her guns on Health care and other dem social issues. Instead she made the mistake of making it about her personally vs Obama. And found out she isnt that likible.
William Amos on January 8, 2008 at 3:33 PM
More tears please! MORE TEARS!
I want to see a frog-strangling downpour “Nancy Kerrigan-Why Me?-Why Me?” display that will bring down the house!
Brat on January 8, 2008 at 3:34 PM
So let me get this straight. The Clintons are losing in the Democratic primary and growing irritated with members of their party. Hillary might go negative against a popular, charismatic senator in a desperate bid for victory and in addition, they are growing petulant and whiny at their impending loss and show no sign of losing with grace and dignity.
.
.
.
Pinch me now. This is fantastic.
Slublog on January 8, 2008 at 3:35 PM
This is exactly what the Democrats deserve for allowing Independents to vote on their primary.
crosspatch on January 8, 2008 at 3:38 PM
I expect Hillary to lurch soon to the far left and exploit the Netroots’ displeasure with Obama. Nutroots have the money and hate-driven energy to revive her campaign, and I’m betting she’ll go after it.
petefrt on January 8, 2008 at 3:40 PM
You are on to something there. We, the people, already know who Hillary is. Making it about her forces us to support her based on her personality and personal connection to the people. Problem is that nobody likes her- even those that would vote for her as the Democrat nominee. Then Hillary, the woman that didn’t show any emotion when it became known that her spouse was screwing interns, expects us to believe it when she sobs for the cameras? Lots of luck with that.
highhopes on January 8, 2008 at 3:40 PM
Too early to gloat, too soon to count the Clintons out, need to figure out if Obama will be a formidible threat in the general election based on popularity alone.
That being said, all the long-overdue Clinton bashing does my dark heart good.
highhopes on January 8, 2008 at 3:42 PM
True, I don’t want to jinx anything. I’ll celebrate their current woes, though.
Slublog on January 8, 2008 at 3:45 PM
This is just FANTASTIC!!
The only thing that would make it better is if Hill does what Rush theorized and goes third-party/independant and draws votes away from Obama. Justice will finally be served for the Perot fiasco.
crazy_legs on January 8, 2008 at 3:45 PM
Will the Clintons resort to blaming Ken Starr?When will the Clintons resort to blaming Ken Starr?
fogw on January 8, 2008 at 3:48 PM
This on the same day “9 year old girl” Paul Begala and Jim “The Cutthroat Cueball” Carville are rumored to be “comming on board” (because they weren’t already- swear to God!)…
Evita’s in trouble and she’s bringing the old gang(sters) back in force to avoid becomming a punchline.
To quote Dennis Miller “[Obama] better keep his head on a swivel, because crossing the Clintons is like going over the middle on Ronnie Lott….”
SuperCool on January 8, 2008 at 3:49 PM
Ken Starr. lol
Richard Bushnell on January 8, 2008 at 3:49 PM
Hillary wont run third party. She still wants the dem nomination.
But I would put it pst her to torpedo Obama. She would want to run again in 2012 and she cant do that if Obama is sitting president. So look for Hillary to do something like back Cynthia McKinney as a green financially to draw votes off of Barak. And she will lean on Bloomberg to not run and back this scheme.
William Amos on January 8, 2008 at 3:49 PM
Bill Clinton already has.
highhopes on January 8, 2008 at 3:49 PM
Florida Dem’s lost half of their delegates
hpk1942 on January 8, 2008 at 3:51 PM
I predict Obama and Hillary strike some sort of agreement wherein he becomes Prime Minister and she is made Queen.
saint kansas on January 8, 2008 at 3:54 PM
Methinks the stock market is voting.
swami on January 8, 2008 at 3:55 PM
Maybe the Clintons will be the 3rd party.
Huckabee (R)
Obama (D)
Clinton/Bloomber (I)
Discuss
Entelechy on January 8, 2008 at 3:56 PM
Bloomberg (I)
Also, substitute any for the (R), and
Discuss
Entelechy on January 8, 2008 at 3:57 PM
Remember Hillary is 60 right now and if Barak wins the Presidency that means Hillary cant run in 2012. So the next Preisdentual election is 2016 and she would be 68 then.
She needs Barak to fail if she fails to win the nomination.
William Amos on January 8, 2008 at 3:57 PM
IT BURNS WITH THE HEAT OF A THOUSAND SUNS!
Clinton spits the Barack vote and we end up with manic minister.
BKennedy on January 8, 2008 at 3:58 PM
Sounds like she needs “Stormin” Norman Hsu to bundle up some small donations for her. Except Norm is doing 3 years. There must be someone else of Chinese extraction they can count on,…you know,..from the old days.
a capella on January 8, 2008 at 3:58 PM
Why do you think she has any chance of winning in NY if she tanks in NH? I bet people in NY are even more tired of the Clintons than the rest of us.
Clark1 on January 8, 2008 at 4:00 PM
You mean Bloomberg splits it, don’t you? The end results still burn the same.
a capella on January 8, 2008 at 4:02 PM
That works for me, too.
crazy_legs on January 8, 2008 at 4:03 PM
Bkennedy, we agree. Btw, I’ll vote for your guy. What if he’d be at the top, in that scenario?
Entelechy on January 8, 2008 at 4:03 PM
Game. Set. Match?
BacaDog on January 8, 2008 at 4:04 PM
I think that’s the first time I fixed you Entelechy.
fogw on January 8, 2008 at 4:07 PM
Hillary/Bloomberg as an independent team?? Could even get two egos that big is the same room without thermonuclear fission occurring?
Hiwever, if it did come off that way, throw in a brokered GOP convention and I’m going to get rich investing in popcorn futures.
michaelo on January 8, 2008 at 4:08 PM
News flash! Mike Huckabee was asked about Barack and he said: “Barak was a very good Prime Minister. I met him in Tel Aviv ten years ago.”
Just kidding!
Larraby on January 8, 2008 at 4:08 PM
IntheNet on January 8, 2008 at 4:09 PM
No, Florida Reps lost half their delegates.
Florida Dems lost ALL their delegates.
Florida isn’t anything now but a popularity contest, you can’t win anything tangible.
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_17_117.aspx
January 7th, 2008.
gekkobear on January 8, 2008 at 4:11 PM
“Has George Soros come out supporting Hussein? If so, it is over !”
stenwin77 on January 8, 2008 at 3:19 PM
Yes. George Soros is the primary guy behind Hussein Obama’s campaign.
HaraldHardrada on January 8, 2008 at 4:11 PM
Then I’d be extremely pleased that Bloomberg broke up Barack’s voters and Romney wins either with a majority, or more likely, a plurality. Bloomberg is big only in New York, which usually goes Dem anyway so it’s no loss. He might even siphon off enough in Mass. for a Romney win, but I doubt it. (Even still, with 12 electoral votes Mass. could be helpful if Romney wins it.)
BKennedy on January 8, 2008 at 4:13 PM
Do the Dems have a primary vote in Beijing or Shanghai?
If not, Hillary for President is dead.
gabriel sutherland on January 8, 2008 at 4:14 PM
I think you’re onto something…
Obama/ Richardson (D)
Hillary (Pres)/Bloomberg (VP) Independent ticket
Huck/ Bruce Willis (VP) (R)
Who wins?
faraway on January 8, 2008 at 4:15 PM
You forgot:
Alien/Predator (X)
NOW who wins ??
Always Right on January 8, 2008 at 4:16 PM
It would be insane for Hillary to quit while she still has money in the bank and a lead (or very recent lead) in the national polls. Regardless of what lines of attack her campaign develops, directly or indirectly, she can also look for the Rs and others to start directing their fire at BO now that he’s the D front-runner. Even if the others can’t be counted on to t shoot their whole wads, she’ll feel she owes it to herself and her supporters to stick around until it’s clear that he’s going to weather that storm, and otherwise handle the spotlight and any early-onset buyer’s remorse. If there’s any dirt to throw at him that’s too nasty for her campaign to spew on their own, aren’t they supposed to be past masters at getting it out anyway?
CK MacLeod on January 8, 2008 at 4:17 PM
I would like to see an analysis of why all these other states moved their primaries up to Super T. Sure, they wanted to “count,” but does it help Democrats or Republicans? I suspect Dems, or the CA legislators would never have voted for it.
PattyJ on January 8, 2008 at 4:18 PM
First, Huck would have VP Chuck Norris.
Second: Probably Huck still. Hillary and Barack just split up so much of the Dem base and left-leaning independents than Huck wins with pretty much evangelicals alone.
BKennedy on January 8, 2008 at 4:18 PM
Alien and Predator would be too busy slaughtering each other. Also, Predator won that fight IIRC, so he’s definetely top of the ticket.
BKennedy on January 8, 2008 at 4:20 PM
My vote will be for Jack Daniels. Seriously, if that’s the choice, I’ll be drinking like a fish.
MadisonConservative on January 8, 2008 at 4:21 PM
NellE on January 8, 2008 at 4:24 PM
Allah your political chops are among the very best… that said, i’m not so sure she actually will win NY on Super2sday…. This BHO thing is snowballing….
max1 on January 8, 2008 at 4:25 PM
Geraghty’s reporting this story now, too.
crazy_legs on January 8, 2008 at 4:25 PM
Well, I don’t drink much MadisonC, but I get your lushitude.
Entelechy on January 8, 2008 at 4:26 PM
In the meantime, Karol’s drinking in the daytime again.
So you see her, what, being a lifelong senator? C’mon. The ultimate goal of her being senator was to become president. Without that, she’s just one of a hundred. And Hil is no 1/100th of anything!
AND THERE’S NOTHING WRONG WITH DRINKING IN THE DAYTIME. :-)
Karol on January 8, 2008 at 4:30 PM
Allah says: “She’s guaranteed to win New York on Big Tuesday.”
May have to revisit that in a coupla days, AP. At the rate she’s imploding, all bets are off.
Cuffy Meigs on January 8, 2008 at 4:31 PM
Dude, lets hope that doesn’t happen.
As for Clinton trying to destroy Obama’s campaign, from her perspective, she may as well try to, given her mindset, her insatiable craving for power.
If she loses the primary, she may as well try and take down Obama’s campaign too, the one thing she’s wanted more than anything else for over twenty years, and Obama and the Democrat voters are taking it away from her.
doubleplusundead on January 8, 2008 at 4:31 PM
One thing that a lot of people are forgetting is how much pressure Hillary can put on people within the Democratic Party. Don’t be surprised to find party officials publicly backing away from Obama when whatever “surprise” dirt she has on him drops.
She’s about to start twisting arms.
lodestonejames on January 8, 2008 at 4:33 PM
Don’t forget… there was a poll out before the 2006 election that said NY-ers wanted her for a second term, but wanted her to finish it and not run for President. In other words, NY may not be all that happy with Evita right now.
crazy_legs on January 8, 2008 at 4:34 PM
Bush lost to McCain by 18 points in the 2000 NH primary; so does this mean Clinton can survive a similar beating tonight?
Their are similarities: Bush was the establishment candidate, McCain the insurgent. However, Bush was relatively unknown and succeeded in reinventing himself. McCain had a record to attack. In contrast, Hillary cannot reinvent herself; we know her all too well. Also, Obama doesn’t have much of a record. There is very little for the Clintons to get their teeth into.
I don’t see how Hillary can win this, unless she really does have some dirt on Obama.
infidel65 on January 8, 2008 at 4:34 PM
Lets face it. Most American men would get re-circumcised with a dull butterknife on a roller-coaster before they would vote for Hillary Clinton.
She still has some dirty tricks hidden away in a place where only she has the keys to. I think that’s HA’s chastity belt.
Bikerken on January 8, 2008 at 4:36 PM
Poor NY. I hope they flatter themselves for getting a Clinton as Senator. It’s only because they had a junior Senator position open up in 2000 that she’s there. If it’d had been CA, FL, or MA, she’d have been there instead.
New York got hosed.
Techie on January 8, 2008 at 4:36 PM
To think of the many innocent women lives she ruined for being victims of her husband’s forced wanderings and fail this early.
jukin on January 8, 2008 at 4:36 PM
I live here in New Hampshire and I gotta say it is a distinct pleasure watching the HildeBeast go down in flames, especially to such an empty suit.
I guess given the choice between a likeable empty suit and an unlikeable empty pantsuit, the likeable empty suit wins.
She is gonna lose by 11-14 points.
mountainmanbob on January 8, 2008 at 4:37 PM
That’s affirm, Houston.
wccawa on January 8, 2008 at 4:38 PM
Lots of girly-men out there. Lots of ‘em.
fogw on January 8, 2008 at 4:39 PM
I always found Jack Daniels to be just another pawn of the infamous Captain Morgan, that boorish scallywag.
BKennedy on January 8, 2008 at 4:41 PM
Heh.
As for Hill being a lifetime Senator, had she been content with her position and made a career in a Senate, she could have been a very powerful force, she tried for the presidency, and I think its too late to go back, I think New York will reject her if a strong Democrat comes up behind her.
doubleplusundead on January 8, 2008 at 4:42 PM
Good idea
Richard Bushnell on January 8, 2008 at 5:02 PM
Kucinich/Clinton????
I thought he already dropped out…
brtex on January 8, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Yeah, if only events on our side weren’t just as bad as these are good…
someone on January 8, 2008 at 5:14 PM
Rush Limbaugh deserves a lot of recognition here. He has been saying for months that this whole inevitability thing was bull and he pointed out why. She is not a likable person. She’s not charming bill. She is only going to get dirtier and dirtier until she melts into a puddle of bubbling oil.
Bikerken on January 8, 2008 at 5:23 PM
But Hillary has to win. She’s the most vetted candidate out there. Obama has skeletons, skeletons I tell ya.
AverageJoe on January 8, 2008 at 5:25 PM
This election cycle has been going on for a long, long time, and I was just about burnt out on the whole thing…but:
Just as I was trying to get out, they suck me back in!
/godfather
Agreed (and giggling like an excited school girl).
Timothy S. Carlson on January 8, 2008 at 5:32 PM
Now, when I was in college, the reason I was told I was a racist for identifying myself as a Republican was the southern strategy of the Nixon campaign. When Hillary mounts her own southern strategy, how does the media and intelligentsia spin it. Hmmmm.
cherokeejeff on January 8, 2008 at 5:34 PM
I have beer. I have popcorn. I am ready! Is this the HotAir Tavern?
petefrt on January 8, 2008 at 5:59 PM
Naww, Always Right did not forget: Alien/Predator = Clinton/Bloomberg
Same difference.
tballard on January 8, 2008 at 6:13 PM
Memorable. Pithy, too. :)
petefrt on January 8, 2008 at 6:48 PM
Those upthread who think that Florida Dems are stripped of their delegates — dream on.
Karl on January 8, 2008 at 8:16 PM
Comeback kiddette
Drunk Report on January 8, 2008 at 10:31 PM