Open thread: Primary results; Update: Silky staying in?
posted at 6:03 pm on January 8, 2008 by Allahpundit
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I don’t know when the exit polls are going to be released but the fact that CNN is starting to release stuff like this makes me think “soon.”
Something to ponder while we wait: Would an enormous Obama blowout on the Democratic side change your GOP primary vote at all? The bigger his victory, the more one has to start planning for him in the general. McCain and Huck match up reasonably well (although not all that well). Mitt, I think, less so.
Update: Fox News says 59% of independents are breaking towards Democrats, which means a big win for Obama. He’s leading Hillary 44-30 among them. Among independents voting Republican, McCain leads 37-26.
Evangelicals make up only 21% of the vote.
Update: More exit-poll mania from CNN. 18% of Dems and 15% of Republicans decide at the last minute. More good news for Obama, probably.
Update: Here’s Politico’s vote-count page. They did a crappy job with Iowa. Hopefully they’ve worked out the kinks.
Update: Is campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle the first woman overboard on the USS Clinton?
Update: The Politico page up above is showing very, very early results, although I don’t think we get any official tallies until 8 p.m. Expect Obama to be called the winner instantly and a too-close-to-call situation between McCain and Romney when the networks take to the air.
Update: Spare a thought for Rudy, who doesn’t otherwise figure into today’s proceedings. And that word is … crater.
Update: As of 7:35 ET, 4+% of the precincts have reported. Politico has results.
Update: No Hillary hate, no money.
I just got a call from a conservative marketing consultant I know. He is in a panic. “I am in the midst of a major crisis with a lot of people,” he said. “Hillary Clinton is going to die today. Do you know what that means for conservative fundraising all over America?”
Update: The exit polls are out. Good news for Hillary, per Fox News — Hillary’s within five and McCain leads Mitt by five.
Update: McCain staffers are very optimistic.
Update: An insider tells Geraghty that Hillary’s lead is somewhat misrepresentative and should correct itself over the course of the evening.
Update: Two races down, 48 states left to go, says Silky in his concession speech, hinting that he’s in it for the long haul. Juan Williams speculated earlier that he might stay in it as long as he can just to antagonize Hillary, the “status quo candidate.” That’s exceptionally stupid if true since he’s almost certainly pulling more from Obama than from Clinton. Call it a double victory for the Glacier if she pulls this one out.
Dean Barnett e-mails: “98% of America will get the opportunity to reject John Edwards! My turn will come on 1/29 – can’t wait!”
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Please hurry up and let’s get on with this thing!!!
jawbone on January 8, 2008 at 6:05 PM
so when do the polls actually close?
Tacitus on January 8, 2008 at 6:06 PM
Big S on January 8, 2008 at 6:06 PM
If the huge turnout is young, first-time voters, I think that means the GOP can just do the honorable thing and let the clock run out.
TexasDan on January 8, 2008 at 6:06 PM
When do the polls close?
And when might we start getting reports? And links to the pages? I hope the state GOP learned it’s lesson from Iowa’s GOP server meltdown….
Vanceone on January 8, 2008 at 6:06 PM
If that is true then McCain wins
William Amos on January 8, 2008 at 6:07 PM
Oh, and can we have a little celebratory thread somewhere about Ronnie Earle’s retirement?
TexasDan on January 8, 2008 at 6:08 PM
It’s going to be hard to tell who matches up well against him until the Obamagasm subsides, and it will.
I don’t think Mitt has the juice for a national bid, and Huck’s cute little act won’t be so cute if he’s the last line of defense.
The McAmnesty(tm) is, of course, what will stall the Straight Talk Xpress.
So, the short answer, I don’t have a damn clue…
Mindfists on January 8, 2008 at 6:09 PM
So lessee…..
we’ve got about 40% of the state is independant, I think. Of them, 60 Percent are going for Obama, so not a factor in the Republican side.
So that’s about 25% of the state voters are independant voting republican. Let’s say McCain gets 2 to one of them. That’s about 12 % boost to his numbers.
Is he down over twelve percent in republicans?
Vanceone on January 8, 2008 at 6:09 PM
Nope, and in fact, it would just solidify my current preferences, and even moreso, my AoSHQ position of “let the liberals take the fall for liberalism”.
thirteen28 on January 8, 2008 at 6:09 PM
Huck or McCain……………….I`d say McCain. Because even if he pampers the terrorists we capture, I think he`ll smack down the all the others.
Obama or Huckabee would sit them down for a nice chat and have a togetherness celebration.
ThePrez on January 8, 2008 at 6:10 PM
How about we scrap Huck and McCain and run an actual Republican? There’s no way we’d lose – it’s these shades of liberal-grey that will kill us.
emailnuevo on January 8, 2008 at 6:13 PM
Yep.
Fox’s Carl Cameron says McCain Aides were told by state officials that Independents were breaking almost evenly between Obama and their guy.
amerpundit on January 8, 2008 at 6:13 PM
I doubt Huck would capture terrorists in the first place.
Mormon Doc on January 8, 2008 at 6:13 PM
NH polls close at 20:00 ET
infidel65 on January 8, 2008 at 6:13 PM
My math is wrong somehow. Okay, There’s a total of 16% or so of the NH base as independants voting Republican.
Figure McShamnesty’s getting 66% of them. That’s about a ten percent boost McCain’s getting from independants.
Is that enough to outweigh the Republicans who despise the guy?
Vanceone on January 8, 2008 at 6:14 PM
I think the economy issue favors Mitt over McCain. Iraq and terrorism, McCain. Immigration, Mitt.
Even though the bulk of independents are going Obama’s way, enough are voting GOP that McCain may pull it off with room to spare. Depends on the actual Republican turnout.
(did I cover all bases?)
sulla on January 8, 2008 at 6:14 PM
NO WAY! If the economy is the biggest issue with Republicans, Maverick loses BIG!
malan89 on January 8, 2008 at 6:15 PM
Did anyone see the footage of Giuliani walking over and shaking Huckabee’s hand this morning? Can you say Vice Pres. Giuliani????
God forbid the Huckster get the nomination, but if he does I think Giuliani would be an excellent running mate.
The Hayekian on January 8, 2008 at 6:16 PM
Perhaps Huck will offer the children of terrorists in-state tuition. I mean, it`s not their fault their dad blew himself up for the jihad.
ThePrez on January 8, 2008 at 6:16 PM
I’m trying hard not to become a pro-Romney comment zombie, but I strongly believe Mitt’s a better opponent against Obama than a poorly funded RINO. Rather than looking to pick a defensive nominee (one who offsets Obama’s strengths: extreme likability, appeal to moderate Dems) who only feably matches up on those points anyway, why not pick a strong offensive nominee, whose strengths Obama simply can’t match (world-class leadership and problem-solving cred, a policy record that better and more credibly speaks to the base, and the only campaign purse that can outspend Obama)? Obama’s definitely experiencing “peak popularity” right now. For the first time, the Dems are truly coalescing around a single candidate. In 2004, the first time they did that (and got a little fanatical about their new beau), their candidate was Howard Dean. Even more so than Dean, Obama’s popularity bubble has the potential to completely deflate. As well-received as the “Hope and change” message has been, when the hero worship wears off a bit (whether that’s before or after the nomination is sealed up), what’s left is an almost comically inexperienced candidate, who (by virtue of his empty record) has been able to customize a relatively non-contradictory policy slate on the fly, and has done so by running far left around his primary primary opponent, leaving him with an extreme set of policies that will look a lot less reasonable when the dust settles and he’s compared with the Republican nominee. At his core, he’s a very “unserious” candidate, in terms of his capacity to undertake the Presidency. Huck and McCain are both more prepared than he, but not so aptly as Mitt. Briefly put, I’m averse to letting the Dem nominee affect my desired GOP nominee; I’m more of the mind that you nominate the objectively best/strongest and let the comparison shine through when they other side puts up an unsubstantial infatuant.
flip on January 8, 2008 at 6:17 PM
Huckabee and Giuliani would be the ideal recipe for liberal victory. Huckabee would have to answer to Giuliani’s pro-choice stance (Huck’s ‘evangelical’ roots would officially [and about ten years too late] sever their ties with him), and Giuliani would have to reconcile his overbearing candidate.
And, Giuliani would be able to one-up Bloomberg by being in the administration that outlaws smoking nationally.
emailnuevo on January 8, 2008 at 6:19 PM
“The Economy” is a proxy issue for all sorts of other ones. While you might think that someone with a lot of business experience would be strong among voters who cite “the economy” as their main concern, it’s just as likely that to them, the issue really means “cares about people like me”, which would disfavor Mitt. There’s really no way of telling in any one election which way “the economy” will break.
Big S on January 8, 2008 at 6:19 PM
The Audacity of
Hopea bunch of morons buying the medias Obamamania BS.RightWinged on January 8, 2008 at 6:19 PM
500,000 votes in a state with only about 1.3 million population. And this is just a primary!
infidel65 on January 8, 2008 at 6:20 PM
Should we prepare for the Obama/Oprah ticket?
“Double O watch ‘em go!”
bbz123 on January 8, 2008 at 6:21 PM
Fox also said that the 71 year old McCain leads among everyone 71 and younger, while Romney leads in 71 and older.
Complete7 on January 8, 2008 at 6:21 PM
Two through four amount to the same thing.
davidk on January 8, 2008 at 6:21 PM
How about an Obama/Osama ticket? Ted Kennedy would approve.
infidel65 on January 8, 2008 at 6:23 PM
Wow, if Illegal immigration is that low, Romney and Thompson are screwed.
froghat on January 8, 2008 at 6:23 PM
I’m with Fred all the way. It was expected to go this way in NH.
One step at a time
NickTx on January 8, 2008 at 6:24 PM
Looks like a bad night for Romney.
bnelson44 on January 8, 2008 at 6:26 PM
Thompson is not a factor in NH anyway because he skipped a scheduled appearance and never came back.
Not sure how much it’ll hurt Mitt, but could be decisive.
zoomzale on January 8, 2008 at 6:26 PM
bnelson44, Romney will have to add a few more bottles of hair gel to his hair if he gets whipped again. lol
froghat on January 8, 2008 at 6:27 PM
Not so fast, that’s just a percentage, we have absolutely no idea how large the voter pool of independents voting Republican actually is.
Medicated on January 8, 2008 at 6:29 PM
That’s independents voting Republican. Quite likely Mitt will do better amongst registered Republicans.
snickelfritz on January 8, 2008 at 6:29 PM
The top issue come November will be the economy and Mitt is the strongest on that issue. For all his faults, he comes across as someone who knows how to solve problems. He would nit-pick B.O. apart in a debate while Huck would try to out-platitude him. McCain, who looked like an angry, bitter old man compared to Romney, would look worse so against B.O.
Spolitics on January 8, 2008 at 6:29 PM
I think a Romney/ Thompson would be great
CaCa on January 8, 2008 at 6:29 PM
I don’t really think national polls head to head mean all that much. I mean, the election is probably only going to come down to a handful of states. Who knows though, maybe the dam breaks and nothing can stand in it’s way and a bunch of extra states go into play. Is there any candidate on the R side that can bring states Bush didn’t win into play?
Spirit of 1776 on January 8, 2008 at 6:30 PM
arguably the nail in Paul’s coffin was just found in the TNR thread, by Laguna Dave. be interesting to see how he does in NH.
jp on January 8, 2008 at 6:30 PM
In a head-to-head between McCain and Romney, I expect Romney to be a vastly stronger economic sell than McCain. I found his debate performance on that point was much, much stronger than McCain’s. Not necessarily the strongest of ALL the candidates, but of the top two contenders, yes.
That’s just me. Reasonable people can disagree.
sulla on January 8, 2008 at 6:30 PM
Personally, I hope McCain and Romney both drop out and put on a celebrity boxing match instead. McCain would probably bite Romney’s ear off. lol
froghat on January 8, 2008 at 6:32 PM
I’m expecting an Obama blowout no matter WHAT we do.
NickTx on January 8, 2008 at 6:33 PM
And they will. That’s exactly my point. The public’s interpretation of the country’s economic status is notoriously irrational, and a candidate’s stature as a successful businessman may not actually be a plus.
Big S on January 8, 2008 at 6:34 PM
Sen. Voinovich just said to FOX that Romney would be a better leader than McCain. I agree!
davenp35 on January 8, 2008 at 6:35 PM
Romney Thompson! yeah! That would be cool.
jawbone on January 8, 2008 at 6:35 PM
What was Romney’s approval rating in Mass? I have to think he’d have a shot at taking the state. And Obama might take Ill.
Spolitics on January 8, 2008 at 6:35 PM
If the independent’s trend holds among registered “rats” then Hillary loses by 14%. Lordy! Wonder how her people can spin that kind of loss into a sorta victory?
highhopes on January 8, 2008 at 6:38 PM
Romney is clearly the most intellectually capable candidate on either side of the political spectrum(this is why I support him) but he seems to have trouble connecting with the commoner. Huckster has it the other way around. He connects extremely well with the average joe, but is lacking in the smarts department. McCain strikes the balance between the two, and I think he’ll take NH by 3 points.
The Hayekian on January 8, 2008 at 6:38 PM
Romney is overqualified because most republicans presidents are stupid cowboys.
tomas on January 8, 2008 at 6:39 PM
Oh, man, I hope not. If Romney loses NH, I think he’s done. Then Fred’s our last hope.
Spolitics on January 8, 2008 at 6:39 PM
We along with family and friends believe illegal immigration is a big issue and if this party wishes to nominate a amnesty peddler like McCain so be it but we’ll all sit this one out if that’s the case!What would McCain and Obama debate about amnesty which one has the best amnesty plan and who could push it though the quickest to sell our country out to Mexico and Central America.No thank you!Sorry for the rant but many border security folks like us feel if it’s McCain no thanks!!
PTN 39 on January 8, 2008 at 6:40 PM
looks like Romney is in for the 2nd disappointment we all knew he’d face here
Drunk Report on January 8, 2008 at 6:42 PM
I find this to be very unlikely simply because Thompson doesn’t seem to be in it because of personal ambition (visible in his lack of energy and initiative). While personal ambition could lead someone to vie for the top spot, it could also lead them to take VP as a stepping stone. I don’t see him settling for such an impotent post (unless he’s another Dick).
Vagueperson on January 8, 2008 at 6:42 PM
People on here have gone over this a number of times. Romney won’t be done for a LONG time. He has the money and the delegates. FOX’s election day poll has him down only 1 point to McCain with progress obviously going to Romney very rapidly over the past few days.
davenp35 on January 8, 2008 at 6:43 PM
This sounds good Thompson and Mitt,but at the rate things are going!
canopfor on January 8, 2008 at 6:44 PM
Romney declares he’s riding it out til Mi–CBS NEWS just now
NickTx on January 8, 2008 at 6:44 PM
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/01/partisan-turnou.html
Good Riddance, Johnny Mac
Medicated on January 8, 2008 at 6:45 PM
One other thought re McCain or Romney vs. Obama (or Clinton or Edwards for that matter): no candidate with a Senate rank has defeated a Governor in a Presidential election since Benjamin Harrison (1888).
flip on January 8, 2008 at 6:45 PM
Coming out of Iowa, McCain was thought to have NH all wrapped up (remember all those silly photos of him grinning). If he loses NH, or if it is a narrow win, I think Mitt will have the momentum. NH was supposed to be the inevitable part for McCain; he can’t lose it and it won’t look good if it comes down to the wire.
Weight of Glory on January 8, 2008 at 6:45 PM
Indies breaking big for the Obaminator is good news for Mitt. They can’t vote of BHObama and for McC too, and Mac is depending on them in NH where 40% of registered voters are Indies.
I’m calling it a double digit win for his Barackness and a squeeker for Mittney.
DrW on January 8, 2008 at 6:45 PM
I wish Mitt would win NH and then hope that McShamnesty would drop and endorse Fred for Pete’s sake.
NickTx on January 8, 2008 at 6:47 PM
DrunkReport.com Official Projection:
Republicans
1) McCain
2) Romney
3) Huckabee
4) Giuliani
5) Paul
6) Thompson
Democrats
1) Obama
2) Clinton
3) Edwards
4) Richardson
Drunk Report on January 8, 2008 at 6:47 PM
actually I’m wrong, that ABC one says fewer independent went Democrat…. could be bad news for Mitt, but still just a percentage, we have no idea how large the voter pools are on either side of the independents. We’ll see…
Medicated on January 8, 2008 at 6:48 PM
Did you graduate high school? If so, how so? What a horrible approach to writing.
Do you care to be read by others? Get acquainted with the Enter key.
The Race Card on January 8, 2008 at 6:48 PM
Voinivich is a tool.
I’m surprised he wasn’t crying when he said that.
yo on January 8, 2008 at 6:48 PM
Mitt’s strong debate performance may be bearing fruit.
a capella on January 8, 2008 at 6:49 PM
Thanks for making me feel better. On ideology-alone I like Fred best, but after watching Romney in the debates, he led me to believe he might actually get some things done. McCain made me puke when he called big pharma the bad guys.
Spolitics on January 8, 2008 at 6:49 PM
Maybe Georgie-boy can campaign with Hillary.
Bah dum bump!!
thirteen28 on January 8, 2008 at 6:49 PM
Maggie Williams? Unthinkable. Where’s the middle/maiden name?
flip on January 8, 2008 at 6:49 PM
Well, with Fox reporting how well he did with seniors… this is relevant:
“In the Republican race, voters under age 30 account for fewer voters than on the Democratic side – just over one in 10. The previous high was 15 percent in 1992.”
Medicated on January 8, 2008 at 6:50 PM
I graduated from W’s (and HW’s) high school. How about you? Compelling ad hominem rebuttle of my Romney argument though.
flip on January 8, 2008 at 6:53 PM
If Romney loses tonight he is NOT done. However, he faces a similar problem Hillary does, in that he was SUPPOSED to win Iowa and NH. He was “inevitable” just like Hillary was supposed to be. So anything less than a gold medal in Iowa and NH is a loss for Romney. But he’s not done because he’ll still be leading in delegates, and still has that Scrooge McDuck swimming pool of money to keep going.
The Hayekian on January 8, 2008 at 6:53 PM
Romney’s poll numbers are going down faster than Monica Lewinsky at a frat party.
froghat on January 8, 2008 at 6:53 PM
I watched Michelle Obama Sun night on C-SPAN and she made reference to his background in Illinois politics. I think we are going to start to see some old skeletons come out of the closet here pretty soon.
TroubledMonkey on January 8, 2008 at 6:54 PM
GO Mike Gravel !
William Amos on January 8, 2008 at 6:56 PM
How about we scrap Huck and McCain and run an actual Republican? There’s no way we’d lose – it’s these shades of liberal-grey that will kill us.
emailnuevo on January 8, 2008 at 6:13 PM
Romney will move on if he’s 2nd. If Romney wins…..IS MCCAIN FINISHED? Answer that RINO’s!!!
DfDeportation on January 8, 2008 at 6:58 PM
Rudy would immediately bring several North East states into play.
The best candidates against Obama are probably: 1.)Rudy 2.)Mitt 3.)Huck.
I think McCain and Fred have trouble competing with Obama’s appeal to “change”, and would look a lot older when compared with Obama rather than Hillary. The other 3 have a shot.
dedalus on January 8, 2008 at 6:58 PM
You betcha… Bill Clinton is the master of this game. It’s nothing short of naive to underestimate them. They arent gonna “take the gloves off,” they’ll take the knives out. Don’t let your guard down.
Medicated on January 8, 2008 at 6:59 PM
By his own logic/comments he is.
Spolitics on January 8, 2008 at 6:59 PM
You keep saying this (or variations of it). What polls are you talking about? All the polls I see him in show him in strong positions.
davenp35 on January 8, 2008 at 6:59 PM
You should have gotten a second id yesterday for snarking people:
The Enter Key
pedestrian on January 8, 2008 at 7:00 PM
First returns on Politico very early
McCain 43.48
Romney 13.04
William Amos on January 8, 2008 at 7:02 PM
Alden Pyle on January 8, 2008 at 4:30 PM
davidk on January 8, 2008 at 7:02 PM
thats with 23 votes counted lol but still
William Amos on January 8, 2008 at 7:03 PM
http://www.politico.com/nhprimaries/nhmap-popup.html
Results coming in!!!!!
right now the % that matter is
McCain: 44%
Mitt: 13%
Probably some lefty counties reporting though… Paul has 17% :roll:
Micheal on January 8, 2008 at 7:03 PM
ITs only 0.66 reporting however
William Amos on January 8, 2008 at 7:04 PM
I think that might just be Dixville Notch + Hart’s Location (last night’s few dozen votes).
flip on January 8, 2008 at 7:04 PM
I sit here, amazed, at the disconnect of New Hampshire/Iowa with the rest of the country.
wccawa on January 8, 2008 at 7:05 PM
Anyone think McCain will beat Romney by double digits?
froghat on January 8, 2008 at 7:06 PM
I believe these are the counts from Dixville Notch from midnight. It’s about 30 miles north of Mt. Washington.
resqgal on January 8, 2008 at 7:06 PM
those same results have been up at http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=news08 for some time now.
Vagueperson on January 8, 2008 at 7:07 PM
Pretty impressive school. Also, hope you are wrong about the short-term market sentiment you recently posted, though I suspect not. Congrats on the marathon time.
dedalus on January 8, 2008 at 7:07 PM
McCain and Romney will be within 2 points one way or the other.
davenp35 on January 8, 2008 at 7:07 PM
My thoughts: “Effin-A-Right”
Medicated on January 8, 2008 at 7:08 PM
New update .99 %
MCCain 46%
Romney 14 %
William Amos on January 8, 2008 at 7:09 PM
No. Polls had them even going in, with Romney gaining momentum and I think both debates worked in his favor.
Spolitics on January 8, 2008 at 7:09 PM
Ron Paul is in 3rd place. lol
froghat on January 8, 2008 at 7:09 PM
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