New Hampshire: Predictions

Might as well start early. Obama’s up nine or more in almost every recent poll; he’s a lock, so keep your eye on Silky to see just how badly he flames out. He’s averaging 18 points in the RCP tally but the new Zogby has him down to 17 and a poll that came out yesterday put him at 15. If Obama peels off a bunch of his supporters and sends him to an especially humiliating third, maybe that gets him to thinking about getting out soon. Although as Kaus drolly notes, it’s not like he has anything else to do with his time.

I want to pick Mitt to surprise St. McCain, if only because I can’t imagine his early two-state strategy totally collapsing given his money advantage, but all the polls but one have him down and Maverick’s an 83% favorite on InTrade. So let’s say McCain wins narrowly, by two or three. Would that be good news or bad news for Fredheads? It would leave Moneybags especially weak in SC, but you’d also have McCain to contend with and so the anti-Huck vote that Fred’s trying to leverage could split three ways. If McCain loses today he may be out by then, leaving a three-way race — with Romney invigorated and ready to spend Fred into oblivion.

As you ponder, here’s a little Two Minutes McCain Hate from Kaus and See-Dub. And here’s Byron York wondering why Mitt still hasn’t settled on an identity after a year of campaigning and tens of millions of dollars spent.

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