Is Hillary going to win this thing? Update: Diebold! Update: Hillary rebounds among women
posted at 9:21 pm on January 8, 2008 by Allahpundit
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A steady four-point lead with fully one-third of precincts of reporting. Geraghty’s source says the early result is misrepresentative, but Michael Barone thinks she’s in the game and there’s some word of exit polls being “re-weighted.”
Has the Second Coming of the Messiah already been aborted? And if so, how many times are we going to hear the “15 percent lie” cited as an explanation tomorrow? Looks like America might be racist again.
Update: Obama’s already cut it to two in the past few minutes. Any loss within single digits will be spun by Hillary, not entirely unreasonably, as a momentum-stopper, so it’s a fairly good night for her already.
Update (Bryan): Hold the phone, she’s back up to a four-point lead. Comeback Kid’s Revenge in the making?
Update: Hmmm — Fox News is reporting that the college towns have yet to be counted.
Update: Spin or omen?
Update: The either/or excuse to go with the “15 percent lie”: Diebold!
Update: The secret to Hillary’s surprise? She recaptured the women’s vote that Obama won in Iowa, taking New Hampshire’s women by 13 points. Did the tears do the trick? As for independents, surprisingly, Obama’s lead is only seven points.
Update: Lowry offers an intriguing, staggeringly ironic theory. Did press hype for the Messiah suppress turnout among independents?
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How great would it be to see the rug pulled out from under her?
AbaddonsReign on January 8, 2008 at 9:22 PM
Tears for Allah
Kini on January 8, 2008 at 9:23 PM
How DARE she stand in the way of change!
henzou on January 8, 2008 at 9:23 PM
This is the only good news of the night for conservatives.
Patriot33 on January 8, 2008 at 9:25 PM
Looks like it. Honestly? I’d be relieved–for many reasons.
baldilocks on January 8, 2008 at 9:25 PM
Gah, I hope not…Kinda hoping for the double digit loss, so she doesn’t even win symbolically…
tdau1997 on January 8, 2008 at 9:25 PM
What the hell is going on? I had to rub my eyes when I first turned on the TV.
I’m sticking to my guns, her winning IMO is a definately a good thing. Polls show her losing to every contending Republican. The same definetly can not be said for Barry.
Go Pant Suits!
Weasel Zipper on January 8, 2008 at 9:25 PM
Would you rather Hillary or Obama as prez? Tough question.
BJ* on January 8, 2008 at 9:25 PM
Shows what a few fake tears can do…
IntheNet on January 8, 2008 at 9:25 PM
Leads down to 2% .. Obama climbing.
henzou on January 8, 2008 at 9:25 PM
NO! THEY’RE STEALING MY JOY!
Slublog on January 8, 2008 at 9:26 PM
I guess the “15% lie” really explains Iowa.
Nonfactor on January 8, 2008 at 9:26 PM
We need another 4 to 8 years of cackling. Go, Hill! I think.
Attila (Pillage Idiot) on January 8, 2008 at 9:26 PM
It would serve the main stream media right if she did. They shouldn’t call this stuff so early. It’s annoying and premature. Right now, she’s up 39% to Obama’s 36% with 39% of the precincts having reported.
Theophile on January 8, 2008 at 9:26 PM
Change, change, change…
C’mon all, surely it would be easier to face Hillary rather than Obama in the general, and much more enjoyable see her lose there! In the meantime the more infighting among the Dems the better.
Pax americana on January 8, 2008 at 9:27 PM
Please…if she is willing to scream, lie, cry, beg, plant protesters in the crowd with iron the shirt signs, for a state the size of Dallas/Ft. Worth there is on limit to the crap she would pull to bring her socialist slate to life!
JohnD9207 on January 8, 2008 at 9:27 PM
Oh great… she’ll be blubbering like a baby by Super Tuesday…
elgeneralisimo on January 8, 2008 at 9:28 PM
I hope Silky, Hitlery and Osama all trade wins within a few sliver percentage points all the way to the end….a long slow grind that gets REAAAAL ugly, fracturing the party, chewing down the war chests, spreading disgust and burning out the fever the Kum By Yahs now have.
Alden Pyle on January 8, 2008 at 9:29 PM
I still think Obama is going to win, but it’s going to be close and it’s going to be late.
Spirit of 1776 on January 8, 2008 at 9:29 PM
With 40.86% reporting, it’s down to less than three:
Clinton - 39.08%
Obama - 36.39%
Christoph on January 8, 2008 at 9:29 PM
Seems like some Dems who were happy to tell pollsters that they were voting for Obama had a hard timing doing so once they were in the privacy of the polling booth.
cool breeze on January 8, 2008 at 9:29 PM
The last few bumps at Politico have been in favor of Obama. It looks like the gap is narrowing now.
Kmarion on January 8, 2008 at 9:31 PM
that’s a heck of a screen cap on the homepage! Yikes!!
Zorro on January 8, 2008 at 9:31 PM
Fox News Exit Poll Weighted: Clinton 39%, Obama 37%
amerpundit on January 8, 2008 at 9:32 PM
It would make a very interesting Democratic convention if the delegates were split 40% Obama, 40% Hillary and 20% Edwards. It would be very interesting indeed.
Theophile on January 8, 2008 at 9:32 PM
Let’s hope she wins… we need her for the general where she stands almost no chance of winning.
That said, the cause of the Hillary surge, when going in it was all “Obama could win by double digits”?
I’ll repeat my joke from the other thread (even if I’m the only one who thinks it’s funny):
“Hillary cried, Obamamania died.”
Could the Hillary crying thing have really done this? Remember, anyone who votes for a Dem is a moron or a liar by trade, so it’s not that impossible to believe that the crying did it for them.
RightWinged on January 8, 2008 at 9:33 PM
Latest exit polls reflect a Clinton victory..
henzou on January 8, 2008 at 9:33 PM
Bill Kristol just got an email from a New Hampshire political veteran who’s examining the districts (where one or the other should be strong). If he had to bet right now, he’d bet on Clinton.
amerpundit on January 8, 2008 at 9:33 PM
A fractured democrat party would be a great thing. More fractured than the republicans? Even better!
SouthernGent on January 8, 2008 at 9:34 PM
With 42.85% reporting, it’s down to a 2.01% gap:
Clinton - 38.73
Obama - 36.72
Christoph on January 8, 2008 at 9:34 PM
If she wins, I hope Chris Matthews has her on tomorrow. He’ll lick her all over.
a capella on January 8, 2008 at 9:37 PM
Hillary back up 4%.. leads by 4400 votes.
henzou on January 8, 2008 at 9:37 PM
There.
Jaibones on January 8, 2008 at 9:37 PM
Why not say Hillary stole the election; I mean Gore’s been saying it for almost eight years!
Man, if she wins, wishful thinking, I would love to see the spectical of Jessie and Al demanding a recount; if they would demand a recount.
This is going to be an old verses a young election. The Social Security crowd verses the young college kids.
These are interesting times!
sophiesmom on January 8, 2008 at 9:37 PM
My best guess - HRC will lose by 4 or 5 points.
fourstringfuror on January 8, 2008 at 9:38 PM
How can this be? All the pundits and all the pollsters have been telling us that Obama was a lock,that he’s the new JFK and all that rot. Do you mean to tell me they could be wrong? Unbelieveable. (Sarcasm Off)
oldsalt on January 8, 2008 at 9:39 PM
GO HILLARY!
Seriously…she’s far more likely to lose to our guaranteed weak GOP candidate. And the spell Obama is placing on our nation’s stupid and easily led must be broken.
Hannibal Smith on January 8, 2008 at 9:39 PM
omg,tears do work!!!!Obama better get busy playing victim.Come on fred,Win!!!!!!!
beachkatie on January 8, 2008 at 9:39 PM
OK, uh…dude? Will you fucking quit referring to normal people as Hitler? I know it’s weird coming from me, but this is just dumb.
Jaibones on January 8, 2008 at 9:39 PM
Tell, tell. I hear “Hillary winning” and “relief” is about the last concept that occurs to me. But I’d love to find reason to be less discouraged.
Splunge on January 8, 2008 at 9:40 PM
FNC reports many college towns have yet to be reported. Could be heavy Obama support on the way.
henzou on January 8, 2008 at 9:40 PM
Just shows to go ya, polls don’t mean crap. Now they are readjusting the exit polls to show a Hillary win????? WTF!!
Perhaps I could have done better on that physics exam if they would just let me “readjust” my answers???
Bad news is that we are going to have to watch the cow weep for the next several week now.
conservnut on January 8, 2008 at 9:40 PM
My earlier comment in another thread which was a parody of tom Petty’s “Free Fallin”?
Never mind.
Sloan Morganstern on January 8, 2008 at 9:40 PM
Hillary may still lose, but not by as large a margin as many predicted. Combine that with Hillary bringing in the “big guns” to her campaign, and you might have a Hillary come-back.
amerpundit on January 8, 2008 at 9:42 PM
Just goes to show though, this Clinton machine isn’t over yet - win or lose.
Spirit of 1776 on January 8, 2008 at 9:42 PM
Michael Barone seems out of breath…gosh. But he’s so informed. I love him!
SouthernGent on January 8, 2008 at 9:43 PM
Chrissy Mathews likened Obama’s likely win tonite to the Arabs taking Akaba from the desert when Turkish guns were pointed out to sea.
Looks like the Turks weren’t so easy to sneak up on, afterall.
God, I hate rooting for Mrs. Clinton.
DrW on January 8, 2008 at 9:43 PM
Hillary pulling ahead a bit, and Mitt gaining, now about 30%, but still 5+% behind McCain.
Hannibal Smith on January 8, 2008 at 9:43 PM
I thought this was one place where we were free from profanity. Who’s asleep at the wheel?
Sloan Morganstern on January 8, 2008 at 9:44 PM
A Fox political guy also just said that the college towns (at least the 3 he specifically named) aren’t large enough to make a huge impact.
amerpundit on January 8, 2008 at 9:44 PM
You think she might have got herself a blimp?
Big Orange on January 8, 2008 at 9:44 PM
We need a caption contest for that photo asap.
Pasalubong on January 8, 2008 at 9:45 PM
Shoot me now. Cheering for Hillary.
It just feels dirty
Wind Rider on January 8, 2008 at 9:45 PM
I can hear all the Osamabama Butt Boy journalists crying like little girls over a torn up Shawn Cassidy poster.
Alden Pyle on January 8, 2008 at 9:45 PM
If HRC wins this thing the media’s cred goes poof.
swami on January 8, 2008 at 9:46 PM
So either…
a.) exit pollsters stink
b.) exit pollster-ees lied
c.) the Clintons had more homeless people bribed with cigarettes than you can shake a stick at!
Pasalubong on January 8, 2008 at 9:48 PM
C’mon Barack! Break her neck while she’s down! GOD!
SouthernGent on January 8, 2008 at 9:48 PM
Free speech.. what a mess.
Mcguyver on January 8, 2008 at 9:49 PM
I was just at CNN and they have live streaming coverage of NH. It’s hilarious: 4 different live streams going, Hillary hq, Obama hq, Edwards hq, and Ron Paul. What a joke.
Jaibones on January 8, 2008 at 9:49 PM
I wonder if Silky will give it up tonight or go for humilation in his home state. Aren’t he and Messiah doing some kind of a tag team on Hillary in Michigan? Trying to get voters to vote “uncommitted”, rather than hand it to her since they aren’t registered?
a capella on January 8, 2008 at 9:49 PM
I have a very good African American friend who is a Democrat. I asked her today who she favored Hillary or Obama? She said Hillary. She didn’t think Obama had enough experience!
McCain got in a good point tonight…New Hampshire voters don’t let the media tell them who they are voting for. I have never seen as lousy reporting or predicting or punditry as I have seen these last two weeks! “They” don’t know cr*p!
What is the 15% lie?
CCRWM on January 8, 2008 at 9:50 PM
Semi-OT (?):
On CNN’s site, they have Romney closing fast on McCain with only 50% reporting. Interesting possibility of an upset…?
American_Pride1701 on January 8, 2008 at 9:50 PM
Gone in a New Hampshire minute.
Well, it ain’t like there was a lot there anyway…
Wind Rider on January 8, 2008 at 9:50 PM
OK, the crying seems to have worked. I heaar she’s gonna pull out a few show tunes for Michigan and SC.
Big Daddy Cool on January 8, 2008 at 9:50 PM
No no, he’s against animal cruelty, even to female dogs.
Grayson on January 8, 2008 at 9:51 PM
Got one. He lost weight.
a capella on January 8, 2008 at 9:51 PM
I saw above what the 15% lie is…interesting..
CCRWM on January 8, 2008 at 9:52 PM
CNN says Shrillary has retaken the women’s vote.
SouthernGent on January 8, 2008 at 9:52 PM
Normal? Surely you jest. She’s a socialist, anti American. She’ll pick your pocket, confiscate your weapons, replace you at your job with a criminal alien, sell national secrets to commies and plant lawyers in federal parks for 8 years. Dunce.
Alden Pyle on January 8, 2008 at 9:52 PM
Wait … CNN is crediting the Maverick’s support of Bush on Iraq as the reason he’s winning?
Jaibones on January 8, 2008 at 9:52 PM
It makes me throw up a little in my mouth to say this, but I’m really pulling for Hillary here. No Republican in this race stands a chance against Obama, but all five of them can beat Hillary.
sarahk on January 8, 2008 at 9:53 PM
Wait…wasn’t Barack “inevitable?”
superpsy on January 8, 2008 at 9:53 PM
SECOND LOOK AT THE 1990s!!!
terryannonline on January 8, 2008 at 9:53 PM
I’ve asked this before and the next response will be the first.
Which Dem is going to be the first to sue for a recount?
Tonite is the first real possibility.
swami on January 8, 2008 at 9:54 PM
Basically, it doesn’t matter either way. We’re doomed in November.
Attila (Pillage Idiot) on January 8, 2008 at 9:54 PM
Uh…you got 2 1/2 right out of 7. But even if you were 7 for 7, she doesn’t want to exterminate Jews, and she hasn’t killed anyone. Or maybe you don’t actually know anything about Hitler. And I’m the dunce, right?
Jaibones on January 8, 2008 at 9:54 PM
Not so much the war as the surge plan, at least when I saw CNN a few minutes ago. He supported and pushed for the surge, which worked. The theory is he gained support after people saw the surge work, because he had said it would help.
amerpundit on January 8, 2008 at 9:55 PM
Al Gore!
Pasalubong on January 8, 2008 at 9:55 PM
It’s pretty much a given that at least one will. Silky maybe?
Grayson on January 8, 2008 at 9:55 PM
The Crying Game
Jaibones on January 8, 2008 at 9:55 PM
Prediction:
Silky stays in, thinking it results in anybody-but-Hillary.
The truth is it gets Hillary nominated.
Mcguyver on January 8, 2008 at 9:55 PM
Attila (Pillage Idiot) on January 8, 2008 at 9:54 PM
you seem to have forgotten the secret weapon has gone underground. Hint…known only as the “magnificent bastard”
swami on January 8, 2008 at 9:56 PM
I hope she narrowly wins NH to stop Barack’s momentum. She’ll be easiest to beat in the fall.
Oink on January 8, 2008 at 9:56 PM
Dude– you should headline at Zany’s next weekend. Great line.
Pasalubong on January 8, 2008 at 9:57 PM
Just think what the Clinton machine would do against Huck. With all Slick’s contacts in Arkansas( spelled Tyson), and Huck’s reputation for liking the dollar, Hillary wouldn’t have to break a sweat.
a capella on January 8, 2008 at 9:57 PM
He didn’t go underground. Didn’t you hear? He joined La Raza.
Grayson on January 8, 2008 at 9:57 PM
This could make Edwards the king-maker. Look for a deal giving trial-lawyers exception from the income tax.
pedestrian on January 8, 2008 at 9:57 PM
CNN.. of course they are admitting the surge is working.. it supports their shilling for McSchamnesty.
Mcguyver on January 8, 2008 at 9:57 PM
52.49% reporting:
Clinton - 39.09
Obama - 36.55
Difference = 2.54
Christoph on January 8, 2008 at 9:58 PM
Well, exit polls have shown themselves to be completely worthless again.
Slublog on January 8, 2008 at 9:58 PM
Please fracture democrats! I want to see Pelosi at the convention trying to speak over a chorus of protest chants!
SouthernGent on January 8, 2008 at 9:58 PM
Not Diebold, but perhaps “massive polling error” regarding the first-ever black candidate (i.e. people voting differently from the way they white-guiltily answer phone polls). I was expecting we might see a big polling overestimate of Obama in Iowa, but then again, that was open outcry, not secret ballot, so the fashionability of voting for a minority for sake of doing so (and the fear of being cast a racist) was still in play. Iowa may have been the anamoly and HRC was never truly in jeopardy.
flip on January 8, 2008 at 9:58 PM
Won’t happen. There would be nothing to win since the Dems divide the delegates based on proportion of the vote. If it’s that close, they will effectively come out with the same amount of delegates, with 47 other primaries and caucuses to go.
bert169 on January 8, 2008 at 9:59 PM
The lead in the general election could change ten times in the upcoming months. I don’t get these all or nothing statements in January.
gmbdds on January 8, 2008 at 10:00 PM
Huck??
Slick will cover him with Arkansas chicken manure from Tyson Farms.
The other 4 have a reasonable shot.
a capella on January 8, 2008 at 10:01 PM
56.14% reporting:
Clinton - 39.04
Obama - 36.65
Difference = 2.39
Christoph on January 8, 2008 at 10:02 PM
Regarding this Diebold crap, I find it humorous that moron nutroots put so much faith (a good word for the reality based community) in polls. To them, anything that goes against the polls is obviously stolen.
bert169 on January 8, 2008 at 10:03 PM
And with disillusioned blacks and young liberal staying home, even a Fred-style campaign is all it would take.
Even so, with Hillary as head of the DNC and anyone but Huckster head of the RNC, look for Iowa to be rotated to the back of the line.
pedestrian on January 8, 2008 at 10:04 PM
Focus group says: Hillary needs to cry. Hillary cries. and wins.
lorien1973 on January 8, 2008 at 10:04 PM
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