Iran’s establishment turns on Ahmadinejad — thanks to the NIE?

posted at 7:31 pm on January 7, 2008 by Allahpundit

Gape in wonder as Iranian “analysts” turn lemons into lemonade.

There are numerous possible reasons for Ahmadinejad’s loss of support, but analysts here all point to one overriding factor: the U.S. National Intelligence Report last month, which said that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003 in response to international pressure. The report sharply decreased the threat of a military strike against Iran, allowing the authorities to focus on domestic issues, with important parliamentary elections looming in March.

“Now that Iran is not under the threat of a military attack, all contradictions within the establishment are surfacing,” said Saeed Leylaz, an economic and political analyst. “The biggest mistake that Americans have constantly made toward Iran was adopting radical approaches, which provided the ground for radicals in the country to take control.”

The NIE came out in December; the regime’s “contradictions” have been in plain view for at least a year. Khamenei was publicly knocking Ahmadinejad’s government as far back as last February, replete with a noteworthy snub of Mahdi during a series of meetings with other government officials at the time. In October Ahmadinejad replaced Ali Larijani, a hated rival and Khamenei’s nuke negotiator of choice, with his own nutjob favorite, Saeed Jalili. Khamenei responded by going over his head and sending Larijani to accompany Jalili to the nuclear talks in Rome. That same month, Khamenei reacted to a student protest against Ahmadinejad by … commending the protesters and announcing that he didn’t “approve of every detail of the work that is being done” by the government. And then there’s this nugget from back in May, in which Iran’s tightly controlled press somehow was permitted to accuse Ahmadinejad of, and I quote, “economic suicide.”

Did the NIE deepen the cracks in the regime by decreasing the pressure for a united front? We’ll find out. Just beware of anti-war spin in the meantime that neutralizing Iran is as simple as scabbarding a sword.

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Mommy? How come Santa Claus looks so evil?

thejackal on January 7, 2008 at 7:32 PM

Come on Iran’s economy is tanking because of sanctions and that is why Amadamndijini is disliked. That and the religeous police goons are out enforing islamic law. They have cracked down on the public and it has had an effect.

Its a feeble attempt to keep saying the NEI was right and we need to release pressure on Iran. The one thing that is causing the powers in Iran trouble.

William Amos on January 7, 2008 at 7:35 PM

It’s the Economy, Stupid! Double digit unemployment and inflation smells like National Malaise to me. When the people get sufficiently disgruntled at the gasoline rationing, etc. The Mullahs will toss Dinnerjacket to the wolves. When you can’t blame The Great Satan or The Jooos, it’s nice to have a fall guy around.

trubble on January 7, 2008 at 7:36 PM

Sometimes Ahmadinejad has the appearance of a empty talking suit propped up by the Mullahs, other times he seems to be a Chavez style authoritarian. I wonder which is closer to the truth?

AbaddonsReign on January 7, 2008 at 7:40 PM

Let the fools kill each other, fine by me.

MyImamToldMeToDoIt on January 7, 2008 at 7:40 PM

I’m doubtful if Ahmadinejads unpopularity has much to do with the NIE report. We already know that a signficant portion of Iranian society, mostly the youth, are very unpopular with the Mullahs. And he represents the hardline of the Mullahs. He has also done a pretty good job runnings Irans economy into the ground failing to deliver on his economic promises.

irish_infidel on January 7, 2008 at 7:40 PM

This could link with the near explosion in the Gulf today. If Ahmadinejad is tanking due to lack of a military threat, hey presto! He cooks one up.

laelaps on January 7, 2008 at 7:43 PM

There is a guy who comments over at The Jawa Report named Garduneh Mehr, he is an Iranian expat. If anyone can explain what we are seeing here it would be him. I’ll see if he has any thoughts on the matter…

doriangrey on January 7, 2008 at 7:46 PM

We will soon hear how Obama and the NIE report have turned the tides.

Hening on January 7, 2008 at 7:47 PM

Threads like this make me nostalgic for Rosie on the View. Hard to figure these wiley Persians.

infidel on January 7, 2008 at 7:49 PM

I think it’s time to publish those pictures of Ahmadinejad bringing Khamenei’s daughter home at midnight in a shopping cart…

Zorro on January 7, 2008 at 7:52 PM

I just got of the phone with Governor Huckabee and he said the NEA didn’t effect Iran at all.

Seriously, it might be possible, but I really suspect Russia is more likely the influence that has taken some of the pressure of Iran and allowed some of the internal disagreements to boil up a bit.

Spirit of 1776 on January 7, 2008 at 7:52 PM

I just got of the phone with Governor Huckabee and he said the NEA didn’t effect Iran at all.

Seriously, it might be possible, but I really suspect Russia is more likely the influence that has taken some of the pressure of Iran and allowed some of the internal disagreements to boil up a bit.

Spirit of 1776 on January 7, 2008 at 7:52 PM

Does Huckleberry Hound even know where Iran is???

doriangrey on January 7, 2008 at 7:56 PM

Does Huckleberry Hound even know where Iran is???

Hang on, I ask…

Yeah, he says it’s on the east border of Venezuela.

Spirit of 1776 on January 7, 2008 at 7:58 PM

Dinnerjackets in the crapper and that is Bush’s fault?

Must be that stopped clock twice a day stuff.

Before we try and unlock the nebulous innards of Irans simulated democratic trappings and see what faction holds sway this week, lets stop and remember that it is only one filthy old teddy bear named Khamenie who runs Iran. He is the guy that Khomenie bounced ideas off on the minimum age for thighing infant girls and how far away you had to sell the meat of that donkey you had sex with and then butchered. Keep that in mind while dealing with these persians.

BL@KBIRD on January 7, 2008 at 8:01 PM

Now is the time for Ahmadinejad to get on TV and weep publically…and tell everyone that this has been so hard on him personally.

Khamenei then comes on TV and wishes that he could make Ahmadinejad taller, younger and male.

wildweasel on January 7, 2008 at 8:08 PM

Hang on, I ask…

Yeah, he says it’s on the east border of Venezuela.

Spirit of 1776 on January 7, 2008 at 7:58 PM

Well I’ll be danged…I didn’t actually expect him to come that close…

doriangrey on January 7, 2008 at 8:09 PM

Unfortunately the most likely scenario involves the clerics dumping Ahmadinejad after pinning on him all of the domestic problems that they have not connected to America/Israel yet; and then hiring another stooge to cover for their inability to run a country. No win for America unless they have a real revolution.

Peace2Israel on January 7, 2008 at 8:23 PM

For christs sake if HotAir wasn’t so in the tank for Khamenei maybe Fred would stand a chance. Sheesh Allah do you need to show your pro-Khamenei stance so much?

I give up…
/s/

broker1 on January 7, 2008 at 8:23 PM

Sure, this makes it all easy. Get rid of Ahmedinejad and everything will be solved right? Who if you proved it idiocy in this fine post.. Plus who cares about the 20+ year long conflict with Iran, that’s all ancient history, as is the 20 year long nuclear program, or the 20 years of daily speeches calling America the Great Satan, & Israel the Little Satan, or the 20+ years of calls for a global caliphate..

I appease, therefore I am. It’s gonna be the Obama mantra so I am memorizing it now to be prepared! :)

saus on January 7, 2008 at 8:24 PM

Lol the Democratic shill on Fox just said “clinton needs a second look”

broker1 on January 7, 2008 at 8:26 PM

Lol the Democratic shill on Fox just said “clinton needs a second look”

broker1 on January 7, 2008 at 8:26 PM

Doh………..We must have been infiltrated…Maybe Allah can sue for royalties…

doriangrey on January 7, 2008 at 8:28 PM

NIE my foot!!!

It’s obvious that it’s either Global Warming or Brittany which is responsible!!!

This is just like the daily “explanations” of why the stock market did whatever it did: the people who write this garbage have absolutely no idea…but they weasel-word the explanation so that nobody will ever bother to invest the time to disprove their cockeyed theories.

landlines on January 7, 2008 at 8:49 PM

I think the Clinton writers have moved to Iran.

shooter on January 7, 2008 at 9:06 PM

I think the Clinton writers have moved to Iran.

shooter on January 7, 2008 at 9:06 PM

I wish the Clinton’s would move to Iran…….

doriangrey on January 7, 2008 at 9:18 PM

Hmmm…are the Mullahs smart enough to take seriously the fact that by 2020, their oil-dependent economy won’t be able to keep up with both world demand and their own needs?

This could be a refreshing twist, but it could also make Dinner Jacket very, very desperate.

MadisonConservative on January 7, 2008 at 9:43 PM

It bothers me that it seems like our government has little to no understanding of 4th generation warfare(4GW). Sometimes inaction can result in a strategic victory when action would have achieved some tactical victories, but ultimately a loss. I guess my point is that if we are going to be fighting an extraordinarily complicated, multi-front war to protect the freedom of the American people, we stand very little chance of succeeding when we have anti-war crazies dividing public opinion (which is actually defined as an attack against our state by 4GW). We have somehow allowed “freedom of speech” to become “freedom to aggressively oppose America”. Whether we attack Iran head on or de-escalate, allowing them to tear themselves apart, doesn’t change that they’re a threat to us. What it does make apparent is that we aren’t making decisions with regard to anything other than tactical victories over our enemies. Madness. Diplomacy has somehow become code for “roll over and die”.

blankminde on January 8, 2008 at 11:19 AM