Zogby: Clinton & Romney fading, Obama & Huckabee making a move
posted at 9:35 am on January 3, 2008 by Bryan
Share on Facebook | printer-friendly
Well, we can see now why Hillary was out pre-emptively spinning a loss in Iowa yesterday. She expects one.
Democrat Barack Obama continued his upward momentum through the evening before the Iowa caucuses, capturing the lead ahead of rivals John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.. Meanwhile, Republican Mike Hucakbee widened his lead over Mitt Romney down the stretch, the newest and last Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby daily telephone tracking poll in Iowa shows.
Obama broke through the 30% barrier for the first time, gaining 31% support after another strong day leading up to the caucuses. But more dramatic was Clinton’s four-point drop in this last day of tracking. Edwards moved into second place by himself after another day where he steadily gained ground.
Well, that’s a late collapse, more or less. And I don’t think the Pakistan story is what’s killing the beast, as fun as that would be.
On the GOP side it’s Huck in the lead, 31-25.
With a Huckabee surge and a Romney dip, the former Arkansas governor opened up a six-point lead over his nearest rival. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson also lost a point, and Arizona Sen. John McCain, who has been surging in New Hampshire, faded here into a tie for fourth place.
Huckabee’s strength among women was notable – he leads Romney by a 37% to 25% margin, while enjoying a narrow 27% to 25% edge among men. Huckabee also continued to show well among those likely caucus-goers age 25-34 and age 35-54, where he held significant leads over Romney and the rest of the field.
Caveat: It’s Zogby. Caveat II: The Des Moines Register’s poll also puts Obama in front on the Dem side and Huckabee in front on the GOP side.
Huckamentum? Huckamentum. I suppose it’s some consolation that Huckabee at least actually grew up in a place called Hope.
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages:
Honestly, at this point, I wouldn’t be shocked to see it as Huck for the Republican Party and Obama for the Democratic Party. Actually, I’d be surprised if it isn’t.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 9:37 AM
Anyone who has played in a band knows that, minus a few exceptions, the bass guitar player is the strangest. Doesn’t play with all 6 strings…if you know what I mean.
Weight of Glory on January 3, 2008 at 9:40 AM
Good job.
The women are driving his lead. Yikes.
saiga on January 3, 2008 at 9:41 AM
Huck doesn’t have the appeal in the larger states to last. He will flame out.
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:42 AM
It’s not possible for the Huckster to be rebounding…I mean all the mis-steps, mishaps, and miscues he’s made plus Hugh Hewitt has already told us it is a two man race between Romney and Rudy.
Even if you hate Huckabee, and there seems to be a lot of that out there, you had to love his performance on Leno last night. For someone known for his humor and likeability, this was the perfect forum for him.
Does he win Iowa today, perhaps. How does he win with little resources and organization in other states? Simple, the grassroots are the ones who like him. The Luntz Focus group of Iowans watching the campaign ads last night says it all, and has to have Romney reeling: “I don’t’ believe [Romney’s ad is legitimate] because in Iowa we are issues based,” said one focus group voter. “I am not going to stand for a negative ad, I want to know what the candidate is going to do for me.” Another voter added, “I think we all agree we don’t want to hear it, all the negativity, it’s irritating.”
Frank Luntz tried to get it going by asking, “It’s substance, [Romney’s] talking about Hucakbee’s record only to hear “tell us what you are going to do, not necessarily try and provide some information that maybe distorted…or that is not factual in some cases.”
The Huckashow moves on to South Carolina, but does the Fred Heads need a new candidate?
Dhornertx on January 3, 2008 at 9:44 AM
I was thinking the same thing about 2 mos. ago, only it was about Iowa. This guy really has been a surprise for me. ‘Course, that’s really not saying much, I miss a lot of things.
Weight of Glory on January 3, 2008 at 9:46 AM
As bassist myself, I take exception to your description of bass players as “strange.” We don’t need six strings to keep up with a guitar – four, at most five, will do the trick. It’s quantity, not quality, my boy ;)
fourstringfuror on January 3, 2008 at 9:50 AM
Guess I should preview before posting; I should say it’s quality, not quantity!
fourstringfuror on January 3, 2008 at 9:51 AM
I’ll be glad when they get done with the polls. There’s only one that counts and that happens tonight. Nothing up to tonight has meant a hill of beans to anyone but the media ratings.
We’ll know for certain tonight.
ThackerAgency on January 3, 2008 at 9:52 AM
If Iowa picks Mike Huckabee, I’m never going to eat ham again.
TheSitRep on January 3, 2008 at 9:55 AM
This whole primary/caucus process stinks. Why do the liberals and RINOs in IA and NH get to set the table for the rest of us? Then it’s Super Tuesday with twelve states participating.
By the time those of us in Virginia and elsewhere get to choose, it’s already over. I say we should have one nationwide primary on the same day. Is this just sour grapes because I’m not invited to the party? Maybe. But starting off with two purple states doesn’t bode well for nominating a conservative candidate.
pistolero on January 3, 2008 at 9:55 AM
HA! Love your screen name! Obviously, if you are on Hot Air, you are one of the exceptions I mentioned.
Weight of Glory on January 3, 2008 at 9:56 AM
Maybe it’s the Iowa pig farmers, that will repay Mike Huckabee for so many years of being a good customer.
TheSitRep on January 3, 2008 at 9:57 AM
Compared to Romney and Fred he did a lot better on Leno. He was charismatic, funny and seemed comfortable. I really wish charismatic and funny weren’t things people use to pick a president. But looking at the current state of affairs people seem to care about presentation more then substance or Fred might be higher in the polls.
Complete7 on January 3, 2008 at 9:57 AM
Wow, Huckster can actually play. Unlike Clinton. He’s probably the worst sax player I had ever heard.
matd on January 3, 2008 at 10:00 AM
My idea was to have 4 national primary days, spread a few weeks apart. They would be grouped as geographically as possible with as even a distribution of electoral votes as possible.
That way, candidates can campaign more effectively and cheaply, more states get attention from the candidates, and there aren’t states left out in the cold as much. I vote in PA, but not until April for heaven’s sake. I get no say!
Darksean on January 3, 2008 at 10:01 AM
If that’s the case, it will be the greatest opportunity for an Independent candidate in recent history.
TheBigOldDog on January 3, 2008 at 10:02 AM
Bleh…Huck is just trying to imitate Bill Clinton’s saxophone moment. As if we needed any more congruency between them.
James on January 3, 2008 at 10:03 AM
First Clinton on sax, now Huck on bass. Looks like musical talent is required for the Arkansas governorship. Hopefully they will be able to jam with their Tennessee neighbors Lamar Alexander (piano) and Tipper Gore (drums).
Bigfoot on January 3, 2008 at 10:05 AM
Your plan is infinitely better than the free for all that’s going on now. I’d like to at least have to opportunity to not hold my nose and vote in November. Not saying that it still wouldn’t happen, but it is completely out of my control at this point.
Be kind to us IA and NH. Ixnay on the InoRay.
pistolero on January 3, 2008 at 10:10 AM
We are a rare breed, indeed.
Love the Huck or hate the Huck, he is a force with which to contend.
fourstringfuror on January 3, 2008 at 10:18 AM
Not bad, but he’s still no Jaco Pastorius or Michael Manring.
flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 10:27 AM
Received this in my email this morning. Enjoy:
Zetterson on January 3, 2008 at 10:28 AM
One overlooked benefit of this is the resurrection aspect…Nancy Pelosi would never be closer than one heartbeat away from the Presidency. (So long as we include the requisite 3-day waiting period, that is.)
James on January 3, 2008 at 10:41 AM
No, but Jaco is in his own class. His own world, really. I much prefer the likes of Stu Hamm.
fourstringfuror on January 3, 2008 at 10:45 AM
Dare I say it?
SECOND LOOK AT THE CHRIST.
fourstringfuror on January 3, 2008 at 10:46 AM
He’s popular now because he’s winning and he and Mitt have sucked the air out of the national media. That will change when NH comes around and the story switches to Mitt vs McCain vs Rudy
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:46 AM
Bryan, There is something you are missing. It is entirely possible that Obama will defeat Hillary and I hope it happens. But that does not mean that Obama really “wins”. Recall the Bill Clinton lost Iowa and New Hampshire in 1992 and with the help of the MSM, he turned both losses into resounding wins. After getting whomped by Tsongas in 1992 New Hampshire primary, Clinton declared himself “the comeback kid”, did a victory dance, and the MSM and the networks bought in in total. Next thing we knew, Clinton was considered invincible. He is doing it again today, going on the MSM programs and talking about how if Hillary comes close, it is a miraculous event. The MSM loves the Clintons. CNN is practically a house organ of the Clinton campaign. HRC can lose every primary but the media will inevitably spin it as a Clinton surprise win.
Larraby on January 3, 2008 at 10:48 AM
Then I’m staying home. Really, what’s the difference between an ultra-lib Obama or an ultra-lib Huck who just happens to be a Christian?
crazy_legs on January 3, 2008 at 10:50 AM
If you really think I’m “missing” that, you’re on crack.
Bryan on January 3, 2008 at 11:01 AM
More support for the OPEN BORDERS ZEALOTS from the Wolfpack Media types. It’s obvious.
DfDeportation on January 3, 2008 at 11:15 AM
I hate watching ex-guitar players play bass.
LtE126 on January 3, 2008 at 11:32 AM
It’s important that our future president not just be able to jam but to jam well.
It’s sure to impress the world and intimidate our enemies.
shick on January 3, 2008 at 11:33 AM
What a load of narcissistic bullsh!t from said Iowa focus group voter. If you guys in Iowa were issues based then Huck would be polling in the low single digits. You morons are pander-based, and Huck’s doing well there because he’s done the best job of pandering, bar none.
Don’t flatter yourselves, Iowa voters. You’re not all that.
thirteen28 on January 3, 2008 at 11:36 AM
If Romney is indeed fading, it may be because the truth he has kept bottled up in MA is finally getting out. Here’s a taste:
- this
- this
- this
- this
- this
It should have happened long ago. Romney’s is the most absurd “serious” GOP presidential candidacy I have ever seen, bar none.
Tom Blumer
BizzyBlog.com
Tom Blumer on January 3, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Bryan, I am glad to see that you have just as keen an understanding of the Clintons as I do!!!!! I never underestimate the ability of Bill Clinton to spin anything his way. No matter how dreadful his personal conduct is, Bill Clinton can spin it into a tale of personal heroism.
My favorite Bill Clinton whopper is the story he told many times of how he reacted to hearing about Rosa Parks on the Alabama bus. Clinton emotionally told audiences that in solidarity with Rosa Parks, he (Bill) and a friend got on a public bus and moved to the back of the bus to sit with the African-Americans. So I looked up how old Clinton was when Rosa Parks got on the bus that fateful day. Clinton would have been ten years old and ten year old boys don’t do things like that. Clinton was careful not to say who his friend was because someone might actually ask the “friend” if the event actually happened. And my guess is that Clinton has told the story so many times that in his mind, it really happened.
Larraby on January 3, 2008 at 12:18 PM
It might be best to avoid the using the words “Clinton” and “organ” in the same sentence.
ReubenJCogburn on January 3, 2008 at 12:22 PM
Q. What do you call a bass player in a three piece suit?
A. The defendant.
Little Boomer on January 3, 2008 at 12:26 PM
Zogby’s polling reliability always leaves room for doubt.
More importantly, I note that Rudy has all but disappeared from the radar since he isn’t involved in the Iowa caucus. His people are spinning it as part of a “national strategy” but I gotta wonder if that’s really true. Discounting Huckabee as a national candidate, does it really do Rudy any good to be seen missing from Iowa and not winning in New Hampshire? It looks like Huckabee will do well in Iowa and South Carolina. That’s an awful long time of ceding active participation (read winning) in primaries.
highhopes on January 3, 2008 at 1:45 PM
CANADA, US MOURNS AS GEDDY LEE ENDORSES HUCKABEE
ScottMcC on January 3, 2008 at 4:26 PM
Bass players do it with rhythm.
Now that that’s out of the way..
Reaps on January 3, 2008 at 8:00 PM
Comment pages: