Open thread: Raucous caucus!
posted at 7:17 pm on January 3, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Iowans are en route to their precinct meetings as we speak. Things get going in earnest at 7:30 p.m. ET, as the Democratic assemblies are called to order, and then the hard business begins at eight. The GOP should be done within the hour, although tabulation may take awhile; the Democrats could be at it for hours beyond that given the vagaries of their “viability” system. Let the Des Moines Register explain it all to you in handy dandy graphic form.
Precinct results will be posted at the Republican and Democratic state party websites but you’re probably better off with Drudge or the Register if you can’t wait for me to update. Naturally the cable news nets are going wall to wall; if you prefer your coverage unadulterated, C-SPAN and C-SPAN2 are all over it. I’ll probably stick with this thread for awhile and then break off into separate posts as big news happens. Check back for updates, and of course feel free to share info in the comments.
As one prominent Republican put it, it’s in “the hands of the good Lord and the people of Iowa now.” No, it wasn’t Huck.
Update: Mary Katharine likes Obama and, per her Townhall pedigree, Romney to win. Plus, a surprising third for Fred!
Update: “I say this with all compassion, and I say this with love and respect for all of you who support Huckabee. But how dare you compare Mike Huckabee to Ronald Reagan. That is simply intellectually vapid, and it’s grasping at straws.”
Update: On MSNBC, Pat Buchanan asks whether Obama would be a serious contender if he wasn’t black.
Update: Hope for Fredheads?
Update: With just five of 1781 precincts reporting, Silky leads. There are reports in the comments of huge turnout among Democrats, at least, which probably bodes well for Obama.
Update: The state Democratic website is loading like a dream, replete with auto-refresh. The GOP site won’t load at all. Wonderful.
Politico’s posting the results via auto-refresh on its own homepage. One percent of the precincts are reporting.
Update: Lots of reports of heavy turnout, pointing towards big nights for Huck and the Messiah. Maybe a very big night for the Messiah, in fact.
Update: If exit polls are notoriously unreliable, entrance polls must be that much more so. Or so we can hope.
Update: With slightly more than 10% of the Democratic precincts reporting, here’s how it looks:
Senator John Edwards : 34.24%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.12%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.28%
Update (Bryan): I have to say that so far Politico’s front-page numbers are totally useless. They still have Romney at 0% with 7% precincts reporting, for starters.
Update: NBC’s early results are in line with the entrance polls — Huck’s up.
Update: Turnout is massive; ABC says Obama’s people are starting to wonder about a romp. Rudy, meanwhile, appears to be headed for sixth place.
Update: “Registration at one precinct at the museum was approaching 40 percent before the cut-off. That would be four times the amount the Democratic precinct chairman was expecting.”
Update (bp): I drew the short straw so I’m watching MSNBC. Chris Matthews just made a half interesting point. After all the expectations, Hillary could still win by a point and still “lose” as long as Edwards and Obama tie for second.
Update: Only 15% reporting, but Fox has seen enough — they’re calling it for Huck.
Update: With a little more than 33% of precincts in:
Senator Barack Obama : 33.30%
Senator John Edwards : 32.12%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.80%
Update: Half the precincts are in but she’s still just two points off the pace.
Update: The Times says Polk County is neck and neck despite having been expected to break hard for Hillary.
Update: The Clinton legacy hangs by a thread — NBC says it’s Obama’s night.
Update: Don’t look now but with about 85% in, the Glacier is seven points back and fading.
Update: With 78% reporting, Fred’s just a shade behind McCain, both with 13%. Hmmm.
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It is a very historic day for him. He should be able to do well in NH now.
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 11:11 PM
This guy is on a roll, Cankels better watch out.
Time for the Clinton team to pull out the nasty stuff.
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 11:11 PM
Jesus, listening to Obama, he almost has me convinced. If its Huck vs Obama, I will have no problem voting for Obama.
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 11:11 PM
GOP
1,525 of 1,781 precincts – 86 percent
Mike Huckabee 35,342 – 34 percent
Mitt Romney 26,067 – 25 percent
Fred Thompson 13,805 – 13 percent
John McCain 13,509 – 13 percent
major john on January 3, 2008 at 11:11 PM
After you cross Huck off the list, you only have two-thirds of the Republicans in Iowa left.
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 11:12 PM
yeah, there’s another side to it that isn’t progress related. Philosophy, which is very different than was prevailed in the 18th century. been going downhill for awhile now, and it just filters its way into our pop-culture and is consumed by the masses.
jp on January 3, 2008 at 11:13 PM
Funny how Sharpton and Jackson are nowhere to be found when Barack makes history.
What’s authentic blackness got to do with it?
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 11:13 PM
Obama’s speaking as I type,the feeling I get is it’s
the end of status quo of the Democrat Liberal party.
canopfor on January 3, 2008 at 11:13 PM
Thats what I just said. He impressed me during the 2004 convention, but as soon as he said “I will immediately bring the troops home” he lost me.
But if him and Huckabee get into a debate, it will be Obama debating a 5th grader.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 11:14 PM
Like socialism?
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 11:14 PM
Romney spent too much money and wants the nomination too bad.
Neither NH (or any other state) is for Huck in great numbers, except just enough to knock out McCain, Giuliani and Fred. People love the under dog/comeback. However the Huck madness in Iowa with only 14% of the non-evangelical vote, is a plague elsewhere.
The nominee is NOT GOING TO BE HUCK!
Mcguyver on January 3, 2008 at 11:15 PM
Why?
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 11:15 PM
Depressing!
Gatordoug on January 3, 2008 at 11:15 PM
A prime example of your point jp
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 11:15 PM
The only use I have for this type of evangelical voting silliness is when we are going up against a godless democrat.
I never had much expectation that Mitt could get past the Christian bigotry. Now I do not know if that is what happened tonight. He certainly has made progress and I think SC will be the deciding primary for Mitt. In the latest Rasmussen poll, Mitt was the leader in a national poll. His money did it’s job, which was to get his name out there.
If Mitt can finish a strong second in NH and Huck changes places with McCain in NH, then Mitt is still viable as the strong second choice. (This of course plays into Rudy’s strategy.) In that event, Mitt MUST win SC or I think he’s done.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 11:16 PM
Just remember….Obama is further left than Clinton &
Elections have consequences…as much as a Democratic win may help bring the GOP back to its roots, we just cannot tolerate it this election
LordMaximus on January 3, 2008 at 11:16 PM
Biden just dropped out, I will miss that man
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 11:17 PM
Listen to Obama,
This guy is on a big time roll, this is history people and we are in big trouble!
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 11:19 PM
Hunter will drop out, who does he support?
Gatordoug on January 3, 2008 at 11:19 PM
God…when does the Pony Express bring us some new numbers???
BIDEN DROPS.
NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 11:19 PM
All Huckabee did was help out McCain, another RINO like him.
davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 11:19 PM
So who beats Obama?
Mitt? Huckster? Rudy? Fred?
wccawa on January 3, 2008 at 11:20 PM
Obama is all platitudes.
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 11:20 PM
Hopefully THE FRED.
NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 11:20 PM
Listen to Laura Ingram
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 11:21 PM
First debate with Obama and Huckabee
“How do you respond to Senator Obama? I will let GOD guide me”
“How do you respond to Senator Obamas argument about your foreign policy? I will let GOD guide me”
“How do you respond to Senator Obamas statement that you dont know much about fiscal policy? Well I dont but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night!”
Vote for Huckabee!!
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 11:21 PM
@ conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 11:15 PM
If you listen to him speak, you might agree with him on a few issues. I agree with him on Iraq, taxes (cutting them for the middle class), and maybe some other things. Those are just the things I heard him talk about. You want to see someone who votes for someone with no substance, find a Huckabee supporter.
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 11:21 PM
Fred will CREAM OBAMA. And Chuck Norris
NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 11:22 PM
Exactly. People making sweeping generalizations about what a Huck victory means for the the Republican Party and conservatism need to take a step back.
The party is pretty much over for Huck after Iowa. The primary terrain becomes considerably more unfavorable after tonight. As the front runner with the big Mo’, all the other candidates will now have him in their crosshairs. Given that Huck hasn’t proven himself adept at doing anything other than spouting self-serving Bible verses when he gets jammed up, he’ll wilt under the assault.
Mike Honcho on January 3, 2008 at 11:22 PM
Hopefully
Gatordoug on January 3, 2008 at 11:22 PM
Well, the nominee sure isn’t going to be knocked-over-with-a-feather Romney. Neither McCain nor Thompson have been able to get enough separation or money to be a threat outside of their traditional bases. Meanwhile, Giuliani is laughing his head off while ignoring the 3% showing because his entire strategy is to blow off flyover country and take the huge blue states.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 11:24 PM
Here are some polls:
Giuliani (R) vs Obama (D)
Thompson (R) vs Obama (D)
Mike Huckabee (R) vs. Barack Obama (D)
Mitt Romney (R) vs. Barack Obama (D)
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 11:24 PM
The good thing about Obama winning tonight and potentially winning the nomination (yes, it has a long way to go, but good start for him) is that Hillary is in bad shape. And if Hillary fails to get the nomination, I can feel much better about sitting at home or writing in a candidate in ‘08 should the Republican nominee be Huck or McVain. Yes, Obama is a total lightweight whose only policy proposals will be ones that I won’t like, but the same can be said for Huck, and there’s little to like about backstabbing McVain whose national security policy will leave our southern border entirely undefended (regardless of present pandering).
I’d have to think twice about sitting it out if McVain ran against Hillary, but if he runs against Obama, I’ll take my chances.
thirteen28 on January 3, 2008 at 11:24 PM
John McCain (R) vs. Barack Obama (D)
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 11:25 PM
I truly believe it’s not over until the fat lady sings this election cycle.
All you later primary states, take heart, your vote absolutely counts this time.
This is going to be a state-by-state “hung jury”.
Mcguyver on January 3, 2008 at 11:25 PM
Obama is a stronger General Election candidate than Clinton
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 11:26 PM
That sounds like a Democratic stance toward the entire nation…
major john on January 3, 2008 at 11:26 PM
Yeah, no kidding. Hucks gaffs on foreign policy over the last weeks will matter to the folks in NH. Mitt needs to hit the immigration issue real hard. AND Laura just said he needs to hit an economy speech too.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 11:27 PM
I’d be surprised if most of Huckabee’s supporters were registered as Republicans three months ago, but even if they were, I don’t believe most of them voted for Huckabee because he’s a Republican, but rather because of his Christian identity.
FloatingRock on January 3, 2008 at 11:27 PM
Alright, just looked at Obama on the issues, guess I wont be voting for him. Ugh, can there be one candidate that doesnt suck?
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 11:27 PM
Dang. Is Iowa snowmobiling the last 15% in?
wccawa on January 3, 2008 at 11:28 PM
Senator Barack Obama : 37.54%
Senator John Edwards : 29.81%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.44%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.10%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.13%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1764 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 11:29 PM
Mitt has to win NH or he’s done. Unfortunately, it is more likely he finishes no better than 3rd than 1st.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 11:29 PM
I would never vote for Obama, even over Huck, make no mistake, he is a socialist. But he is unbelievably charismatic. Listen to what Larua Ingram said while ago. She saw people coming into a democratic caucus saying they were republicans and they were coming to vote for Obama. She said we are in trouble. And I believe her. We are looking at a whole new ballgame here folks. And it don’t bode well for us…. or the Republic
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 11:29 PM
Senator Barack Obama : 37.53%
Senator John Edwards : 29.82%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.44%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.10%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.14%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1766 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 11:29 PM
So Mitt’s going back to the flip side on that after a try on the flop?
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 11:30 PM
Pony Express.
NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 11:30 PM
Yes. John McCain has better name recognition than Obama. Mostly, that is all national polls are good for.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 11:31 PM
And the pony chocked to death when it found out that most of the votes were going to the Huckleberry… :O
doriangrey on January 3, 2008 at 11:33 PM
In NH? How do you figure that?
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 11:33 PM
It doesn’t matter. Mitt is way better than McCain on immigration.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 11:34 PM
I think he’s just being hopeful. I, personally, would love to see Mitt win in NH since he’s 1000x better than McCain.
davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 11:34 PM
LOL…I ‘d like more space for Fred over McCain please.
NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 11:35 PM
New Hampshire likes their “mavericks”, and a pair of them had pretty good nights in Iowa. Morever, Huck-A-Boom is making a late run there to help deliver the coup de grace.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 11:35 PM
Anyone know about any polling in Wyoming, they go on Saturday. I haven’t found anything. I realize that they’re “nobody”, but it would be interesting at anyrate.
RJS2 on January 3, 2008 at 11:36 PM
Mitt trends down, McCain trends up, and the rest trend waaaay down.
How does that translate to no better than third for Mitt?
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 11:37 PM
As long as it’s not on Sunday. Romney’s last trip to Meet the Press featured a flopback to a pro-amnesty position previously held.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 11:38 PM
Gawd, now Huckster is trying to lay claim to the Reagan legacy. Where’s my dramamine?
P. James Moriarty on January 3, 2008 at 11:40 PM
If you want to see how the candidates are trending on illigration, Numbers USA put out a goodd post today…I think for the Republicans the top 3 were Hunter, Thompson, and Romney.
davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 11:41 PM
Anyone know about any polling in Wyoming, they go on Saturday. I haven’t found anything. I realize that they’re “nobody”, but it would be interesting at anyrate.
RJS2 on January 3, 2008 at 11:36 PM
Fred’s a natural in that environment. If he took a flight to Casper and did a nice speech, then a quick stop in Jackson, it would be his. That’s all he’d have to do.
And don’t forget the cowboy hat.
wccawa on January 3, 2008 at 11:41 PM
immigration not illigration…sorrry
davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 11:41 PM
Where the heck can I find more up to date results than the #$%& Des Moines Register page…?
major john on January 3, 2008 at 11:42 PM
There’s just enough time to accelerate that downward spiral, especially since the word is that NH is where a lot of Paul-Nut money is going.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 11:42 PM
Good luck, John. The numbers we’ve got here is the freshest that anybody has.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 11:43 PM
Actually, you may have coined a phrase there!
wccawa on January 3, 2008 at 11:43 PM
I’d be surprised if most of Huckabee’s supporters were registered as Republicans three months ago, but even if they were, I don’t believe most of them voted for Huckabee because he’s a Republican, but rather because of his Christian identity.
FloatingRock on January 3, 2008 at 11:27 PM
I’ve got a real creepy feeling about the huckleberry, sort of like Ross Perot, and he IS from Arkansas, and – could he be – gasp – a clenis schill????
thebookkeeper on January 3, 2008 at 11:43 PM
Since he said he didn’t support any of those positions, how do figure he flopped on them?
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 11:43 PM
Two things:
1. People love to vote for the underdog.
2. People love to vote for the winner.
Translation after tonight’s Huck and Obama win:
Obama will pull away votes from Huck in Independent voting primaries.
Huck will pull away from all Republicans equally in all states, every other vote being equal.
Which leaves Mitt, McCain, Fred, Giuliani drained fairly equally, their individual strengths intact.
Since Rudy will run out of money and energy before Mitt, the stronger could easily end up being Mitt.
State-by-State “hung jury” I’m telling ya.
Mcguyver on January 3, 2008 at 11:44 PM
Ron Paul spin on digg… LOL
Ron_Paul_supporters_surf_digg_instead_of_vote
Canadian Imperialist Running Dog on January 3, 2008 at 11:45 PM
AND McCain pushed for amnesty in a coalition of dems and others who called us all a bunch of nativist bigots.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 11:45 PM
Why?
Bnelson44 on December 3,2007 at 11:13PM.
Bnelson44:I’m going to try,Well I think the democrats for to long have been running there party demonizing Republicans
as the reason African Americans aren’t getting ahead,you and
I both know that’s bullsh!t.There is no Jesse Jackson or Al
Sharpton backing him.Remember that they both said he wasn’t
African American enough.
Now the guy on CNN,can’t think of his name,old,grey hair,
were’s glasses and recently wrote a book on Hillary said.
He believes now there will be a fight for the Liberal party’s soul,he said that after I commented.
I guess the bottom line is,the white Liberals aren’t in
control of their party,I don’t know why but I feel uneasy
talking about the black and white issue,scared that what I
might say may be taken out of context!
canopfor on January 3, 2008 at 11:45 PM
illigration…hmmm. I think you may be right, wccawa.
major john on January 3, 2008 at 11:45 PM
Keep dreaming. However, it looks like we both picked wrong horses (Thompson here), and we’ll need to make peace with the inevitable ‘Rat-infested general (Obama vs Giuliani or God-forbid Huckabee).
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 11:48 PM
So there are no polls showing a trend up for any other candidates. You’re basing this off what RP says he will do.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 11:48 PM
Senator Barack Obama : 37.55%
Senator John Edwards : 29.78%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.47%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.09%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.14%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1775 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 11:48 PM
Greta certainly is bitchy tonight.
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 11:48 PM
Thanks. This may shake up the Black Caucus, I don’t think the current people running it think of Obama as Black.
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 11:49 PM
Negative. My attitude has not changed. If it’s not Fred, I’m sitting this one out. For the first time since 1976.
wccawa on January 3, 2008 at 11:51 PM
Rumors of the demise of Freds campaign are greatly overexaggertaed. We always knew it’d be 3rd in IA.
The game will change
NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 11:54 PM
Race for 3rd (87% reporting, AP via Politico):
Thompson 13.39% (13,932 votes)
McCain 13.16% (13,693 votes)
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 11:57 PM
Maybe this Marbleheader’s just a bit tired, but when I see a 21-point margin to make up on a charismatic liberal that came out of nowhere, it’s a bit much for a night.
I’ll hopefully feel a bit better about things tomorrow.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 11:59 PM
…
,
Not going to happen. No need to worry about making amends with Obama/Huck.
Bloomberg as an Independent will knock out Obama.
A conservative-Independent/off party will knock out Huck if he is the Repub nominee.
Mitt wants to be elected POTUS so bad even he would run as an Independent/off party.
No worries.
Mcguyver on January 3, 2008 at 11:59 PM
Midnight EST: 86% in.
Iowa is such a fool. And a tool.
I like the idea of taking this initial primary elsewhere.
wccawa on January 4, 2008 at 12:01 AM
C’mon already. Does Fred get third or not? 300 votes is a LOT to overtake with 87% already counted so I’m hopeful.
Mojave Mark on January 4, 2008 at 12:02 AM
Heres a nifty link to the Republican party of Iowa site. It looks like four counties have yet to report.
sonnyspats1 on January 4, 2008 at 12:02 AM
GOP
1,546 of 1,781 precincts – 87 percent
Mike Huckabee 35,621 – 34 percent
Mitt Romney 26,524 – 25 percent
Fred Thompson 13,932 – 13 percent
John McCain 13,693 – 13 percent
Gee, 30 minutes for the Register to add 1 percent of precincts…
major john on January 4, 2008 at 12:03 AM
I’m sure we’re all glued to the numbers. I know I am.
NickTx on January 4, 2008 at 12:03 AM
The networks are reporting ENTRANCE polls. The actual election results may change the close race between McCain and Thompson.
sonnyspats1 on January 4, 2008 at 12:04 AM
Ya gotta love AP. “Fred slips to fourth” is the best he can manage.
wccawa on January 4, 2008 at 12:08 AM
Hey it’s gotta be SOMEwhere. I like the fact that these over managed candidates actually have to get out there and campaign.
Mojave Mark on January 4, 2008 at 12:08 AM
Dunno which networks you’ve been watching. For the last 3 hours, they’ve been scrolling nothing but hard numbers (votes on the Pubbie end, delegate-equivalents on the Dem end because of their goofier rules).
steveegg on January 4, 2008 at 12:11 AM
Actually, Wyoming would be perfect. Those are some decent folks out there. I know. I spent a good percentage of my adult life there.
This thing with Iowa is almost like a carnival anymore. It’s outlived its usefulness.
wccawa on January 4, 2008 at 12:13 AM
Slublog’s update over at AoS encouraged me some. He’s been on the fence, but he saw this as the right time to jump on the Thompson truck.
steveegg on January 4, 2008 at 12:14 AM
These are hard numbers:
From AP via Politico:
87% precincts reporting
Rudy 3.47%
Huck 34.24%
Hunter .44%
McCain 13.16%
Paul 9.79%
Romney 25.5%
Fred 13.39%
bnelson44 on January 4, 2008 at 12:14 AM
These are hard numbers:
Anything, and I mean anything, from Politico, goes through my magnifying glass numerous times from now on.
No offense.
wccawa on January 4, 2008 at 12:16 AM
Slublog’s update over at AoS encouraged me some. He’s been on the fence, but he saw this as the right time to jump on the Thompson truck.
steveegg on January 4, 2008 at 12:14 AM
NickTx on January 4, 2008 at 12:23 AM
I’m tired. My technical wizardry is slipping.
NickTx on January 4, 2008 at 12:25 AM
Interesting quote from the South Carolina head Repub guy:
Dawson: The South Carolina Republican party’s First-In-The-South presidential primary has grown in significance over time. Since 1980, no candidate has won the Republican nomination for president without winning South Carolina’s Republican primary. We pick presidents.
As O’Reilly would barf; WHAT SAY YOU????
wccawa on January 4, 2008 at 12:25 AM
From AP via Politico:
93% precincts reporting
Rudy 3.43%
Huck 34.36%
Hunter .44%
McCain 13.13%
Paul 10%
Romney 25.25%
Fred 13.39%
bnelson44 on January 4, 2008 at 12:29 AM
No former trend is going to be true this election cycle.
NONE.
Mcguyver on January 4, 2008 at 12:30 AM
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