Open thread: Raucous caucus!
posted at 7:17 pm on January 3, 2008 by Allahpundit
Iowans are en route to their precinct meetings as we speak. Things get going in earnest at 7:30 p.m. ET, as the Democratic assemblies are called to order, and then the hard business begins at eight. The GOP should be done within the hour, although tabulation may take awhile; the Democrats could be at it for hours beyond that given the vagaries of their “viability” system. Let the Des Moines Register explain it all to you in handy dandy graphic form.
Precinct results will be posted at the Republican and Democratic state party websites but you’re probably better off with Drudge or the Register if you can’t wait for me to update. Naturally the cable news nets are going wall to wall; if you prefer your coverage unadulterated, C-SPAN and C-SPAN2 are all over it. I’ll probably stick with this thread for awhile and then break off into separate posts as big news happens. Check back for updates, and of course feel free to share info in the comments.
As one prominent Republican put it, it’s in “the hands of the good Lord and the people of Iowa now.” No, it wasn’t Huck.
Update (Bryan): I’ve been looking for an appropriate place to post this and inflict our readership with what can only be described as the Hillacackle Funk. Blame me for posting it here, and blame SeeDubya for producing it in the first place.
Update: Mary Katharine likes Obama and, per her Townhall pedigree, Romney to win. Plus, a surprising third for Fred!
Update: “I say this with all compassion, and I say this with love and respect for all of you who support Huckabee. But how dare you compare Mike Huckabee to Ronald Reagan. That is simply intellectually vapid, and it’s grasping at straws.”
Update: On MSNBC, Pat Buchanan asks whether Obama would be a serious contender if he wasn’t black.
Update: Hope for Fredheads?
Update: With just five of 1781 precincts reporting, Silky leads. There are reports in the comments of huge turnout among Democrats, at least, which probably bodes well for Obama.
Update: The state Democratic website is loading like a dream, replete with auto-refresh. The GOP site won’t load at all. Wonderful.
Politico’s posting the results via auto-refresh on its own homepage. One percent of the precincts are reporting.
Update: Lots of reports of heavy turnout, pointing towards big nights for Huck and the Messiah. Maybe a very big night for the Messiah, in fact.
Update: If exit polls are notoriously unreliable, entrance polls must be that much more so. Or so we can hope.
Update: With slightly more than 10% of the Democratic precincts reporting, here’s how it looks:
Senator John Edwards : 34.24%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.12%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.28%
Update (Bryan): I have to say that so far Politico’s front-page numbers are totally useless. They still have Romney at 0% with 7% precincts reporting, for starters.
Update: NBC’s early results are in line with the entrance polls — Huck’s up.
Update: Turnout is massive; ABC says Obama’s people are starting to wonder about a romp. Rudy, meanwhile, appears to be headed for sixth place.
Update: “Registration at one precinct at the museum was approaching 40 percent before the cut-off. That would be four times the amount the Democratic precinct chairman was expecting.”
Update (bp): I drew the short straw so I’m watching MSNBC. Chris Matthews just made a half interesting point. After all the expectations, Hillary could still win by a point and still “lose” as long as Edwards and Obama tie for second.
Update: Only 15% reporting, but Fox has seen enough — they’re calling it for Huck.
Update: With a little more than 33% of precincts in:
Senator Barack Obama : 33.30%
Senator John Edwards : 32.12%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.80%
Update: Half the precincts are in but she’s still just two points off the pace.
Update: The Times says Polk County is neck and neck despite having been expected to break hard for Hillary.
Update: The Clinton legacy hangs by a thread — NBC says it’s Obama’s night.
Update: Don’t look now but with about 85% in, the Glacier is seven points back and fading.
Update: With 78% reporting, Fred’s just a shade behind McCain, both with 13%. Hmmm.










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BRUTAL!
Obama 38% Clinton 29%
The Clintonistas have crashed and burned as I predicted!
.
.
Fred at 4th will drop out. He has no chance in NH with McCain strength there.
Mcguyver on January 3, 2008 at 10:32 PM
LOL more Ron Paul chat postings
Ya cant make this stuff up folks!
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:32 PM
Oh man look at the old witch Madiline Aldull behind the Hildabeast
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 10:32 PM
Y’know Obama will be great for conservatives.
He’ll deliver the deathblow to the Clintons. And then go on to screw up the country for 4 years.
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:33 PM
“One again the country of values and ideals”? From a Clinton?
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:33 PM
Remember 2004 in Iowa?
Kerry 38%
Edwards 32%
Dean 18%
Gephardt 11%
Kucinich 1%
Hmm? Stay the course Fred!
Mojave Mark on January 3, 2008 at 10:34 PM
yep, Fred needed a better showing tonight. Just goes to show ya, you can’t wait for the voters to come to you.
You got to ask for their vote!
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 10:34 PM
More Ron Paul
LOL
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:34 PM
New Hampshire was never part of the Thompson strategy, just as nothing before Nevada and Florida is part of Giuliani’s, and Giuliani isn’t exactly sitting on a pile of cash anymore.
Countering that, Iowa wasn’t exactly part of McCain’s. My best guess is Thompson holds on until South Carolina.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 10:34 PM
I’m pretty sure Hillary’s spinning it as not so much she couldn’t win, but people who’d support her just couldn’t show up. And here she goes “The American people need a President who is their champion”.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:34 PM
Chris Dodd has dropped out.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:35 PM
@ broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:34 PM
TO be fair, I am hearing about some eff ups in Iowa as well.
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 10:35 PM
Hell, why shouldn’t they? Both parties are about to nominate pro-amnesty candidates, so obviously the voters are not willing to hold politicians accountable on the issue.
thirteen28 on January 3, 2008 at 10:35 PM
Nope, he’s not putting any effort into NH. The make or break will be in SC.
P. James Moriarty on January 3, 2008 at 10:36 PM
36 votes separate McCain and Fred. Come onnnn…
MadisonConservative on January 3, 2008 at 10:36 PM
Ah, give them a break. The kids need their dreams. I had Humphrey.
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:36 PM
Dodd’s out.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:36 PM
Big winners tonight?
Illegal aliens, jihadists.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:36 PM
Broker, your Ron Paul comment updates are hilarious!!!!
Dodd is toast. YAY.
NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 10:37 PM
It will be interesting to see if either of his voters go to another candidate.
dedalus on January 3, 2008 at 10:37 PM
yes, that right too. And he has a good chance there. But a better showing tonight might have made a big differance in donations. He needs cash right now. 2 mill ain’t going far.
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 10:37 PM
Oh great, now we have to listen to Huck pontificate on his status as the Jesus candidate.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 10:38 PM
John McCain 12,520
Fred Thompson 12,484
I’d say that was close.
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:38 PM
seriously, lets get a grip here guys. Politics is a team sport, Huck is atleast on the right team. the alternative would be a President Obama/hillary with a Cabinet of Janet Reno’s and Dem Congress, Dem Senate with Dem Congress and atleast 2 SCOTUS nominees.
jp on January 3, 2008 at 10:38 PM
Aw, Shucks
NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 10:38 PM
Watch the Orange Bowl, turned into a great game.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:39 PM
Gawd.
Heeeeeeeeeere’s Gomer.
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:39 PM
Whoa, is that Chucks wife
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 10:39 PM
Chuck Norris’s teeth are distracting me
Keli on January 3, 2008 at 10:39 PM
Senator Barack Obama : 37.55%
Senator John Edwards : 29.86%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.40%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.09%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.13%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1722 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:39 PM
That’s what the mute button’s for.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 10:40 PM
Down boy!
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:40 PM
That was true before Huckaboom. Now Fred (or Giuliani) has no chance anywhere with this Huck madness.
Mcguyver on January 3, 2008 at 10:40 PM
Chuck Norris wife looks like a Fox News babe
jp on January 3, 2008 at 10:41 PM
Chuck’s wife is hot. Makes it easier to watch the Huckabee speech.
dedalus on January 3, 2008 at 10:41 PM
Yup.
CrimsonFisted on January 3, 2008 at 10:41 PM
@ jp on January 3, 2008 at 10:38 PM
No, he isnt on the right team. If anything he is worse than any democrat. The things he says, the things he doesnt know, the things he would change in this country, unimaginable. I would vote for nearly ANYONE before Huckabee.
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 10:41 PM
Paulnuts find a diamond in the rough
YAY they beat a guy that didnt even run in Iowa!!!
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:43 PM
I’m sorry but the Hucksters wife is so ugly the cameras pan away from her when she squeezes in. Tightens up to ridiculous on the Huck when she’s there. Mindboggling ugly I’m telling you. There’s been 1 picture of her get thru the filters and the sensors. Butt ugly.
Griz on January 3, 2008 at 10:43 PM
Have not heard a word he said. She needs to be at all his speeches
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 10:44 PM
FREDS BACK UP OVER MCCAIN 85percent
NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 10:44 PM
That’s what I have been saying. They should be happy. They placed. They placed low, but they placed. Now it is on to NH and victory!
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:45 PM
Given Huck-A-Boom is going to make a late New Hampshire appearance, it’s a question of whether anybody wants to stick around to take what will be left of Romney’s support.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 10:45 PM
I’m. Going. To. Vomit.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:46 PM
There’s a debate coming up, right?
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:46 PM
Huck’s prairie fire metaphor works a little better than Edwards’ tidal wave.
dedalus on January 3, 2008 at 10:46 PM
Ok Allah, if you want to have your well deserved Shaden freud please go ahead, you deserve it.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:46 PM
Fred’s back up by 1 percent. Not that it matters. But I was really hoping he’d hit 15 percent.
wccawa on January 3, 2008 at 10:47 PM
That didn’t stop Wile E. Huckabee in Iowa, did it? We didn’t stop Wile E. Huckabee in Iowa, did we?
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 10:47 PM
I’m. Going. To. Vomit.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:46 PM
NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 10:47 PM
huck is babbling.
CrimsonFisted on January 3, 2008 at 10:47 PM
Huck wants to give everything to everyone.
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:48 PM
Huck sez:
1) I love Iowa.
wait for it, wait for it…..
2) People are more important than the purse.
Still waiting for it….
3) He wants to be the uniter.
Well, he got in “convictions” and “sacred trust”….
4) We did this for the unborn.
Ahhhhh…GK Chesterton, Christian apologist….
Oh that’s it baby!!! God thanks you for your support of the Jesus candidate!!!
Was it good for you too?
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 10:48 PM
If Huck thinks he’s been attacked up until now, wait until Romney, Rudy, etc. start kicking it up a notch.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:48 PM
Good. Let the country get a real close look at this orc and his, um…. wife.
wccawa on January 3, 2008 at 10:49 PM
McCain – 13.14%
Thompson – 13.45%
P. James Moriarty on January 3, 2008 at 10:49 PM
Lol Kirsten Powers. What happened to your girl?
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:49 PM
I know what he says, doesn’t mean he really believes it. Its politics, its a PR game and sometimes you have to read the tea leaves.
can’t argue with his appeal I don’t think, its an elect-ability thing.
Huck, if elected, isn’t going to be siding with the Dems and making policy with them all the time, probably a minority of the time like bush has. Your either going to get a Center-Right Potus or for atleast 2 years a hard left president given make up of congress, until the Repubs sweep up in 2010, which would then force that Dem president to govern Center-Left like CLinton did after 1994
jp on January 3, 2008 at 10:49 PM
From AP via Politico:
85% precincts reporting
Rudy 3.48%
Huck 33.39%
Hunter .44%
McCain 13.14%
Paul 9.75%
Romney 25.35%
Fred 13.45%
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:50 PM
LIKEABILITY! What hapened to substance?
Gatordoug on January 3, 2008 at 10:50 PM
Fred back in third by 313 votes!
MadisonConservative on January 3, 2008 at 10:50 PM
Stay in there, Fred – huckleberry’s a putz, and we all know it.
thebookkeeper on January 3, 2008 at 10:50 PM
Lol well done and I will ad to that.
“President Huckabee, your lack of force on al queda and refusal to secure the borders has caused a nuclear weapon to just go off in New York what do you have to say about that”
President Huckabee “Hey I told you I would stop stem cell research”
Perfect
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:51 PM
KP, spinning Hildabeast’s butt kickin
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 10:51 PM
@ jp on January 3, 2008 at 10:49 PM
Explain his ethics and the fact that he is a religious nutbag with some of the things he says. Those are the main reasons he will never get my vote.
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 10:51 PM
Ron Paul should be calling up Giuliani to laugh at him. Seriously. I would.
MadisonConservative on January 3, 2008 at 10:51 PM
This is gonna sound so shallow, and I’ve heard it here before, but…
I can not for the life of me imagine a “President Huckabee.”
One of my best friends is named “Huckaby,” and ever since I’ve known her, she has hated that name.
Go figger.
wccawa on January 3, 2008 at 10:51 PM
Fred stay in 3rd! I already missed one part of my prediction, lets not make it two!
Spirit of 1776 on January 3, 2008 at 10:51 PM
You can knock Huck all you want but keep Chesterton out of this.
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:52 PM
Damn KP has her slutty look going on. God love her.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:53 PM
Why, because he has a capital R next to his name?
He’s not one my team.
2Brave2Bscared on January 3, 2008 at 10:53 PM
You’re also going to get a painfully ignorant man.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:53 PM
It died in 1960.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 10:53 PM
on*
2Brave2Bscared on January 3, 2008 at 10:53 PM
Dude.
SouthernDem on January 3, 2008 at 10:55 PM
I blew the top 2 on the ‘Rat end (inverted Obama and Edwards), as well as how much Huckabee would win by. I also blew Paul in 4th and Giuliani in 7th.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 10:55 PM
Huck’s no good in NH. He will blow out Fred in all the other states though.
It’s the Giuliani’s bust that is the bigger story of tonight after the Huck madness.
Mitt wants it too bad to drop out anywhere, anytime OR stop spending.
The big story after tonight is, it’s a race between Huck and Mitt.
McCain is only minimally good in NH and nowhere else.
Bloomberg or Hillary will run as an Independent after Obama gets nominated.
The president elect will be the immigration hawk whether Republican or Conservative/Independent (not Bloomberg).
Mcguyver on January 3, 2008 at 10:55 PM
Huckabee should enjoy the lime light tonight, because there won’t be an evangelical base the size of Iowa’s in any primary state.
sonnyspats1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:56 PM
Well, Iowa drank the Huck kool aid. Let’s see what the rest of the country thinks.
Dem top three:
Obama, Edwards, Hillary
Repub top three:
Huck (gag), Romney, Fred
I would have obviously preferred that Fred peeled some Huck voters away, but I’m thinking now that may not be such a bad thing. But at least we’re getting a little order here.
And I repeat: I am SO glad Iowa is over.
wccawa on January 3, 2008 at 10:56 PM
TV, mass media….
which is why a Reagan was so rare
jp on January 3, 2008 at 10:56 PM
This could be wild
Iowa – Huckabee
NH – McCain
SC- Thompson
Fla – Guiliani
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:57 PM
I’m not knocking Chesterton. I’m knocking Huck for dragging him out and dusting him off to pander to the evangelicals.
And I’m not really knocking evangelicals. They will be a force to be reckoned with.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 10:58 PM
No, just a lot of moderates.
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:59 PM
true, but that’ll depend more on what he does vs. what he says.
jp on January 3, 2008 at 10:59 PM
Since you’re so eager to play the expectation game on Thompson’s grave, let me ask you this:
Can Romney really survive a weak 2nd and a possible 4th (that’s right, 4th) in two states he had bought and paid for just a month and a half ago?
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 10:59 PM
God help us!
Gatordoug on January 3, 2008 at 11:00 PM
I remember many commenters on Hot Air six months ago wishing conservative christians would come into the race because they thought McCain or Rudy would run the table. Well now they have, now they have.
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 11:00 PM
Actually, that is a most excellent question. I had not thought of that before.
Hmmm…
wccawa on January 3, 2008 at 11:01 PM
From AP via Politico:
86% precincts reporting
Rudy 3.48%
Huck 33.39%
Hunter .44%
McCain 13.15%
Paul 9.74%
Romney 25.37%
Fred 13.43%
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 11:01 PM
Don’t know, but it shows money can’t buy everything.
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 11:02 PM
Huck’s got a problem. He won just 14% of non-Evangelical voters, according to CNN. The next states have fewer than Iowa.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 11:03 PM
That could be great for the GOP. In a four-way, no one can go negative because the target loses, but so does the negative campaigner. But the candidates stay sharp.
On the Democrat side, Silky will fade as the anti-Beast vote coalesces. In a two-way, it does pay to go negative, because there is no third candidate who gains. That means lots of sound bites and bad images of the eventual candidate in front of voters eyes. And the Beast is just waiting for the chance to go negative, because that is her inner child beast.
pedestrian on January 3, 2008 at 11:03 PM
you know, the whole “Likeability” vs. “Substance” thing in relation to our Pop-Culture and TV raises an interesting question.
are advances in Technology, Prosperity, Science, etc., ultimately making us dumber in the thinking dept?
jp on January 3, 2008 at 11:03 PM
I cannot and will not vote for any one of these turncoat scumbags. I’m writing someone in and leaving the poll in good spirits……
Oh, gawd. It’s Scarface and Sheepo on FOX News. Time to change the channel. I’ve done enough yelling at the TV for the night.
MrC_5150 on January 3, 2008 at 11:04 PM
On a side note. This really is a great day and a historic moment. Voters in Iowa, WHITE voters in the heartland of America, that MSNBC and Andrea Kramer and Chris Matthews says is inherently racist.
Voted for the first black candidate overwhelmingly.
How would you like your crow served??
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 11:05 PM
Making us less attentive, more self-centered, ruder, and not as thoughful for sure. Everyone is in a hurry, I call it the 30-second mindset.
Gatordoug on January 3, 2008 at 11:06 PM
Down the line here, ‘cept I thought Obama would max out at +5. Very impressive night for him.
And I totally blew the Huck/Mitt call. I thought Mitt would squeak by him. I knew that Pat Robertson carried it in ’88 on the back of the Evang’s and I knew the size of the crowds Huck was speaking to, but I talked myself into believe his Clintonianisms would catch him in a state where they spend so much time pressing the flesh. Man, I missed that call!
Spirit of 1776 on January 3, 2008 at 11:07 PM
Holy crap Obama sounds like MLK. And I dont make that statement easily.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 11:09 PM
To my way of thinking, once you cross Huckabee off the top of the list, the remaining results more accurately reflect the intentions of those voters in Iowa who chose their candidate on factors other than Christian identity.
FloatingRock on January 3, 2008 at 11:09 PM
Did anybody catch Silky’s neverending speech!
canopfor on January 3, 2008 at 11:10 PM
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