Open thread: Raucous caucus!

posted at 7:17 pm on January 3, 2008 by Allahpundit

Iowans are en route to their precinct meetings as we speak. Things get going in earnest at 7:30 p.m. ET, as the Democratic assemblies are called to order, and then the hard business begins at eight. The GOP should be done within the hour, although tabulation may take awhile; the Democrats could be at it for hours beyond that given the vagaries of their “viability” system. Let the Des Moines Register explain it all to you in handy dandy graphic form.

Precinct results will be posted at the Republican and Democratic state party websites but you’re probably better off with Drudge or the Register if you can’t wait for me to update. Naturally the cable news nets are going wall to wall; if you prefer your coverage unadulterated, C-SPAN and C-SPAN2 are all over it. I’ll probably stick with this thread for awhile and then break off into separate posts as big news happens. Check back for updates, and of course feel free to share info in the comments.

As one prominent Republican put it, it’s in “the hands of the good Lord and the people of Iowa now.” No, it wasn’t Huck.

Update (Bryan): I’ve been looking for an appropriate place to post this and inflict our readership with what can only be described as the Hillacackle Funk. Blame me for posting it here, and blame SeeDubya for producing it in the first place.

Update: Mary Katharine likes Obama and, per her Townhall pedigree, Romney to win. Plus, a surprising third for Fred!

Update: “I say this with all compassion, and I say this with love and respect for all of you who support Huckabee. But how dare you compare Mike Huckabee to Ronald Reagan. That is simply intellectually vapid, and it’s grasping at straws.”

Update: On MSNBC, Pat Buchanan asks whether Obama would be a serious contender if he wasn’t black.

Update: Hope for Fredheads?

Update: With just five of 1781 precincts reporting, Silky leads. There are reports in the comments of huge turnout among Democrats, at least, which probably bodes well for Obama.

Update: The state Democratic website is loading like a dream, replete with auto-refresh. The GOP site won’t load at all. Wonderful.

Politico’s posting the results via auto-refresh on its own homepage. One percent of the precincts are reporting.

Update: Lots of reports of heavy turnout, pointing towards big nights for Huck and the Messiah. Maybe a very big night for the Messiah, in fact.

Update: If exit polls are notoriously unreliable, entrance polls must be that much more so. Or so we can hope.

Update: With slightly more than 10% of the Democratic precincts reporting, here’s how it looks:

Senator John Edwards : 34.24%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.12%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.28%

Update (Bryan): I have to say that so far Politico’s front-page numbers are totally useless. They still have Romney at 0% with 7% precincts reporting, for starters.

Update: NBC’s early results are in line with the entrance polls — Huck’s up.

Update: Turnout is massive; ABC says Obama’s people are starting to wonder about a romp. Rudy, meanwhile, appears to be headed for sixth place.

Update: “Registration at one precinct at the museum was approaching 40 percent before the cut-off. That would be four times the amount the Democratic precinct chairman was expecting.”

Update (bp): I drew the short straw so I’m watching MSNBC. Chris Matthews just made a half interesting point. After all the expectations, Hillary could still win by a point and still “lose” as long as Edwards and Obama tie for second.

Update: Only 15% reporting, but Fox has seen enough — they’re calling it for Huck.

Update: With a little more than 33% of precincts in:

Senator Barack Obama : 33.30%
Senator John Edwards : 32.12%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.80%

Update: Half the precincts are in but she’s still just two points off the pace.

Update: The Times says Polk County is neck and neck despite having been expected to break hard for Hillary.

Update: The Clinton legacy hangs by a thread — NBC says it’s Obama’s night.

Update: Don’t look now but with about 85% in, the Glacier is seven points back and fading.

Update: With 78% reporting, Fred’s just a shade behind McCain, both with 13%. Hmmm.

Blowback

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Rudy sez:

1) No regrets for skipping Iowa.
2) Hucks win is no surprise.
3) Rudy says he is in good shape still.

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 10:05 PM

Look, all I am saying is sounds like some want the evangelicals to stay home. If they do, Republicans lose, just like if the Kos crowds stays home, Dems lose.

WoosterOh on January 3, 2008 at 10:04 PM

No…if evangelicals force Huck as the GOP nominee, Republicans lose.

flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 10:06 PM

Well with a 4th place finish for McCain and leading in NH I guess they can say he did do well.

broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:06 PM

From AP via Politico:
72% precincts reporting

Rudy 3.6%
Huck 33.94%
Hunter .43%
McCain 13.31%
Paul 10.09%
Romney 25.03%
Fred 13.6%

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:06 PM

WoosterOh on January 3, 2008 at 10:04 PM

You are right, we do need them, they just piss me off during this process.

conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 10:06 PM

Rudy, your plan to become president is sub-moronic. Go back to NYC and have another divorce.

Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:07 PM

Alan Colmes is a such a frickin’ tool. GOD!

SouthernGent on January 3, 2008 at 10:08 PM

Senator Barack Obama : 37.30%
Senator John Edwards : 29.97%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.53%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.12%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1677 of 1781

(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:08 PM

29.53 for clinton…she’ll get down and rounded to 29%

Obama 38

Edwards 30

Hilldawg 29

That hurts…this isn’t just a three way tie. Obama smoked her.

sunny on January 3, 2008 at 10:08 PM

“would you have captured Bin Laden by now?” – AC to Rudy?

WTH

F15Mech on January 3, 2008 at 10:08 PM

212,000 showed up at caucuses tonight.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:08 PM

Washington Post…

According to surveys of voters leaving the polls, Bush won 79 percent of the 26.5 million evangelical votes and 52 percent of the 31 million Catholic votes. Turnout soared in conservative areas such as Ohio’s Warren County, where Bush picked up 18,000 more votes than in 2000, and local activists said churches were the reason.

That ONE county, without those 18,000 EVANGELICALS, Edwards is running his re-election campaign.

WoosterOh on January 3, 2008 at 10:09 PM

Rudy, your plan to become president is sub-moronic. Go back to NYC and have another divorce.

Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:07 PM

Lovely.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:09 PM

Well with a 4th place finish for McCain and leading in NH I guess they can say he did do well.

broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:06 PM

The key was Mitt placing 2nd in Iowa, that is what McCain needed.

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:09 PM

They dont want to hear anything bad about him. He is GODS choice and NOTHING else matters.

broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:03 PM

I don’t want to believe that, but it sure seems like Hucks values are really no different than Mitts other than their specific religions. Considering Huck took off after the Jesus candidate remarks, I fear that you are correct. Many Iowan reps are evangelical zealots who don’t know squat about what it takes to be the most powerful country on earth. I guess they think God will make it all work out if they elect Huck to office. Sounds like Old Testemant biblical times don’t it?

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 10:10 PM

Ladies and Gentleman, your next president. President Obama.

broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:00 PM

Hillary was Republicans best chance. If Obama is the dim nom, Republicans will very likely lose. If The High Reverend Huckster is the Republican nominee it will be the biggest landslide loss in history.

MB4 on January 3, 2008 at 10:10 PM

I would vote for Mitt or Fred. I would hold my nose and vote for Rudy. I doubt very seriously that I would ever vote for McCain or Huckabee.

davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 10:10 PM

John Roberts just said Fred currently intends to stay in the race, but there’s no published schedule for tomorrow.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:11 PM

From AP via Politico:
74% precincts reporting

Rudy 3.6%
Huck 33.91%
Hunter .43%
McCain 13.31%
Paul 10.01%
Romney 25.19%
Fred 13.55%

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:11 PM

VOMIT INDUCING people on Fox news.

muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 10:11 PM

Bush wont he Amish vote also.

WoosterOh on January 3, 2008 at 10:12 PM

Senator Barack Obama : 37.36%
Senator John Edwards : 29.97%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.45%

Bang!!!!!111!!! Bill just got a punch in the face for his stupidty on the campaign trail.

sunny on January 3, 2008 at 10:12 PM

From MSNBC:
76% precincts reporting

Huck 34.0%
Romney 25%
Fred 14%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Rudy 4%
Hunter 0%

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:12 PM

Hillary only received 30% of the women’s vote. So much for Dick Morris’ theory…

GogglesPisano on January 3, 2008 at 10:13 PM

I’d rather see Obama in office than any RINO, that includes Mitt.

Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:13 PM

That 720 isn’t votes – it’s “delegates”. We won’t know the final actual vote count for Dems.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 9:53 PM

AHHHHH!!! Thanks!

CrimsonFisted on January 3, 2008 at 10:13 PM

@ Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:13 PM

I am right there with you. I would vote for Obama before voting for Huckabee.

muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 10:14 PM

Edwards…you realize there are 49 other states where you have no chance?

Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:14 PM

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 10:10 PM

Exactly. The difference, Mitt didnt pound his cross on the TV. I tell you this, if Huck wins the nomination, I will vote for Obama because if a socialist is going to run this country it might as well be the Democracts that take the blame.

broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:15 PM

Edwards: “Status quo lost and change won”

Riiiiggggghhhhhtttttt….

sunny on January 3, 2008 at 10:15 PM

Breck’s job is to be Osama’s Veep.

steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 10:15 PM

Obv we’re looking at a Huckabee/McCain showdown for the Republican nomination. The evangelical lemmings cannot get themselves to vote for a social moderate just as they can’t get themselves to vote for a mormon, so that’s what we’re looking at.

Ladies and gentlemen, you’re modern Republican base!!! Pick your liberal: Fuckabee or McShame.

/gg conservative movement

Patriot33 on January 3, 2008 at 10:15 PM

Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:14 PM

No, he doesn’t. And does he realize the people with more money either came in before him or close to him?

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:16 PM

Why didn’t you pat for it John??????????

sunny on January 3, 2008 at 10:16 PM

@ Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:13 PM

I am right there with you. I would vote for Obama before voting for Huckabee.

muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 10:14 PM

I wouldn’t vote for Obama. Just won’t vote at all unless Fred somehow gets the nomination.

Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:16 PM

pat = pay

sunny on January 3, 2008 at 10:17 PM

Oh good. Now we get to hear Silky’s stories. 3rd one now.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:17 PM

I tell you this, if Huck wins the nomination, I will vote for Obama because if a socialist is going to run this country it might as well be the Democracts that take the blame.

broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:15 PM

Good point. There’s the added bonus that, even if he’s dead wrong on every position, at least I don’t question Obama’s honesty.

flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 10:17 PM

Oh good. Now we get to hear Silky’s stories. 3rd one now.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:17 PM

This might be a bigger day for Edwards than for Obama

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:17 PM

I will force companies to stay in business and employ everyone regardless of whether they make a profit.

sunny on January 3, 2008 at 10:18 PM

Pubbie race for 3rd (76% reporting; AP via Politico) -

Thompson 13.53%
McCain 13.33%

steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 10:18 PM

I will vote for Mitt no sweat
I will vote for McCain a little sweat

Huckabee – No friggin way

broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:18 PM

From MSNBC:
76% precincts reporting

Huck 34.0%
Romney 25%
Fred 14%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Rudy 4%
Hunter 0%

is pauls turnout, while 5th place, indicative that in the General election running as 3rd party Constitution, he could get as much as 10% of Republican/protest vote? If so, would he pull close to an equal amount from the hard-left that support him? and balance out?

jp on January 3, 2008 at 10:18 PM

Oh puke, Edwards is even worse than Huckabee. I can’t believe how he is exploiting people with cleft palates, et al.

And don’t you dare mention TR, Silky. I know a bit about Teddy Roosevelt, and you are not TR.

You’re not FDR either.

Buy Danish on January 3, 2008 at 10:18 PM

Please. Someone send word to Edwards that he got horse whipped by Obama.

Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:18 PM

This was just sent to me from my BIL. I chuckled, and then decided to send it to you all:

In a news conference Deanna Favre announced she will be the starting QB for the Packers this coming Sunday.

Deanna asserts that she is qualified to be starting QB because she has spent the past 16 years married to Brett while he played QB for the Packers.

During this period of time she became familiar with the definition of a corner blitz, and is now completely comfortable with other terminology of the Packers offense.

A survey of Packers fans shows that 50% of those polled supported the
move.

Does this sounds idiotic and unbelievable to you? Well, Hillary
Clinton makes the same claims as to why she is qualified to be President and
50% of democrats polled agreed.

She has never run a City, County, or State!

When told Hillary Clinton has experience because she has 8 years in
the white house, Dick Morris stated, “So has the pastry chef”.

lsutiger on January 3, 2008 at 10:19 PM

From AP via Politico:
76% precincts reporting

Rudy 3.57%
Huck 33.96%
Hunter .43%
McCain 13.33%
Paul 9.9%
Romney 25.28%
Fred 13.53%

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:19 PM

Soon we’ll be on: My third cousin, twice removed, needed a surgery on his ankle, but couldn’t get the American taxpayers to pay for it in the richest country in the world. Why? Why?

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:19 PM

Oh good. Now we get to hear Silky’s stories. 3rd one now.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:17 PM

All that’s missing is the little crippled child who gets out of her wheelchair and walks again.

Buy Danish on January 3, 2008 at 10:20 PM

Fox has McCain over fred 78% in

sunny on January 3, 2008 at 10:20 PM

Where is the remote? I gotta have the mute button. Silky is making me sick.

Where is his love child woman?

NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 10:21 PM

Criminy…does Edwards ever shut up??

flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 10:21 PM

Pubbie race for 3rd (78% reporting; Fox News, so not closer than whole percentages) -

McCain 13%+
Thompson 13%

<expletive deleted>!

steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 10:21 PM

Aw crud. Fred and McCain are tied now.

Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:21 PM

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:19 PM

Okay, I’m weeping/laughing now.

Buy Danish on January 3, 2008 at 10:21 PM

Uh, does Silky realize he lost to Obama?

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:22 PM

is pauls turnout, while 5th place, indicative that in the General election running as 3rd party Constitution, he could get as much as 10% of Republican/protest vote? If so, would he pull close to an equal amount from the hard-left that support him? and balance out?

jp on January 3, 2008 at 10:18 PM

Chances are Paul pulled in many Libertarians, Independents and 1st time voters (who would normally either not vote or vote Democratic)

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:22 PM

I can’t wait to listen to the radio tomorrow. The last true place of conservatism.

Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:22 PM

John Roberts just said Fred currently intends to stay in the race, but there’s no published schedule for tomorrow.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:11 PM

As opposed to, say…

???

wccawa on January 3, 2008 at 10:22 PM

And all the way to the White House.

Yeaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhrg@

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:23 PM

Hey, maybe Hillary has cankles because she couldn’t afford an operation as a child!

Buy Danish on January 3, 2008 at 10:23 PM

OMG…I thought Edwards was gonna do a Dean!

flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 10:23 PM

OMG! WTF!

Silky is making Jack’s raging bile duct spew

lsutiger on January 3, 2008 at 10:23 PM

‘Rat race for 2nd (96%; Fox News, so not closer than whole percentages) -

Edwards 30%
Clinton 29%

steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 10:23 PM

Oh, good. Cankles is up next.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:24 PM

For you “I would vote for Obama over Huck”

A little memory lane

WoosterOh on January 3, 2008 at 10:24 PM

Senator Barack Obama : 37.50%
Senator John Edwards : 29.89%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.42%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.10%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.14%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1713 of 1781

(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:25 PM

A tidal wave started in Iowa? Edwards needs sharper metaphors. He should call Frank Luntz.

dedalus on January 3, 2008 at 10:25 PM

Fred tied with McCain at 13%.

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 10:25 PM

lol…i am jack’s pulsating boyle

sunny on January 3, 2008 at 10:25 PM

Well…let’s see how Glacier spins this.

Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:25 PM

CNN: McCain 14%, Thompson 13%.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:25 PM

McCain vs Thompson 13.46% vs 13.42%

P. James Moriarty on January 3, 2008 at 10:25 PM

@ WoosterOh on January 3, 2008 at 10:24 PM

Huckabee called me an “evildoer” because I dont believe in god. Your turn, top that.

muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 10:26 PM

I thought Edwards was going to chanel the spirit of an unborn child.

Ive been robbed.

Come on Fred pick up McShamnesty!

NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 10:26 PM

From AP via Politico:
78% precincts reporting

Rudy 3.57%
Huck 33.86%
Hunter .42%
McCain 13.46%
Paul 9.81%
Romney 25.45%
Fred 13.42%

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:26 PM

Who’s the fatty [pregnant?] young chick standing up with Edwards at his exit speech in IOWA?

Griz on January 3, 2008 at 10:26 PM

is pauls turnout, while 5th place, indicative that in the General election running as 3rd party Constitution, he could get as much as 10% of Republican/protest vote? If so, would he pull close to an equal amount from the hard-left that support him? and balance out?

jp on January 3, 2008 at 10:18 PM

No. A significant number of the primary vote will go to the Republican nominee, though not as much as in past years because the presumtive nominee is now Rudi McAbee. I would expect him to draw about 5% from Pubbies.

steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 10:26 PM

o no it’s………

sunny on January 3, 2008 at 10:26 PM

Hillary looks like cr@p.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:26 PM

Ok its time for fun LOL. Ron Paul forum chat posts!

a kindergarden could have rigged that mess..shameful..amazing..the placing just like the media predicted..a walking corpse comes in ahead of RP in 4th..hard to swallow

LOL

another post about Obama winning

was it the Iowa caucus or the Kenya caucus?

LOL

broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:26 PM

Channel, I mean.

NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 10:27 PM

Oh goody! Here comes Hildebeasts spin! Schadenfreude!!! (I know I never spell it right!)

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 10:27 PM

McCain vs Thompson 13.46% vs 13.42%

P. James Moriarty on January 3, 2008 at 10:25 PM

Now ya gotta call that close.

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:27 PM

How many staffers did Hillary ream out before giving this speech?

Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:27 PM

Obama, watch your back. Hillary’s “congratulating” you. That can’t bode well.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 10:27 PM

Beware of the Government Media Complex.

While The MSM was distracting you with wall to wall Caucusing, U.S. Senate Turns Back On Border Fence

In a quiet act of defiance, the Senate approved a $555 billion omnibus spending bill that removed legal requirements mandating the federal government fund 854 miles of a double layer border fence spanning America’s southwestern border.

The funding requirement was codified into law when Congress passed, and President George W. Bush signed, the Secure Fence Act (SFA) in 2006.

When the spending bill, which combines appropriations for a number of federal agencies, reached the Senate, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Tex.) attached S.Amdt. 2466 to the measure in order to silently gut the SFA’s spending requirement.

The Hutchison amendment reads, “Nothing in this paragraph shall require the secretary of homeland security to install fencing, physical barriers, roads, lighting, cameras and sensors in a particular location along an international border of the United States, if the secretary determines that the use or placement of such resources is not the most appropriate means to achieve and maintain operational control over the international border at such location.” Thus, critics argue the amendment results in a de facto repeal of the SFA….

MrC_5150 on January 3, 2008 at 10:27 PM

For those interested, VT (#99) just put a WWE slamdown on UK’s QB

lsutiger on January 3, 2008 at 10:28 PM

In case anyone is confused about the fable of “The Fox and the sour grapes”, the hildebeast is engaged full bore in it right now.

She is acting like she never really wanted the win. Ergo, the Iowan grape is probably sour (since I can’t get it).

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 10:28 PM

broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:26 PM

You mean they are disappointed over there? What did they expect?

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:28 PM

Bill has major red face. Hilldawg beat down or drinks.

sunny on January 3, 2008 at 10:29 PM

Lol these dems coming out with victory, Im waiting for Cam Cameron from the Dolphins to come out for a victory parade for the way his Dolphins season went.

broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:29 PM

o no it’s………

sunny on January 3, 2008 at 10:26 PM

…yes, it’s the Sta-Puft Marshmallow Man.

flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 10:29 PM

Senator Barack Obama : 37.53%
Senator John Edwards : 29.88%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.41%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.09%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.14%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1717 of 1781

(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 10:29 PM

Dammit; I did not want to revisit a hard question for me to answer the first time back in June (whether conservatism was out of gas). If that McCain mo holds up, guess I not only am going to have to do so, but revise the question to whether it is dead.

steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 10:29 PM

One thing I can definitely conclude from these figures, no matter how the final figures shake out. Iowa republicans are absolutely full of sh!t when they say immigration is one of their most important issues when it looks like two of the most belligerent amnesty shills are going to finish 1st and likely 3rd.

Oh yeah, btw, f**k you, Iowa.

thirteen28 on January 3, 2008 at 10:30 PM

MrC_5150 on January 3, 2008 at 10:27 PM

how depressing.

CrimsonFisted on January 3, 2008 at 10:30 PM

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 10:28 PM

Speaking of grapes, almost done with my bottle of wine.

“raises glass to Fred” Nice try bro, perhaps in 2012.

broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:30 PM

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