Open thread: Raucous caucus!
posted at 7:17 pm on January 3, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Iowans are en route to their precinct meetings as we speak. Things get going in earnest at 7:30 p.m. ET, as the Democratic assemblies are called to order, and then the hard business begins at eight. The GOP should be done within the hour, although tabulation may take awhile; the Democrats could be at it for hours beyond that given the vagaries of their “viability” system. Let the Des Moines Register explain it all to you in handy dandy graphic form.
Precinct results will be posted at the Republican and Democratic state party websites but you’re probably better off with Drudge or the Register if you can’t wait for me to update. Naturally the cable news nets are going wall to wall; if you prefer your coverage unadulterated, C-SPAN and C-SPAN2 are all over it. I’ll probably stick with this thread for awhile and then break off into separate posts as big news happens. Check back for updates, and of course feel free to share info in the comments.
As one prominent Republican put it, it’s in “the hands of the good Lord and the people of Iowa now.” No, it wasn’t Huck.
Update: Mary Katharine likes Obama and, per her Townhall pedigree, Romney to win. Plus, a surprising third for Fred!
Update: “I say this with all compassion, and I say this with love and respect for all of you who support Huckabee. But how dare you compare Mike Huckabee to Ronald Reagan. That is simply intellectually vapid, and it’s grasping at straws.”
Update: On MSNBC, Pat Buchanan asks whether Obama would be a serious contender if he wasn’t black.
Update: Hope for Fredheads?
Update: With just five of 1781 precincts reporting, Silky leads. There are reports in the comments of huge turnout among Democrats, at least, which probably bodes well for Obama.
Update: The state Democratic website is loading like a dream, replete with auto-refresh. The GOP site won’t load at all. Wonderful.
Politico’s posting the results via auto-refresh on its own homepage. One percent of the precincts are reporting.
Update: Lots of reports of heavy turnout, pointing towards big nights for Huck and the Messiah. Maybe a very big night for the Messiah, in fact.
Update: If exit polls are notoriously unreliable, entrance polls must be that much more so. Or so we can hope.
Update: With slightly more than 10% of the Democratic precincts reporting, here’s how it looks:
Senator John Edwards : 34.24%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.12%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.28%
Update (Bryan): I have to say that so far Politico’s front-page numbers are totally useless. They still have Romney at 0% with 7% precincts reporting, for starters.
Update: NBC’s early results are in line with the entrance polls — Huck’s up.
Update: Turnout is massive; ABC says Obama’s people are starting to wonder about a romp. Rudy, meanwhile, appears to be headed for sixth place.
Update: “Registration at one precinct at the museum was approaching 40 percent before the cut-off. That would be four times the amount the Democratic precinct chairman was expecting.”
Update (bp): I drew the short straw so I’m watching MSNBC. Chris Matthews just made a half interesting point. After all the expectations, Hillary could still win by a point and still “lose” as long as Edwards and Obama tie for second.
Update: Only 15% reporting, but Fox has seen enough — they’re calling it for Huck.
Update: With a little more than 33% of precincts in:
Senator Barack Obama : 33.30%
Senator John Edwards : 32.12%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.80%
Update: Half the precincts are in but she’s still just two points off the pace.
Update: The Times says Polk County is neck and neck despite having been expected to break hard for Hillary.
Update: The Clinton legacy hangs by a thread — NBC says it’s Obama’s night.
Update: Don’t look now but with about 85% in, the Glacier is seven points back and fading.
Update: With 78% reporting, Fred’s just a shade behind McCain, both with 13%. Hmmm.
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Full Pubbie rundown – 65% reporting:
Huckabee 33.97%
Romney 24.86%
Thompson 13.73%
McCain 13.17%
Paul 10.22%
Giuliani 3.61%
Hunter 0.43%
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 9:38 PM
Rudy’s back down to 3.61%. Fred is just .6% above McCain. Paul is at 10.22%. Hunter at .4%.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 9:38 PM
Ugly.
Huck vs Obama. That’s a tough one…
askheaves on January 3, 2008 at 9:38 PM
Lets hope Hunter will endorse Fred.
NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 9:38 PM
Shillary just dropped to 30% – 83% reporting
Timothy S. Carlson on January 3, 2008 at 9:39 PM
From AP via Politico:
65% precincts reporting
Rudy 3.61%
Huck 33.97%
Hunter .43%
McCain 13.17%
Paul 10.22%
Romney 24.86%
Fred 13.73%
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:39 PM
I want an investigation because Ron Paul’s numbers dont equal all the times he won internet polls !
/Paulnut
William Amos on January 3, 2008 at 9:39 PM
Senator Barack Obama : 36.72%
Senator John Edwards : 30.19%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.02%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.01%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1502 of 1781
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:40 PM
Some heads are gonna roll over at the Clinton camp.
NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 9:40 PM
@ NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 9:38 PM
Fred could really use his 0%.
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 9:40 PM
I kinda feel for Mitt
jp on January 3, 2008 at 9:40 PM
ABC chimes in with it’s unnecessary snark.
Spirit of 1776 on January 3, 2008 at 9:41 PM
Lol. Evangelical dunce vs a possible anti-christ. Yeah, if that’s the case I’ll write-in vote.
Patriot33 on January 3, 2008 at 9:41 PM
@ William Amos on January 3, 2008 at 9:39 PM
Don’t get all pissy because he is doing well.
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 9:41 PM
There’s something really sweet about Obama 37% and Clinton 30%.
Mcguyver on January 3, 2008 at 9:41 PM
broker1
You would not want a 50% increase in CONSERVATIVE voters on a National level?
WoosterOh on January 3, 2008 at 9:42 PM
@ Patriot33 on January 3, 2008 at 9:41 PM
Obama isnt evangelical is he?
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 9:42 PM
5th place ?
William Amos on January 3, 2008 at 9:43 PM
Hsuicide watch.
pedestrian on January 3, 2008 at 9:43 PM
In front of Rudy, who didn’t try, and Duncan Hunter, who never had a chance.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 9:43 PM
He actually is. Anything in double digits would be good for Paul.
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:43 PM
@ WoosterOh on January 3, 2008 at 9:42 PM
They arent conservative voters. They are people who vote for someone solely on the basis that he has a special relationship with god or some crap like that. The person they are supporting isnt a conservative, how could they be?
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 9:43 PM
He had voters out there, he just didnt make the cut to the caucus. IMO at least a public statement of support would give Fred a little juice in some fashion.
NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 9:44 PM
@ William Amos on January 3, 2008 at 9:43 PM
Within 3% of third.
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 9:44 PM
No you misunderstood. There was a 50% increase in evangelical voters AMONG REPUBLICANS IN IOWA. Which doesnt represent our party nationally.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 9:44 PM
Haaaaa 29.97% Clinton lol.
Just over 70.03% of Iowa Dems vote against her.
sunny on January 3, 2008 at 9:45 PM
WOW look at the ACTUALS! 759 votes for Obama. 631 for Edwards. 618 for Hillary. 4000 for Rob Paul.
What is wrong with this picture?
The talking heads were saying that Obama was trying to get out 200,000 people.
He failed.
CrimsonFisted on January 3, 2008 at 9:45 PM
In a state that chooses Mike Huckabee.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 9:45 PM
I’ll make the popcorn!
NickTx on January 3, 2008 at 9:45 PM
Ron Paul is kicking Julie’s rear end.
MrC_5150 on January 3, 2008 at 9:45 PM
Senator Barack Obama : 36.78%
Senator John Edwards : 30.16%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.92%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.08%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1546 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:45 PM
Im not Rush or even Snerdley but I’m close enough to tell you NOT to worry about Huck.
amend2 on January 3, 2008 at 9:46 PM
@ amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 9:45 PM
Touche
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 9:46 PM
Tonight was a Hucka-bubble. Lotsa luck in New England.
Go Fred. Keep going Fred!Mojave Mark on January 3, 2008 at 9:47 PM
And she spent a fortune in Iowa.
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 9:47 PM
Senator Barack Obama : 36.86%
Senator John Edwards : 30.15%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.87%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.07%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.91%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1562 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:47 PM
Huck 34%
Mitt 25%
Fred 14%
McCain 13%
67% reporting
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 9:47 PM
He’s the latter part of that hypothetical (i.e. possible anti-christ, and I’m not even particularly religious at all).
Patriot33 on January 3, 2008 at 9:47 PM
James Dobson is creaming his panties right about now. WE WILL BE ASSIMILATED!
SouthernGent on January 3, 2008 at 9:47 PM
My wish for the New Year – Paul splits off and runs independent. He’ll take 10% of the Republicans, but he’ll gut the Dhimmis of hippies, truthers and anti-war nuts.
Paul/Kucinich ‘08!
Timothy S. Carlson on January 3, 2008 at 9:47 PM
That was to slam the door and lock up the nomination early.
Looks like Hillary will have to fight to win the democratic nomination now.
If Hillary has any dirt on Obama it will be out by tomorrow
William Amos on January 3, 2008 at 9:48 PM
Brit just said this is “historic” for Obama. 720 people? Historic? Ron Paul got 4000!
CrimsonFisted on January 3, 2008 at 9:49 PM
@ Patriot33 on January 3, 2008 at 9:47 PM
I know, i was insinuating that Huckabee is the antichrist.
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 9:49 PM
I hope all the lamps at Clinton headquarters are nailed down.
Mike Honcho on January 3, 2008 at 9:49 PM
OT: ZZ Top will be performing at halftime of the KU/VT bowl game.
DCA on January 3, 2008 at 9:49 PM
Fixed!
Dayum, what is VT doing!?!?!????
They just got their first score!
I know we sent them to the woodshed, but they prooved themself the rest of the season.
lsutiger on January 3, 2008 at 9:49 PM
I’m not really, he shot his wad tonight, hope he enjoyed it. He won’t win anything else.
Only the same idiots that gave Pat Robertson a win could give Huck one.
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 9:50 PM
CrimsonFisted on January 3, 2008 at 9:49 PM
Dems do it by location. SO 720 locations voted for him. Reps do it by people.
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 9:50 PM
4th platform of Fred’s campaign:
Kick Politico’s Butt
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 9:50 PM
Your misreading that
“Democrats dont report vote totals only how many delegates they get out of the 2,500 that Iowa sends”
William Amos on January 3, 2008 at 9:50 PM
Politico still pushing the “Dump Fred” meme in favor of slouching toward socialism.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 9:51 PM
Who is listening to this moron on Fox from Politico??
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 9:51 PM
Jesus. Look how that Politico tool sucks up for McLame.
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 9:51 PM
I got you, muyoso. I also loll’ed.
askheaves on January 3, 2008 at 9:51 PM
Some asshat from Politico is saying McCain is the big winner of the night…LOL
davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 9:52 PM
67% precincts reporting
Huck 34.0%
Romney 25%
Fred 14%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Rudy 4%
Hunter 0%
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:52 PM
Come to think of it James Dobson does seem kind of Borgish.
Nonfactor on January 3, 2008 at 9:53 PM
According to Politico third is bad for Fred! and fourth is great for McCain and Fox eats it up. Why does Politico want to sink Fred!? Or is there something I’m missing here?
P. James Moriarty on January 3, 2008 at 9:53 PM
If I didn’t know better, I’d swear Politco was in the bag for Giuliani/McCain. Heck, I do know better, and I say they’re in the bag for Giuliani/McCain.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 9:53 PM
That 720 isn’t votes – it’s “delegates”. We won’t know the final actual vote count for Dems.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 9:53 PM
Politico on Fox
“4 republican candidates did well tonight and Fred Thompson wasnt one of them.”
I have officially removed my shortcut to that website.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 9:54 PM
From AP via Politico:
65% precincts reporting
Rudy 3.61%
Huck 33.87%
Hunter .43%
McCain 13.25%
Paul 10.22%
Romney 24.94%
Fred 13.69%
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:54 PM
Thompson’s going to end up in fourth… McCain’s your nominee.
Vizzini on January 3, 2008 at 9:54 PM
Huck 34%
Mitt 25%
Fred 14%
McCain 13%
72% reporting
No change
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 9:54 PM
That was From AP via Politico:
67% precincts reporting
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:54 PM
I think we just found our Politico insider source. What a biased tard.
doriangrey on January 3, 2008 at 9:54 PM
Senator Barack Obama : 37.03%
Senator John Edwards : 30.08%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.70%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.15%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.91%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1611 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:55 PM
Race for 3rd (67% in) – Thompson 13.69%, McCain 13.25%
Fox cheerleading for McCain and ultimately Giuliani.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 9:55 PM
I guess all evangelical voters should just stay home, I think that is what I hear here.
I hope they get the message.
WoosterOh on January 3, 2008 at 9:55 PM
I think a LOT of people in the media will start schilling for McCain even though his conservative credentials are extremely dubious.
davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 9:56 PM
Kick Politico’s
ButtHippie AssMojave Mark on January 3, 2008 at 9:56 PM
wow, obama edged clinton with women…
sunny on January 3, 2008 at 9:57 PM
Basically he is trying to regain whatever credibility he had when he came out with the story.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 9:57 PM
46% of Hucks supporters voted for him because he shares their values. 10% said he didn’t have the experience to be the president.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 9:58 PM
That explains Hillary’s last Iowa ad
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:58 PM
LOL @ “was” by Nina Easton on her husband w/Romney’s campaign. She’s not on the mormon issue though. Good to know Republican voters have their priorities straight.
Patriot33 on January 3, 2008 at 9:58 PM
RIGHT* not “not”.
Patriot33 on January 3, 2008 at 9:58 PM
Nope; with a 2-way or 3-way involving Giuliani and McCain/Huckabee, it’s Giuliani, just as the RNC intended.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 9:58 PM
I
These are the same idiots that jumped ship in the general election in 76 and gave us Jimmy Carter because he was a
“man of god”
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 9:58 PM
I think politico just destroyed whatever credibility they had going into tonight.
flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 9:59 PM
I can’t even watch FOX any more. What crap!
davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 10:00 PM
What is Huckabee’s foreign policy, Wallace?
Oh yeah, that’s right, he doesn’t have one. No need to report that.
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:00 PM
OMG, some of the WORST lip-syncing I have ever seen coming from the VT halftime show.
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 10:00 PM
Ladies and Gentleman, your next president. President Obama.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:00 PM
It’s amazing that Huck doesn’t know diddly about foreign policy, he even gets the details wrong, yet he is the guy they want in the whitehouse.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 10:01 PM
Race for 3rd (AP via Politico – 72% reporting)
Thompson 13.60%
McCain 13.31%
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 10:01 PM
They lost it with me earlier today. But I guess that means I am into “trutherism”
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 10:01 PM
From: http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2008/01/anybody-but-hil.html
Mutual Assured Destruction!
pedestrian on January 3, 2008 at 10:02 PM
The only conservative on Fox is Hannity. Maybe he will put out the obvious that Huck and McCain are frauds.
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:02 PM
Politico didnt have any credibility to destroy, it’s just that now more people know it.
doriangrey on January 3, 2008 at 10:02 PM
I’m not one to bash people of faith, but the evangelicals are going to hand the election to the Dems if they keep this up.
flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 10:03 PM
The fact that Mitt outspent him 10-1 and listening to Huck supporters on Rushs show yesterday it was pathetic. They called in and said :
“Rush you have fallen to the media, what they say about OUR huckabee is nothing but LIES LIES LIES”
They dont want to hear anything bad about him. He is GODS choice and NOTHING else matters.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 10:03 PM
Hannity worshiping Rudy…haha. Good for them. Iowa who?
SouthernGent on January 3, 2008 at 10:04 PM
Well, I was 11 in 1976, though I remember the odd/even days in California in 1979 (I guess 79).
Look, all I am saying is sounds like some want the evangelicals to stay home. If they do, Republicans lose, just like if the Kos crowds stays home, Dems lose.
WoosterOh on January 3, 2008 at 10:04 PM
Politico analyst on Fox:
Thompson and McCain virtually tied. Verdict: Thompson is dead in the water; McCain had a “fantastic night.”
??????
aero on January 3, 2008 at 10:04 PM
I wish Mark Levin would magically appear on Fox and tear these Iowans a new one.
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 10:04 PM
You’ll bet he will. Unfortunately, he’ll ignore the Rudi third of Rudi McAbee.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 10:04 PM
He’s backing Rudy and has him on to kick off the show tonight. Rudy’s not socially conservative.
dedalus on January 3, 2008 at 10:05 PM
I agree!
davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 10:05 PM
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