Open thread: Raucous caucus!
posted at 7:17 pm on January 3, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Iowans are en route to their precinct meetings as we speak. Things get going in earnest at 7:30 p.m. ET, as the Democratic assemblies are called to order, and then the hard business begins at eight. The GOP should be done within the hour, although tabulation may take awhile; the Democrats could be at it for hours beyond that given the vagaries of their “viability” system. Let the Des Moines Register explain it all to you in handy dandy graphic form.
Precinct results will be posted at the Republican and Democratic state party websites but you’re probably better off with Drudge or the Register if you can’t wait for me to update. Naturally the cable news nets are going wall to wall; if you prefer your coverage unadulterated, C-SPAN and C-SPAN2 are all over it. I’ll probably stick with this thread for awhile and then break off into separate posts as big news happens. Check back for updates, and of course feel free to share info in the comments.
As one prominent Republican put it, it’s in “the hands of the good Lord and the people of Iowa now.” No, it wasn’t Huck.
Update: Mary Katharine likes Obama and, per her Townhall pedigree, Romney to win. Plus, a surprising third for Fred!
Update: “I say this with all compassion, and I say this with love and respect for all of you who support Huckabee. But how dare you compare Mike Huckabee to Ronald Reagan. That is simply intellectually vapid, and it’s grasping at straws.”
Update: On MSNBC, Pat Buchanan asks whether Obama would be a serious contender if he wasn’t black.
Update: Hope for Fredheads?
Update: With just five of 1781 precincts reporting, Silky leads. There are reports in the comments of huge turnout among Democrats, at least, which probably bodes well for Obama.
Update: The state Democratic website is loading like a dream, replete with auto-refresh. The GOP site won’t load at all. Wonderful.
Politico’s posting the results via auto-refresh on its own homepage. One percent of the precincts are reporting.
Update: Lots of reports of heavy turnout, pointing towards big nights for Huck and the Messiah. Maybe a very big night for the Messiah, in fact.
Update: If exit polls are notoriously unreliable, entrance polls must be that much more so. Or so we can hope.
Update: With slightly more than 10% of the Democratic precincts reporting, here’s how it looks:
Senator John Edwards : 34.24%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.12%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.28%
Update (Bryan): I have to say that so far Politico’s front-page numbers are totally useless. They still have Romney at 0% with 7% precincts reporting, for starters.
Update: NBC’s early results are in line with the entrance polls — Huck’s up.
Update: Turnout is massive; ABC says Obama’s people are starting to wonder about a romp. Rudy, meanwhile, appears to be headed for sixth place.
Update: “Registration at one precinct at the museum was approaching 40 percent before the cut-off. That would be four times the amount the Democratic precinct chairman was expecting.”
Update (bp): I drew the short straw so I’m watching MSNBC. Chris Matthews just made a half interesting point. After all the expectations, Hillary could still win by a point and still “lose” as long as Edwards and Obama tie for second.
Update: Only 15% reporting, but Fox has seen enough — they’re calling it for Huck.
Update: With a little more than 33% of precincts in:
Senator Barack Obama : 33.30%
Senator John Edwards : 32.12%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.80%
Update: Half the precincts are in but she’s still just two points off the pace.
Update: The Times says Polk County is neck and neck despite having been expected to break hard for Hillary.
Update: The Clinton legacy hangs by a thread — NBC says it’s Obama’s night.
Update: Don’t look now but with about 85% in, the Glacier is seven points back and fading.
Update: With 78% reporting, Fred’s just a shade behind McCain, both with 13%. Hmmm.
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If Fred Thompson had the media support that Huckabee had, he would be pulling 95% right now.
I’m not quite sure how this works , can McCains people give their votes over to Thompson?
TheSitRep on January 3, 2008 at 9:12 PM
My guess is he would throw support to Rudy
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:12 PM
McCain polls well in NH I dont see him dropping out.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 9:13 PM
How funny that the % between the big Democrats are about the same; no real leader present.
Weebork on January 3, 2008 at 9:13 PM
Fred! shines as the true conservative, Huck/Mitt/Rudy/McCain really can not compete. Thompson’s numbers will get better at the RINOs’ expense. There is a new Elephant in the room.
Fred!
infidel on January 3, 2008 at 9:13 PM
Fox News just did a piece on the blogs. The only bogs mentioned were Real Clear and a couple of Iowa political blogs. Sorry guys no mention of any other blogs. I guess the blogosphere is limited to Iowa too.
LakeRuins on January 3, 2008 at 9:13 PM
I didnt even know Hunter was running, or who he even is. Somebody should go ask those 3 people who are voting for him.
Nihaody on January 3, 2008 at 9:13 PM
Just trying to make your night :D
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:14 PM
Huckabee dropping? Only 31 % now?
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 9:14 PM
that won’t happen MB4.. hold fast.
amend2 on January 3, 2008 at 9:14 PM
Senator Barack Obama : 34.52%
Senator John Edwards : 31.61%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.13%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.69%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.98%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.04%
Uncommitted : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1000 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:14 PM
Kucinich.
yo on January 3, 2008 at 9:14 PM
Thompson in third with 13%
McCain 4th with 12%
C’mon Fred hang in there
LakeRuins on January 3, 2008 at 9:14 PM
No the problem was they couldnt find ONE blog on the whole Al Gore internets that actually SUPPORTS HUCK.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 9:14 PM
Obama is pulling away.
Spirit of 1776 on January 3, 2008 at 9:14 PM
Huck 31%
Mitt 23%
Fred 13%
McCain 12%
41% reporting
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 9:14 PM
Considering the numbers on the dem side, should we expect some withdrawals from the race tomorrow? Looks like a slugfest between Obama, Edwards and Clinton – anyone else who tries to stay in…shouldn’t.
Timothy S. Carlson on January 3, 2008 at 9:15 PM
That is true. Obama would be a greater threat to the GOP than Hil or Edwards
JVelez on January 3, 2008 at 9:15 PM
Live precinct count on CSPAN-2 for Republicans
SouthernGent on January 3, 2008 at 9:15 PM
The Dems are really having a horse race
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:15 PM
too many learned the Carter-Way.
amend2 on January 3, 2008 at 9:15 PM
Fox updates:
Pubbie (41% reporting)
Huckabee 31% (projected winner)
Romney 23%
Thompson 13%
McCain 12%
Rat (58% reporting)
Obama 35%
Edwards 32%
Clinton 31%
Richardson 2%
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 9:16 PM
Wouldn’t you just love to be the fly on the wall wherever Hillary is when she comes in 3rd (or even 2nd) tonight? I’m still thinking that some folks need to home a volunteer start their cars tonight over there.
Here’s to hoping that Fred comes in a strong 3rd, I’d love to see at least one actual conservative still in the running. Sad sad sad that Hunter is dead last. Real conservative, good man, damn shame.
Wondering exactly where the Paul crew is, or didn’t they figure out how to spike a caucus like they do polls?
McCain needs to drop out but he won’t as long as he’s getting endorsed for Republican nominee by all the Democrat newspapers.
Buzzy on January 3, 2008 at 9:16 PM
My night is going pretty damn bad right now. Virginia Tech is losing, looking terrible, and some preacher just won Iowa. TERRIBLE>
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 9:16 PM
Great a show pony, a dark horse candidate and a nag
But which is which ?
William Amos on January 3, 2008 at 9:16 PM
I wonder why it’s tightening.
Vizzini on January 3, 2008 at 9:17 PM
Is Hillary spinning Iowa as full of sexists yet?
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 9:17 PM
I agree.
davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 9:17 PM
From MSNBC:
41% precincts reporting
Rudy 11%
Huck 31.0%
Hunter 0%
McCain 12%
Paul 10%
Romney 23%
Fred 13%
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:18 PM
Dont feel bad I live in Missouri and I want VT to win and “Iowans” just voted en masse for Rev. Moon.
“Heres your koolaid”
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 9:18 PM
Edwards campaign looks to be minutes away from ending. Behind Obama by 3% with about 60% of the vote in? 2nd place for Edwards would mean a 2 person Dem race, and help Obama a lot.
Also, an Obama win in Iowa probably hurts McCain in NH.
Bad night so far for Mitt and Hillary.
dedalus on January 3, 2008 at 9:18 PM
If Shhhillary comes in third, Iowa better hope she loses the Presidency. You know how those Clintons hold a grudge…
Timothy S. Carlson on January 3, 2008 at 9:19 PM
Damn, all you people are commenting too much. I cant keep up. I post something, and push refresh, and I have already been lost 15 messages.
Nihaody on January 3, 2008 at 9:19 PM
Go screw yourself Rollins, you RINO freak.
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 9:20 PM
From AP via Politico:
41% precincts reporting
Rudy 10.96%
Huck 31.4%
Hunter .38%
McCain 11.61%
Paul 9.79%
Romney 22.55%
Fred 13.3%
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:20 PM
So Huck’s winning by 8% with only 41% of the vote in and everyone has already declared him the winner? It may be true, but I think these news organizations should at least wait until 60% of the vote is in to declare a winner if they want to be seen as informative and reliable.
Nonfactor on January 3, 2008 at 9:20 PM
Better than not being in the top 3.
davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 9:20 PM
NOt sure how accurate the count is in causcuses compared to elections but I recalll going to bed one night about 8 years feeling very unsure about who actually won.
amend2 on January 3, 2008 at 9:20 PM
Calm down. It is one small state amongst 50 states.
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:20 PM
Bnelson, where are you getting the deeper percentages from Politico?
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 9:21 PM
Yea, well thats what happens when the drugs wear off and reality takes hold.
doriangrey on January 3, 2008 at 9:21 PM
As long as Hillary doesn’t win I will be okay, I can’t stand her and that stupid condescending laugh.
dawgsleadtheway on January 3, 2008 at 9:21 PM
Yes. I like detail
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:22 PM
FU#@ IOWA. Why do these hayseed hicks, who are clearly out of step with the rest of the country, have this kind of impact on the nomination process? I would be more than happy with either Romney, Giuliani, or Thompson but Huckabee will destroy the Republican party and this is a very bad start to this primary indeed. I hope Thompson and (gasp) Paul beat McCain to hurt him heading into NH.
Patriot33 on January 3, 2008 at 9:22 PM
Answer the questions Ed!
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 9:22 PM
I demand a recount! Where is Al Gore when you need him!
Nihaody on January 3, 2008 at 9:22 PM
This is Ed “Reagan Conservatism is over” Rollins
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 9:23 PM
The numbers aren’t going to move much now. I just hope that Fred holds onto 3rd place. The % won’t have changed much from third to fourth but psychologically it’s much better to be third than “out of the running.” Even in a mostly symbolic night of voting.
Mojave Mark on January 3, 2008 at 9:23 PM
Either a correction in tallies, or a loss of support for Huck with a % relationship that is the same.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 9:23 PM
Looks like McCain took a pretty big swipe at Romney in New Hampshire.
Nonfactor on January 3, 2008 at 9:23 PM
You’re missing Rush’s (and mine) second part of this.
If Hillary loses the nomination – and she will – watch for either a Bloomberg, or even Hillary herself, to run as an Independent.
And, as such either one (my prediction) will pull away votes primarily from the Libs.
Further, my prediction is NO MATTER WHICH Repub gets the nomination, there will be an Independent/off party running on a strong immigration enforcement and pulling away primarily from the Conservative/immigration hawk base.
Further, if the Repub nominee is not Huck, then the president elect will still be Republican.
If the Republican nominee is Huck – hardly – but if it is, then, the conservative/immigration hawk will be the president elect.
Mark my words.
Mcguyver on January 3, 2008 at 9:23 PM
Thompson needs 15-20% to make this a successful night. Beating McCain 13% to 12% won’t cut it.
Dudley Smith on January 3, 2008 at 9:24 PM
Have to change the channel–can’t bear listen to that scumbag.
Patriot33 on January 3, 2008 at 9:24 PM
EVERYONE, HOLD YOUR HOSES NOW:
Take a deep breath and remember: Pat Robertson won Iowa too
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:24 PM
hoses = horses
been typing too fast
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:25 PM
I was looking for the link you’re using to get those numbers.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 9:25 PM
Yeah Rollins, Huckster is gonna walk into a brick wall once he tries to leave Iowa.
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 9:25 PM
Sure it will. Fred is doing fine.
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:25 PM
Ed Rollins may be the worst thing to happen to that campaign.
Vizzini on January 3, 2008 at 9:25 PM
Fixed
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 9:26 PM
Exactly! I think all real conservatives should band together as much as possible to keep Huckabee and McCain from getting the nomination.
davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 9:26 PM
http://www.politico.com/iowacaucuses/iowamap-popup.html
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:26 PM
Graci.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 9:27 PM
Rudy’s at 11%?
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 9:27 PM
Whoa! Ed Rollins on Fox just now. What an ass.
Cuffy Meigs on January 3, 2008 at 9:28 PM
FU#@ IOWA. Why do these hayseed hicks, who are clearly out of step with the rest of the country, have this kind of impact on the nomination process? I would be more than happy with either Romney, Giuliani, or Thompson but
I’m with ya. No RINOs ever. Never ever.
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 9:28 PM
called for obama
sunny on January 3, 2008 at 9:28 PM
CNN calls Iowa for Obama.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 9:28 PM
At least Rudy is making a showing now – and pushing Paul out of 5th.
FoxNews just declared Obama the winner.
Timothy S. Carlson on January 3, 2008 at 9:28 PM
1980
George Bush 33,530 31.6%
Ronald Reagan 31,348 29.5%
Howard Baker 16,216 15.3%
John Connally 9,861 9.3%
Phil Crane 7,135 6.7%
John Anderson 4,585 4.3%
No Preference 1,800 1.7%
Robert Dole 1,576 1.5%
amend2 on January 3, 2008 at 9:29 PM
Holding the hose might not necessarily be a bad thing?
CrimsonFisted on January 3, 2008 at 9:29 PM
I think something is still wonky with the map… there are a number of counties showing 100% precints reporting with no voters for either side… I suppose it’s entirely possible no one lives there, or cares, but…
Canadian Imperialist Running Dog on January 3, 2008 at 9:29 PM
yea
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:29 PM
Obama wins Iowa.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 9:29 PM
Why are republican numbers so slow coming in?
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 9:30 PM
Does anyone expect the dinosaur media to declare Rush’s influence dead? I can see where they would say that. He’s been really hard on Huckster…deservedly so…but Hucksters wins anyways. They would love to proclaim this!
SouthernGent on January 3, 2008 at 9:31 PM
Dunno, not relying on the map. I compare the percentages with the reports coming in from Fox and MSNBC and it is accurate.
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:31 PM
Huckabee will destroy the Republican party and this is a very bad start to this primary indeed. I hope Thompson and (gasp) Paul beat McCain to hurt him heading into NH.
Exactly! I think all real conservatives should band together as much as possible to keep Huckabee and McCain from getting the nomination.
davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 9:26 PM
who cares about the Republican Party…
Its Conservatism we are here for and we’ll find our person. Its easy to be a Liberal but extremely difficult to be a conservative nominee… it will turn out well .. trust me.
amend2 on January 3, 2008 at 9:31 PM
Senator Barack Obama : 35.96%
Senator John Edwards : 30.60%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.41%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.92%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.98%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1382 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:32 PM
I don’t put much stock in anybody “calling” a vote until it’s counted. Especially a caucus. They may get it right most of the time, but I prefer to wait it out.
I’m not saying they’re wrong, I just don’t trust them.
Tennman on January 3, 2008 at 9:32 PM
Dems did a show of hands.
Reps wrote down names and need to counted.
Perhaps this is the reason?
CrimsonFisted on January 3, 2008 at 9:32 PM
I noticed the same thing at CNN. They stopped reporting (R) information once they declared Huck the winner. They are all over the (D) info. But they just declared Obama the winner, so well see.
DCA on January 3, 2008 at 9:33 PM
Maybe the stupid a$$ evangelicals in Iowa can’t move the radio off of christian broadcasting to listen to Rush.
He’s a drug user you know.
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 9:33 PM
Democrats caucus’ work differently than republicans,thats why numbers come in different.
As to history and the Hawkeye Cauceye, this year was a 50% increase in evangelicals in the party. This does NOT represent the party. Thats why I am done being concerned about this.
Heck, Huckadouche might as well have held this in his hometown.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 9:33 PM
How about a what if:
What if somehow Giuliani somehow manages to pass McCain for 4th?
Canadian Imperialist Running Dog on January 3, 2008 at 9:33 PM
Before it slides out of the headlines, please check out this story. You’ll be glad you did.
RushBaby on January 3, 2008 at 9:34 PM
That and the caucus only had a certain number of votes per caucus on the Dem side. So it was a partial winner take all on their side.
Republicans had to count each individual vote.
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:34 PM
Huck 34%
Mitt 25%
Fred 14%
McCain 13%
65% reporting
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 9:35 PM
Fred back up to 14% but McVain is up a point too to 13%
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 9:35 PM
Thanks
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:35 PM
Ugh. Ed “Freakin Idiot” Rollins is on CNN now.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 9:36 PM
Duncan Hunter is toast. Expect a withdrawal tomorrow.
The numbers for 3rd-6th are so close, everyone else hangs on until New Hampsire.
I’d imagine Shhhillary is cussing out the Biden supporters tonight. That .98% would have put her over Edwards.
Timothy S. Carlson on January 3, 2008 at 9:37 PM
Rollins: The Old Coalition is gone. This is the new coalition.
Oy.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 9:37 PM
If hilldawg drops under 30% my night will be complete…oh and fred stays in 3rd.
sunny on January 3, 2008 at 9:37 PM
Okay, I’ll put it this way: A Huckabee nomination would fracture the conservative coalition that makes up the Republican party and therefore kill our election chances in the future and thereby bring about liberal rule across the board; and a President Huckabee (would never happen, but anyway) would do more harm to conservatism than any liberal possibly could.
Patriot33 on January 3, 2008 at 9:37 PM
From MSNBC:
65% precincts reporting
Rudy 4%
Huck 34.0%
Hunter 0%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Romney 25%
Fred 14%
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:38 PM
Wow, that great, thanks
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 9:38 PM
That is a great story RushBaby.
Godspeed Dr. Krissoff *salutes*
F15Mech on January 3, 2008 at 9:38 PM
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