Hot Air Mobile
Home The Vault Gear About
Hot Air -- get your fill


Open thread: Raucous caucus!

posted at 7:17 pm on January 3, 2008 by Allahpundit
Share on Facebook | printer-friendly

Iowans are en route to their precinct meetings as we speak. Things get going in earnest at 7:30 p.m. ET, as the Democratic assemblies are called to order, and then the hard business begins at eight. The GOP should be done within the hour, although tabulation may take awhile; the Democrats could be at it for hours beyond that given the vagaries of their “viability” system. Let the Des Moines Register explain it all to you in handy dandy graphic form.

Precinct results will be posted at the Republican and Democratic state party websites but you’re probably better off with Drudge or the Register if you can’t wait for me to update. Naturally the cable news nets are going wall to wall; if you prefer your coverage unadulterated, C-SPAN and C-SPAN2 are all over it. I’ll probably stick with this thread for awhile and then break off into separate posts as big news happens. Check back for updates, and of course feel free to share info in the comments.

As one prominent Republican put it, it’s in “the hands of the good Lord and the people of Iowa now.” No, it wasn’t Huck.

Update (Bryan): I’ve been looking for an appropriate place to post this and inflict our readership with what can only be described as the Hillacackle Funk. Blame me for posting it here, and blame SeeDubya for producing it in the first place.

Update: Mary Katharine likes Obama and, per her Townhall pedigree, Romney to win. Plus, a surprising third for Fred!

Update: “I say this with all compassion, and I say this with love and respect for all of you who support Huckabee. But how dare you compare Mike Huckabee to Ronald Reagan. That is simply intellectually vapid, and it’s grasping at straws.”

Update: On MSNBC, Pat Buchanan asks whether Obama would be a serious contender if he wasn’t black.

Update: Hope for Fredheads?

Update: With just five of 1781 precincts reporting, Silky leads. There are reports in the comments of huge turnout among Democrats, at least, which probably bodes well for Obama.

Update: The state Democratic website is loading like a dream, replete with auto-refresh. The GOP site won’t load at all. Wonderful.

Politico’s posting the results via auto-refresh on its own homepage. One percent of the precincts are reporting.

Update: Lots of reports of heavy turnout, pointing towards big nights for Huck and the Messiah. Maybe a very big night for the Messiah, in fact.

Update: If exit polls are notoriously unreliable, entrance polls must be that much more so. Or so we can hope.

Update: With slightly more than 10% of the Democratic precincts reporting, here’s how it looks:

Senator John Edwards : 34.24%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.12%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.28%

Update (Bryan): I have to say that so far Politico’s front-page numbers are totally useless. They still have Romney at 0% with 7% precincts reporting, for starters.

Update: NBC’s early results are in line with the entrance polls — Huck’s up.

Update: Turnout is massive; ABC says Obama’s people are starting to wonder about a romp. Rudy, meanwhile, appears to be headed for sixth place.

Update: “Registration at one precinct at the museum was approaching 40 percent before the cut-off. That would be four times the amount the Democratic precinct chairman was expecting.”

Update (bp): I drew the short straw so I’m watching MSNBC. Chris Matthews just made a half interesting point. After all the expectations, Hillary could still win by a point and still “lose” as long as Edwards and Obama tie for second.

Update: Only 15% reporting, but Fox has seen enough — they’re calling it for Huck.

Update: With a little more than 33% of precincts in:

Senator Barack Obama : 33.30%
Senator John Edwards : 32.12%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.80%

Update: Half the precincts are in but she’s still just two points off the pace.

Update: The Times says Polk County is neck and neck despite having been expected to break hard for Hillary.

Update: The Clinton legacy hangs by a thread — NBC says it’s Obama’s night.

Update: Don’t look now but with about 85% in, the Glacier is seven points back and fading.

Update: With 78% reporting, Fred’s just a shade behind McCain, both with 13%. Hmmm.


Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4 5 ... 9

ThackerAgency on January 3, 2008 at 8:50 PM

When you comment make sure you understand what I said.

broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 8:51 PM

Bryan, re: Patterico: I’ve only gotten the opportunity once, but I lied to a pollster. How I have voted, or will vote, is no one’s damned business but mine. I cannot be the only one with this attitude.

sondiehl on January 3, 2008 at 8:52 PM

Huck 36%
Romney 23%
Fred 14%
McCain 12%

From Fox, 15% reporting

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 8:52 PM

Senator John Edwards : 32.62%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.30%
Senator Barack Obama : 32.30%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.89%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.75%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.11%
Uncommitted : 0.04%
Precincts Reporting: 461 of 1781

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 8:52 PM

wow….real early but Paul has 11%….scary

JVelez on January 3, 2008 at 8:52 PM

7:49 Update: 23% reporting 33 Edwards 32 Clinton 32 Obama…. 15% reporting 36% Huckabee 23% Romney, 15% Thompson, 12% McCain

Dhornertx on January 3, 2008 at 8:52 PM

Wow, McCain just won a Des Moines precinct, with Romney 2nd and Huckabee 4th.

Vizzini on January 3, 2008 at 8:52 PM

If Huck wins, I am going to vomit.

muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 8:47 PM

Get ready to hurl (and I’ll be joining you)

- 15% in -
Huck 36%
Romney 23%
Thompson 14%
McCain 12%

steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 8:53 PM

csdeven, looks like you were right on huck/romney

Spirit of 1776 on January 3, 2008 at 8:53 PM

FoxNews is doing a great job in covering.

KBird on January 3, 2008 at 8:53 PM

Hmm. Obama just passed Clinton. It’s all within a percentage point on that side.

Vanceone on January 3, 2008 at 8:53 PM

Oops! I meant Politico, of course.

sondiehl on January 3, 2008 at 8:53 PM

He’s fo real.

Zach on January 3, 2008 at 8:42 PM

He fo real

I knows thats right

TheSitRep on January 3, 2008 at 8:54 PM

Fox News is declaring Huckabee the winner!

Dhornertx on January 3, 2008 at 8:54 PM

wow….real early but Paul has 11%….scary

JVelez on January 3, 2008 at 8:52 PM

I wouldn’t doubt him pulling double digits.

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 8:54 PM

Huck wins per fox

sunny on January 3, 2008 at 8:54 PM

Oh please… there aren’t that many Evangelicals in Iowa. Me thinks the Dems have registered as Repubs. I’m telling you, it’s very very fishy !

stenwin77 on January 3, 2008 at 8:55 PM

And Fox calls it for Huck.

<hurl_projectile>

steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 8:55 PM

Fox now predicts Huckabee wins.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 8:55 PM

Fox projects Huck will win the caucus.

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 8:55 PM

Well that proves it, Iowa is full of idiots

conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 8:55 PM

Update: The state Democratic website is loading like a dream, replete with auto-refresh. The GOP site won’t load at all. Wonderful.

I’m thinking this is a good thing, it hopefully means Republicans are tuned in and turning out.

Speakup on January 3, 2008 at 8:55 PM

If huckabee ends up getting the nomination, I will officially be leaving the republican party and become an independent. Fox just said they project him to win, and I feel sick.

muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 8:55 PM

On MSNBC, Pat Buchanan asks whether Obama would be a serious contender if he wasn’t black.

Would Hillary if she wasn’t a woman or married to Bill Clinton?

eclark1849 on January 3, 2008 at 8:55 PM

Huck is so wrong in so many ways.

Iowans, you suck.

Zach on January 3, 2008 at 8:56 PM

relax its just the first … look at the Iowa history.

amend2 on January 3, 2008 at 8:56 PM

Oh please… there aren’t that many Evangelicals in Iowa. Me thinks the Dems have registered as Repubs. I’m telling you, it’s very very fishy !

Pat Robertson won there.

Spirit of 1776 on January 3, 2008 at 8:56 PM

Spirit of 1776 on January 3, 2008 at 8:53 PM

We’ll see.

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 8:56 PM

And now Obama’s passed Edwards. Probably for good, too.

It’s down to the cities now, I bet.

Vanceone on January 3, 2008 at 8:56 PM

MSNBC reporting the same:

- 15% in -
Huck 36%
Romney 23%
Thompson 14%
McCain 12%
Paul 11%
Rudy 3%

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 8:56 PM

If huckabee ends up getting the nomination, I will officially be leaving the republican party and become an independent. Fox just said they project him to win, and I feel sick.

muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 8:55 PM

It is still just Iowa. We have a long way to go. Don’t give up yet! Fred hung in there just GREAT and NOTHING for Ron Paul. That is good.

CrimsonFisted on January 3, 2008 at 8:57 PM

Mitt??????? Where’s your 7 million?????

sunny on January 3, 2008 at 8:57 PM

Fox calls it. What a disgrace. Why the hurry?

roninacreage on January 3, 2008 at 8:57 PM

CNN: HUCKABEE WINS IOWA CAUCUS!

zane on January 3, 2008 at 8:57 PM

Why are news organizations so eager to declare the winners? Just let the results come in, nobody cares that the people in the newsroom can project that someone will win.

Nonfactor on January 3, 2008 at 8:58 PM

Oh please… there aren’t that many Evangelicals in Iowa. Me thinks the Dems have registered as Repubs. I’m telling you, it’s very very fishy !

stenwin77 on January 3, 2008 at 8:55 PM

The Dems have their own problems they can’t spare voters crossing over.

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 8:58 PM

Wow that was fast.

terryannonline on January 3, 2008 at 8:58 PM

Good job Fox…report the news before it happens.

Zach on January 3, 2008 at 8:58 PM

@ CrimsonFisted on January 3, 2008 at 8:57 PM

I am voting for Ron Paul, so not good. And I said the nomination, as in the republican nomination for president.

muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 8:58 PM

Republican senators gut border fence. Hutchinson and Cornyn led charge to defund.

http://www.thebulletin.us/site/news.cfm?newsid=19161424&BRD=2737&PAG=461&dept_id=618959&rfi=6

roninacreage on January 3, 2008 at 8:59 PM

I also like how McCain’s purported surge allowed him to be in the position to possibly edge out Paul by 1%

Nonfactor on January 3, 2008 at 8:59 PM

Its identity politics pure and simple. Evangelicals couldnt care less what Huckabees positions are. He is Gods candidate and that is that.

broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 8:59 PM

disaster for romney, complete disaster. disaster for the GOP? is the party now well and truly split?

zane on January 3, 2008 at 8:59 PM

From AP via Politico:

15% precincts reporting
Rudy 3.27%
Huck 35.71%
Hunter .44%
McCain 11.73%
Paul 11%
Romney 23.37%
Fred 14.48%

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 8:59 PM

Nonfactor on January 3, 2008 at 8:58 PM

Interesting question. Don’t know.

Spirit of 1776 on January 3, 2008 at 9:00 PM

Huck can take 75% of the vote in Iowa and it won’t matter. He’ll get shredded after this.

flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 9:00 PM

CNN calls it, too.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 9:00 PM

I think I just heard ABC say Huckster and Obama.

If that is true, the dims are choosing probably their strongest candidate for the general and Republicans are choosing their weakest.

Oh great.

MB4 on January 3, 2008 at 9:01 PM

People remember this is only one state, people are actin like its the general. Im happy so far that Fred is 3rd

JVelez on January 3, 2008 at 9:01 PM

Now Romney is spinning wonderfully, “two weeks ago Mike Huckabee had a 22 point lead and at least I cut into that lead.”

Dhornertx on January 3, 2008 at 9:01 PM

YIPPE KAYEAH!
Hillary just dropped below 32% and Obama over 33%.

Mcguyver on January 3, 2008 at 9:01 PM

I also like how McCain’s purported surge allowed him to be in the position to possibly edge out Paul by 1%

Romney’s loss is McCain’s gain tonight. If McCain edges Thompson he’ll have gotten everything he wanted out of Iowa.

Also, Rudy has to be happy with the results so far.

dedalus on January 3, 2008 at 9:01 PM

Party’s been split since El Jefe Jorge and McCain pushed amnesty.

steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 9:02 PM

Chuck Norris FACT: Chuck supports the winner.

Nihaody on January 3, 2008 at 9:02 PM

Good lord. We get exactly the government we deserve, and I guess we deserve a President Obama or Clinton. It’s gonna suck. The nation’s gonna pay a helluva price, but hey, the “evangelicals” got to flex their piss-ant little muscles, so it’s all good. Hickabee may have won this battle, but if he’s the nominee, he’ll not only lose the war, it’s gonna be a 49 or 50 state slaughter. Ladies and Gentleman, meet the GOP’s Walter Mondale.

Rational Thought on January 3, 2008 at 9:02 PM

This is no disaster for Romney or Thompson, Mike Huckabee probably won’t do well in New Hampshire.
Like Romney just said on Fox news Channel. This is a 50 inning game, and this is just the first inning.
This is looking very good for Thompson, though.

TheSitRep on January 3, 2008 at 9:02 PM

muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 8:58 PM

Didn’t mean to offend! It is still too early and the pundits are calling way too early. TOO early.

CrimsonFisted on January 3, 2008 at 9:02 PM

A belief in socialism is not intelligent.

JiangxiDad on January 3, 2008 at 7:36 PM

You’re an intelligent man JiangxiDad.

Romney supporter 36.0 teeth.
Huckabee supporter 6.2 teeth.

MB4 on January 3, 2008 at 8:25 PM

Mark Twain “FC, it’s nice and cozy here. I await your company”.

Entelechy on January 3, 2008 at 9:03 PM

Time to ask, if McShamnesty is a not so hot fourth, will he drop out?

Speakup on January 3, 2008 at 9:03 PM

NBC: HUCKABEE WINS IOWA

zane on January 3, 2008 at 9:03 PM

Senator Barack Obama : 33.30%
Senator John Edwards : 32.12%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.80%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.72%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.95%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.06%
Uncommitted : 0.04%
Precincts Reporting: 717 of 1781

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:03 PM

Blame Iowa. Blame Iowa.

Dudley Smith on January 3, 2008 at 9:03 PM

Chuck Norris FACT: Chuck supports the winner.

Nihaody on January 3, 2008 at 9:02 PM

In Iowa. He now moves on the NH, where he doesn’t lead.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 9:04 PM

From CNN:
15% reporting
Huckabee 36%
Romney 23%
Thompson 15%
McCain 12%
Paul 11%
Giuliani 3%
Hunter 0%

What is notable is that the Dem side of the same website has 34% of the precincts reporting.

DCA on January 3, 2008 at 9:05 PM

dedalus on January 3, 2008 at 9:01 PM

I think Romney’s loss is just another boost to Huckabee; sure McCain will benefit, but do you really think moreso than Huck will?

Nonfactor on January 3, 2008 at 9:05 PM

Exactly Speak up.

Where is msm’s call for McCain and Rudy to drop out? Fred is looking good at 3rd, with little or no national media to speak of.

roninacreage on January 3, 2008 at 9:05 PM

Time to ask, if McShamnesty is a not so hot fourth, will he drop out?

Speakup on January 3, 2008 at 9:03 PM

Depends on whether 12% with 14% being 3rd and 23% 2nd is considered “not-hot”.

steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 9:06 PM

Time to ask, if McShamnesty is a not so hot fourth, will he drop out?

Speakup on January 3, 2008 at 9:03 PM

No, Fred had to get 3rd, but McCain didn’t. He just had to show and Mitt had to not get 1st. That happened, so now McCain has a chance in NH.

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:06 PM

Mitt concedes Iowa to Huck.

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 9:06 PM

who cares what Iowa thinks? Huckabee is not my man. Not even my second choice.

ctmom on January 3, 2008 at 9:06 PM

This is a 50 inning game, and this is just the first inning.

well put siterep

In many cases winning or loosing the first round of ANY type of contest completely upsets the entire race.

we’ll just see…

amend2 on January 3, 2008 at 9:06 PM

I step away from the computer for 5 minutes and
presto it’s Huckabee,Wonderful.

canopfor on January 3, 2008 at 9:07 PM

My source at one precinct in Iowa says they ran out of ballots.

askheaves on January 3, 2008 at 9:07 PM

Where is msm’s call for McCain and Rudy to drop out? Fred is looking good at 3rd, with little or no national media to speak of.

roninacreage on January 3, 2008 at 9:05 PM

McCain co-leads in New Hampshire, and Rudy didn’t try to win Iowa.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 9:07 PM

“Iowa ? there is only two things that come out of Iowa Steers and Mike Huckabee !”

William Amos on January 3, 2008 at 9:07 PM

Where is msm’s call for McCain and Rudy to drop out? Fred is looking good at 3rd, with little or no national media to speak of.

roninacreage on January 3, 2008 at 9:05 PM

The NH race is Mitt vs McCain vs Rudy. With Rudy down so much, it really is turning out to be a Mitt vs McCain race. There is no reason for McCain to drop out now.

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:07 PM

Its identity politics pure and simple. Evangelicals couldnt care less what Huckabees positions are. He is Gods candidate and that is that.

broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 8:59 PM

Indeed, but don’t call them on it. You’ll be a meanie if you do!

SouthernGent on January 3, 2008 at 9:07 PM

Extending the answer to Speakup; that not being considered a “not so hot 4th” by McCain with a quick dropout is about the only thing that’s going to save Romney.

steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 9:08 PM

Looking forward, I think that the key primary is not Iowa, but its shaping up to be Michigan. If Mitt is second to McCain in NH, it will be oficially on…. that being said, go Fred

JVelez on January 3, 2008 at 9:08 PM

Obama’s opening up a lead.

Zach on January 3, 2008 at 9:08 PM

I hope there is a split in the GOP! We need to drop these “conservatives” that are only conservative on social issues nuts. It would be bad for a few years, but well worth it in the end.

davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 9:08 PM

who cares what Iowa thinks? Huckabee is not my man. Not even my second choice.

ctmom on January 3, 2008 at 9:06 PM

Not even my third.

sunny on January 3, 2008 at 9:08 PM

From AP via Politico:

25% precincts reporting
Rudy 3.27%
Huck 35.0%
Hunter .32%
McCain 11.82%
Paul 18.87%
Romney 24%
Fred 14.25%

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:09 PM

Chuck Norris FACT: Chuck supports the winner.

Nihaody on January 3, 2008 at 9:02 PM
In Iowa. He now moves on the NH, where he doesn’t lead.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 9:04 PM

Yeah, we all know, everybody keeps saying that. But you notice, I am not talking about NH. This isnt NH. This is Iowa, and it is happening NOW. I am talking about NOW.

For example, during a football game, if people are cheering for the winning team. Do you tell them, “this is only one game so you shouldnt cheer.” ?

Nihaody on January 3, 2008 at 9:09 PM

Correction:

From AP via Politico:

25% precincts reporting
Rudy 3.27%
Huck 35.0%
Hunter .32%
McCain 11.82%
Paul 10.87%
Romney 24%
Fred 14.25%

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:09 PM

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:10 PM

I think Romney’s loss is just another boost to Huckabee; sure McCain will benefit, but do you really think moreso than Huck will?

I think Huck has a ceiling nationally. I don’t think he’ll play as well outside of Iowa. But you are right tonight is huge for him.

dedalus on January 3, 2008 at 9:10 PM

Paul 18.87%

Yikes !

William Amos on January 3, 2008 at 9:10 PM

Senator Barack Obama : 34.06%
Senator John Edwards : 31.71%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.45%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.76%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.05%
Uncommitted : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 923 of 1781

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:10 PM

Well,it’s going to be a fun and entertaining in the next
9 or 10 months.

canopfor on January 3, 2008 at 9:11 PM

Yikes !

William Amos on January 3, 2008 at 9:10 PM

Sorry I fat fingered that.

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:11 PM

No, Fred had to get 3rd, but McCain didn’t. He just had to show and Mitt had to not get 1st. That happened, so now McCain has a chance in NH.

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:06 PM

If/when McCain drops out does he throw support his support to Huck though?

Speakup on January 3, 2008 at 9:11 PM

Richardson, Biden, and Dodd just give it up. Fools.

Zach on January 3, 2008 at 9:11 PM

Not even my third.

Not even my fifth.

davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 9:11 PM

@ bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 9:10 PM

you got me all excited there.

muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 9:11 PM

Fred still slipping 13% now

conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 9:12 PM

Its identity politics pure and simple. Evangelicals couldnt care less what Huckabees positions are. He is Gods candidate and that is that.

broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 8:59 PM

If they succeed in establishing religion as a basic Republican Party tenet, they could do us in. [Mike Huckabee] and others who are trying to take the Republican Party and make a religious organization out of it. If that ever happens, kiss politics goodbye.
- Barry Goldwater

MB4 on January 3, 2008 at 9:12 PM

YIPPE KAYEAH!
Hillary just dropped below 32% and Obama over 33%.

Mcguyver on January 3, 2008 at 9:01 PM

Hey, I will stick with Maha Rushie’s opinion that Hillary needs to be the candidate. No matter how big of a political machine she has working for her, she is just hated by too many ppl. She is a mother winter, the freeze, and has a habit of being not ready for the tough questions. She would be eaten alive by either Romney, Fred!, Rudy, or McCain in a one or one debate (even if it was hosted on PMSNBC and moderated by Uberdouche)

lsutiger on January 3, 2008 at 9:12 PM

that would have pretty interesting to say the least

Paul 18.87%

amend2 on January 3, 2008 at 9:12 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4 5 ... 9


You must be logged in to post a comment.