Open thread: Raucous caucus!
posted at 7:17 pm on January 3, 2008 by Allahpundit
Iowans are en route to their precinct meetings as we speak. Things get going in earnest at 7:30 p.m. ET, as the Democratic assemblies are called to order, and then the hard business begins at eight. The GOP should be done within the hour, although tabulation may take awhile; the Democrats could be at it for hours beyond that given the vagaries of their “viability” system. Let the Des Moines Register explain it all to you in handy dandy graphic form.
Precinct results will be posted at the Republican and Democratic state party websites but you’re probably better off with Drudge or the Register if you can’t wait for me to update. Naturally the cable news nets are going wall to wall; if you prefer your coverage unadulterated, C-SPAN and C-SPAN2 are all over it. I’ll probably stick with this thread for awhile and then break off into separate posts as big news happens. Check back for updates, and of course feel free to share info in the comments.
As one prominent Republican put it, it’s in “the hands of the good Lord and the people of Iowa now.” No, it wasn’t Huck.
Update (Bryan): I’ve been looking for an appropriate place to post this and inflict our readership with what can only be described as the Hillacackle Funk. Blame me for posting it here, and blame SeeDubya for producing it in the first place.
Update: Mary Katharine likes Obama and, per her Townhall pedigree, Romney to win. Plus, a surprising third for Fred!
Update: “I say this with all compassion, and I say this with love and respect for all of you who support Huckabee. But how dare you compare Mike Huckabee to Ronald Reagan. That is simply intellectually vapid, and it’s grasping at straws.”
Update: On MSNBC, Pat Buchanan asks whether Obama would be a serious contender if he wasn’t black.
Update: Hope for Fredheads?
Update: With just five of 1781 precincts reporting, Silky leads. There are reports in the comments of huge turnout among Democrats, at least, which probably bodes well for Obama.
Update: The state Democratic website is loading like a dream, replete with auto-refresh. The GOP site won’t load at all. Wonderful.
Politico’s posting the results via auto-refresh on its own homepage. One percent of the precincts are reporting.
Update: Lots of reports of heavy turnout, pointing towards big nights for Huck and the Messiah. Maybe a very big night for the Messiah, in fact.
Update: If exit polls are notoriously unreliable, entrance polls must be that much more so. Or so we can hope.
Update: With slightly more than 10% of the Democratic precincts reporting, here’s how it looks:
Senator John Edwards : 34.24%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.12%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.28%
Update (Bryan): I have to say that so far Politico’s front-page numbers are totally useless. They still have Romney at 0% with 7% precincts reporting, for starters.
Update: NBC’s early results are in line with the entrance polls — Huck’s up.
Update: Turnout is massive; ABC says Obama’s people are starting to wonder about a romp. Rudy, meanwhile, appears to be headed for sixth place.
Update: “Registration at one precinct at the museum was approaching 40 percent before the cut-off. That would be four times the amount the Democratic precinct chairman was expecting.”
Update (bp): I drew the short straw so I’m watching MSNBC. Chris Matthews just made a half interesting point. After all the expectations, Hillary could still win by a point and still “lose” as long as Edwards and Obama tie for second.
Update: Only 15% reporting, but Fox has seen enough — they’re calling it for Huck.
Update: With a little more than 33% of precincts in:
Senator Barack Obama : 33.30%
Senator John Edwards : 32.12%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.80%
Update: Half the precincts are in but she’s still just two points off the pace.
Update: The Times says Polk County is neck and neck despite having been expected to break hard for Hillary.
Update: The Clinton legacy hangs by a thread — NBC says it’s Obama’s night.
Update: Don’t look now but with about 85% in, the Glacier is seven points back and fading.
Update: With 78% reporting, Fred’s just a shade behind McCain, both with 13%. Hmmm.










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CNN says most rep voters are older female evangelicals and their #1 issue is IMMIGRATION.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 8:22 PM
Actually, no. My daughter would say I’m somewhere to the right of Gengis Khan.
Just finished up with my bloody steak. Wouldn’t want to ruin it with the wrong kind of whine. ;)
Tennman on January 3, 2008 at 8:22 PM
not to mention when you hit GOP on CSPAN you get DEM caucus.
amend2 on January 3, 2008 at 8:22 PM
Hmm. Now, there’s 33 Dem precints…. still heavy Edwards and Hillary. Obama’s far back. Edwards is almost 40 percent.
Vanceone on January 3, 2008 at 8:23 PM
Something for the undecided Iowa Democrat to consider.
JammieWearingFool on January 3, 2008 at 8:23 PM
Senator John Edwards : 38.03%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.93%
Senator Barack Obama : 26.54%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.45%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.04%
Precincts Reporting: 33 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 8:24 PM
but then again when was the last time so many PC users were watching the Iowa Caucus like an actual election.
amend2 on January 3, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Still watching this huge turnout at this Republican precicnt on CSPAN-2. Some old coot asked where the ballot box was. LOL. I really wonder if the Paulbots have turned out en masse?
SouthernGent on January 3, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Fred’s gonna score a TKO on someone. Just don’t know who the victim will be yet.
a capella on January 3, 2008 at 8:25 PM
CNN entrance poll shows mean number of teeth of candidates supporters:
Romney supporter 36.0 teeth.
Huckabee supporter 6.2 teeth.
MB4 on January 3, 2008 at 8:25 PM
@ a capella on January 3, 2008 at 8:25 PM
himself
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Republican Numbers coming in. McCain, Huckabee, Thompson.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Holy crap…might Silky just pull out a first place finish tonight? That’ll just be further evidence, if any were needed, of the irrelevance of the Iowa caucuses.
flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 8:26 PM
With 2% reporting, that is.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 8:27 PM
Fred’s doing REALLY well so far…although it’s early.
btw…How can you be up, out, and in line at the polls…and still be “undecided”? Cripes…by that point, you should know who you’ll vote for if you’re there and in line…
JetBoy on January 3, 2008 at 8:27 PM
Bwahahahaha!!! Now that’s funny right there boy and I don’t care who you are.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 8:27 PM
bnelson44 Thanks!
RushBaby on January 3, 2008 at 8:28 PM
Fer cryin’ out loud…where was the Iowa GOP web server built…Arkansas??
flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 8:28 PM
Does anyone know the breakdown of Iowa? Like…I’ve heard the western portion is very conservative. What about the East? Central? I have a friend in Davenport…he says it’s very conservative there?
SouthernGent on January 3, 2008 at 8:29 PM
Hmm. Maybe Edwards will pull it out. If these early numbers hold, Obama is being crushed. On the Republican side, I don’t think these can be at all right…. Romney is reported as having no votes at all.
Something’s not quite right there, I think.
Vanceone on January 3, 2008 at 8:30 PM
MB4 on January 3, 2008 at 8:25 PM
LOL!
You know you’re wrong for that! But it is funny.
paul006 on January 3, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Conflicted, aren’t they?
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Heh. Hope that’s not an omen.
Spirit of 1776 on January 3, 2008 at 8:30 PM
John Kerry says they won’t hold.
Spirit of 1776 on January 3, 2008 at 8:31 PM
It was slow to load earlier tonight too…friggin’ thing…
JetBoy on January 3, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Weird.
Both Dems and Reps are showing the exact same numbers, 38%, 33%, 29%, 0, 0 etc. At first I thought it was a bug or something. And I didnt expect to see either McCain and Edwards up front.
Nihaody on January 3, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Fox just reporting early result with Fred in 3rd place with 14.5%
doriangrey on January 3, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Politico reporting McCain (38%), Huck (33%), Thompson (29%)…with all others registering 0%. WTF?
flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Earlier they said that Huck had an Army coming from the Rural areas and they predicted at least a 5% win.
Looks like it could happen.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 8:33 PM
GO FRED GO!
msipes on January 3, 2008 at 8:33 PM
Senator John Edwards : 35.58%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.85%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.01%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.67%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.46%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.24%
Uncommitted : 0.18%
Precincts Reporting: 128 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 8:34 PM
Any word on how many are totin’ banjos and smokin’ corncob pipes?
RedWinged Blackbird on January 3, 2008 at 8:34 PM
Great, trying to get over a cold and just pounded a huge plate of Spaghetti and popped a bottle wine.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 8:34 PM
CNN is something else. They’ve got all their analysts set up like they’re in Kennedy Space Center.
Vizzini on January 3, 2008 at 8:34 PM
East = Cedar Rapids, Waterloo. and Iowa City.
Central = Des Moines.
Waterloo is a union town(John Deere Mfg)
Iowa City is a looney bin left hellhole because of the University
Cedar Rapids is mixed.
Des Moines is mixed( except for Drake College).
A good rule of thumb is that west of Des Moines gets progressively more conservative.
a capella on January 3, 2008 at 8:34 PM
On the Dem website, Silky’s lead is slightly narrowing. The Republican vote–I have no idea, and I don’t know if anyone else does either. Politico’s numbers are wrong, they have to be. It claims McCain is in the lead, but I’ve yet to find any actual reports of votes. Their website is off somehow.
Vanceone on January 3, 2008 at 8:35 PM
Thanks, a capella
SouthernGent on January 3, 2008 at 8:36 PM
How can that happen? Oh wait…
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 8:36 PM
Heh…that just sounds funny.
flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 8:37 PM
4% reporting
Huck 31%
McCain 36%
Fred 28%
Paul 0%
Romny 0%
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 8:38 PM
CNN so far:
Huck 33
Romney 24
Thompson 17
at 2%
davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 8:38 PM
Welp, with the official one percent of precints reporting on the Dem website…. It’s practically a tie with Silky and the Hildabeast. Obama’s a couple points behind…. this is gonna be close.
No clue on the Repubs.
Vanceone on January 3, 2008 at 8:38 PM
My head is spinning from the excellent post at ejectejecteject.com…this remix is eggggzachary what I needed to pull my brain together!
Biffstir on January 3, 2008 at 8:39 PM
Ya know, Im catholic, but if the evangelicals wanna play this Identity Politics game then I hope when its someone else that wins the nomination that they get left out of ALL policy consideratoins.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 8:39 PM
How is it remotely possible that Romney is registering so low?
flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 8:39 PM
Fred at 18% (third) with 2% reporting huck and mitt on top.
sunny on January 3, 2008 at 8:39 PM
Go Thompson go.
Fred!
infidel on January 3, 2008 at 8:39 PM
Fox is showing Fred at 18% now…
doriangrey on January 3, 2008 at 8:39 PM
33 huck 24 Mitt 18 fred
sunny on January 3, 2008 at 8:39 PM
OK,
Huck 33%
Romney 24%
Fred 18%
McCain 12%
from Brit Hume
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 8:40 PM
7% reporting
Rudy 3.1%
Huck 32.48%
Hunter 9%
McCain 36.36%
Paul 0%
Romney 0%
Fred 28.57%
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 8:40 PM
It’s got to be way off. With McCain in the lead and Romney with 0 percent?
Tennman on January 3, 2008 at 8:40 PM
Senator John Edwards : 34.05%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.09%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.86%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.81%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.98%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.12%
Uncommitted : 0.09%
Precincts Reporting: 237 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 8:41 PM
http://dwaynehorner.townhall.com/
7:38 Update: Edwards 34% Clinton 32% Obama 31%….according to CNN with 10% reporting. Republicans…. Huckabee 33% Romney 24% Fred 17% McCain 11%…. 2% reporting
Dhornertx on January 3, 2008 at 8:41 PM
We’re talking about only a few percent of precincts reporting. Some precincts are more pro-once candidate than others. We could currently be going through precincts supporting other candidates.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 8:41 PM
2% reporting from Fox
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 8:41 PM
Is it just me but are the Repubs much older than the Dems on the CSPAN – CSPAN2 that we are flipping back and forth to?
CrimsonFisted on January 3, 2008 at 8:41 PM
Were are you getting those numbers from?
doriangrey on January 3, 2008 at 8:41 PM
bnelson: the politico website live feed is wonky. And not worth it.
Vanceone on January 3, 2008 at 8:41 PM
Go Fred.
He’s fo real.
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 8:42 PM
Respectable 18% for Fred, better than I thought so far.
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 8:42 PM
I don’t own a tv and I can’t get coverage anywhere on the net (just clogged) so thanks and keep the updates coming.
amend2 on January 3, 2008 at 8:42 PM
Huck 33%
Romney 24%
Fred 18%
McCain 12%
This is the real vote total
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 8:43 PM
Fred 18% and moves on to SC and wins that. I would take that all day.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 8:43 PM
numbers are coming from AP
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 8:44 PM
Guess I underestimated the early evangelicals and overestimated the Paul-Nuts.
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 8:44 PM
Chris Farley’s sister speaking in support of Rudy on CSPAN2
Mr Tips on January 3, 2008 at 8:44 PM
Megan looks gooooooood tonight!!
sunny on January 3, 2008 at 8:44 PM
Go Fred!! :)
trailortrash on January 3, 2008 at 8:44 PM
Early results are coming from rural districts…Huckster may still go down in flames.
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 8:45 PM
Strong showing from Edwards, somewhat suprising.
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 8:45 PM
46% evangelicals go for Huck because he shares their values.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 8:45 PM
For once I wish Politico was a reliable source…they’re showing Fred at 31%.
flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 8:45 PM
Damn, I’d like to see Fred steamroller the Huckster. He’s in range.
a capella on January 3, 2008 at 8:45 PM
Holy crap that evangelical discrepancy means we need to get rid of this Iowa caucus.
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 8:46 PM
Megan Kelly got that Jessica Simpson look going on…quite nice on the eyes :)
lsutiger on January 3, 2008 at 8:46 PM
Be still my beating heart.
If Fred’s within sight of 20% at the end of the night, I’m going to be…positively giddy.
TexasDan on January 3, 2008 at 8:46 PM
Hmm. Well, who knows? If Huck’s got 33%…. that’s a disaster. And Silky’s currently holding his lead.
Huck versus Silky? We are all doomed.
Vanceone on January 3, 2008 at 8:46 PM
21% of “late” deciding voters went to thompson. Only huck beat him on that with 27%. per fox
sunny on January 3, 2008 at 8:47 PM
candidates that says what he really feels….
33% Huck
21% Fred
13% Mitt
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 8:47 PM
If Huck wins, I am going to vomit.
muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 8:47 PM
I mean you gotta be kidding. 40% of caucus goers are Evangelicals? Move the caucus to a burrough where the truthers are so RP can win. Sheesh..
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 8:48 PM
That she is!
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 8:48 PM
With twenty percent of the Dem results in, Silky’s still in front by a point or so over Cankles. The Messiah is a point behind her.
Vanceone on January 3, 2008 at 8:49 PM
I see a HumpBot™ in our future.
flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 8:49 PM
McLame. You’re over, dude.
Zach on January 3, 2008 at 8:49 PM
Thompson slipping 14%
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 8:49 PM
Biden and Dodd can’t get 1% between them? I don’t think they even qualify for an official “Campaign 2008″ T-shirt with that showing. At least Kucinich knew it was just a lark and a chance to show off his hot wife.
dedalus on January 3, 2008 at 8:49 PM
No. 60% are evangelical or born again and 46% go for Huck.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 8:50 PM
36 huck 23 mitt 14 fred!!
15% reporting
sunny on January 3, 2008 at 8:50 PM
Hey no cheering yet
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 8:50 PM
Politico is back on track with the numbers
JVelez on January 3, 2008 at 8:50 PM
Looks like Politico fixed the problem, AP reporting:
2% precincts reporting
Rudy 2.26%
Huck 33.38%
Hunter .21%
McCain 11.72%
Paul 10.56%
Romney 24.06%
Fred 17.82%
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 8:50 PM
Yeah, we can’t let the evangelical Christians vote. . . that is so un-American.
ThackerAgency on January 3, 2008 at 8:50 PM
edwards/obama/clinton at the moment now
Spirit of 1776 on January 3, 2008 at 8:51 PM
Politico has Fred at 18%, while Fox has him at 14%.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 8:51 PM
Senator John Edwards : 33.06%
Senator Barack Obama : 32.20%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.14%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.78%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.70%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.08%
Uncommitted : 0.04%
Precincts Reporting: 433 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)
sunny on January 3, 2008 at 8:51 PM
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