Open thread: Raucous caucus!

posted at 7:17 pm on January 3, 2008 by Allahpundit

Iowans are en route to their precinct meetings as we speak. Things get going in earnest at 7:30 p.m. ET, as the Democratic assemblies are called to order, and then the hard business begins at eight. The GOP should be done within the hour, although tabulation may take awhile; the Democrats could be at it for hours beyond that given the vagaries of their “viability” system. Let the Des Moines Register explain it all to you in handy dandy graphic form.

Precinct results will be posted at the Republican and Democratic state party websites but you’re probably better off with Drudge or the Register if you can’t wait for me to update. Naturally the cable news nets are going wall to wall; if you prefer your coverage unadulterated, C-SPAN and C-SPAN2 are all over it. I’ll probably stick with this thread for awhile and then break off into separate posts as big news happens. Check back for updates, and of course feel free to share info in the comments.

As one prominent Republican put it, it’s in “the hands of the good Lord and the people of Iowa now.” No, it wasn’t Huck.

Update (Bryan): I’ve been looking for an appropriate place to post this and inflict our readership with what can only be described as the Hillacackle Funk. Blame me for posting it here, and blame SeeDubya for producing it in the first place.

Update: Mary Katharine likes Obama and, per her Townhall pedigree, Romney to win. Plus, a surprising third for Fred!

Update: “I say this with all compassion, and I say this with love and respect for all of you who support Huckabee. But how dare you compare Mike Huckabee to Ronald Reagan. That is simply intellectually vapid, and it’s grasping at straws.”

Update: On MSNBC, Pat Buchanan asks whether Obama would be a serious contender if he wasn’t black.

Update: Hope for Fredheads?

Update: With just five of 1781 precincts reporting, Silky leads. There are reports in the comments of huge turnout among Democrats, at least, which probably bodes well for Obama.

Update: The state Democratic website is loading like a dream, replete with auto-refresh. The GOP site won’t load at all. Wonderful.

Politico’s posting the results via auto-refresh on its own homepage. One percent of the precincts are reporting.

Update: Lots of reports of heavy turnout, pointing towards big nights for Huck and the Messiah. Maybe a very big night for the Messiah, in fact.

Update: If exit polls are notoriously unreliable, entrance polls must be that much more so. Or so we can hope.

Update: With slightly more than 10% of the Democratic precincts reporting, here’s how it looks:

Senator John Edwards : 34.24%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.12%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.28%

Update (Bryan): I have to say that so far Politico’s front-page numbers are totally useless. They still have Romney at 0% with 7% precincts reporting, for starters.

Update: NBC’s early results are in line with the entrance polls — Huck’s up.

Update: Turnout is massive; ABC says Obama’s people are starting to wonder about a romp. Rudy, meanwhile, appears to be headed for sixth place.

Update: “Registration at one precinct at the museum was approaching 40 percent before the cut-off. That would be four times the amount the Democratic precinct chairman was expecting.”

Update (bp): I drew the short straw so I’m watching MSNBC. Chris Matthews just made a half interesting point. After all the expectations, Hillary could still win by a point and still “lose” as long as Edwards and Obama tie for second.

Update: Only 15% reporting, but Fox has seen enough — they’re calling it for Huck.

Update: With a little more than 33% of precincts in:

Senator Barack Obama : 33.30%
Senator John Edwards : 32.12%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.80%

Update: Half the precincts are in but she’s still just two points off the pace.

Update: The Times says Polk County is neck and neck despite having been expected to break hard for Hillary.

Update: The Clinton legacy hangs by a thread — NBC says it’s Obama’s night.

Update: Don’t look now but with about 85% in, the Glacier is seven points back and fading.

Update: With 78% reporting, Fred’s just a shade behind McCain, both with 13%. Hmmm.

Blowback

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Newt ’08

Weight of Glory on January 3, 2008 at 7:19 PM

SECOND LOOK AT NEW HAMPSHIRE!

Vizzini on January 3, 2008 at 7:19 PM

lol. Awesome clip!

Spirit of 1776 on January 3, 2008 at 7:19 PM

Well, and so it begins…. or ends. Now, the time for results and not just speculation!

I’ll be first to say, Go Mitt!

And a pox on all the Democratic candidates.

Vanceone on January 3, 2008 at 7:20 PM

I’m just waiting for the breathless Politico story citing their anonymous exit pollster to make it’s appearance. Brutal! Painful!

Cuffy Meigs on January 3, 2008 at 7:22 PM

That clip is on a ‘ho’ nudda lebel.

Editor on January 3, 2008 at 7:24 PM

Good place to check out to is HERE the website for IowaGOP-dot-net

JetBoy on January 3, 2008 at 7:24 PM

Drudge has results:

RESULTS:
Clinton 0; Obama 0; Edwards 0
Huckabee 0; Romney 0; McCain 0; Paul 0; Thompson 0; Giuliani 0

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 7:25 PM

meh…scratch my last post there…link no workie, and it’s posted above anyhoo….I’m just in Fred! suspense, and it’s gettin’ too much…

JetBoy on January 3, 2008 at 7:26 PM

SECOND LOOK AT THE GOOD LORD.

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 7:26 PM

Let the recriminations begin!

Dudley Smith on January 3, 2008 at 7:27 PM

I’m Ready.

amend2 on January 3, 2008 at 7:28 PM

Fred nation anticipation.

Fred!

infidel on January 3, 2008 at 7:29 PM

Regardless of who wins tonight I’m sure of one thing: America will lose.

Thanks a lot you useless Republican party.

2Brave2Bscared on January 3, 2008 at 7:30 PM

I pray Mitt wins so Huckabee will go away and Fred takes third so he will stand a chance of getting back in it.

davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 7:31 PM

Ladys and Gentlemen start your political engines.

canopfor on January 3, 2008 at 7:31 PM

2nd look at Newt, anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

SouthernGent on January 3, 2008 at 7:32 PM

ZOMG it’s finally happening.

I’m honestly more excited for this than I was for Christmas. And I got Scotch for Christmas.

askheaves on January 3, 2008 at 7:32 PM

Oh, Bryan. Dude.

Tennman on January 3, 2008 at 7:32 PM

Yeah… DUDE.

NTWR on January 3, 2008 at 7:33 PM

Weight of Glory on January 3, 2008 at 7:19 PM

sorry,…. Newt’s new book is Enviro Whacko Green… someone musta slipped him the CoolAid…

Romeo13 on January 3, 2008 at 7:34 PM

yeah, let the best sh*t slinger win. pffft.
What good does that do once they get in office? NOTHING!

johnnyU on January 3, 2008 at 7:35 PM

sorry,…. Newt’s new book is Enviro Whacko Green… someone musta slipped him the CoolAid…

I’d still vote for him over anyone running now.

davenp35 on January 3, 2008 at 7:36 PM

Regardless of who wins tonight I’m sure of one thing: America will lose.

Thanks a lot you useless Republican party.

2Brave2Bscared on January 3, 2008 at 7:30 PM

Not so. All of the Republicans, save Paul, have the ability and intelligence to conceivably be fine Presidents– even fine conservatives. One may rise to the challenge. The “fratboy” GWB unexpectedly did in his relentless war against the terrorists.

On the Democrat side, neither ability or intelligence for any of them. A belief in socialism is not intelligent.

JiangxiDad on January 3, 2008 at 7:36 PM

I’ve been looking for an appropriate place to post this and inflict our readership

John McCain says no waterboarding and no Hillacackle Funk.

Spirit of 1776 on January 3, 2008 at 7:37 PM

In the video,Veronica Fowler,very close to Jennifer Flowers.
The message from either women would still be the same.

canopfor on January 3, 2008 at 7:37 PM

God Bless SeeDubya for leaving out the Star Spangled Banner.

Editor on January 3, 2008 at 7:38 PM

Bold prediction; lots of nukes tonight.

steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 7:38 PM

hot pizza: check
cold beverage: check
friends online: check
demented soundtrack: check
box of Kleenex handy: NOT!

RushBaby on January 3, 2008 at 7:40 PM

Sorry, Brian, but I couldn’t make it through the “Hillacackle Funk”; I really tried. Not knowing when it would end was the worst. Kind of like a Hillary win. (Yuck, now I gotta go wash out my mouth.)

IrishEyes on January 3, 2008 at 7:40 PM

Yark, Bryan and See-Dub.

steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 7:40 PM

Can someone pipe in the Godfather theme music to set
the mood! HEhe

canopfor on January 3, 2008 at 7:42 PM

No photoshop of Ron Paul doing the Dean Scream?
No anticipation of the Humping Robot video if Fred survives?

I’m feeling depressed already.

Dave Shay on January 3, 2008 at 7:44 PM

I would respond but, thanks to the combination of Hillary cackling and trying to speak like the H-Dawg, I’ve got to clean up after my pet now. ;-0

Seriously, while too early to fill in the template, the story for tomorrow’s newspapers has already been written.

Candidate X pulled out a shocker victory.

Candidate Y pulled in a disappointing number considering how much was spent campaigning.

Candidate Z, while hoping to come in stronger, is setting sights on New Hampshire where he/she/it has better poll numbers.

This stuff (at this point in the campaign) is just sports reporting for wonks!

highhopes on January 3, 2008 at 7:45 PM

I predict that Rush will play the Hillacackle Funk on Open Line Friday if you send it to him.

NTWR on January 3, 2008 at 7:47 PM

Even Donna Brazille is openly cheering for OPEN BORDERS ZEALOT….The Huckster. Loony Libs should have just brought their pom-poms….Why do they hate Romney so bad?

DfDeportation on January 3, 2008 at 7:48 PM

Hillacackle Funk

Nicely done see-dub!

And lovin’ the Stroker Ace vid too!

JetBoy on January 3, 2008 at 7:48 PM

& this here song’s fer FRED!
Your Feet Can’t Fail you now Baby!!!!!!
http://youtube.com/watch?v=PAh5dJ3T4vI

lobosan5 on January 3, 2008 at 7:49 PM

After listening to the music, Kid N Play nod their collective heads in approval of the beat.

mattshu on January 3, 2008 at 7:51 PM

canopfor on January 3, 2008 at 7:42 PM

Here you go

Tennman on January 3, 2008 at 7:51 PM

Iowa where Huckel meets Cackle

William Amos on January 3, 2008 at 7:52 PM

Thanks all; it was a labor of love, and profound annoyance.

I think the scariest sample of all is the cut from Hill’s perfume ad where she says “I know you’ve waited a long time for a president who can hear you and see you”. Orwell meets Kathy Bates in Misery.

I do hope someone sends it in to Rush. That would be cool.

Editor, I’m saving the Star Spangled Banner for the EP release.

see-dubya on January 3, 2008 at 7:53 PM

Thanks a lot Bryan! My wife heard that and now she thinks we are all crazy!

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 7:55 PM

On MSNBC, Pat Buchanan asks whether Obama would be a serious contender if he wasn’t black.

I wonder if Pat Buchannon would have been such a serious contender if he wasnt so stupid ?

William Amos on January 3, 2008 at 7:55 PM

Update: On MSNBC, Pat Buchanan asks whether Obama would be a serious contender if he wasn’t black.

Didn’t Rush get thrown off ESPN for saying something like that?

sunny on January 3, 2008 at 7:55 PM

here is a Wrong Paul face I photoshopped:
http://www.thesitrep.com/ron_paul_freak/ronfife.jpg

TheSitRep on January 3, 2008 at 7:55 PM

If Huck takes first tonight, it’s proof that Iowa is absolutely meaningless.

flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 7:56 PM

RESULTS:
Clinton 0; Obama 0; Edwards 0
Huckabee 0; Romney 0; McCain 0; Paul 0; Thompson 0; Giuliani 0

My God, it IS close, just as the pundits have told us!

CliffHanger on January 3, 2008 at 7:57 PM

see-dubya on January 3, 2008 at 7:53 PM

I would, but I gave up my Rush 24/7 about a year ago.

steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 7:57 PM

Update: On MSNBC, Pat Buchanan asks whether Obama would be a serious contender if he wasn’t black.

*sigh*

JetBoy on January 3, 2008 at 7:57 PM

TheSitRep on January 3, 2008 at 7:55 PM

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you Ron Paulsen.

flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 7:58 PM

All of the Republicans, save Paul, have the ability and intelligence to conceivably be fine Presidents– even fine conservatives.

Uh-huh. And I’m the Pope.

You’re a regular Sean Hannity listener, aren’t you?

The “fratboy” GWB unexpectedly did in his relentless war against the terrorists.

That makes GWB a conservative? His silly “War on Terror” and “spread democracy throughout the Middle East” mantra? Give me a break. George W. Bush and the Republican congress of ’94-’96 have done more to destroy traditional conservatism than anything else within the last 20 years or so.

And Mitt, Rudy, Huckabee, McCain, and even Fred Thompson are merely more of the same pseudo-conservative trash.

2Brave2Bscared on January 3, 2008 at 7:58 PM

On MSNBC, Pat Buchanan asks whether Obama would be a serious contender if he wasn’t black.

I wonder if Pat Buchannon would have been such a serious contender if he wasnt so stupid ?

And what, pray tell, was so stupid about Buchanan’s inquiry?

2Brave2Bscared on January 3, 2008 at 8:00 PM

Hope for Fredheads?

Always hope. Caucuses favor the ideologically motivated over the casual voter

William Amos on January 3, 2008 at 8:00 PM

Tennman on January 3, 2008 at 7:51 PM

I almost like that better than the movie version.

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 8:00 PM

94-’96

That should be ’06, not ’96

2Brave2Bscared on January 3, 2008 at 8:01 PM

2Brave2Bscared on January 3, 2008 at 7:58 PM

Ummm, Paulbot much?

Tennman on January 3, 2008 at 8:01 PM

TheSitRep at 7:55 PM
flipflop at 7:58 PM

Good stuff!

RushBaby on January 3, 2008 at 8:02 PM

Ooooooooowwwwooooo. Bill O disess the Iowan caucus.

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 8:02 PM

Here you go.

Tennman on January 3,2007 at 7:51PM.

Tennman:Hehe thanks,that was cool,but horrors no
violins or cow bells.

canopfor on January 3, 2008 at 8:03 PM

@ Tennman on January 3, 2008 at 8:01 PM

He is absolutely right.

muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 8:04 PM

Things get going in earnest at 7:30 p.m. ET, as the Democratic assemblies are called to order, and then the hard business begins at eight.

Gorging on the food and drink supplied by the vote buyers candidates and picking your favorite among The Three Stooges is hard?

How so?

MB4 on January 3, 2008 at 8:05 PM

priceless caller moment on cspan.

“I mean, just look at them.”

Mr Tips on January 3, 2008 at 8:05 PM

Buchanan is becoming marginalized

KBird on January 3, 2008 at 8:06 PM

muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 8:04 PM

I’ve gotta ask about your nick…if I remember my Spanish (and there’s no guarantee that I do), your name translates as “very bear”.

flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 8:07 PM

muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 8:04 PM

Well, it’s much better if bots run in pairs.

Tennman on January 3, 2008 at 8:08 PM

Dick Morris sez:

1) Iowans lie.
2) Ground organization isn’t reliable.
3) Iowa matters in the grand scheme.
4) If Hillicackle loses, she loses a few other states.

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 8:08 PM

This waiting reminds me of Bugs Bunny on the pirate ship
and bugs keeps tossing matches into the gunpowder room.
And the waiting period before Yosemite Sam can’t wait anymore and ka-boom.haha

canopfor on January 3, 2008 at 8:08 PM

@ flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 8:07 PM

Indeed it does. I am as white as white could be, but for some reason i came up with that stupid name when i was in highschool and stuck with it online since.

muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 8:08 PM

Ummm, Paulbot much?

Heh. I knew I’d be accused of that by someone. So predictable.

No, I’m not a Ron Paul supporter.

2Brave2Bscared on January 3, 2008 at 8:09 PM

CNN Entrance Polls…

Republican
-Romney and Huckabee

Democrat
-tight Obama and Clinton, Edwards behind

Not exactly newsworthy, particularly without numbers, but oh well. A starting point.

Vizzini on January 3, 2008 at 8:09 PM

@ Tennman on January 3, 2008 at 8:08 PM

If supporting conservative principles makes me a bot, name be Mr. Bot.

muyoso on January 3, 2008 at 8:10 PM

CNN has some entrance polls Up

Entrance Poll for Dems: Tight race between Obama and Clinton. Edwards behind.

Entrance Poll for the GOP: Tight between Huck and Mitt.

The entrance polls, at least according to CNN, have been more reliable on the GOP side.

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 8:10 PM

Vizzini on January 3, 2008 at 8:09 PM

Ha! Get out of my mind, dude. :-)

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 8:10 PM

This just in: The US Pirate Party endorses Obama…

JetBoy on January 3, 2008 at 8:11 PM

2Brave2Bscared on January 3, 2008 at 8:09 PM

Oh, I’m sorry. I mistook your statement for a lunatic rant. Please forgive me. Just playin’ wid ya.

Tennman on January 3, 2008 at 8:11 PM

CSPAN is showing the dems already in progress.

CSPAN-2 is showing the Republicans and there appears to be a HUGE line…they haven’t even started yet. Hmmmmmmm

SouthernGent on January 3, 2008 at 8:11 PM

Although, I have to say, Ron Paul is much closer to true, traditional conservatism than pretty much every other candidate in the field — certainly among the “front runners.”

2Brave2Bscared on January 3, 2008 at 8:12 PM

amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 8:10 PM

lol, great minds…

Vizzini on January 3, 2008 at 8:12 PM

Dem results reporting in

Senator John Edwards : 48.98%
Senator Barack Obama : 29.20%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 17.01%
Governor Bill Richardson : 4.81%
Precincts Reporting: 3 of 1781

(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 8:12 PM

Text message from one Republican caucus-goer:

“Cafeteria packed and the line goes down the hall and out the front door of the school!”

then

“Much bigger turnout than anticipated!”

askheaves on January 3, 2008 at 8:13 PM

Update: On MSNBC, Pat Buchanan asks whether Obama would be a serious contender if he wasn’t black.

Are we so PC the question is out of bounds? Sounds a little like what Rush said to me.

Spirit of 1776 on January 3, 2008 at 8:14 PM

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 8:12 PM

Those rural or city precincts?

Vizzini on January 3, 2008 at 8:14 PM

2Brave2Bscared on January 3, 2008 at 8:12 PM

Okay. Sorry, but you apparently are infected with bot-ulism. Drink clear liquids and put down the alcohol.

Tennman on January 3, 2008 at 8:14 PM

are you seeing these turnout numbers for dem caucuses, in one precinct 267 showed, same precinct in 2004, 87 showed!

that is huge.

zane on January 3, 2008 at 8:14 PM

“Much bigger turnout than anticipated!”

askheaves on January 3, 2008 at 8:13 PM

Hmmm…wonder if that bodes well for Fred.

flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 8:15 PM

Update: With just five of 1781 precincts reporting, Silky leads.

That baby has an auto refresh on it! Nice.

Spirit of 1776 on January 3, 2008 at 8:15 PM

Senator Hillary Clinton : 35.52%
Senator John Edwards : 35.15%
Senator Barack Obama : 27.12%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.21%
Precincts Reporting: 7 of 1781

(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)

bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 8:16 PM

Hmmm…wonder if that bodes well for Fred.

flipflop on January 3, 2008 at 8:15 PM

I don’t know, but my source is a friend’s brother who is there (Ankeny) specifically to speak on Fred!’s behalf.

askheaves on January 3, 2008 at 8:17 PM

With 8 precints, Hillary has a slight lead over Edwards…. but it’s close. Obama’s pretty far back. But that’s 8 out of 1781, so early yet.

Not sure on the Elephant side yet.

Vanceone on January 3, 2008 at 8:17 PM

Keep the faith Fredheads! Fred got 20% in a spot poll of people in line.

csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 8:17 PM

CNN entrance poll shows mean age of candidates supporters:

Obama supporter 28.3 years old.
Edwards supporter 47.8 years old.
Hillary supporter 87.4 years old.

MB4 on January 3, 2008 at 8:18 PM

Heh. I’m much more impressed with the Dem website, oddly. It’s got auto refresh… and I can’t even get the GOP site to load. It must be being slammed at the moment.

Vanceone on January 3, 2008 at 8:19 PM

Okay. Sorry, but you apparently are infected with bot-ulism. Drink clear liquids and put down the alcohol.

And you’re obviously infected with a bad case of right-liberalism. Bite me.

2Brave2Bscared on January 3, 2008 at 8:19 PM

MB4 on January 3, 2008 at 8:18 PM

Classic.

Vizzini on January 3, 2008 at 8:19 PM

I can’t get any GOP site to load either.. but I’ll take that as a good thing.

amend2 on January 3, 2008 at 8:21 PM

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