It’s time: Predictions
posted at 2:03 pm on January 3, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Billy Jeff’s made his so we’ll take that as our cue. I was set this morning to pick the Glacier in an upset, partly to be a contrarian and partly because I’m still traumatized by the Clintonian aura of invincibility from the 90s. But everything’s breaking against her — the polls, the independents, even the buzz inside the Fox News green room, all of which raises the slim yet real possibility of an earth-shattering, too-much-to-hope-for semi-landslide flameout. I simply won’t believe that a Clinton could do that badly in a Democratic race until I see it happen, so let’s call it Obama, then Hillary within seven points, then Silky a close third.
I’ll be the contrarian on the Republican side and pick Mitt. Not because I really think he’s going to win, but because after reading crap like this for the past month, I can’t quite digest the idea that Iowa’s actually going to pull the trigger on Huck. Romney, then Huck within six, then … McCain, and then Fred.
I leave you with Mitt, responding to another one of those nasty attacks that the Huckabee camp fortunately doesn’t engage in.
Update: Low turnout — bad for Huck, good for Mitt and Fred?
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Dems: Obama.
Republicans: Fred will do better than expected, but Romney will win.
pistolero on January 3, 2008 at 2:07 PM
Obama wins, followed by Silky, then Hildebeest
Mitt squeaks barely, Huck, Fred by enough that he can keep going.
Bad Candy on January 3, 2008 at 2:08 PM
dems Hillary Obama Edwards
Reubs : HuckaBoyeee Then La Romeny then Mccain
zane on January 3, 2008 at 2:09 PM
I see Obama in first, Hillary possibly second. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her in third, though.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 2:09 PM
Republicans:
1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee
Democrats:
1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton
SoulGlo on January 3, 2008 at 2:09 PM
Yowza—I just realized that’s the first time I’ve heard Romney make a funny at his own expense. Good job.
Cuffy Meigs on January 3, 2008 at 2:11 PM
Huck will flame out after Iowa. He is a little too folksy to get too much respect in the harder nosed parts of the country. Rudy looks like he is in over his head, Fred looks shakey, and McCain voted for amnesty. Romney wins the nomination by Default.
McCain will surge, but when the others trawel out the Ted Kennedy immigration love fest photos taken during the immigration debate, McCain will once again be the whipping boy.
saiga on January 3, 2008 at 2:11 PM
H2O
Hillary and Huckabee Oh my!
ThackerAgency on January 3, 2008 at 2:11 PM
Dems: Obama.
Republicans:Romney
trailortrash on January 3, 2008 at 2:12 PM
Republicans:
Huckabee
Romney
Thompson
Democrats:
Obama
Hillary
Edwards
HebrewToYou on January 3, 2008 at 2:12 PM
Here’s where I’ve been since last night…
DEMS:
1. Obama 31
2. Clinton 28
3. Edwards 25
GOP:
1. Romney 30
2. Huckabee 28
3. McCain 15
4. “Fred!” 14
ConBlog_NH on January 3, 2008 at 2:13 PM
R…..Fred/Romney/McCain/Huck/Rudy/Paul
D…..Clinton/Obama/Edwards
Lotto….7-9-14-15-41-50
Limerick on January 3, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Predictions? God knows…
All I know is that this country, in this day and age, can do far better than select all its candidates from the state of Arkansas…
IntheNet on January 3, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Romney
Huck
McCain
Fred
Obama
Clinton
silky
Romney and Clinton win the nominations. (think about California and New York. Those two states can just about win the nomination for you.
saiga on January 3, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Heh.
amerpundit on January 3, 2008 at 2:15 PM
Hm.
GOP
1. Romney 28
2. Huckabee 26
3. Thompson 17
4. Paul 12
Dems
1. Obama 32
2. Edwards 28
3. Clinton 26
Slublog on January 3, 2008 at 2:15 PM
Well, if we’re picking the Lotto numbers, I have to go with 4-8-15-16-23-42. ;)
ConBlog_NH on January 3, 2008 at 2:15 PM
Dems:
Don’t Care. Probably Edwards.
GOP:
Romney 32
Huck 28
Fred 15
McCain 13
BKennedy on January 3, 2008 at 2:15 PM
Obama by 4-5%, then Edwards barely over Hillary.
Mitt over Huck, but close, then Fred, McCain, Paul, Guiliani, Hunter.
Spirit of 1776 on January 3, 2008 at 2:17 PM
Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Thompson
Paul
Giuliani
…
***
Edwards
Obama
Clinton
Biden
Richardson
…
Big S on January 3, 2008 at 2:18 PM
Given that Obama was using white lawn signs in Iowa during the winter, I’m guessing that nobody will remember that he’s running. Also, Hillary had an edge on the number of them over Edwards.
Given that I saw no lawn signs for anybody but Mitt (on the right), he’s the only one they know about.
D: Hillary 60, Edwards 40, Obama 0
R: Mitt 100, Huck 0, Paul: 110 (somehow)
askheaves on January 3, 2008 at 2:18 PM
Prediction? Prediction?
…Pain.
kayawanee on January 3, 2008 at 2:21 PM
Here’s my shot, based on nothing but conjecture.
On the Dems, I’ll take Edwards since its do or die for him and he’s invested the most time there–Edwards, Obama, Billary.
In the GOP, I’ll agree with AP on Romney though I’ll say Huck is within 3 points and Fred finishes even or ahead of McCain at around 15% just to make the ultimate outcome as murky as possible. Ron Paul ends up with about 7%. Rudy ends up with 3% and remotes in from Disney World to Hannity’s show wearing a Seminoles shirt, Gators hat and announcing that he’s just made it into Dwayne Wade’s five.
dedalus on January 3, 2008 at 2:21 PM
Republicans:
Mitt 28%
Huck 25%
Fred 17%
Democrats:
Obama 32%
Edwards 27%
Hillary 25%
Drew on January 3, 2008 at 2:21 PM
DemocRATS: O’Bama Hussien, Silky Pony, Cankles
Republicans: Romney, Huckster (God help us. He will fizzle out eventually), Fred. I also believe Fred will do better than expected.
Winebabe on January 3, 2008 at 2:22 PM
Cheney… by a landslide
write in of course.
Kaptain Amerika on January 3, 2008 at 2:23 PM
Democrats:
1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton
Republicans:
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Thompson
(These are predictions, not preferences.)
paul006 on January 3, 2008 at 2:24 PM
That’s a little low for Paul, don’t you think?
They will find a way!
Slublog on January 3, 2008 at 2:25 PM
D: Obama 34; Edwards 30; Clinton 27.
R: Huck 28; Mitt 25; McCain 17; Fred 15; Paul 7.
thirtypundit on January 3, 2008 at 2:25 PM
Prediction: We’re doomed.
Attila (Pillage Idiot) on January 3, 2008 at 2:26 PM
Fred drops out soon, Rudy fires one of his senior campaign leadership people in order to “re-focus” his campaign, and McCain begins to openly repent his foolish amnesty meltdown. He is already beginning to talk about the American people not trusting the government to do what they say they will. When he starts talking about how he was out of touch with the American people and he used bad judgement on ignoring the law his remorse will be complete.
saiga on January 3, 2008 at 2:27 PM
Honestly, I’m really scared that they’ll get every Paulnut in the state to the caucuses where they may just run the table. I’m expecting Ron to have a way better-than-expected showing.
askheaves on January 3, 2008 at 2:27 PM
Nice! If only…
CP on January 3, 2008 at 2:29 PM
Winner- Democrats: A barely closeted socialist.
Winner- Republicans: A barely closeted RINO.
Loser- Everyone else, including the voters.
Hollowpoint on January 3, 2008 at 2:30 PM
Good for Hill?
ROFL!
BacaDog on January 3, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Republicans:
Mitt 27%
Huck 26%
Fred 18%
Democrats:
Edwards 32%
Clinton 27%
Obama 25%
sonnyspats1 on January 3, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Thompson exceeds blogger expectations.
Fred!
infidel on January 3, 2008 at 2:31 PM
…or in the states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
calbear on January 3, 2008 at 2:33 PM
I pick an Allah/MKH ticket.
Bank it……….
broker1 on January 3, 2008 at 2:34 PM
RushBaby 1.8
Won’t be driving tonight.
RushBaby on January 3, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Me too. Expect a lot of crazy at the Iowa caucuses tomorrow night. Every Paultard in Iowa is going to show up by the
busloadblimpload, even if it means getting fired from their pizza delivery jobs.Still, that doesn’t really hurt the other candidates in relative standings because his support is a distinct subset of voters; I doubt that any significant number of sane voters are going to swing their votes from their preferred candidate to the Bircheresque Crank.
Hollowpoint on January 3, 2008 at 2:35 PM
You switch it around you got my vote. Sorry Allah.
infidel on January 3, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Prediction! The new Hot Air meme when Hill-o-Beans wins the WH.
sonnyspats1 on January 3, 2008 at 2:35 PM
God help us… the election in 2008 is SOOO important…
Dems:
1. Obama
2. Silky
3. Hell-da-Beast
GOP
1. Romney
2. Fred
3. McCain
4. Huck
The whole Huck thing is the MSM trying to create the outcome.
stenwin77 on January 3, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Romney
Edwards
MB4 on January 3, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Limerick,
Were those lotto numbers for the Illinois Lottery by chance? :)
major john on January 3, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Oh lordy, MB4 and I are agreeing on something. Quick, someone get me my exorcist >_>
BKennedy on January 3, 2008 at 2:39 PM
My predictions for Iowa:
Dems:
1. Obama
2. Hillary
3. Silky
Republicans:
1. Mitt
2. Huck
3. Fred
4. Mack
But wtf do I know? After all, I’m just a Canuck. ;-)
notta_dhimmi on January 3, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Romney
The Huckster
McCain/Fred
Obamarama
Silky Pony
Mrs. Bill Clinton
roux on January 3, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Can anyone explain why with the very compressed primary schedule the convention is in September? Especially if there is no clear winner after super tuesday and there is a chance of a brokered convention?
anyway:
Dems: Obambi, Silky, followed by some other person that’s running
Repub: Romney, Huckster, Fred, McCain, paulbot, Keyes… did I forget any?
Canadian Imperialist Running Dog on January 3, 2008 at 2:41 PM
My prediction. (NSFW: Language. But a classic.)
ReubenJCogburn on January 3, 2008 at 2:42 PM
Republicans:
1. Romney
2. Huckster
3. Fred!
Democrats:
1. Obama (largely due to other candidates telling their folks to vote for him if push comes to shove)
2. Clinton
3. Edweird
LakeRuins on January 3, 2008 at 2:42 PM
R: Romney, Huckabee, Thompson
D: Obama, Edwards, Hillary
tanmany2k on January 3, 2008 at 2:47 PM
Huckabee (slight margin)
Romney
Fred
Edwards
Obama
Clinton
Entelechy on January 3, 2008 at 2:47 PM
Not a prediction; already a fact: Mrs. Billy Jeff and the MSM will spin a win no matter where she really places.
Brat on January 3, 2008 at 2:47 PM
Prediction: With the writers strike this is the most over hyped, boring, reality show on tv. I think Donald Trump’s new season of “Who ‘da Boss, oh yeah I am and you’re fired” starts tonight. And the VT versus Kansas bowl game will have more viewers then IA has voters.
LakeRuins on January 3, 2008 at 2:48 PM
Dude!
Enrique on January 3, 2008 at 2:50 PM
Virginia Tech, 24-20
Brat on January 3, 2008 at 2:51 PM
No worries there! The problem is the MSM and so-called moderates are rooting for a subway series where it is Rudy against Hillary with Bloomberg and Romney as the second-stringers if they have to expand the field to keep this all an election based in a tiny part of a large nation.
I wouldn’t mind so much if it were for the right reasons. Sadly too many of them (both sides of the aisle) are making this into a NYC Marathon because they hate the values of us Midwesterners. They don’t value life (as expressed in being anti-murder). They don’t value immigration reform (as expressed in building that damned wall and refusing to grant amnesty to the illegals). They don’t value traditional values (by being against the legalization of sodomite marriage and the continued criminalization of drugs).
In short far too many Rudy/Romney supporters do so because they think selecting a candidate from a socialist state will circumvent the power of the so-called Jesus freaks.
highhopes on January 3, 2008 at 2:52 PM
D: Messiah, Hildebeast, Silky, etc
R: Mitt, Huck, McCain, Paul, Fred, Rudy, etc
Mark Jaquith on January 3, 2008 at 2:53 PM
My prediction is: chances of space poop hitting someone in continental U.S 1% chance of said space poop causing more global warming 75% chance of space poop just being another phrase for politician…well, I’ll leave that all to you.
RJS2 on January 3, 2008 at 2:58 PM
Nice. Wishful thinking on my part, though.
Mark, really? Lotta people here see Mitt pulling it out against the Huckster. I like that. My problem is that if it’s Obamessiah v Huckster in the general election, I’ll probably have to cast a vote for the Huckster. Ugh…
Jaibones on January 3, 2008 at 2:58 PM
Dems
1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Hillary
Repubs.
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain
asc85 on January 3, 2008 at 2:59 PM
The cracked hard-boiled shell says:
Republicans
Huckabee – 26%
Romney – 24%
Thompson – 19%
Paul – 10%
McCain – 9%
Hunter – 5% (beats Giuliani by fractions of a percent)
Giuliani – 5%
Keyes – 2%
Democrats
Edwards – 30%
Obama – 29%
Clinton – 28%
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 2:59 PM
Donks:
Lenin
GOPS:
Smoochie
ronsfi on January 3, 2008 at 3:00 PM
Now there’s a prediction you can take to the bank.
pistolero on January 3, 2008 at 3:01 PM
think: Edward Norton
ronsfi on January 3, 2008 at 3:01 PM
DEMONS: Obama, Silky, Hill
GOP: Mitt, Hucklebilly, Fred!
saved on January 3, 2008 at 3:02 PM
Republicans:
Huckabee
Thompson
Romney
Democrats:
Edwards
Obama
Hillary
May not be exact but closer to the above than most people could EVER believe.
Sincerely,
Starbuck :)
Nelsa on January 3, 2008 at 3:02 PM
I predict: No one cares about Iowa and this whole stupid thing is annoying. Why does the least influential state get to make so much noise? Even if you were trying to name all 50 states from memory, the only other one you’d forget as easily might be Nebraska. Who cares about Iowa? They might as well have this big event here in Vermont… We’re even less diverse up here.
RightWinged on January 3, 2008 at 3:02 PM
As much as I would love to see that (I wonder whether whether AP would replace the bag with a luchadore mask), The Hammer is just a wee bit too young to run for VP (there’s this nasty little provision of the Constitution that says that if one is ineligible to run for President, they’re ineligible to be VP).
steveegg on January 3, 2008 at 3:03 PM
Chuckleberry
Yacht Salesman
Maverick
B.Hussein
Pink Saphire
Hildebeast
But for all you yacht purchasers out there here’s the story of Iowa: Mitt had a ton of dough and a wide open field and he couldn’t make the sale. Even id he ekes out a win, he couldn’t make the sale.
That’s it.
He had the place all to himself for so long. If he were the presidential timbre doe-eyed Hugh says he is as he looks up at him from a tearful embrace of his ankles, no one would have ever heard of the Chuckleberry.
Put another way, Chuckleberry filled a vaccuum. That vaccuum is Mitt.
Typhoon on January 3, 2008 at 3:06 PM
Pats go 19-0 in winning the Super Bowl, and if you are a pundit that is to be taken seriously, you know that helps Mitt.
Sincerely,
Hugh Hewitt
thirteen28 on January 3, 2008 at 3:06 PM
Rep:
Romney
Huck
McCain
Dem:
Che
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Grafted on January 3, 2008 at 3:06 PM
I wholeheartedly agree. The logic of packing-it-in over a single vote in Iowa makes no sense to me whatsoever and I think this whole game is a ridiculous disservice to the rest of the country.
CP on January 3, 2008 at 3:07 PM
Asses: Edwards, Obama, Clinton
Elephants: Huck, Rhino, Mitt, Fred, Rudy
At this point though, I think Rhino will be the man running against Clinton.
Hening on January 3, 2008 at 3:07 PM
Winners:
The Oprah
Chuck Norris
Losers:
The candidate endorsed by The Oprah
The candidate endorsed by Chuck Norris
Brat on January 3, 2008 at 3:09 PM
I really, really hope that Fred! does better than expected; does that make me as delusional as the average Paultard?
I hope not.
Kensington on January 3, 2008 at 3:13 PM
You forgot about forgetting about North Dakota. I just spoke with a nice girl from there today. It’s one of my favorite states BECAUSE nobody is there to mess it up.
ThackerAgency on January 3, 2008 at 3:13 PM
Romney is an absolute phony. That Iowan linked to in the article is correct. He’s not a social conservative whatsoever, barely a fiscal conservative, and is entirely unconvincing on his foreign policy cred. Huckabee may not be any better on that front, but he’s a true so-con and his fiscal policies were effective, common-sense, and beneficial to the people of Arkansas — plus his endorsement of the FairTax has been a brilliant move.
The real tragedy of this all is that Romney’s done such a good job of fooling people with his faux-heartfelt conversion on almost every major issue. At least Huckabee’s defended his past record for the most part. Romney pretends it doesn’t exist. I can’t stand hypocrisy, and the fact that he hides his past while attacking Huckabee is the pinnacle of dirty politics.
I hope Huckabee wins in Iowa. At this point, he really deserves it.
Jared White on January 3, 2008 at 3:14 PM
Republicans:
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain
Democrats:
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
Huckabee gave up a first place finish by flying to do the tonight Show, but it was still a good move to get some more nationwide support. Edwards will be back to chasing ambulances soon. Thompson will be out if he doesn’t place first in SC. Hunter gone after Iowa. Hillary chooses Vilsack for running mate.
tommuck on January 3, 2008 at 3:14 PM
Yes. The idea that candidates invest years in this one state, and some candidates drop out based on the results from one state is the wrong way to choose the most important job in America.
Might have been cool if someone like Rudy ran against Iowa. Made a point of saying it was a disservice to the rest of the states. It would have kept him in the news and put a good spin on why he’s going to get close to zilch there. Also, voters in other states might have been convinced that he was standing up for them.
dedalus on January 3, 2008 at 3:15 PM
Why can’t they have all 50 states hold their primary/caucus vote on the same day…just like for the general election? That way, we have the “presumptive nominee” picked in one shot…
JetBoy on January 3, 2008 at 3:16 PM
Prediction:
Hugh turnout for the Democrats
Republicans:
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Fred (tie)
3. McCain (tie)
4. Ron Paul
Democrats:
1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 3:17 PM
Hillary
Silky
Obama
Huck
Romney
Paulnuts
(2 of the top R’s will unfortunatley be puke-inducing)
Clark1 on January 3, 2008 at 3:17 PM
We almost have that coming up this year with Super Duper Tuesday
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 3:17 PM
I predict that my Jack Daniels bottle will not be far away tonight.
Oh, you mean the caucus?
Dems
Obama
Silky
Hilldabeast
Repubs
Mitt
Huck
Fred
McCain
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 3:19 PM
Oh, and I also predict that there will be several on here tonight telling AP and Michelle it’s all their fault Fred is third.
conservnut on January 3, 2008 at 3:23 PM
Dems: Osama, Pony, Witch
Reps: Mittster, Fred!, McCain, upcHuck
HerrMorgenholz on January 3, 2008 at 3:25 PM
Jesus Christ. He’s running to defend the free world, shmuck, not invite your cornfed arse to White House dinners.
Mark V. on January 3, 2008 at 3:25 PM
I predict that the 2012 campaign begins the second the election returns from 2008 are in. The media driven, never ending campaign.
deadbackpacker on January 3, 2008 at 3:25 PM
I’m goin’ with THIS:
Ex-tex on January 3, 2008 at 3:26 PM
I have to say–and speaking from a purely selfish point of view–I’d hate a National Primary. I love the whole process as a political junkie. Even if my state didn’t have the first primary, I’d still love to follow it all. This whole thing is a marathon and I love it every step of the way…even Wyoming. ;)
ConBlog_NH on January 3, 2008 at 3:28 PM
The numbers are bad dude.
csdeven on January 3, 2008 at 3:29 PM
Huck wins Iowa, Romney close second. The big surprise: Ron Paul is going to come in third.
(What? Hey, somebody’s gotta make an out-there call.)
Well-Armed Lamb on January 3, 2008 at 3:30 PM
Wow, so much to read.
D’s…BO, Silky, HRC
R’s…Mitt, Huck, McCain
Side bet…not to hijack your post AP, but why not start a poll about which dem will be the first to file a lawsuit demanding a recount when they lose. This won’t apply to Iowa, but everywhere else applies.
swami on January 3, 2008 at 3:31 PM
Fun!
Jaibones on January 3, 2008 at 3:33 PM
Paul isn’t beating McCain in Iowa
bnelson44 on January 3, 2008 at 3:34 PM
I’m with you but the flip side of that thought is that we might get a sane energy policy if politicians didn’t have to be laden with bio-fuel initiatives merely intended to keep the voters in Iowa happy for the next election by ensuring that their corn subsidies don’t go away.
A “national primary” would be more of a straw vote to narrow down the field of all the Kucinich/Paul moonbats who do nothing but take up space and make a nusance of themselves. I know it would be expensive and require far more citizenship than most Americans are willing to put forth but I think the real solution is a combo where there is a national vote to get rid of all the pests and then some sort of primary system that sets up legitimate debates on the real issues by the serious candidates.
highhopes on January 3, 2008 at 3:37 PM
Congratulations on your Coming Out, Jared. You’re what we used to call a Conservative Democrat. Socially conservative, and a sucker for populist tripe and liberal economic nannyism.
Jaibones on January 3, 2008 at 3:37 PM
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