Poll: “Late-breaking surge” for Fred in Iowa?
posted at 4:50 pm on January 2, 2008 by Allahpundit
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After days of goofing on the Fredheads I can’t deny them a moment of joy. Follow Robinson’s link to the poll results. The good news: 6% are still undecided, Hunter’s 1% is likely to go to Fred if they decide they don’t want to throw their votes away, and any late hemorrhaging Huck does probably won’t benefit Mitt given the nastiness of late, putting them in play for a late Thompson break too. If everything but everything goes well, a strong-ish third isn’t out of the question. The bad news: He’s still only polling at 12% and is tied with McCain, who has the advantage of receiving a ton of good press lately. Annnnnnd … it’s a Zogby poll. Dude. Dude.
I know you’re itching to predict, so go ahead. What percentage does Fred finish with tomorrow night?
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Fred is at his best when he shoots his mouth off on the issues. It’s what people want. They want him to Punch the Hippies.
Anytime he’s not doing that he’s dead in the water and looks exactly like what his opponents want him to look like – lazy and disinterested.
thareb on January 2, 2008 at 4:54 PM
Zogby that predicted a Bush losing by 50 electoral votes to Kerry?
I hope it’s right, but…not betting.
amerpundit on January 2, 2008 at 4:55 PM
My God AP, can’t you just lay off Fred for…oh, nevermind.
Bill C on January 2, 2008 at 4:55 PM
could it be? could it be?
zane on January 2, 2008 at 4:56 PM
Second place. By a nose.
a capella on January 2, 2008 at 4:57 PM
2% in one day, within the margin of error, is a late-breaking surge?
Vizzini on January 2, 2008 at 4:58 PM
SECOND LOOK AT LATE-BREAKING SURGE FOR FRED!
Allahpundit on January 2, 2008 at 4:58 PM
Fred has also doubled his numbers in New Hampshire. :)
Complete7 on January 2, 2008 at 4:58 PM
AP, might as well move this to the left – 500 comments, at a minimum, around 10-15 from csdeven, the Kennedy kid, and about 5 on average from each Fredhead.
Kuebler-Ross book sales surging, for different stages.
The sun still rose in the East in San Diego today. I think it will set in the West, again.
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 4:58 PM
Up 2% from the day before that, too.
Dude, give the Fredheads a break. They’re suffering. Can’t you see they’re suffering?
Allahpundit on January 2, 2008 at 5:00 PM
I keep telling you guys that illegal immigration is a major issue in Iowa.
a capella on January 2, 2008 at 5:01 PM
Make it worth something to the winner. Maybe a HA guest post.
15%
pedestrian on January 2, 2008 at 5:01 PM
Color me old-fashioned or something, but what exactly does “goofing” mean?
A. Teasing?
B. Jerking their chain?
C. Needling?
D. Insulting?
E. Aggravating?
F. All of the above?
I’m just asking because I want to see where on the serious meter you really are.
Tennman on January 2, 2008 at 5:01 PM
maybe it’s the leather jacket.
JiangxiDad on January 2, 2008 at 5:01 PM
…comes a man?
CP on January 2, 2008 at 5:01 PM
Amen, brothah! AP, you’re going to be eating some crow when, after at least the South Carolina (where, I predict, Fred will come in first) primary the Thompson Train will soon be pulling up to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue!
JetBoy on January 2, 2008 at 5:03 PM
Forgot – AP, you’re the best blogmaster. You might need a bigger flat, as the smirks might not fit in the unit any more. Your mob appeal could move mountains or crash/raise spirits, alas, you rejoice in the latter. Not holding it against you, just noting. Never change, dude, because it works,
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 5:04 PM
Keep stokin’ the fire Karen!
MT on January 2, 2008 at 5:06 PM
I only mention it because sometimes there’s a man… I won’t say a hero, ’cause, what’s a hero? Sometimes, there’s a man. And I’m talkin’ about the Dude here – the Dude from Los Angeles. Sometimes, there’s a man, well, he’s the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that’s the Dude. The Dude, from Los Angeles. And even if he’s a lazy man – and the Dude was most certainly that. Quite possibly the laziest in all of Los Angeles County, which would place him high in the runnin’ for laziest worldwide. Sometimes there’s a man, sometimes, there’s a man.
World B. Free on January 2, 2008 at 5:07 PM
Ha, well in that case… late-breaking Ron Paul surge! And a mini-surge for Romney!
Vizzini on January 2, 2008 at 5:08 PM
Fify, Tennman, with indulgence,
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 5:08 PM
Me? A Fredhead-ette…suffering? Never.
BTW, I rescend my week old congrats to you on your IP!
A pox on you I say! A pox!
; )
SouthernPride on January 2, 2008 at 5:08 PM
As if that were a bad thing…
tommylotto on January 2, 2008 at 5:09 PM
.2%
In the greatest disinformation op against pollsters of all time, Ron Paul gets 96.7% of all votes, Democrat and Republican…
elgeneralisimo on January 2, 2008 at 5:10 PM
tommylotto, I say this with the utmost sincerity – you chose the absolutely perfect profession. Congratulations!
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 5:11 PM
I’ll guess a soft third place finish for Fred. A convincing third place would be nice, but second is too much to hope for.
Call me Eeyore.
flipflop on January 2, 2008 at 5:12 PM
goof·ing
All of the above.
But I thought AP was just fishing.
geckomon on January 2, 2008 at 5:12 PM
Ah yes, Fred waiting in the weeds.
csdeven on January 2, 2008 at 5:12 PM
I hope Fred pulls it off.
msipes on January 2, 2008 at 5:13 PM
Just more proof the media is completely out-of-touch as usual.
Griz on January 2, 2008 at 5:14 PM
I’ll never forget Election Night 2004.
Susan Estrich (you know….THE VOICE!), stated to Brit Hume on Fox News, somewhat angrily:
“If the exit polls are correct, John Kerry is our next President!”
Well, so much for them there polls, huh Susy-Q?
SouthernPride on January 2, 2008 at 5:14 PM
Actually, Ms. E., I wasn’t really trying to be snarky, if it came off that way.
I just wondered what the term “goofing on someone” means.
Tennman on January 2, 2008 at 5:14 PM
Fred is a weed, a big one, around 6 feet, 6 inches…but a lazy, old, with a fireless belly one…
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 5:16 PM
I gotta hand it to you, AP.
You sure know how to get the fullest measure of enjoyment out of all of this. :-)
Hawkins1701 on January 2, 2008 at 5:17 PM
By the way AP, where the he11 is our “Expert predicts sex with robots…” post? Get busy. ;)
Griz on January 2, 2008 at 5:17 PM
BTW…anybody know what time the caucusing finishes tomorrow night? Just wondering how late I’m gonna have to stay up and how much beer I’m gonna have to get to drown my sorrows.
flipflop on January 2, 2008 at 5:18 PM
It means being able to say, God forbid Fred makes it somehow, “I was just goofing around, trying to attract the Fredettes”, or something like that.
On a more serious note, AP’s a wit, a good/objective analyst, and one who takes his job very seriously. Those who’re wedded to their candidates can’t accept that.
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 5:20 PM
Means teasing. Usually with an affectionate connotation.
Spirit of 1776 on January 2, 2008 at 5:20 PM
Not until the last of the lime jello mold is gone.
JiangxiDad on January 2, 2008 at 5:21 PM
I do sense a certain level of discomfort from some of the partisans with this information. Maybe it’s an act, but there is nothing worse than having a nightmare slowly come true and have that momentum bankshot off NH directly to SC. Must be a lot like drving down a Colorado highway , looking up and seeing a wall of snow bearing down.
a capella on January 2, 2008 at 5:22 PM
Damn…I hate moldy jello.
flipflop on January 2, 2008 at 5:22 PM
It’s already the fourth-oldest news story up.
peski on January 2, 2008 at 5:24 PM
I suspect you’re being overly optimistic, but I would certainly enjoy the schadenfreude moment if you’re right.
flipflop on January 2, 2008 at 5:24 PM
SP, thanks for reminding me of one my political-lives’ highlights – and what a disappointment he’s been since then. Alas, the #1 good thing still remains – he’s not John Kerry, and Mrs. Bush is not Mrs. Kerry, not that the latter should be significant. It’s just so classy to have this First Lady (also somewhat of a disappointment in term #2).
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 5:26 PM
Maybe part of my optimism is that I am a Fredhead, but that is looking a lot like the 1992 Democratic Senate primary in Wisconsin. In any case, we’re 26 1/2 (give or take a few minutes) out from decision time, and a bit longer than that from finding out which set of pundits are right (if any).
steveegg on January 2, 2008 at 5:28 PM
Wow Ms.E. I’m surprised that got through awaiting moderation.
JiangxiDad on January 2, 2008 at 5:29 PM
Spirit, I can’t say I’ve felt the love.
Ms. E., pretty much how I envisioned it.
I think in my vernacular, I would have said, “played them like a fiddle.” Zane Grey may have penned, “‘Stop!’ he ejaculated.’”
Never could get completely through a Zane Grey book.
Tennman on January 2, 2008 at 5:29 PM
I would think….oh, abt. 95% of those on the board already recognize AP for the great work he does, Fredheads or not.
As far as being wedded to a candidate? Well, I don’t think Mrs. Fred, Mrs. Mitt, Mr. Bill, etc. are on this board. Could be wrong, but doubt it.
SouthernPride on January 2, 2008 at 5:31 PM
Here’s hoping THE FRED proves them all wrong and pulls out a victory.
ulyses on January 2, 2008 at 5:34 PM
Fredulation!
infidel on January 2, 2008 at 5:35 PM
Crow is plucked, singed, rubbed with poultry seasoning, and ready for my grill, but I will be mildly surprised if Huck doesn’t get a big lump of coal in his stocking tomorrow. Just hope Fred is the beneficiary, and I’m not even a Fredhead. Just afflicted with HDS.
a capella on January 2, 2008 at 5:35 PM
I understand. I’m not arguing motive, merely commenting on the vernacular.
Spirit of 1776 on January 2, 2008 at 5:38 PM
So more hospitals are struggling financially just to remain open , even in Iowa.
In my area, 2 hospitals have closed recently simply because of the negative financial implications of illegal immigration.
ColtsFan on January 2, 2008 at 5:38 PM
From your mouth to Shiva’s ear. Payback’s a bitc*.
JiangxiDad on January 2, 2008 at 5:38 PM
Video still doing well. Fredheads need to visit it today and share it with others
Honors for This Video:
#7 – Most Discussed (This Week)
#2 – Most Discussed (This Week) – News & Politics
#73 – Most Discussed (This Month)
#8 – Most Discussed (This Month) – News & Politics
#18 – Most Responded (Today)
#43 – Most Responded (This Week)
#77 – Most Viewed (This Week)
#12 – Most Viewed (This Week) – News & Politics
#68 – Most Viewed (This Month) – News & Politics
#72 – Top Favorites (This Week)
#3 – Top Favorites (This Week) – News & Politics
#42 – Top Favorites (This Month) – News & Politics
#51 – Top Rated (This Week) – News & Politics
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VblJq4j0_SE
bnelson44 on January 2, 2008 at 5:39 PM
JiangxiDad on January 2, 2008 at 5:29 PM
That moderation thang is really weird and inconsistent. Ignore it.
SouthernPride on January 2, 2008 at 5:31 PM
If /this or /that are needed, the irony, snark, abstract is ineffective, either from the writer, or the reader’s standpoint.
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 5:39 PM
Should have also added “the joke, tease, sarcasm” are ineffective.
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 5:40 PM
I think he’s going to edge out McCain by a few percentage points — maybe 15% – 12%, and then he’s solid — especially if he beats Rudi. I just can’t believe that Republicans are so stupid that they’d make the utterly unelectable and Clintonesque Huck their candidate; Deputy Dawg will go down. Rudi is already sinking fast. Eventually, I predict, it’ll be a race between Mitt and Fred!, and while I like Fred better, I can support either one.
Iowa is being downplayed already in the MSM, since Hillary! is predicted to finish 2nd or even third. If she loses, the hypocrisy of treating Republican results as gold and Democratic results as meaningless fluctuations in a strange state would be too much even for them.
Of course, predicting the MSM capacity for hypocrisy is a dangerous game ….
Aardvark on January 2, 2008 at 5:41 PM
Just one other taker on this that I noticed. I’m going to say that the polls have it right. I say Thompson with 12% finishing third or fourth. I’d like to see a second place finish behind Flip Romney but I don’t think that’s in the cards. This is the end of the beginning and now is the time for the real fight.
Iowa doesn’t even count for delegates at this point. They’re just picking people who’ll pick the people who’ll vote at the convention. Strange stuff indeed.
Mojave Mark on January 2, 2008 at 5:42 PM
I’ll predict Fred lower than 10%, Huck wins Iowa and Mitt is surprisingly lower than he is polling. McCain comes in at third with about the same percentage he is polling at now.
csdeven on January 2, 2008 at 5:44 PM
Two things, that “played them like a fiddle” gives you away as a…wait… Tennesseean :)
Then you interject Zane Grey – too deep for a…wait…Southerner…you confuse the Northeasterners…
Just goofing on ya :)
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 5:45 PM
Yep. Can you imagine the infighting that will be going on?
a capella on January 2, 2008 at 5:48 PM
Agreed, I hope the Iowa folk are paying attention to Mike “Elmer Gantry” Huksterbee and what’s come out of his mouth lately. But I’m not holdin’ my breath.
iurockhead on January 2, 2008 at 5:50 PM
Yeah, I know. Why does anyone still bother with Zogby? Anyone can do better with a wet finger in the air on a calm day and they won’t charge as much.
Dusty on January 2, 2008 at 5:51 PM
Entelechy:
I was just “goofing” on you, as that is the thread topic.
You used what I thought was a “non-conventional” contraction, “who’re”, which means something else without the apostrophe– thus my “joke” about “moderation.” However, it seems “who’re” is in fact English, but perhaps not standard “New Yorkese”.
Years ago I lived in France for a few years and struggled with the embarrassment of daily gaffes. (Une bouteille du jus du pomme de terre s’il vous plait.) A beautiful French woman taught me many things, but she often told me my irregular speech was “charming.” I find your very occasional English errors equally charming.
JiangxiDad on January 2, 2008 at 5:52 PM
The South may have lost the civil war, but it’s pretty obvious that we retained the civil mind and the civil tongue. ;-)
Tennman on January 2, 2008 at 5:52 PM
Frederation + Fredmentum = Fredalanche!©
TheSitRep on January 2, 2008 at 5:55 PM
17%
He is campaigning the way he did in Tennessee and will come back from 20 down and win by 20!!!!!!!!!!!!
Least that is what he said.
tomas on January 2, 2008 at 5:58 PM
I was being snarky as I enjoy being snarkastic at times. Most posters, even AP, enjoy a snark moment every now and then. If it is deemed “ineffective” by you, perhaps you are on the wrong board?
I didn’t start out to be rude, Lord forbid that’s against my Southern upbringing, but you did seem to be offended. For that, I apologize. But…the “married to a candidate” comment did provide for some good fodder. Agreed?
SouthernPride on January 2, 2008 at 6:03 PM
I like Fred, but dang if I always find the “waiting in the weeds” jab funny as hell. I can’t help picturing it with him growling something about Russian plans.
Cuffy Meigs on January 2, 2008 at 6:07 PM
SouthernPride, dearest, there is a huge misunderstanding – not in the slightest was I offended, nor is your apology needed for anything here. Nor did I mean to offend, for which, if I did in the slightest, I apologize, sincerely. There are real ’subjects’ I enjoy needling here (they deserve that status, as they ask for it, blatantly) – you’re definitely not one of them. Like/respect you a lot,
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 6:13 PM
Killed me laughing. Potato juice, the thought of it :) I love the term pomme de terre as it is so real. If only you knew what a vast collection of such goofy expressions I have, from many to many languages. Life is so much fun as a polyglot.
To your last statement, if you knew how often Americans have goofed on me when I first learned English – I can’t post here what all they did to me – that would really not make it through moderation.
Btw – what is your ancestral background? Share only if you care to. I like you too :) for many reasons, brain first and foremost,
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 6:17 PM
Romney 24%
Huck 17%
Fred 16%
and yes, I’m with Fred!
RobertCSampson on January 2, 2008 at 6:19 PM
Ditto, Entel darlin’~
SouthernPride on January 2, 2008 at 6:19 PM
I spend much time, professionally, in the South. It is a different world, and indeed a nicer one. Without coming across as “flattering myself”, Southerners treat me very well, and like having me around. In any event they keep asking for return visists. Can’t share more. Not goofing on ya this time :)
p.s. I love the vegetable dishes in the South. Must watch the rest when there, though. Love that fried okra, though.
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 6:23 PM
What We Want in a President
Wall Street Journal
Or consider the comments of a friend of mine and active fund-raiser about Fred Thompson, who is my choice. My friend agreed that Mr. Thompson was smart and well informed and had good judgment. But he felt that Republicans should definitely not nominate him because he was temperamentally unsuited to the campaign trail. Mr. Thompson probably would rather discuss the nuances of issues than shake hands or write thank-you notes to donors, two skills very important to the running. Polls now suggest my friend may be right. If so, all it means is that the process of selecting a president has little to do with the skills needed for the job.
bnelson44 on January 2, 2008 at 6:24 PM
And JiangxiDad, I missed the who’re thing until you pointed it out, though political whores is one of my favorite expressions, even if it includes us.
“Parliament of Whores” – great book.
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 6:26 PM
Over/under of 10% for Paul, Fred, and McCain in Iowa.
Mark Jaquith on January 2, 2008 at 6:28 PM
Austrian on one side, the melancholic one.
The other, more convoluted. Spain to Greece to Turkey to Russia.
My two beloved young daughters were born and adopted in China–ergo, the s/n.
JiangxiDad on January 2, 2008 at 6:30 PM
You aren’t in control of it.
Montana on January 2, 2008 at 6:30 PM
Fred gets 16% tops – more probably 13%.
The question is does he go on with 16% and 3rd? Yep. 13% and 4th? Nope. If he finishes fourth, he’s out.
rick moran on January 2, 2008 at 6:33 PM
BE STILL MY TWITCHING WEINER!!!
..and I’m spent…
Ochlan on January 2, 2008 at 6:35 PM
Heh, JianxiDad, we have lots in common. Watched the Vienna New Year’s Concert last night (on Jan. 01, 2001 I was privileged to be in the audience, with Seiji Ozawa – he is simply the best), and Georges Prêtre did a good job. I never miss it.
The daughters are two lucky girls :)
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 6:37 PM
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 6:40 PM
I’m gonna go crazy here and say:
18%
ballz2wallz on January 2, 2008 at 6:42 PM
LOL ;-)
Never have been, never will…and that’s the way I like it…plausible deniability!
Ochlan on January 2, 2008 at 6:46 PM
Fred! gets 19% in Iowa
Mitt gets 27%
Huck gets 17%
McCain gets 13%
Rudi and Ron Paul fight for the table scraps.
omnipotent on January 2, 2008 at 7:06 PM
The only opinion that matters……..mine..
Fred 33%
Mitt 30%
McCain 15%
Huck 15%
Rudy 3%
Paul 1%
the rest vote for Nixon.
Limerick on January 2, 2008 at 7:12 PM
If Fred finishes in a strong third or better, I want the humping robot.
matd on January 2, 2008 at 7:13 PM
Real close to what I was thinking.
Mitt gets 24%
Fred! gets 22%
Huck gets 16%
McCain gets 14%
Rudi and Ron Paul fight for the table scraps.
24 hours plus or minus from now and we will know for sure.
P. James Moriarty on January 2, 2008 at 7:16 PM
None of you ever are – thus, no deniability, plausible or not, is needed :)
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 7:22 PM
…plausible likeability and nice dreaming…you’re such a good pill around here.
Entelechy on January 2, 2008 at 7:25 PM
You’re so understanding…you feel our pain…our plight…our curse…we _want_ to be good, but _it_ makes me do things…bad things…
We’re the victims…show your support for “male libido victim month” by wearing our groups pearl necklace…$2
Ochlan on January 2, 2008 at 7:27 PM
It’s simple, people will have to “want it” and put the right man in the Oval office. The “fire in the belly” is up to the people who want to get their man into office for the sake of this nation’s security and economic freedom. Simply saying “I’ll support whoever gets nominated” is avoiding the whole thing and I see it as being a bit disengenious, and is probably playing a dangerous game with the audience (supposing Ron Paul gets the nod). Either you agree overall with the man or you don’t, and you fully back him on principles alone rather than rely on “fire in the belly” meme. Which in this case with Fred it’s a bit ludicruous to even think that. Like Mark Levin said this afternoon after his interview with Fred on the radio, it’s not that he’s officially endorsing Fred but “enlightening” his listeners instead about his qualities and best candidate to have even according to David Limbaugh.
Riiiight.
So, I guess Allah and Michelle would want to make sure and cover all bets rather than to risk endorsing or supporting fully certain candidates. Shan’t want to scare off potential HA/MM readers and get them mad, eh?
Just doing Allah’s and MM’s famous patented snark moment here.
Supporting Fred first with Rommney close behind.
Kokonut on January 2, 2008 at 7:34 PM
SouthernPride, dearest, there is a huge misunderstanding – not in the slightest was I offended, nor is your apology needed for anything here. Nor did I mean to offend, for which, if I did in the slightest, I apologize, sincerely. There are real ’subjects’ I enjoy needling here (they deserve that status, as they ask for it, blatantly) – you’re definitely not one of them. Like/respect you a lot,
What a shocker! Someone besides me doesn’t have a clue what Ms. E’s is getting at! Maybe because her writing Blatheresque?
Entelechy,
I left you a response to your latest, err, salvo over here. I’ll be happy to define the word “personal” for you if you get stuck.
Buy Danish on January 2, 2008 at 7:42 PM
Make that – maybe because her writing [is] Blatheresque.
Buy Danish on January 2, 2008 at 7:45 PM
I believe I was first to report this in another thread last night. *ahem*
Fred comes in 3rd with 18%
(Romney 26%, Huckster 24%, McAmnesty 15%, Paul 14%, Gules 3%)
SouthernGent on January 2, 2008 at 7:45 PM
I have a cousin who speaks 6 languages, but he’s still not a cunning linguist.
/plays for the other team
sibobr on January 2, 2008 at 7:49 PM
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