No, probably not. He has been picking up points in each weekly SV poll so far this month, from 11 in the first week of December to 13 last week to 16 now. If that trend continues, a closer-than-expected third-place finish would probably give him enough momentum to avert the McCain doomsday scenario Buchanan has in mind. Most other recent Iowa polls taken over the same period as SV’s show him lingering around 10 percent, though; ARG actually has him as low as five percent, good for fifth place and only a point ahead of the Paulnut. (Then again, ARG has a habit of lowballing him.)
Exit question: Fredmentum?
Update: Like I say, I’m reluctant to put too much stock in ARG but for what it’s worth they’ve got Maverick all even with Mitt at 26 in New Hampshire in the new one. Gallup has it, more realistically, as Mitt 34, McCain 27.