Strategic Vision poll: Late surge for Fred in Iowa? Update: McCain closing in New Hampshire, possibly tied?

posted at 10:07 am on December 21, 2007 by Allahpundit

HE’S COMING BACK!

No, probably not. He has been picking up points in each weekly SV poll so far this month, from 11 in the first week of December to 13 last week to 16 now. If that trend continues, a closer-than-expected third-place finish would probably give him enough momentum to avert the McCain doomsday scenario Buchanan has in mind. Most other recent Iowa polls taken over the same period as SV’s show him lingering around 10 percent, though; ARG actually has him as low as five percent, good for fifth place and only a point ahead of the Paulnut. (Then again, ARG has a habit of lowballing him.)

Exit question: Fredmentum?

Update: Like I say, I’m reluctant to put too much stock in ARG but for what it’s worth they’ve got Maverick all even with Mitt at 26 in New Hampshire in the new one. Gallup has it, more realistically, as Mitt 34, McCain 27.


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I told ya!

TheSitRep on December 21, 2007 at 10:08 AM

A nice thought, but I’ve long since stopped paying attention to polls. Eventually, if you take Rasmussen, Zogby, RCP, and every other poll you can get, take the average of each, compare it to a regression analysis of each, and then take both of every poll for the last 6 months, you discover that the truth is: We should have elected Alf back in ’88.

MadisonConservative on December 21, 2007 at 10:09 AM

Exit Answer: Yes.

With Aw-Shucksabee liberalling his way around blessing every one, McCain on the ups, Rudy hurling in the ER, and Mitt combing his hair, there’s an opening you could drive a tank through. Hope Fred! can drive.

HerrMorgenholz on December 21, 2007 at 10:10 AM

This is only good news if it’s on the basis that Fred is taking from Huckamania and not Mitt. Otherwise we’ve got two conservatives (spare me the anti-Mitt tirade) cancelling each other out as Huck wins Iowa.

BKennedy on December 21, 2007 at 10:12 AM

I don’t think Fred has the ability to take the Christian Conservatives from Huck. He won’t play his religion.

MadisonConservative on December 21, 2007 at 10:13 AM

If that trend continues, a closer-than-expected third-place finish would probably give him enough momentum

He said that 3rd was an okay answer. Though he was hoping for better.

Spirit of 1776 on December 21, 2007 at 10:13 AM

I can only hope he ends up showing well in Iowa. He needs to stick arouhnd for a while and he needs cash!

Darksean on December 21, 2007 at 10:14 AM

If you Love America and know Fred, supporting him is a no brainer.

Supporting any other rep candidate will insure a Dem win in 08.

Those are just the facts.

TheSitRep on December 21, 2007 at 10:15 AM

I like Fred, and I hope he makes a huge late rush and pushes the Huckster back to third…or fourth.

Jaibones on December 21, 2007 at 10:17 AM

Given how winnable this nomination is, part of me thinks Fred will look back when this is over and consider it a real missed opportunity. But given the way he’s run his campaign, the other part of me thinks he’ll look back at this and say, “Eh, I never really wanted it anyway.”

I respect his views and he’s my candidate of choice, but it’s getting a little more difficult each day to support someone who looks like they’re running for President on a lark. Say what you want about Hill and the Messiah, but at least they look like they want it.

World B. Free on December 21, 2007 at 10:17 AM

Will the best Conservative hang in there until the wannabe’s fade away???

I certainly hope so!

Go Fred, Go!!!

HarryStar on December 21, 2007 at 10:17 AM

Oh. I thought there might be something substantial here. Just another poll – one of approximately the ten gazillion that have been done in Iowa the past month, none of which has been necessarily accurate and worthwhile.

I do hate all this poll watching. It stinks of poking around in sparrow entrails or trying to figure out what the shapes of the clouds mean. Fact is, in primaries like this,no one’s going to have the faintet idea how it’ll turn out until the vote counts start rolling in. Everything else is just busy work, selling newspapers, driving ratings, or site views.

Jimmie on December 21, 2007 at 10:19 AM

Supporting any other rep candidate will insure a Dem win in 08.

Those are just the facts.

TheSitRep on December 21, 2007 at 10:15 AM

I agree 100%. The Dems have nobody that doesn’t absolutely scare me. And GOP ticket has a nearly full board of posers. Mitt is a shmuck. Huck holds hands with Chuck Norris. Only Duncan Hunter and Fred Thompson look like prez material, in my opinion and damn the humility.

thejackal on December 21, 2007 at 10:21 AM

I know some denizens were going to be seeing him in person in the foreseeable present. Have there been any field reports of those?

Darksean on December 21, 2007 at 10:23 AM

TheSitRep: We couldn’t disagree more about religion but we couldn’t agree more about candidates. I’ve been a Fred-head since the beginning. Viva el Fred!

RiverCocytus on December 21, 2007 at 10:26 AM

Go Fred.

I hope he wins. That would be such a repudiation of RINOs ala Bush and the MSM.

Zach on December 21, 2007 at 10:26 AM

I don’t think Fred has the ability to take the Christian Conservatives from Huck. He won’t play his religion.

MadisonConservative on December 21, 2007 at 10:13 AM

That maybe true. From what I understand Fred was brought up in the Church of Christ [not to be confused w/ the united church of christ]

Fred would think using his church for person promotion an abomination.

TheSitRep on December 21, 2007 at 10:28 AM

Fred would think using his church for person promotion an abomination.

TheSitRep on December 21, 2007 at 10:28 AM

Shame certain other candidates don’t think that way.

MadisonConservative on December 21, 2007 at 10:31 AM

Exit question: Fredmentum?

I’ll believe it when I see a few more data points confirming the trend.

thirteen28 on December 21, 2007 at 10:32 AM

Otherwise we’ve got two conservatives (spare me the anti-Mitt tirade) cancelling each other out as Huck wins Iowa.

BKennedy on December 21, 2007 at 10:12 AM

I don’t understand- are you saying that Hunter is going to go from dead last to battling it out with Fred? After all, they’re the only two conservatives left in the race.

Hollowpoint on December 21, 2007 at 10:33 AM

Historically, no one has gotten Iowa right through polling. Just sayin.

Tennman on December 21, 2007 at 10:33 AM

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/jpodhoretz/1640

a capella on December 21, 2007 at 10:24 AM

You beat me to it. The polls are really unreliable, especially right now.

Having said that, I hope Fred does well in Iowa (strong third, or god willing second ahead of Huckster) so he doesn’t have to drop out and endorse McCain. That way, Mitt can beat McCain in NH more easily, and we can drop the amnesty proponent there. Fred could then try to make a stand in SC and decide the issue between him, Mitt, and Huck once and for all.

Meanwhile, Rudy prays for a February miracle.

Nessuno on December 21, 2007 at 10:35 AM

I’m in South Carolina and I am planning on voting for whoever has the best chance of beating Huckabee. At the moment, that’s Mitt, but Fred is close behind him. I wouldn’t have a problem voting for either of them, its just a question of who.

BohicaTwentyTwo on December 21, 2007 at 10:36 AM

There’s a lot to be said for slow and steady wins the race. While the polls are sliding up and down daily & weekly and the “leading” candidates scramble to pander and put out fires, Ol’ Fred quietly emerges as a sane choice. The religious contingent won’t have a problem with him, he’s not objectionable at all. As the smoke clears, don’t be surprised to see America really wants a steady, tough, deliberate candidate with common sense and short answers who carries no baggage. Plus he tweaks the media every chance he gets! That’s a bonus!!!

Tim Zank on December 21, 2007 at 10:40 AM

Exit Answer: yes but not because of or indicated by the poll, the Fredmentum has been building ever since the “Hands Down” Debate and the Iowa bus tour started.

Exit Question Number 2: Why Fox News is getting such a pass for ignoring Sen. Thompson?

spacemonkey on December 21, 2007 at 10:43 AM

As long as Fred can make the top 3 in IA…there’s hope.

NickTx on December 21, 2007 at 10:46 AM

For the record, here’s a typical Huck comment where he is using his religion to shield him from policy criticisms.

“There’s a sense in which all these years the evangelicals have been treated very kindly by the Republican party. They wanted us to be a part of it, and then one day, one of us actually runs and they say, ‘Oh, my gosh! Now they’re serious.’”

From NRO

Nessuno on December 21, 2007 at 10:47 AM

If you Love America and know Fred, supporting him is a no brainer.

Supporting any other rep candidate will insure a Dem win in 08.

Those are just the facts.

TheSitRep on December 21, 2007 at 10:15 AM

Those ARE the facts. WELL SAID.

Ex-tex on December 21, 2007 at 10:49 AM

Nessuno on December 21, 2007 at 10:47 AM

Huck is right. The Republican establishment is in a panic about Huck because he isn’t one of them. More here.

bnelson44 on December 21, 2007 at 10:51 AM

Exit Question Number 2: Why Fox News is getting such a pass for ignoring Sen. Thompson?

Because the powers that be on the LEFT and RIGHT don’t want a POTUS that they can’t control.

Ex-tex on December 21, 2007 at 10:51 AM

BohicaTwentyTwo on December 21, 2007 at 10:36 AM

I’m also in SC and I’m voting for Fred in the primary. I like Mitt and would hapily vote for him in the general, but Fred really gets the state’s rights issue which is extremely important. If their is one issue the other candidates just don’t understand, that is it.

SC doesn’t want NY, CA or MA policies. We are just fine doing things the way we want them done.

sunny on December 21, 2007 at 10:52 AM

Fred is a scum bag lobbyist who 99% of the time got involved in anti-conservative and anti-American lobbying, AND he is a dirt bag lawyer that gives legal advice to terrorists.
That POS will destroy this country if he gets the nomination because a dem dog catcher would win against him.

FRED SUCKS.

csdeven on December 21, 2007 at 10:56 AM

A comment from the Des Moines Register ref Iowa polls;

“As far as I’m concerned, they change quicker than the weather in Iowa,” -voter

Keeping hope alive. Tim Zank(above) seems to have hit it on the head about slow and steady. Reading through the papers up in Iowa this morning Fred keeps on talking and people keep listening and coming away pleased with what they heard.

Limerick on December 21, 2007 at 10:56 AM

A states-rights approach to health care could deflect the main egregore here, that is, the monster of HillaryCare, while winning the hearts of liberal folks. (You can’t win their minds, they aren’t operating.)

RiverCocytus on December 21, 2007 at 10:57 AM

csdeven on December 21, 2007 at 10:56 AM

Amazing. Two posts in and it’s like he hardly left.

MadisonConservative on December 21, 2007 at 10:58 AM

csdeven on December 21, 2007 at 10:56 AM

Welcome to our OOL! Notice there is was no “P” in it.

Yay. Csdeven’s back. I’m so excited.

aero on December 21, 2007 at 10:59 AM

Fred is a scum bag lobbyist who 99% of the time got involved in anti-conservative and anti-American lobbying, AND he is a dirt bag lawyer that gives legal advice to terrorists.

That POS will destroy this country if he gets the nomination because a dem dog catcher would win against him.

I’m getting tired of this, really. You’ve made your point. Don’t start repeating crap in the Fred threads.

Allahpundit on December 21, 2007 at 11:02 AM

I’m getting tired of this, really. You’ve made your point. Don’t start repeating crap in the Fred threads.

Allahpundit on December 21, 2007 at 11:02 AM

So, the other thousand times for weeks on end was okay then?

Better late than never.

He won’t stop. I hope you will make him. We can actually have conversations without him (and his clones) around.

Darksean on December 21, 2007 at 11:05 AM

You can’t win their minds, they aren’t operating.

RiverCocytus on December 21, 2007 at 10:57 AM

You got that right. Group think has taken over and anything that can dent their world view will be ignored.

csdeven on December 21, 2007 at 10:56 AM

So are you here now? Can I go back to Ace’s and read the comments (when they work) without reading constant outbursts of why Fred Sucks. We need to work out a schedule. //

Hey how’s the kid doing? Is he away and on duty for the holidays?

sunny on December 21, 2007 at 11:06 AM

Darksean on December 21, 2007 at 11:05 AM

Let it go. FDSDeven will bury himself.

MadisonConservative on December 21, 2007 at 11:06 AM

If only 5% of the republicans show up to the Iowa Caucasus as it has historically been, what would stop Ron Paul from winning Iowa? That is the campaign with the most dedicated following.

bnelson44 on December 21, 2007 at 11:09 AM

BKennedy on December 21, 2007 at 10:12 AM

It would be disastrous if Fred and Mitt took each other out, but I’d still quibble with your characterization of Mitt as a conservative. Romneycare, giant-ass farm subsidies and gun bans aren’t conservative.

Bad Candy on December 21, 2007 at 11:10 AM

If only 5% of the republicans show up to the Iowa Caucasus as it has historically been, what would stop Ron Paul from winning Iowa? That is the campaign with the most dedicated following.

bnelson44 on December 21, 2007 at 11:09 AM

ha ha yeah, and all the Ronulans would fire up big fatties.

TheSitRep on December 21, 2007 at 11:11 AM

I’m getting tired of this, really. You’ve made your point. Don’t start repeating crap in the Fred threads.

Allahpundit on December 21, 2007 at 11:02 AM

Thank you.

Thoughtful criticism is one thing. Raging idiocy is another.

thirteen28 on December 21, 2007 at 11:14 AM

In defense of csdeven he is generally right on many issues [my opinion]
except his view on R.P. vis-à-vis F.D.T..

This has led me to form a theory that there are two separate individuals logging on as “csdeven”

TheSitRep on December 21, 2007 at 11:17 AM

State chairman for Tancredos campaign endorses Fred! Interesting division between Tanc and his campaign staff.

P. James Moriarty on December 21, 2007 at 11:47 AM

Keep pluggin’ away Fred!

You’re making headway in Iowa and you have lots of love here at HotAir. (Raging idiots excluded, of course)

Now let’s get this Huckster out of the race, shall we?

omnipotent on December 21, 2007 at 11:48 AM

P. James Moriarty on December 21, 2007 at 11:47 AM

That’s 2 important Iowa conservative endorsements in 2 weeks, kick ass.

omnipotent on December 21, 2007 at 11:49 AM

A comment from the Des Moines Register ref Iowa polls;

“As far as I’m concerned, they change quicker than the weather in Iowa,” -voter

Keeping hope alive. Tim Zank(above) seems to have hit it on the head about slow and steady. Reading through the papers up in Iowa this morning Fred keeps on talking and people keep listening and coming away pleased with what they heard.

Limerick on December 21, 2007 at 10:56 AM

Yep, In spite of the tooth gnashing and quantities of excess gastric juice being released with each days quicksand shift, here is what’s going to happen.
Mitt or Huck take the brass ring but by a very small margin. Fred takes third in worst case scenario, or second if the gods are smiling. Fred isn’t going to be knocked out in Iowa, and hopefully his momentum will spread to SC. I don’t think he’ll do well in NH, but that’s O.K.
Way too much unecessary angst amongst us all right now.

a capella on December 21, 2007 at 11:53 AM

GO FRED GO!

msipes on December 21, 2007 at 12:41 PM

Say what you want about Hill and the Messiah, but at least they look like they want it.

I consider this one of Fred’s strong points. Why would I want to elect someone so obsessed with power? It might be better to elect an Egg McMuffin than someone whose life’s dream is being president.

viking999 on December 21, 2007 at 12:47 PM

Getting to 16% is significant. Under the caucus process, candidates have to get more than 15% of the precinct, or their supporters are free to go to other candidates. Fred has been a big second choice among Republican voters, so if he can get past the initial 15%, then he could get defectors from the supporters of other candidates who don’t get that much. Perhaps some McCain or Giuliani national security types.

Now he just needs a good Christmas ad.

Dudley Smith on December 21, 2007 at 1:06 PM

McCain has become a notional figure by betraying conservatives AND Republicans. I will not forgive him. My goal is to prevent him from gaining the White House, or someone else who will do basically the same thing (eg. Huck, maybe Rudy or Mitt).

edgehead on December 21, 2007 at 1:06 PM

And FYI, Geraghty is saying that Rush is ripping Huck right now

Dudley Smith on December 21, 2007 at 1:06 PM

Dudley Smith

I heard Rush: it was funny, brutal, and spot-on. Why would a Republican candidate antagonize Rush?

Go Fred

arkansasmike on December 21, 2007 at 1:34 PM

If only 5% of the republicans show up to the Iowa Caucasus as it has historically been, what would stop Ron Paul from winning Iowa? That is the campaign with the most dedicated following.

Also note that Iowans can register as Republicans at the caucus. I’ll be surprised if Paul doesn’t get double digits.

Mark Jaquith on December 21, 2007 at 1:35 PM

For those of you that support Fred and do not yet get e-mail from his campaign, please consider helping Fred in a materialistic way, if you know what I mean, in the next 7 days. He’s running out of money to run ads in Iowa, and Mitt and Huck are just plastering the media right now.

Fred will stick it out as long as he has the support from the people.

AZCON on December 21, 2007 at 1:38 PM

I already sent Fred more money today. The rest of you should do the same. He is by far the best candidate in the race. As far as polls are concerned, we are having more of them than we have candidates.

duff65 on December 21, 2007 at 7:27 PM

TheSitRep on December 21, 2007 at 10:28 AM

I am a member of the church of Christ. I heard awhile back he said he didn’t attend worship services much. I would suspect that could be due to his marital situation.

boomer on December 21, 2007 at 7:45 PM

I check in on Fred’s site daily and he’s gotten the message to show more excitement and enthusiasm on the stump. He’s a slow train comin’ but over time he can become a freight train. We in-the-know types here support him ’cause we know. Now it’s up to Fred to let everybody know. I’ve sent in $100 already and will send more in the future.

We HA posters need to make it happen for our guy. If you’re a real conservative Fred’s the only game in town. The Fred deniers need to buy a vowel.

Mojave Mark on December 21, 2007 at 11:56 PM