Crater? Rudy fourth now nationally in Rasmussen; Update: McCain second nationally in Fox poll
posted at 2:30 pm on December 20, 2007 by Allahpundit
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An 11-point fall in 10 days — and he’s still up a point on Fred, whose ceiling appears to be 13%. What happened? I don’t think the security expenses scandal penetrated that far into the public consciousness. It’s more a case of him having not much new to say as Huckabee exploded and turned the campaign into a three-way (or two-way, really) “who’s the real social con?” contest. Rudy figured the more of those types there were dividing up votes between each other, the easier it would be for him to snatch a plurality from non-social cons. Instead, Huckabee soared so high, so fast, and in such an obnoxiously faux-innocent demagogic way that it left natural Rudy voters like me looking to Mitt as someone who could thwart Huck in the early states and split off social con votes before a huge block of them solidified behind Huck. Rudy shrugged off the early primaries counting on the fact that none of the candidates to his right would draw ardent support; he didn’t count on the fact that one of them would draw ardent opposition. That probably explains Mitt’s sudden rise and possibly McCain’s as well since, as centrist as he is, he’s sufficiently orthodox on abortion that he could challenge Huckabee for some social con votes more so than Rudy could if it came to that. Let’s hope it doesn’t.
Rudy’s best hope now, I guess, is (ironically) for Romney to come back and derail Huck by ekeing out a win in Iowa and then have McCain upset Mitt in New Hampshire. That would largely end the threat of a huge Christian conservative turnout for any one candidate and restore the sort of lukewarm equilibrium Giuliani needs to steal that plurality.
The boss is taking a poll on this now so go vote if you haven’t yet. Exit question one: Is Fred the only candidate who can prevent the coming crack-up? Exit question two: Can a Tom Tancredo fan tolerate one of her employees taking a second look at McCain? Let’s hope.
Update: Hmmmmmmm.
Update: I’m glad the holiday break is coming. It doesn’t even pay to try to make sense of this anymore.
Fred’s in fifth now, do note.
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9/11!
zane on December 20, 2007 at 2:36 PM
It was name recognition. Rudy was nationally known by not political types
Now its about issues and Huck however stuopidly is carrying evangelicals. They like his religeous veiws.
However it can swing again. Huck hsa come up too fast and is ready for a bust
William Amos on December 20, 2007 at 2:36 PM
Voted. About 1,950 so far. Sure doesn’t look like the Ras’ poll.
Limerick on December 20, 2007 at 2:37 PM
Oh no, this is terrible as we all know that only Sir Rudolf could possible
save the cheerleaderslay the HildaBeast!MB4 on December 20, 2007 at 2:37 PM
I think in fred’s case most of us have some doubts about if his heart is in this race. But his issues resonate and the alternative is really ugly.
This is why I think Huck will bust because ultimately a closer look and comparison will show republicans who a true conservative is and even if he has flaws atleast he walks the walk rather than just talks the talk
William Amos on December 20, 2007 at 2:38 PM
Huck and Rudy are too liberal. Mitt and Fred (and some who don’t stand a chance at getting nominated) are the only two who would govern as conservatives. At least people are beginning to wake up.
davenp35 on December 20, 2007 at 2:39 PM
I wonder if it’s too late already. I’ve seen no significant indications that Huck’s about to burst anytime soon. The scandals, the exposing of his record…none of that seems to matter.
Giuliani had name recognition and was seen by many as a hero. What does Huck have, besides a Liberal record, that’s causing his continued rise in the polls? His religion.
amerpundit on December 20, 2007 at 2:40 PM
What’s the scoop on McAmnesty trying to squelch some big news story?
MB4 on December 20, 2007 at 2:41 PM
The exposure on national media.
Limerick on December 20, 2007 at 2:41 PM
And it won’t. It’s being taken by people reading these blogs, most likely with better knowledge of their records.
amerpundit on December 20, 2007 at 2:42 PM
He wants the NY Times not to run a story that Bill Bennett has joined his campaign as adding a lobbiest takes the shine off of his anti corruption campagin
William Amos on December 20, 2007 at 2:42 PM
I still think it’s either Romney or Giuliani who get the nomination.
terryannonline on December 20, 2007 at 2:43 PM
Random, but did you know HA shows up in Google News search results?
Vizzini on December 20, 2007 at 2:45 PM
I think Rudy will boomerang back. He has just been out of the news cycle lately.
Spirit of 1776 on December 20, 2007 at 2:47 PM
Rudy’s strategy is wrong and has been wrong in presidential politics in the USA. To feel that somehow this year would be different shows that he does not understand how it works.
I’d like to think that the same thing will happen of the D’s proposing tax hikes. That’s NEVER (N-E-V-E-R) worked to get someone elected. If someone were to tell you that they will help you by hurting you, you’d tell them to go jump in a lake. Yet that’s what the D’s are expecting.
There’s a lot more ‘firsts’ going on here than the first woman or first african-american running. And most of these firsts are going to be lasts if political pundits are actually worth their paychecks.
ThackerAgency on December 20, 2007 at 2:47 PM
The update is plain ol’ scary!
Limerick on December 20, 2007 at 2:47 PM
Oh, goody.
amerpundit on December 20, 2007 at 2:49 PM
Ref the update: Sample dates 16-19…4 days to get 600 responses?
Limerick on December 20, 2007 at 2:49 PM
I don’t buy it. These polls are stinking something awful and they don’t match up with what you get when talking to people one on one.
You ask 20 conservatives on the street who they’re voting for and maybe two say Huckabee, but somehow he’s leading all the polls.
Gregor on December 20, 2007 at 2:50 PM
Again….600 responses….Fred shows a drop to 5%…so he has 30 supporters out of that sample? 30??????? That just seems screwy to me.
Limerick on December 20, 2007 at 2:51 PM
Actually, that’s not the story.
Drudge says that McCain has hired BOB (not Bill) Bennett (Bob was a lawyer who repersented Clinton during Lewinski) to try to force the New York Times to spike a story.
The story, according to Drudge, alleges that St.John gave a female telecom lobbyist special access to draft telecom legislation.
The telecom lobbyist has lawyered up as well.
McCain, predictably, is “questioning the timing”.
Jack M. on December 20, 2007 at 2:51 PM
It was a combination of Mistressgate and finally being convinced that the one-issue abortion voters really and truly would never help us elect him that made me give up on Rudy. I knew all along about his affair with Judi while he was married to another woman, but having it dragged out and being forced to really look at it was a different experience altogether. I just couldn’t swallow it and smile anymore. The whole Judi thing goes totally against my grain.
I’ll still vote for Rudy if he’s the nominee, but I’m not going to try to make excuses for his reprehensible personal choices. I supported him because I thought he was most electable. But the chance of swaying a purple state or two probably can’t make up for losing the single-issue abortion voters, of whom there are a great many.
aero on December 20, 2007 at 2:56 PM
Instead, they’ve given us a fiscal Liberal whose only Conservative position is on abortion and marriage. Oh, and that Hillary & Crew will steamroll in the general.
amerpundit on December 20, 2007 at 2:59 PM
Fred is currently at 46%, weird, I thought he was done?
I hope the Paulians do not ruin the poll.
Theworldisnotenough on December 20, 2007 at 3:00 PM
Hell you should try looking at it for free…it is even worse.
Limerick on December 20, 2007 at 3:02 PM
Yeah. One thing this election is teaching me is that letting “them” wag the dog is not in our collective best interest.
aero on December 20, 2007 at 3:02 PM
That’s it. Natural Rudy voters decided that they need to kinda-sorta pander to the whiny evangelicals in order that the “coalition” is not split.
Big S on December 20, 2007 at 3:03 PM
It’s a fun poll that represents a couple thousand of Hot Air and MM readers’ views. And I’ve kind of noticed Fred is popular around the conservative blogosphere.
amerpundit on December 20, 2007 at 3:03 PM
That poll hosting site is a pop-up nightmare.
TexasDan on December 20, 2007 at 3:03 PM
Say, did you guys know that Rudy was mayor of New York? You know, the city where 9/11 happened? And he was mayor? The 9/11 mayor? Didya? Huh?
MadisonConservative on December 20, 2007 at 3:05 PM
I agree. A HA poster, Tink, on one of the other threads is from southwest IA, a more conservative part of the state, and she said Huck’s name doesn’t even come up in conversation, plus he had one yard sign in the whole danged town. My relatives are centrists who cross over frequently, and are devout Christians. They dislike him intensely. I think there may be some sampling problems. The anecdotal stuff I am hearing doesn’t match the polls.
a capella on December 20, 2007 at 3:06 PM
I’m a Fred supporter, but don’t take this poll as anything meaningful beyond knowing where MM and HA readers stand. We are very far from being representative of the general voting public. 99% of voters will never, ever give the candidates as close an inspection as we political junkies and blog readers do. We’ve reamed every candidate multiple times over and are going through them again for good measure now. In contrast, the voters responding to Rasmussen and Zogby might just be hearing the candidates’ names for the first time this month. I’m not kidding.
aero on December 20, 2007 at 3:06 PM
It’s what they do. They apparently just haven’t started swarming on the poll yet.
Am I bad for wanting to make “special access to draft telecom legislation” something dirty?
ReubenJCogburn on December 20, 2007 at 3:08 PM
I think all these pollsters are just messing with us, probably at the behest of the MSM and/or Hillary.
Trying to
getkeep us folks that follow this stuff closely fighting amongst ourselves, and confusing further those that pay little attention to politics.LegendHasIt on December 20, 2007 at 3:08 PM
Still 100% Fred!
We need to have the courage to stick with Fred through the primaries and regardless of what the MSM and push polers want us to think aboutr his standing or chances.
At least for me, my conscience will be clear when I vote for Fred, and I am willing to be a proud part of a smaller conservative minority in this country if we have finally come to this.
AZCON on December 20, 2007 at 3:09 PM
Yeah Im pretty much a fredhead now. Blank Polls
JVelez on December 20, 2007 at 3:12 PM
He ran this city (bigger than most states) better than anyone else ever has, while constantly taking fire from all sides for 8 years. In a previous career he led the charge against the Mafia and broke the Five Families. He’s accomplished as much or more than any of the other candidates in either party.
Big S on December 20, 2007 at 3:13 PM
McCain has been endorsed by the Boston Globe. That puts him on the scale close to Teddy Kennedy and a few more points away from Che.
Hening on December 20, 2007 at 3:13 PM
Don’t shovel the dirt on Rudy’s face just yet. Huck’s surge is peaking and according to RCP averages, Rudy is still clinging on to a slim lead in early states Florida and Michigan. Neither Huck nor Mitt are gonna capture all three of Iowa, NH, and SC. So, no one is going to have momentum going into 2/5. This favors Rudy who still leads in the delegate rich states voting on that day. Rudy still should be the delegate leader on 2/6.
tommylotto on December 20, 2007 at 3:14 PM
That is kind of my point. Who is represented on the conservative blogosphere if it is not the Republican base? I do not discredit polling, but the disconnect seems apparent. Their are cultural aspects to polling that do not appear in the numbers. The Bradley effect comes to mind. Fred did go into his Senate race 20 points down and ended up 20 points up on election night, an no one saw that coming.
Endorsements from state capo’s are worth several interest groups. Steve Kings endorsement carries weight. I told a coworker (Hunter supporter) that McClintock has endorsed Fred and and he lit up like a Christmas tree. When the grassroots GOP leadership is endorsing a candidate that candidate is in much better shape than a poll may indicate.
And lets not forget the almighty Maha Rushie, his non-endorsement endorsement of Fred is significant, if he is not directly wired into the Republican (and nation hid listeners aren’t all GOP’ers) then who is?
Allah’s poll based snark, rings hollow.
Theworldisnotenough on December 20, 2007 at 3:16 PM
I’m gonna flat out state for the record that NONE of this makes sense. Maybe that’s why they say common sense ain’t too common. Either that or the world is on its head. Either way I’m not investing in the outcome.
CTDeLude on December 20, 2007 at 3:18 PM
I always thought the Republican base were older. My guess is they don’t frequent blogs about politics (if any blogs at all).
bnelson44 on December 20, 2007 at 3:19 PM
In Michelle’s poll, I wonder how many people are voting for the candidate that they dislike least that has a decent chance, rather than the one that they would actually prefer to win, all other things being equal???
I started to vote for Fred, because, while he is actually my second choice, I think he has a good chance. But in the end, I had to go with Hunter, because he is by far the best choice as far as being a straight, honest, conservative with no known scandals or pseudo-scandals in his past. But how many people are voting for Fred (or someone else) because they don’t think Hunter can win?
LegendHasIt on December 20, 2007 at 3:21 PM
I think the message to be taken from these wildly disparate and rapidly-changing polls is that this time, you early voters can really and truly go out and vote the way your heart tells you to, without undue consideration for so-called “electability.” This situation seems to take the electability factor off the table to some degree, since none of them are coming out as the one who can clearly take it all home for the GOP. I have to think at this point that any of the top 5 can still theoretically win the nomination, and that any of the top 5 probably has an equal (albeit slim) chance of winning the general against Hillary or Obama.
aero on December 20, 2007 at 3:22 PM
I’m guessing that the poll craziness is a combination of three things:
1.) People are taking a second look at candidates, throwing the whole thing up in the air.
2.) Pollsters have a hard time figuring out who a “likely voter” is; remember, last year Republicans got killed in the midterm elections, and the party registration dropped. That’s factoring into a lot of pollsters’ likely voter screens, but not necessarily the same whay in each poll.
3.) People who have decided on a candidate have gotten sick of answering calls from pollsters after a year-long primary campaign.
Big S on December 20, 2007 at 3:23 PM
I don’t pay as much attention to the minutia as you do AP, but I’d guess that a majority of the MSM recommendations went to McCain leading to his increasing support. Rudy probably had a misleading boost in his numbers resulting from all of the Rudy-bots supported him right out of the gate, but although his support was deep it was also narrow, which is Huck’s problem as well. Now that undecided voters, which glean a significant portion of their news and opinions from the MSM, are making their decisions regarding a candidate, they are backing McCain.
McCain’s rise, if true, is a combination of a vestigial affect left over from 2000 and the MSM endorsements mixed together with undecided voters that probably don’t give it very much thought. Those are the people with which the MSM still holds the most sway.
FloatingRock on December 20, 2007 at 3:23 PM
Only if someone put a gun to my head, I could vote for Fred, but I would feel dirty the rest of my life. I would feel like I was voting for a fraud — a pro-choice candidate that has the unmitigating gall to claim to be pro-life. A career lobbyist and legal advisor to murderous terrorists. An undistinguished Senator that did little more than give us CFR, botch the Clinton campaign finance investigation and voted to keep a perjurer in the Oval office. Oh, and he was a mole for Nixon who thought he was stupid.
tommylotto on December 20, 2007 at 3:25 PM
Whatever….
ChrisM on December 20, 2007 at 3:27 PM
One thing about Rasmussen polls: they survey 600 likely Republican primary voters in an automated telephone survey nightly. So — people who don’t answer the phone at night, aren’t home at night, or are don’t have a landline anymore — they aren’t sampled. From personal observation — a lot of old people who watch Christian TV — they stay home at night and are likely to answer the phone.
SunSword on December 20, 2007 at 3:28 PM
Our featured guest tonight is Tommyfredatemybabylotto..stay tuned.
ChrisM on December 20, 2007 at 3:30 PM
SunSword on December 20, 2007 at 3:28 PM
The key word is “likely”. Rasmussen’s always doing interviews pimping his polls based on the fact that they screen for likely voters. He always says that his firm is the only one that does it, which is completely untrue. His LV screen is tight, and is rejecting a lot of moderate voters that every other polling firm includes. It’s based on a guess; whether that guess is right or not is the real question.
Big S on December 20, 2007 at 3:36 PM
Note that Rasmussen didn’t poll from 11/22-26 because of the Thanksgiving holiday.
If the IA caucus wasn’t looming, I doubt everybody would be polling this close to Christmas. And I think the conflicting results bear that out.
Karl on December 20, 2007 at 3:42 PM
That’s not all. According to this poll, McCain is tied in New Hampshire and SECOND in Iowa, where he has hardly campaigned.
Rightwingsparkle on December 20, 2007 at 3:46 PM
RudyHuckabeeYep. That’ll do it.
madmonkphotog on December 20, 2007 at 3:52 PM
If only….
Dream a little dream.
omnipotent on December 20, 2007 at 3:57 PM
Yes, he is. And I don’t know if he’s gonna be the nominee. I really, really hope he is.
Bad Candy on December 20, 2007 at 4:03 PM
Sounding a diferent tune a few threads ago weren’t we?
National polls as a basis for positive reprting for Fred should be discounted, this being a state by state primary. But not when he is fifth, instead of second in a national poll, then it shall be noted, gotcha.
Theworldisnotenough on December 20, 2007 at 4:36 PM
Wow… The Ronulans came out in full force to try and tilt that poll over at Michelle’s site…
Sheesh…
Nineball on December 20, 2007 at 4:47 PM
Fred is just drafting on them till he jumps.
TheSitRep on December 20, 2007 at 4:50 PM
Wow… The FredHeads actually beat the Ronulans in an online poll. Amazing!
techno_barbarian on December 20, 2007 at 5:21 PM
I am no great fan of McCain, but I hope he kicks some reporters ass. And Drudge is a slimeball to highlight this without any facts, none.
He is willing to damage a mans campaign on a weak rumor. I expect that from the NYT, and now I expect it from Drudge.
right2bright on December 20, 2007 at 6:06 PM
Fred needs to change his name to Fredron Thompson-Paul and cash in on some of that crazy RP polling action.
Is Charlton Heston still around? Maybe a nice Thompson-Heston ticket. Chuck would fit in nicely, waving his gun around on the white house lawn and scaring off the MoonBats:
“Get your taxes off me, you damn dirty apes!”
And think of the evangelical vote! After all, he was Moses.
I’ll be glad when technology catches up and we can thaw out the Duke.
Can you tell that this election cycle has stretched out far too long?
Timothy S. Carlson on December 20, 2007 at 8:07 PM
ARG is always, always, more favorable to McCain than any other poll. And the national polls don’t mean much, because Hillary is blowing away the field on the Dem side, and I don’t think anyone is betting the house on Hillary being the Dem nominee at this point.
The caucuses are wide open right now. We have five major candidates in the Republican field and the leaders are hovering around 20%. That means anything can happen.
Dudley Smith on December 20, 2007 at 8:40 PM