Attrition through enforcement: Illegals heading home from Arizona?
posted at 11:44 am on December 20, 2007 by Allahpundit
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Good stuff. If only the same paper hadn’t written basically the same article four months ago.
Although I guess that just proves the phenomenon has some legs.
Congress’ failure to pass comprehensive immigration reform, immigration crackdowns, Arizona’s new employer-sanctions law and a sluggish economy have combined to create a climate families such as the Francos no longer find hospitable.
The number returning to Mexico is difficult to calculate, but there is no question that many families are leaving, according to Mexican government officials, local community leaders and immigrants themselves…
Dozens of immigrants are leaving the U.S. daily, and even more are expected to leave once the sanctions law takes effect in January, provided the law survives a last-minute legal challenge, said Rosendo Hernandez, president of the advocacy group Immigrants Without Borders…
In what are considered bellwethers of permanent moves back to Mexico, the Mexican consulate in Phoenix has seen a dramatic increase in applications for Mexican birth certificates, passports and other documents that immigrants living in Arizona will need to return home…
The economy could be devastated if all were to leave, advocates say. But [Rep. John] Kavanagh, one of the most outspoken backers of the sanctions law, doubts the law will have much impact on Arizona’s economy. He hopes any economic problems caused by illegal immigrants leaving Arizona will pressure Congress to create a guest-worker program to allow more foreign-born workers to enter legally to help fill labor gaps.
Note the detail near the end about what happens when you have an anti-sanctuary sheriff like Joe Arpaio who isn’t willing to look the other way a la Mayor Rudy because, hey, immigration’s the feds’ problem, man. As for Kavanagh, it could be years before a guest-worker program passes; if this exodus is as mass as the article suggests and the economic damage is grave, it could actually be a boon to illegals in proving their claim that America can’t function without them.
Exit question lifted from the last post I wrote about Arizona: Aren’t decamping illegals more likely to go to California or Nevada than Mexico? And won’t the resulting labor shortage in Arizona drives up wages, attracting citizens from California and Nevada to decamp to Arizona?
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Adios!
Tru2my2 on December 20, 2007 at 11:48 AM
So, you’ve shifted the problem?
amerpundit on December 20, 2007 at 11:52 AM
Anecdotally Allahpundit, the “Day without a Immigrant” meant to punish the US economically was a total flop. The freeways were clear and business carried on normally. The big flaw in the idea that illegals will cripple the economy is the nice pool of people now living highly subsidised lifestyles, they can take the jobs. Illegals are not assimilated and integrated into the economy at large. If they disappear so do the Mexican enclaves and the businesses that depend on them. The economy at large does not depend on them. the wages of not assimilating is that their impact is only sopecific to low wage jobs that we can replace easily, or pay americans more. A cost we are more than willing to accept.
Theworldisnotenough on December 20, 2007 at 11:52 AM
yea! Hear that President Bush?
The comments are interesting. For the record, my husband cuts our grass and plows our snow, I clean my house and tend my garden and my kids rake leaves, complaining the whole time. When they are old enough they will be flipping burgers or packing bags at the grocery store if they want cash. Pride of accomplishment in a good days hard work is lacking in America today. It may take a recession to return to it.
ctmom on December 20, 2007 at 11:52 AM
I hope that the Mexican nationals who have lived in the US for so long have picked up our habits of open discourse and antipathy to corruption. Mexico could use a lot a little of this.
Bill C on December 20, 2007 at 11:53 AM
Didn’t Duncan Hunter mention how this “problem” will be dealt with. He said the plan to fence the AZ/Mex. border by May was gone. See, Congress took care of everything. That’s proactive!
JiangxiDad on December 20, 2007 at 11:54 AM
If Decent paying jobs open up in Az. displaced Americans will move back south again.
Speakup on December 20, 2007 at 11:55 AM
Yes, industrious enough to do the “jobs-Americans-won’t-do”, but not enough so to say “hey, our homeland is a pile of sh*t, lets fix that.”
Frozen Tex on December 20, 2007 at 12:00 PM
Or… call me crazy… but maybe the traditional holders of those low-paying jobs (you know, teenagers) may start coming back to them again. Illegals drove them out of those jobs, hopefully they’ll start coming back and we can get asked if we want fries with that by some surly teenager instead of asked in broken Spanglish.
crazy_legs on December 20, 2007 at 12:02 PM
Some of them are comming here to Oregon to get drivers liscences while they still don’t have to prove legality. That will change in Jan when they will have to provide a valid SSN or passport. In short, AZs solution has in the short term increased our problem here.
P. James Moriarty on December 20, 2007 at 12:03 PM
Sweet freaking mother of Irony.
TexasDan on December 20, 2007 at 12:06 PM
MB4 on December 20, 2007 at 12:10 PM
And they’ll need solid proof of their Mexican citizenship, because, in a fit of irony, Mexico has a shoot-to-kill policy toward people entering their country illegally.
Spc Steve on December 20, 2007 at 12:11 PM
Comment from the “news” link:
And California. New numbers were released today:
peski on December 20, 2007 at 11:42 AM
peski on December 20, 2007 at 12:13 PM
That is true, generally. But California is not going to be able to absorb the illegals.
The elephant in the room is the economic crisis in California (15 billion dollar defecit). The tax hike will not pass and will have to become a ballot measure. We won’t pass it, and the budget will have to be trimmed (when cutting spending any money going to ilegals is going to be a hot button issue, tell the state you can’t provide basic services and you have to raise tuition, while not cutting costs associated with illegal immigration and see how far that gets you), AND Ahnuld just got a healthplan through to cover illegals, cost: another 14 billion. Also the economy they need to get jobs is not here, the housing market is down there is no place for them to go , the people leaving California were the source of the illegal alien communites underground economy.
The cost of illegal immigration can no longer be hidden behind a growing economy. California cannot afford illegals, they can cry all they want to and scream racism, but the money is not there. If illegals do flock to California then it is only going to exacerbate the afore mentioned trends. The once friendly or better said apathetic politcal climate that tolerated illegal aliens can no longer afford to do so.
Theworldisnotenough on December 20, 2007 at 12:13 PM
Capitalism has a wonderful way of working this all out. It’s when commies get in the mix and try to turn economic health into votes and entitlements.
Hening on December 20, 2007 at 12:14 PM
Remember the huge illegal immigrant rallies they held a while back? They had one in Phoenix yesterday. They attracted dozens of protesters. I think it’s working here in AZ—and, yeah, I suspect that surrounding states are getting most of the immigrants w/o borders.
jdpaz on December 20, 2007 at 12:17 PM
Yes to an extent. Also, at least these numbers in the second link are inflated partly as scare tactic:
There would be little to no reason for legal non-citizens to leave and very likely the tight labor & softer housing markets would be more of a draw for that same segment since there is a regular inflow. Economic output, when taking the legal non-citizens out would be $19.4-21.8B & 5.4-6.15% drop of GSP, 9.2-10.5% drop in workforce and those numbers as you suggest are without accounting for the offset due to an influx. BTW, per Wiki, “the 2004 total gross state product was $187 billion” for Arizona.
Dusty on December 20, 2007 at 12:18 PM
Human trafficking/slavery a biproduct, most prevalent in California.
Entelechy on December 20, 2007 at 12:25 PM
Alas, s/b byproduct (some things never change)
Entelechy on December 20, 2007 at 12:28 PM
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out!!
MarkB on December 20, 2007 at 12:31 PM
I liked the part about them needing birth certificats, etc, to get into Mexico. Hmm, can’t they just sneak in the same way they came to the US??? Amazing how Mexico is enforcing their laws, but they don’t think we should enforce ours. Typical double standard.
StephC on December 20, 2007 at 12:31 PM
Top AZ Republic Story today
The border fence in Yuma, AZ is working…go figure.
mauioriginal on December 20, 2007 at 12:33 PM
We done mierda up our own casa real bad so now we are going to mierda up your casa real bad too, Gringo.
- Jose No Borders Gonzales
MB4 on December 20, 2007 at 12:34 PM
Agents stage raid to catch illegals
Even the Pacific Ocean is not enough to keep the illegals out. I just don’t remember many hispanic illegals when I was a kid. I knew there were phillipinos and few asians, even Canadians down the street. But I guess that there are a lot of illegal hispanics there now.(Although this particular article does not reference any national origin) I’m glad they were able to afford the air fare and cost of living there. Sheesh.
mauioriginal on December 20, 2007 at 12:39 PM
Always lots of talk about the economy, not so much about right versus wrong.
Speakup on December 20, 2007 at 12:55 PM
Exit question is right on target. If you want to get rid of unwanted “creatures” (sorry for the un-PC metaphor: rats, insurgents, illegals, etc.), you make life unpleasant in one area, and they will leave. But if you want them to depart to a specific place, then you have to make all options unpleasant except the one you desire.
So, if we continue with the sanctuary city BS, you are merely shifting the problem.
On the other hand, imagine being a sanctuary city that just enjoyed a 70% sudden increase in illegals. How long do you think their administrations will last?
There is hope yet. Keep the pressure up!
thejackal on December 20, 2007 at 12:56 PM
I still blame our politicians (they need to be thrown out from both sides of the isle, and 2008 will have this issue front/center, for both), the employers, commerce depts, advocates, etc. and not so much the migrants.
Entelechy on December 20, 2007 at 12:58 PM
I would sure like to see some righteous DA go after them with the RICO statutes.
MB4 on December 20, 2007 at 1:10 PM
I don’t agree at all, when these advocates quote such stats they always leave out the myriad of hidden costs on the overall economy as well as the many hidden costs to legal tax paying citizens; such as medical (I can’t count the number of times the main emergency room in Phoenix was shut down and had to be financially bailed out due to illegals using the emergency room for their regular doctors visits) the costs of numerous other government handouts, emergency services (fire police, etc.) higher insurance costs (uninsured motorist insurance coverage is required in AZ) higher crime rates, the costs to investigate and prosecute illegal alien criminals then the costs to house and feed the illegal criminal element, and the list goes on and on!
The bottom line is illegals usually don’t pay taxes to pay for all of the above (and then some) and most of the money they earn goes back to their country of origin so I fail to see how the money they do spend in our country (the small percentage that doesn’t go back to their country of origin) could possibly offset what they cost the overall economy in order to have a net positive effect, it just doesn’t add up. The only entities getting a net positive are the companies that hire illegals; they are bolstering their bottom line at the “average Joe/Janes’s” expense.
I said some time ago when the illegal immigration issue came up (actually well before) that our government needed to focus on the companies that employee illegals and slap them with STIFF sanctions to the point where hiring an illegal would not be an economic benefit and if this new law in AZ is any indication it will work, that is if the bleeding heart lib-tards don’t get in the way.
As for the illegals moving from AZ to other states with slack immigration laws and/or lack of enforcement I feel for their legal citizens and I would suggest you force your law makers (through your votes) to get them to abandon being a sanctuary city, strengthen anti-illegal immigration laws, and most importantly allow their local law enforcement to enforce those laws and maybe we’ll see even more flocking back to south of the border!
All I can say is AZ is on the right track, oh and one more thing…Buh Bye amigo, don’t let the border gate hit you on the way out!
Liberty or Death on December 20, 2007 at 1:13 PM
We no longer have representative government. In 2006 the lefties won by having passed the ‘double border fence’ initiative, and now they 180 degreed it. When the president signed it, he looked constipated. They knew all along that nothing will happen.
I’m more for enforcing the current employment laws than focusing entirely on the border. We should do both, but the employers is where it’s at. Both parties support the illegality of it all, contrary to what the citizens overwhelmingly wish. Unless both sides get their noses bloodied in the Congress/Senate, nothing will change.
Entelechy on December 20, 2007 at 1:25 PM
ftfy. It’ll change all right.
TexasDan on December 20, 2007 at 2:22 PM
Guess we didn’t need that pesky old fence after all! They were for it before they were agin it!
Vanquisher on December 20, 2007 at 2:24 PM
Good riddance!! Now its time to muster our strength and say adios to all those who defunded the fence… I read a republican female Texas senator who may run for governor pushed it through..
build the wall on December 20, 2007 at 2:26 PM
i live in AZ and have been tracking this closely. points of interest.
1. the AZ Contractors Ass. and Chambers of Comm. are all against the employer verification law set to go into effect on 1/1/08. I resigend from both org’s.
2. Businesses that cater to illegals are going bust left and right. boo freakin hoo.
3. yes, our illegals are becoming NM and CA and CO’s illegals, but some are going home to Old Mexico. And if all the states passed this law, all the illegals would bail.
4. Fed Judge says he’ll rule on the constitutionality of this law by tomorrow the 21st. Our Dem Governess signed the law when she saw she couldn’t stop it. But she’s no fan and will be happy if it is run aground.
DrW on December 20, 2007 at 2:31 PM
Sherrif Joe is already enforcing immigration law now and promises to begin investigations into employer verificaiton violations on 1/2/08 as is County Attorney and hard ass Andrew Thomas. The AZ Gov, Phoenix Chief of Police and AZ Attorney Gen. are all wishing the whole thing would go away and do not want to enforce the law. It’s sickening.
DrW on December 20, 2007 at 2:36 PM
if this exodus is as mass as the article suggests and the economic damage is grave, it could actually be a boon to illegals in proving their claim that America can’t function without them.
Now that IS a LOAD OF CRAP! America has run great without them AND WILL DO SO again! These people fill up less then 30% of the so-called workers gap! I personally know of at least 50 people who can not get work in and around the New Orleans area because of Illegal Aliens!
Confederate on December 20, 2007 at 4:06 PM
Oklahoma’s laws are working well so why wouldn’t Arizona’s? Now it’s time to throw the amnesty crowd completely out of Washington DC.
Buzzy on December 20, 2007 at 8:23 PM
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