Keep hope alive: Mitt back up by three in Iowa in new Insider Advantage poll
posted at 7:00 pm on December 18, 2007 by Allahpundit
Via Riehl. The good news: Just what the headline says. The bad news:
1. That’s among “very likely voters.” Huck still leads among “likely voters,” albeit narrowly.
2. Compare IA’s numbers to other recent state polls. Unless this is the very first shockwave from an anti-Huckabee backlash, it’s an outlier.
3. IA hasn’t conducted a poll in the state in two months so there’s no way to judge the trend. For what it’s worth, their October poll was in line with others at the time, giving us a little more confidence here.
4. Fred’s still 17 points off the pace, although he is at least in double digits. Rudy, meanwhile, has completely cratered and now trails not only McCain but Ron Paul.
5. Dear god, no.
Blowback
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Look at what Drudge has up on his front page.
bnelson44 on December 18, 2007 at 7:04 PM
This may yet turn into the Battle of the Guys with Great Hair!
Regarding Mitt, I expect more tears in the coming weeks. Crying seems to be getting results, so I think Mr. Sensitive is probably here to stay.
aero on December 18, 2007 at 7:08 PM
Wonder if its related to story NY Daily news did earlier this month ?
http://willamos.myblogsite.com/entry226.html#track
Ah political rumor mongering !
William Amos on December 18, 2007 at 7:10 PM
Great, add another 5 points to his lead.
right2bright on December 18, 2007 at 7:10 PM
5. Dear God…YES!
By far the easiest of the big 3 to beat in the general. Eight months of two Americas and only one will show up at the polls.
Limerick on December 18, 2007 at 7:17 PM
Good for Mitt.
What exactly is the difference between a “likely voter” and a “very likely voter” and does it have anything to do with blizzards?
Rudy’s mojo has officially gone south for the winter, and why is it that Fred just cant seem to kickstart anyting for any length of time beyond one day?
Wait, did you say Rudy trails RonPaul?
Is that “revenge of the blowback” or what. I think I’ll go get drunk on eggnog.
Always Right on December 18, 2007 at 7:19 PM
Paul is campaigning in Iowa, Rudy isn’t
bnelson44 on December 18, 2007 at 7:21 PM
I do not intend to hijack this fine thread, but I am suddenly overwhelmed by a question that seems to have no answer:
Edwards v Ron Paul?
Discuss? Or just wretch…
Jaibones on December 18, 2007 at 7:25 PM
They must really hate flash hiders in Iowa.
mad saint jack on December 18, 2007 at 7:29 PM
Iowa being a caucus state favors small groups. Look for Paul to do well as well as other fringe candidates
new Hampshire is another matter. Let hope McCain upsets Mitt there and that will open up everything to super Tuesday
William Amos on December 18, 2007 at 7:29 PM
Oh…Silky’s lovechild…and just in time for Christmas!
NickTx on December 18, 2007 at 7:33 PM
At the after Christmas sales everyone needs to stock up on keyboards….we are gonna need em.
Limerick on December 18, 2007 at 7:33 PM
I’m surprised. Really, I am. I had written off Iowa as a second place finish for Mitt. Of course, this is most likely an outlier poll. It’s hard for any republican to get support when one candidate has the pastors openly telling their parishioners whom to vote for (isn’t that against the campaign finance rules?)
Vanceone on December 18, 2007 at 7:35 PM
Freds up at least a point.
NickTx on December 18, 2007 at 7:37 PM
Don’t worry about Edwards.
Micky Kaus’s dream has come alive. Checkout Drudge.
Nessuno on December 18, 2007 at 7:37 PM
Although the new Townhall read in the headlines looks good for Fred…the poll shows ZERO 18-29 yo’s in both likely/very likely catagories in his column. Bigots!:)
Limerick on December 18, 2007 at 7:39 PM
Not surprising at all.
Neither is this.
Gianni on December 18, 2007 at 7:48 PM
If Thompson and Edwards win the primaries, that would be so awesome for my site. Vote like the future of IMAO depends on it!
frankj on December 18, 2007 at 7:58 PM
JESUS LOVES HIM.
thareb on December 18, 2007 at 8:05 PM
So both Paul and Tancredo could top Giuliani in Iowa?
If that happened he would probably be kaput.
MB4 on December 18, 2007 at 8:08 PM
If so…where would he land? McCain is my bet.
Limerick on December 18, 2007 at 8:10 PM
I think he would, on life support, hang on for a while then endorse McCain when it’s too late to do any good.
???
MB4 on December 18, 2007 at 8:15 PM
I doubt it, he’s known all along he can’t win Iowa, so he hasn’t even tried. Theres no way he would back out, even with a last place finish in Iowa.
Gianni on December 18, 2007 at 8:23 PM
hmmmmm……I always have discounted the 3rd party thing…starting to make me nervous now.
Limerick on December 18, 2007 at 8:24 PM
I think he’s already kaput. There’s only so much baggage voters can take, and he’s past his limit.
Slublog on December 18, 2007 at 8:37 PM
Drudge.
pedestrian on December 18, 2007 at 9:33 PM
Heh. Johnny Bag ‘o’ Douches in the lead. The Silky Pony. The Breck Girl.
Woe is the Democrat Party.
Jaibones on December 18, 2007 at 9:35 PM
Could the Great White Knight Templar vanquish America’s mayor? Poor Rudy.
If you even have to give that more than a second’s thought, something is seriously wrong. Okay, so Paul is an old school libertarian constitutionalist Republican which may not be your cup of tea, but Silky is an effing socialist!
Mark Jaquith on December 18, 2007 at 9:54 PM
That’s just ugly. Clearly we’d need to amend the Constitution to allow for Do-Overs in cases of extreme suckitude.
ReubenJCogburn on December 19, 2007 at 12:19 AM
Rudiani-Kerik loses in every state, including Florida. Bye bye.
saved on December 19, 2007 at 5:41 AM