Video: “Here Comes Another Bubble”
posted at 7:24 pm on December 6, 2007 by Allahpundit
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Revised Christmas wishlist. Out: the iPhone. In: Twenty million stock options in Hot Air.
My plan is to hold, hold, hold — then dump ‘em on November 3, 2008. Kaboom!
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Brilliant. I can see it being taught in schools ten years from now – just as the original song was being taught in school when I was a kid.
Apeking on December 6, 2007 at 7:30 PM
im in!
zane on December 6, 2007 at 7:30 PM
Awesome …
Required reading.
thirteen28 on December 6, 2007 at 7:33 PM
LOL!!
GT on December 6, 2007 at 7:33 PM
I enjoyed the cameo of Ted Stevens with his “series of tubes”
jayj on December 6, 2007 at 7:34 PM
Does that come on a roll?
Kini on December 6, 2007 at 7:36 PM
Neato
Rode Werk on December 6, 2007 at 7:39 PM
Why yes, yes we will.
aero on December 6, 2007 at 7:50 PM
the bubble is going to burst. it’s only a question of how bad the damage is this time.
lorien1973 on December 6, 2007 at 7:50 PM
“Babies blogging in the womb” heh. great.
Weight of Glory on December 6, 2007 at 7:51 PM
Very witty video, and very true.
It should always be a humbling reminder to investors that psychology plays a huge role in the price of individual stocks. (Generally, I think the market is as a whole is rational.)
Nessuno on December 6, 2007 at 7:56 PM
Freaking awesome.
peski on December 6, 2007 at 7:58 PM
Very funny.
Clark1 on December 6, 2007 at 7:58 PM
In 1997 I devised a scheme to sell tulip bulbs on the internet. It seemed like a great idea after about a dozen Heinekens. Shoulda gone with my gut.
RedWinged Blackbird on December 6, 2007 at 8:02 PM
“Dot.con: How America Lost Its Mind and Money in the Internet Era”
I love how he talks about the ‘internet era’ like it’s in the past.
How come everybody forgets all the people who did OK in the tech boom? Even without stock options, after the boom I was still better off than I would have been without the boom. Forget about the stocks, the boom created jobs. Lots and lots of well-paying jobs. Yeah, I got laid off in 2003, along with 1/2 my co-workers and millions of other workers. Big deal. It’s the business cycle.
Bad Penny on December 6, 2007 at 8:04 PM
This will probably be worse than the burst bubble in 2001.
mram on December 6, 2007 at 8:04 PM
You know… nobody seems to ever ask the simple question: “How is this going to make money?”
Bubble answer: By selling wads of stock, and then shorting them when people start to figure out that the company isn’t really worth a 75:1 P/E ratio
Real World Answer: By selling a product or service that people want to buy.
Canadian Imperialist Running Dog on December 6, 2007 at 8:17 PM
No, I don’t think so.
The 90s bubble was partly fueled by the explosive growth of internet infrastructure: chips, servers, modems, routers, cables, etc and the public buying PCs and getting online. Once everybody ramped up and had enough equipment, demand fell considerably, and companies that hadn’t won a big enough market share to stay in business became defunct. The other part of the bubble was dot-coms that people invested in but that didn’t pan out. Some dot coms did great – amazon, google – but many others failed.
The current bubble is in social networking sites, isn’t it? These are a really small piece of the high tech pie and even if they all went out of business tomorrow I don’t think it would have a huge impact on the economy.
Bad Penny on December 6, 2007 at 8:19 PM
TulipBulbs.com
The domain name alone would have been worth millions.
RedWinged Blackbird on December 6, 2007 at 8:22 PM
You were a kid then? That would make me….old…
tlynch001 on December 6, 2007 at 8:24 PM
I figured I’d create a website, buy about $50 million worth of rotting tulip bulbs with my Visa card, and then do an IPO.
RedWinged Blackbird on December 6, 2007 at 8:43 PM
Hey, Narcissism is BIG BUSINESS!!!
…or not….?
landlines on December 6, 2007 at 9:04 PM
Yeah… Narcissism is..
But you only have to wander through the new startups (Check Google’s “Orkut”), to see that it’s a muncha worthless mooks stroking themselves.
How much lasting dough do mooks have? Don’t know, but I wouldn’t count on sustainable productivity.
Pet rocks. They’re all pet rocks.
heldmyw on December 6, 2007 at 9:30 PM
Did I ever tell you the story about my IBM XT with a 10MB hard drive, dual 5-1/4 floppies, 256k RAM, and a 12-inch RGB monitor? I was awesome. Cost me $2,200 used.
peski on December 6, 2007 at 10:36 PM
Google and Apple are making boat loads of money from real sales, and are both sitting on mountains of cash. Sure, there are some way overpriced tech stocks, but not even close to what happened in 99-01.
Google makes money selling advertisements, and is going to crack open ads on cell phones with Android. Big untapped market with far more users than PC’s.
spec_ops_mateo on December 6, 2007 at 10:46 PM
In 99, investors were dumping money into vaporware. They learned their lesson. You won’t find any investors willing to pay for vaporware anymore.
Now the big companies are buying up the sites with millions of users and no revenue model. How much do I have to pay to put a movie on youtube? $0? Oh, then how much does it cost to watch them? $0? hmm.
If they can’t find a way of making a bunch of money off these social networking sites, they’ll dump them. A lot of users will be out their favorite pass time, but there won’t be layoffs across the country as a result.
frost on December 6, 2007 at 11:21 PM
well done. That was thoroughly enjoyable. Thanks.
ThackerAgency on December 6, 2007 at 11:23 PM
you had a hard drive?
(and so the nerd bravado begins!)
tlynch001 on December 6, 2007 at 11:35 PM
There were different reasons for the “Clinton Crash” at the end of his term.
One seems to have been overlooked here.
Janet Reno suddenly going hammer and tongs after Microsoft, as the The Clenis’s term/ride neared its end.
IOW…as soon a the bubble was no longer beneficial to Clinton, he engaged in his favorite pastime and pricked it.
Coincidence?
soundingboard on December 6, 2007 at 11:35 PM
I was working at an isp durring the bubble and the pop. With the type of people coming in for westing and rack space I sooooo saw it coming. As I told people then, I tell you now. Don’t invest in anything that doesn’t actually produce anything or at least turn a profit. Stocks based on what they could earn are just nuts. With Lucent and Cisco (they acutally made stuff) even when it burst, they recovered. But places like yomommaisahoeandigotzdapiturs.com didn’t (I hope that isn’t a real site)
- The Cat
MirCat on December 7, 2007 at 12:20 AM
Because if you adjust for real buying dollars, you would realize that you actually lost money. When you include buying power adjusted for inflation and include stock prices/values, the fact is that the tech boom was actually a wash.
Tim Burton on December 7, 2007 at 8:55 AM
A hard drive? Luxury! I had to wake up in the middle of the night and start loading code into my TI-99/4A from a cassette player! Which ran on steam!
saint kansas on December 7, 2007 at 9:50 AM
You know… your post got me thinking, so bear with the long-ish post.
For most of the boom I worked for a big-time equipment maker. Then I heard the siren song of a pre-IPO startup (lots of salary and lots of stock options). Flash-forward a year and the startup folds, I’m out of work for most of the next two years, picking up contract work here and there. Most of my friends in the industry are also out of work at some point during the time between 2001 and 2004.
How does this relate to today’s industry? It doesn’t, I don’t think. Like another poster said, the first boom was driven by demand for bandwidth (both in business and in the home), and the dot-coms. The need for bandwidth ended almost at the same time as the more dubious dot-coms started failing, which is what caused the bubble to burst (real smart on my part to go work on a next-generation router when no one was buying the current generation routers anymroe). I remember vividly the day that Lucent’s stock cratered and we (this was when I was at the big equipment maker) were all congradulating ourselves for not being Lucent. Six months later everyone’s stock started tanking. Add to this the caliber of people that had been hired to fill talent who were wooed by pre-IPO startups wasn’t nearly of the quality of the people who left, and were of course the first ones to get laid off.
So what about now? Social networking sites can actually sell advertising due to having millions of visitors daily. Advertising revenue is much more solid than basing stock prices on phantom sales of phantom products. Plus there’s no huge demand for routers and switches this time, at least not that I can see (I’m in software now, not hardware). And the people that are being hired are quality people, for the most part. My company isn’t hiring people simply to fill chairs, only to lay them off six months from now. The signs of the crash that were there before simply aren’t there this time.
I am better off than I was when the start-up folded. All my friends who have landed on their feet with good jobs. Even though we aren’t getting paid what we got during the boom, we all have good paying jobs. Plus, everyone realizes that salaries were rediculously overinflated during ‘99 – 2001.
The boom gave me valuable experience and opportunities that I needed for my current job, and I wouldn’t be where I am today if those boom jobs hadn’t been there.
crazy_legs on December 7, 2007 at 11:48 AM
My view of stock options in the current climate is “lottery ticket.” I won’t take them in lieu of an acceptable salary/benefits package.
Mark Jaquith on December 7, 2007 at 12:46 PM
Heh, I graduated with a Master’s in IT right at the peak of the bubble in Dec 1999 and was offered stock options by 2 Web companies. I took the boring ERP consulting job instead, beacuse it was more cash. People thought I was stupid at the time.
But today those 2 Web companies no longer exist, and I make six figures doing ERP work.
TallDave on December 7, 2007 at 1:56 PM
crazylegs:
Same for me. My qualifications wouldn’t have gotten me a job if there hadn’t been a severe shortage of qualified people to hire, but with a few classes I managed to cram my foot in the door. The boom gave me the opportunity to learn and, most important, to prove I could do the work well.
I guess I’m not as bitter as some because I sold my stock before the crash. My dad worked in an industry that had a boom/bust cycle so I had learned the hard way that booms don’t last.
Bad Penny on December 7, 2007 at 3:13 PM
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