Iran was, unambiguously, pursuing nuclear weapons at one time.

So if they did it once, isn’t it reasonable to think they might do it again?

Additionally, why does one of the world’s largest oil exporters need nuclear energy? If they are so aboveboard, why were there traces of HEU in Iran? You don’t need HEU for a reactor; only bombs require high enrichment.

Herb Meyer (ex- Reagan administration) was on a local show this afternoon; I understand Rush spoke about an article of his today too. He said that the intelligence services as they are today are a far cry from the OSS in WWII, which was populated with bright industry leaders from finance, technology, etc. To his knowledge there isn’t one high ranking official in our intelligence community that isn’t a career government employee. No outside academics, experts. He said the community now is more like committees and sub-committees with facilitators. He truly does believe that there is a political taint to intelligence and says some of the same things astute Hot Air readers point out – with so many missteps, why trust this, especially when other intelligence reports state there is ‘moderate assurance’ that they haven’t restarted? Sounds like a 50-50 guess to me, and that’s not good enough where Iran and nuclear weapons are concerned.

Iran is continuing to pursue uranium enrichment and has shown more interest in protracting negotiations and working to delay and diminish the impact of UNSC sanctions than in reaching an acceptable diplomatic solution. We assess that Tehran is determined to develop nuclear weapons–despite its international obligations and international pressure.

Doesn’t have the same “color” as the NIE, does it? He said this July, 11 this year, a little less than five months ago! So what happened between then and now to make him go from “Tehran is determined to develop nuclear weapons.” to, they gave it up in 2003? I have a guess but it is just a guess. Wasn’t Israel begging us to do something as early as July. And didn’t we stall in doing that “something.” And didn’t Israel do that “something” in September?

The idea that AFTER they have the critical mass needed it would take YEARS??? 10 or more??? BS. Romeo13

You got that right! All estimates that even a poor nation is 5-10 years from getting nukes is disinformation designed to placate our fears.

I have decided – the ONE candidate that proposes that 1) NIE report is suspicious, and 2) that it doesn’t change a thing…

Will get my vote.

With their penchant for suicide, they could easily build a HUGE A-bomb… like fatboy… into an aircraft, then fly it to the target. Romeo13

Amen brother! Why are we so focused on this “our world” weapon, when the enemy consistently engages in “asymmetrical” warfare?

Was No Korea’s fissiled nuke a failure? Says who? Small yield – perfect for a small delivery system. Good enough to sell, unless you are unimpressed with anything less than a megaton bomb.

What is the yield of Pakistan’s nukes? They seem pretty proud of them.

Agrippa2k on December 5, 2007 at 6:09 PM

Real key to me, as I’ve said before, is that they do NOT have to make this a missle delivered system.

With their penchant for suicide, they could easily build a HUGE A-bomb… like fatboy… into an aircraft, then fly it to the target.

Crap, they could build it into a 747 if they had too…

Or build it into a merchant ship, and sit it off of Haifa Israel…

The idea that AFTER they have the critical mass needed it would take YEARS??? 10 or more??? BS.

Yeah, Curveball baby. Because this guy wasn’t any more in on the loop than was the Iraqi source called Curveball…….

Remember, once we had the fuel in the 40’s, it only took us MONTHS to create the first atomic bomb. Key is the critical mass… the rest is just engineering.

Romeo13

Finally somebody gets it!! That’s right months! Weeks if they have bomb specifications. Days if they have a weapon just waiting for a core.

On the day Iran says “we are going to bomb Israel tomorrow”, are we supposed to say “well at least they stopped research”.

Those who are anti Bush and wrote the NIE were fed information that they wanted to hear.

Perfect storm of Intelligence manipulation.

Those who wrote this will be able to point to a couple of sources for their belief… whether those sources are valid or not…

FACT: Iran continues with 3000 centrifuges.
FACT: Iran HAD a laptop with plans for an atomic weapon.
FACT: You can’t make a nuke without refined fuel.

They have the plans… they are now making the fuel… of course they “suspended” the making of a nuclear weapon in 2003… they didn’t have the stinkin fuel yet!

Remember, once we had the fuel in the 40’s, it only took us MONTHS to create the first atomic bomb. Key is the critical mass… the rest is just engineering.

I don’t remember hearing much about a Syrian nuke program. Suddenly they are making them, thanks to No Korea.

So why should any of this be cause for relaxation?

Again, it’s Newsmax (rolls eyes), hence the FWIW.

I put as much faith in defecting Iranian generals as I do in the liberal cronies who have infected our State Department and Intelligence Services.

Ahmadinejad isn’t going to wipe out Israel with spitballs.

I call bullcrap.

Political posturing. Period. I would not doubt, for a moment, that some certain skirt, and her thrall, are behind it.

And NOBODY has explained to me, yet, how did an NIE end up in PDF format on Limerick’s monitor? It wasn’t put there to show me how smart someone was.

Always Right on December 5, 2007 at 5:32 PM

I’m with you. Somethings afoot.

I can’t shake this feeling that this is some kind of royal con job. One for the ages if it’s completely off the mark. I don’t know why, exactly, but maybe it has to do with the huge overnight 180. I don’t want war, or violence, I want peace, but it’s just unbelievable that our government is all of a sudden going to shelve this threat, especially given all the info we’ve been getting the last few years.

I suppose time will tell.

I just have this sneaky little feeling that this is ALL a con job by the Iranians to dupe our amateur-hour intelligence community into believing Iran has stopped its nuke program…

As others have already theorized, it could also be a con-job by our so-called intelligence agencies who are playing CYA after the previous intelligence failures regarding Iraq’s WMD programs, with them wanting to err on the “don’t go to war” side.

I think it’s probably a combination of both your theory and this one.

Thomas Joscelyn, along with several bloggers such as Ace and CQ, hammer home that the latest NIE represents a flip-flop from a position one of its authors advocated just five months before: As many recognize, the latest NIE on……

when it fact it is and always has been full speed ahead.

What, you think its so difficult to deceive our State Department and the CIA on muslim intel when they dont even have enough translators even today?