The new US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, realistically ends any possibility of military action against the Islamist nation and also undermines the movement for tough sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program….
In effect Washington has…

It amazes me that the Liberals, who have been saying for years that our intelligence sources can’t be trusted in the aftermath of the Iraq invasion, have now seized the new Iran NIE as absolute gospel. It also seems strange…

Can anyone point me to a pdf of the NIE itself.

davod on December 4, 2007 at 5:15 AM

If I could, I would have been killed (I’m not in a position to be on the killing end of that equation). However, I can point you to the executive summary.

“We don’t know anything about what Iran is doing. Iran is opaque to us. We are deaf, dumb, blind AND stupid when it comes to Iran, the way we were to the nuclear programs of Pakistan, India, North Korea, and Iraq. In every case, we were taken completely by surprise. And that’s the only thing you can ‘take to the bank’ about his report”

The dilemma: We accept as truth the claim that Iran is not building nukes. Then we’re proven wrong and Israel, NYC and DC disappear in a big KA-BOOM.

No matter what the CIA or the “consensus opinion” says, the President must assume that the CIA, et. al., has it wrong, and that Iran is continuing to develop nukes.

Any other posture risks a nuclear Pearl Harbor or nuclear 9/11 scenario. There are millions of lives at stake. and it is beyond irresponsible to not prepare as if Iran is, in fact, arming itself with nuclear weapons, unless we can prove beyond a shadow of doubt tht they have finally and totally given up nuclear weapons.

For those disposed to disbelieve or reject this NIE, it would be well to remember that if a consensus about something this vital to our security was found among such a fractious, quarrelling, multi-agenda driven group of spooks, you can bet the information it’s based on is pretty solid.

I understand the need for regime change in Iran. I am not naive enough to believe that the Iranian government doesn’t represent a threat to our friends, allies, and interests in the region – nukes or no nukes. But this Administration has made a nasty habit for 7 years now of employing rhetoric on national security matters that doesn’t match what the situation actually is.

How incredible! How incredibly convenient! It seems the National Intelligence Estimate has been declassified and guess what – NIE Report: Iran Halted Nuclear Weapons Program Years Ago.

ABC News’ Martha Raddatz, Jonathan Karl, Luis Ma…

First, the NIE cites new intel. The only intel that might be available could have been from documents Israelis spirited out of the Syrian target site.

Second, that target site may have been an assembly site for nuclear weapons. Iran’s program is currently geared toward weapons-fuel production. There was an obvious synergy here. Moreover, if Iran does develop enough fissionable uranium (rather than plutonium), then assembling a fission bomb is a comparatively low-tech operation.

Third, this NIE could have been written for domestic consumption. The brief may simply be another way of saying that Bush will leave Iran for his successor to deal with.

chsw

Dusty on December 3, 2007 at 4:32 PM

by making the point that any development program eventually reaches the stage where your next step is to actually build whatever it is you are developing. In other words, you work on your bomb design, and if you reach the point where the next step is building one, and you don’t have the ‘stuff’ to build it with, then your development waits until you have the stuff you need to continue.

Once Iran has the weapons grade enriched uranium, there isn’t anything that prevents them from restarting their bomb development.

This NIE also points out that Iran really did have a bomb development program.

IF they stopped their Nuke program in 2003… then why do we keep getting reports of more and more centrifuges?

Didn’t they just announce they had 3000 working full time now?

Also of note, the pooh-poohing of current covert efforts, when past covert efforts were acknowledged, sure smells like what was said about North Korea between 1994 and 2002.

U.S. intelligence report contradicts Bush on Iran nuclear program

It links to this Reuters story
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071203/ts_nm/iran_usa_dc

Which has a slightly different, but basically still the same headline:

Report contradicts Bush on Iran nuclear program

America built its first two Atomic bombs in FOUR YEARS with 1940s technology… without knowing how to do it, or even if it was possible…

I think we are blinded by our own technology.

They don’t have to build a small nuke… they could build somthing large and build it INTO an Aircraft… or ship… it does NOT have to be missle delivered. Crap… build it into a 747… or a merchent ship…

Because of the cold war we think in terms of massive strikes with a quick total destruction of entire countries… but it would only take a couple of nukes to flatten Israel… or one of our cities…

Remember, these folks are NOT reasonable… MAD will not work with people who WANT to end the world so the next Prophet will come.