Shock polls: Huckabee leads in Iowa, Rudy craters in South Carolina; Update: Falwell family endorses Huckabee
posted at 12:12 pm on November 28, 2007 by Allahpundit
Send to a Friend |
printer-friendly
Imagine if Huck had money. Actually, if this keeps up, you won’t have to imagine:
[T]he trend is unmistakable—Huckabee has gone up and just about everybody else has gone down. Huckabee’s 28% support represents a twelve point increase from a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted earlier in the month. Romney is down four points while Giuliani and Thompson are each down three points from the previous survey. John McCain is down two points and earns just 4% support. Ron Paul picked up a point and is now at the 5% level.
Forty-eight percent (48%) of Evangelical Christians support Hucakbee. That’s more than all the other candidates combined. Romney attracts 16% of the Evangelical vote.
Remember, he’s doing this without the benefit of any big evangelical endorsements. Might be time to re-read this post. As for Rudy, South Carolina’s not a state he was expected to win but the fact that he’s been in the hunt was taken as proof that he could put even social-con states in play. Oh well:
The [SC] poll shows Romney in the lead among Republicans with 17 percent – up from his fourth-place, 11 percent finish in the same poll in August. Fred Thompson is in second place at 15 percent, down from his first-place, 19 percent showing in August. Mike Huckabee is in third with 13 percent, well up from his fifth-place six percent in August. John McCain is in fourth place with 11 percent, down from his third-place 15 percent in August. And Rudy Giuliani – who was virtually tied with Thompson for first place with 18 percent in August – is in fifth place with nine percent in the new poll. Giuliani’s nine-percentage-point drop is the biggest in the field. Finally, Ron Paul is in sixth place with six percent – up from one percent in August.
All of those numbers are smaller than the 28 percent who say they are undecided.
Rich Lowry thinks this is less a function of social-con disaffection with Rudy than with the fact that he’s getting killed in advertising, but it’s hard not to hear the Dean Scream when you look at those numbers. He’s still doing gangbusters business in Florida, where the number of delegates vis-a-vis Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and SC will leave him in decent shape for Big Tuesday even if it’s the only early primary he wins (especially if Mitt and Huck split the other four somehow). But even if he takes it, and New York and California too, how does he win the nomination if he can’t win in the south? That’s what this poll suggests. We’ll know soon enough if it’s an outlier.
Update: Don’t forget, Huckabee’s surging in Rudy country too.
Update: Scratch what I said about Huck having no major evangelical endorsements. The Falwells just jumped aboard. Floodgates opening?
Governor Huckabee is not the first presidential candidate to visit the Liberty campus. He is the apparent choice for the Falwell family though. After watching the former Arkansas governor praise Christian values, promote a pro-life agenda, and reinforce the importance of traditional marriage, we asked Jerry Falwell Junior, is Mike Huckabee your choice for President? Without hesitation, he told us he is.
Update (Bryan): Slublog pointed me over to this statement on Huckabee’s website. It’s Rev. Rick Warren all but endorsing Huckabee.
“I know most of the candidates running for president but I’ve known Mike Huckabee the longest, since we did our graduate degrees together in the late 70s. Mike’s a man of vision, compassion, and integrity. I’ve watched his uncanny ability to identify with normal people in ways that many leaders don’t. That’s probably why TIME named him one of the five best governors in America. He’s definitely presidential material. But honestly, what I find most appealing is his self-deprecating humor. That’s a key sign of a spiritually and emotionally healthy leader - someone who is comfortable with himself, is authentic, doesn’t wear a mask, and is secure enough to be humble. People love that.”
I’m not a fan, but Warren is among the most influential pastors in the world via his Purpose-Driven industry. He’s probably the single most influential pastor in the US, much more influential these days than Pat Robertson or anyone else (though Joel Osteen might give him a run). As near-endorsements go, this one was huge yet didn’t make a splash when Warren offered it around the beginning of November. Fwiw.
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: « 1 [2]
Other than South New York, nee Florida, that is, which he wouldn’t win in November.
steveegg on November 28, 2007 at 12:51 PM
I was under the impression that Hunter was spending too much time in Washington, trying to get work done, instead of campaigning - at least that was my thinking on it. I don’t know if that’s correct, but it seemed that way to me.
Nice post you did, by the way. I would just add that it’s not only the MSM that is ignoring Hunter; he gets very little press on the most of the blogs, too.
Well, there’s still time … :fingers crossed:
progressoverpeace on November 28, 2007 at 12:52 PM
Oh, I have no doubt of it. And the median household income in that state is only $35,000. So Huckabee was not only raising taxes, he was raising them on people who in many cases could not afford the lost income.
Slublog on November 28, 2007 at 12:52 PM
Also the Dick Morris article forgot that some of us took Math in College
First Morris the mathmetician compared 1993 to Today for the country against only 1998 to 2006 for Huckabee
Also left off Hucks 2007 whopping 27 billion dollar budget - that 10,000 for every man woman and child in Arkansas
Thats alot of spending - its more than Rudy’s 22 billion budget for three times the people in New York and that place ain’t cheap
Astonishing
EricPWJohnson on November 28, 2007 at 12:53 PM
China may not be the devil, but she is good at putting nations to sleep in her slow, multi-decades long march towards economic and military superiority.
captivated_dem on November 28, 2007 at 12:53 PM
I just stood 3 feet behind Huckabee and Jerry Falwell, Jr. during the interview where Jerry Jr. endorsed him for president. I got to shake his hand as well. He was very well received by the Liberty students, and answered every question posed to him by either reporters or students very quickly and without equivocation.
acleaver on November 28, 2007 at 12:53 PM
What he said.
MB4 on November 28, 2007 at 12:54 PM
No Republican will win either NY or CA. If you believe Rudy will, you are kidding yourself. The other states Huckabee has as much of a chance at as any other Republican.
Face it, it is a weak field. . . that’s why anything can happen.
ThackerAgency on November 28, 2007 at 12:54 PM
What Morris says doesn’t make him a fiscal Conservative. Lowering some taxes while simultaneously begging the legislature for more doesn’t mean he’s great on taxes. He also:
Cato gave him a D. Cigarette taxes were up 103%. The number of state workers increased by 20%. State spending increased 65.3%.
amerpundit on November 28, 2007 at 12:56 PM
Slublog
And living in Tulsa and being active throughout the region in the Lutheran church - I learned that Arkansas is a place where affordable retirement homes for the elderly - heavy n veterans and ther spouses were dotted throughout the state.
Hucky baby raised 2,000 dollars per year per person on the veterans
What a guy
then lied about it and got nailed by factcheck.org and Salon and others
EricPWJohnson on November 28, 2007 at 12:56 PM
Rudy does not have a chance in States that have a large percentage of outdoorsman. His gun control dreams are a show stopper. Rudy relates to uptown French pastry crowd much better.
saiga on November 28, 2007 at 12:56 PM
Sales of the Total Home Fitness gym are going through the roof. Maybe Huck gets a cut.
Give Huck some time in the Front Runner barrel. My guess is he is peaking too soon.
sulla on November 28, 2007 at 12:57 PM
Thats raised 2,000 dollars in new taxes (a bed fee) per person
Tried first to say its only 5.25 a day (2,000 sounds harsh doesn’t it)
If they have a debate before the Iowa Caucus - Hucks a dead duck
EricPWJohnson on November 28, 2007 at 12:58 PM
I doubt it. Huck does exceptionally well in debates.
As for the three-legged stool analogy, if I had to give up a leg of the stool it would be the social leg. Even though I am conservative in all three areas (economy, security, social issues), I vote for federal office holders based on economic and security issues first. I basically don’t think the federal government has any business whatsoever sticking its nose into 99.9% of social issues.
aero on November 28, 2007 at 1:01 PM
Agree with this totally - but bring in some additional conservative moderators. Would love to see Republican debates moderated by people such as Michelle, Rush, Laura Ingraham, and so forth, instead of by the usual, lame, mainstream media moderators.
Real conservative moderators could expose Huckabee for the nanny-stater/immigration fraudster that he truly is.
C’mon, Michelle/HotAir - make it happen.
thirteen28 on November 28, 2007 at 1:05 PM
Time is flying though. If Huck (or any of the other top guys) implodes somehow there will be a lot of folks who take another look into the 2nd tier of candidates. It isn’t too late. I hope Vanceone is right.
MT on November 28, 2007 at 1:11 PM
Let’s get rid of this little chestnut, as well.
Huckabee and the state government were not given a mandate to tax, they were given a mandate to fund. Huckabee and the legislature could have found the money elsewhere in the budget, but instead took the easy way out and created a tax.
Here in Maine, the state government was given a similar mandate by a voter referendum - voters demanded the state pick up a greater portion of school funding. Our Democratic governor responded by finding the money elsewhere in the budget. He could have imposed a new tax to generate revenue, but he did not.
Huckabee could have made a similar choice, and did not.
Slublog on November 28, 2007 at 1:17 PM
I believe more then one Republican candidate might be sharpening their Huckabee cuttin’ knife for this debate. I wonder which one is going to be slicin’ and dicin’ with the most precision? Now’s the time they need to put him down for good and expose him for the nanny stater he is.
Zetterson on November 28, 2007 at 1:21 PM
GOP will lose next fall unless it can reunite the Reagan-Bush coalition
In the midst of a shaky economy and an unpopular war, it is nothing short of astonishing that the Republican Party’s contenders run neck-and-neck with Democrats in test matchups. But the GOP is going to lose next fall if it cannot reunify the three pieces of its conservative base: evangelicals, libertarians and hawks.
MB4 on November 28, 2007 at 1:37 PM
I just love seeing the cry of “liberal!” for Huckabee, a guy who is far more of a principled conservative than any of the other top-tier candidates. He’s a candidate who can build a real ruling coalition instead of getting mired in partisan bickering like Dubya.
I’m beginning to think the “money-con” and libertarian crowd is scared of Huckabee because he actually cares about issues like helping the working poor get a leg up in this courty, or treating kids of illegals who themselves have committed no crime with a modicum of respect. I’m afraid some of anti-GOP accusations of the left are really coming to the forefront now in the attacks against Huckabee, and it ain’t pretty. But I’m confident he can weather the storm and grab a big win in Iowa.
Jared White on November 28, 2007 at 1:38 PM
Jared, if you are representitive of the typical Huckabee supporter I fear for our country if he wins. I think I might prefer Hillary. We’ve fought them before.
That may have been the most disturbing post I’ve ever read on this site.
Zetterson on November 28, 2007 at 1:42 PM
Huckabee Tries to Gloss Over Ark. Record
LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (AP) - Mike Huckabee’s presidential rivals are pointing to chinks in his record as Arkansas’ governor - from ethics complaints to tax increases to illegal immigration and his support for releasing a rapist who was later convicted of killing a Missouri woman.
*
During his tenure, Huckabee accepted 314 gifts valued overall at more than $150,000, according to documents filed with the Arkansas secretary of state’s office. (He accepted 187 gifts in his first three years as governor but was not required to report their value.)
*
Huckabee’s recent strong stand on immigration, including an intolerance toward companies that employ illegal immigrants, runs counter to the image he crafted in his final years in office. He was battling conservatives within his own party who were pushing for stricter state-level immigration measures.
MB4 on November 28, 2007 at 1:44 PM
When Huckabee took office, the total state and local tax burden on families in Arkansas was 10.1%. When he left office, it was 11.3%. Combine that with the federal tax burden, and you have a good chunk of money taken out of the paychecks of people who need to pay the bills. The average household income in Arkansas is only $35,000. How is lowering the standard of living in his state “helping the working poor?”
Excessive taxation means more families in which both parents have to work, leading to parents spending less time with their children. You can opine all you wish about “money cons,” but there are real, social implications to excessive taxation on families.
Slublog on November 28, 2007 at 1:48 PM
It’s disturbing that here in IA we’re flooded with Romney ads (which are outnumbered 3-1 by dem ads) and he trails Huck, who I haven’t seen any ads for.
However, I still doubt Huck has the name recognition to win IA. Maybe that’s just the part of IA I’m in; everyone here seems to be into Romney, if they aren’t just ambivalent. I’m not going to get too worried yet.
But one good thing can come from this — the other candidates can go after him in the debate and make sure there is no real Huck surge.
brak on November 28, 2007 at 1:49 PM
If that isn’t a dead giveaway, I don’t know what is.
thirteen28 on November 28, 2007 at 1:51 PM
Sorry went to lunch but yeah that was kind of the point.
bj1126 on November 28, 2007 at 2:08 PM
I don’t believe Rudy can win New York, but I think he can force the Democrat to work in New York instead of accepting it as a gimme.
Why three months? Viability outside the womb?
Esthier on November 28, 2007 at 2:27 PM
When do we get Michelle as moderator of a GOP debate?
Speakup on November 28, 2007 at 2:42 PM
What I take from this thread: Huckabee might just be the next President.
All I know for sure about him is that he - or someone in his staff - is playing the public and the media almost perfectly. Sincere or not, it’s downright Rovian. (Anybody know what Karl’s been up to lately?)
A few days back some conservatives here were railing on about feeling excluded by Huckabee’s “Christian leader” message, and I pointed out the obvious: while that may be true, a lot of recently apathetic evangelicals are feeling awfully included now.
It’s brilliant primary politics. Whether you or I like it or not. I can’t even think of an unlikelier electoral surge in recent memory. With Fred! fading, Rudy under fire, McCain gone, Paul loony, and Mitt now competing for those evangelical votes - Huckabee just might pull it off.
Or it might be a flash in the pan. I’d bet on flash in the pan, myself. I think the nomination has been Rudy’s for the taking since 2001.
But here’s the interesting part: a lot of you make interesting criticisms about Huckabee. Most of them fair criticisms.
But if he wins the primary, you’ll vote for him. Or you’ll stay home (don’t do it, please … but you might). Not one of you is going to vote for Hillary.
But those very same things you don’t like about Huckabee - especially on issues of taxation and nanny-statism - may make him a better general election candidate. No John Edwards liberal is going to vote for Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson. If your criticisms are right - if he’s really no conservative - he could draw a few percentage points from the other side. Socially conservative but fiscally liberal democrats - and there are a lot of them - might like Huckabee.
Shorter version: after reading this thread, if I was advising Hillary Clinton - I’d tell her to be worried about Mike Huckabee.
Very worried.
Professor Blather on November 28, 2007 at 3:29 PM
I think every good Christian ought to kick Falwell right in the ass.
- Barry Goldwater
MB4 on November 28, 2007 at 3:29 PM
He would be slaughtered in the general election.
MB4 on November 28, 2007 at 3:32 PM
Brain function. If it is earlier or later, then I would decrease or increase the three months.
MB4 on November 28, 2007 at 3:34 PM
Which, of course, was said effusively and repeatedly about Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush … and which is all too often still being said about Hillary Clinton.
We’ll see how sharp your crystal ball is if it gets that far.
For me personally, this comment from Slublog at Ace’s place is reason enough not to vote for him:
Me no likee. I’m far too libertarian and far too fond of federalism to be pleased with that. Those opposing Huckabee could do worse than to use Slublog’s analysis.
Then again, like I said above - the very thing that pushes me away from Huckabee might make him more popular than the other candidates with those on the other side. There are a lot of folks - we call them Democrats - who might really dig Huckabee’s ideas as noted above. Would his theology negate that appeal? Maybe.
He’s so far doing a pretty brilliant job of playing both sides. But its a dangerous game. One misstep and he’s done.
A federal anti-smoking ban? (shudder) Sheesh.
Professor Blather on November 28, 2007 at 3:39 PM
Any function or just thought process?
Either way that’s an interesting position. I normally hear the viability one.
Esthier on November 28, 2007 at 5:17 PM
I don’t see him as being appreciably different from Hillary. Take a look at Hillary’s voting record before, say, a year ago, as well as her stated positions prior to that: Supported 3-strikes, increased police funding, NAFTA, voted to keep Cuba embargo, voted yes to criticize China’s human rights record, voted yes on the Patriot Act on its reauthorization.
Yeah, she’s Hillary, but he’s Huck, and I’m not a social conservative. He’s not a fiscal conservative, and neither is she. I don’t see her as being appreciably different from Bill, and the sky didn’t fall when he was in office. Hill vs Huck, I may sit it out. Depending on what I see, hell I could vote for her, esp if she is doing that hot aide of hers, Ms. Abedin, like people are speculating.
RW Wacko on November 28, 2007 at 5:33 PM
I just find it all really hard to believe. Are yo sure that someone isn’t ‘cooking’ the the polls even more than usual?
It is beyond me why anyone would want to give Huckabee power; The more I get to know about him, the less I can support him. Seems like for ANYONE of ANY political persuasion, for every one thing you like about him, there are three things that would make you run screaming into the arms of any of the other candidates.
LegendHasIt on November 28, 2007 at 5:54 PM
Rick Warren? He just signed on to a big old apology letter.
Headline:
Christian leaders ask Muslims for forgiveness
Summary:
Pardon me while I regurgitate…
If he wants Rick Warren’s endorsement, then Huckabee has to answer for this too.
Right?
Buy Danish on November 28, 2007 at 6:00 PM
The Democrats must be cooking the polls to make this moron, Huckabee, a front runner.This guy has the personality of 3-day- old finger sandwiches. In a two-person election this guy would come in third-even if his opponent was Dennis Kucinich.
MaiDee on November 28, 2007 at 6:09 PM
Huck the huckster. Tax us, big government. And he is a minister…which always gets me. It was Jesus who said you can’t serve two masters.
He is either a politician or a minister…can’t be both. Unless he thinks Jesus was kidding.
right2bright on November 28, 2007 at 6:57 PM
I respectfully disagree. His engaging personality is what lures them in.
Buy Danish on November 28, 2007 at 7:01 PM
Any to speak of. Better to error on the side of caution.
“I think (even if a little), therefor I am (even if a little).”
Actually the viability one never has held much weight for me. Lots of people are not viable witout medical, even extreme, intervention.
Like Cheney or Snow or Edwards wife.
Lots of adults are not viable without medical intervention.
MB4 on November 28, 2007 at 7:35 PM
Pat Robertson endorses Rudy.
Falwell Family endorses Huckabee.
Countdown to the skewing of the story into the idea that evangelical Christians are at with war with one another this political season…..ten…..nine…..eight…….
highhopes on November 28, 2007 at 10:06 PM
We are screwed. Screwed I say, if we nominate Huck
Dudley Smith on November 28, 2007 at 11:17 PM
That has been my prediction for quite a while now. No one gets a victory on the first ballot, which will release the delegates. The top candidates will make some deals, and then on the second, maybe even the third ballot, the nominee will be selected. When he names his VP, we will find out what deal(s) were struck.
Texas Nick 77 on November 29, 2007 at 6:04 AM
Comment pages: « 1 [2]