Polls: Huck (almost) catches Mitt in Iowa, coming on strong in South Carolina
posted at 10:05 am on November 21, 2007 by Allahpundit
All he needs now is some of James Dobson’s hot air and this balloon’s ready to soar. The evangelicals have probably been holding back because they don’t know if he’s for real. This ought to assuage them. As should this:
Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson are tied for the lead in South Carolina’s Republican Presidential Primary.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds both men earning 21% of the vote from Likely Primary Voters. That’s a big change from September when Thompson was on top with support from 24% and Romney trailed the frontrunner by nine percentage points…
Trailing the two leaders are Rudy Giuliani at 13%, Mike Huckabee at 12%, John McCain at 9%, and Ron Paul at 8%. Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter each earn support from 2% while 13% are undecided (see crosstabs).
Those numbers reflect a seven-point drop for Giuliani, a nine-point gain for Huckabee, little change for McCain, and a six-point jump for Paul.
How do you suppose Huckabee, a native southern son, will do in SC if he surprises in Iowa and picks up a big evangelical endorsement or two?
Not-so-minor detail in all this: If Rasmussen’s right, Mitt now leads in three of the four big early primaries — the exception, ironically, being the state his pops governed.
Blowback
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Well, it’s still Mitt 21-12 over Huck. I wouldn’t quite say that’s Huck “almost” catching Mitt anymore than Ron Paul is.
Vizzini on November 21, 2007 at 10:13 AM
Oh, gotcha. Just saw the other link. And yes, I think that qualifies.
Vizzini on November 21, 2007 at 10:15 AM
Man it is getting close.
Rudy’s loss seem to be Huckabee’s gain. That huge percentage of people that were not familiar with Rudy seems to have gotten familiar with him and like what they hear from Huckabeee.
Huckabee I do not hink is going to take the nomination. I thought he would make a good VP but looking forward could he win the general in 2012 or 2016? Probably not. We need a General for VP.
Theworldisnotenough on November 21, 2007 at 10:20 AM
Please make this nanny stater vanish
Zetterson on November 21, 2007 at 10:20 AM
Great- then when Huck wins- we can ALL have sanctuary cities! Yeah.
Ex-tex on November 21, 2007 at 10:21 AM
@Ex-tex…exactly! I’m not sure why any Republican would support someone even more liberal than Rudy.
davenp35 on November 21, 2007 at 10:26 AM
I think that the white evangelical vote can be split. While the Human Life Amendment is going to sway some, illegal immigration is going to sway many as well. The question is what is the ratio of evangelicals that are either pro HLA or pro enforcement. Hucakbee is filthy when it comes to illegal aliens. That’s is to Fred’s advantage. A few press releases about Huckabee’s being in bed with Tyson to violate our border with cheap labor and Huck’s got a big stumbling block in his way.
Theworldisnotenough on November 21, 2007 at 10:29 AM
I’m not sure he’s more so than Rudy, but I’m not seeing the benefit of Tax Hike Mike over Rudy.
amerpundit on November 21, 2007 at 10:30 AM
Huckabee talks the lingo of a regular guy that happens to be fairly sharp and fairly fast on his feet. He uses references like there are no “Bean Bag” politics in Arkansas, or they don’t shoot at a carcass.
A lot of rural folks feel he can relate to them more than a city slicker like Rudy or Mitt.
saiga on November 21, 2007 at 10:31 AM
I have to admit – I really, really wouldn’t mind if some of the top-tier candidates lost and ended up with something like a Huckabee-Richardson general election.
Professor Blather on November 21, 2007 at 10:31 AM
Rats! I’ll have to pick this up later. I’m driving down to Salt Lake City to pick up my sons fiancé. She’s coming to meet us and spend Thanksgiving.
I wonder who will attack Huck first? Rudy or Mitt? I think Mitt, but the wise thing to do is let Rudy do it, because Mitt wont be able to beat Huck in a social con argument.
csdeven on November 21, 2007 at 10:33 AM
I don’t like Huck. I just don’t. Anyone that amnestyish is bad news. His tax-raising doesn’t help. I think we’d lose big to whoever if he were the Rep nominee.
Of course, the nine point gain for Huck isn’t the real news. It’s the six-point jump for Ron!!!!
Darksean on November 21, 2007 at 10:37 AM
nominating huck takes illegal immigration off the table as a good issue for the republicans. not sure why they’d want him elected.
lorien1973 on November 21, 2007 at 10:46 AM
I guess its all a matter of perception. To me Huck doesnt sound like any regular guy I know. He sounds more like some sort of Baptist minister preaching to the choir.
Oh… wait !!!!!!
Always Right on November 21, 2007 at 10:46 AM
Want to read more about Huck? Check out this column from Jonah Goldberg in yesterday’s LATimes. Don’t let the title fool you, it’s mostly about Huck.
Money shot:
If you are tired of Bush’s brand of “conservatism”, then voting for Huck is only going to make things worse.
Don’t go there.
thirteen28 on November 21, 2007 at 10:48 AM
I’d feel more comfortable with Huckabee than Rudy. Huckabee maybe a little softer on taxes but isn’t a gun grabber and I think learned a little from his amnesty goofs in the past. He’s had all the right answers recently on that.
bj1126 on November 21, 2007 at 10:49 AM
So it’s okay for him to flip-flop what could be the biggest issue of the coming election because he’s not a gun-grabber?
Slublog on November 21, 2007 at 10:51 AM
Huckabee strikes me as being simply the most recent refuge for Repub voters who disapprove of the frontrunners, a la Thompson a few months ago. He is comparatively an unknown to people, other than having heard his name tossed about here and there amidst the Rudy/Mitt/(and recently)Fred coverage.
Huckabee suffers from the dual debilitating afflictions of RINO-itis (repugnant to conservatives) and Christianist moralism (repugnant to many Christians and non-Christians alike). While one could conceivably level the RINO (or perhaps CINO) charge at aspects of Giuliani, Romney, and, yes, even Thompson, all three have had to make a firm defense of or commitment to governing in accordance with conservative principles. Giuliani and Romney have especially had to do so, given their backgrounds, and I think have answered those appropriate criticisms effectively.
Huckabee, however, has not yet had his record and core principles scrutinized under the hot, harsh lights that accompany a rise in popularity. And, frankly, I think that once he is more closely and critically inspected much of the support he is enjoying these last few weeks from disaffected Repubs who are disappointed with the Big Four (but think Ron Paul is too weird) will fade away.
I would be interested to see a demographic breakdown of Huckabee’s recent support, as I have a gut feeling that his rise is an attempt by one-issue abortion voters and Christian social-con’s (ahem…Chuck) to find “God’s candidate,” rather than the best candidate.
God doesn’t care about candidates, folks. He cares about the conduct of His people (2 Chron. 7:14).
Harpazo on November 21, 2007 at 10:55 AM
As opposed to Mitt who has flip flopped on almost every issue and Rudy who hasn’t flip flopped at all just doesn’t care about illegals as long as they aren’t committing violent crimes?
bj1126 on November 21, 2007 at 10:59 AM
So is flip-flopping okay or not? Romney and Giuliani have (deservedly) taken a lot of heat for their convenient changing of positions.
Why does Huckabee get a pass? Remember, he felt so strongly about providing benefits to illegal immigrants that he accused his opponents of being “un-Christian.”
Slublog on November 21, 2007 at 11:02 AM
Screw ‘em all. I say we start a Draft Leonidas campaign!
Darksean on November 21, 2007 at 11:11 AM
Compared to my core beliefs, Huck is the worst of everything rolled into one. Conservative on social issues, liberal on economic issues. Plus he’s a nanny-stater, a climate alarmist and for open borders.
His administration as Gov was also rife with corruption. other than that, he’s okay. I’d probably vote for Hillary over Huck. I’m actually serious about that.
RW Wacko on November 21, 2007 at 11:12 AM
I guess this is why we have primaries. After being all over the map, I came to believe it should be Mitt about the same time as everyone else. I was high on Huck, too, until the facts began to inconveniently drift into the picture.
Jaibones on November 21, 2007 at 11:14 AM
Huckabee offered ‘no-cost’ deal for Mexican Consulate
Valiant on November 21, 2007 at 11:15 AM
The bigger question is, why is he not given one while the others are? Why is Rudy’s absolute refusal to say that being here illegal a crime not being pressed harder?
From his website:
http://www.mikehuckabee.com/index.cfm?FuseAction=Issues.View&Issue_id=4
bj1126 on November 21, 2007 at 11:18 AM
I’ve gravitated toward Mitt, too, Jailbones, and you are right, this why we have primaries. At the beginning, I hated Mitt more than anything. Ya know, b/c of the whole Manchurian candidate feel. I just have to trust he will stay true to his rhetoric on immigration while in office. If he could do that, I think he would make a fine president.
RW Wacko on November 21, 2007 at 11:18 AM
Fred is uninspiring. Rudy seems sleazy and I don’t want the cronyism of the Dubya years to continue. I also don’t trust Rudy one bit on immigration. I hate Huck for every reason imaginable. I like McCain, but he’s eight years past his prime, and again, don’t trust him on immigration. That leaves Mitt, and I’d be happy with that.
Anyone but Huck, though, PLEASE.
RW Wacko on November 21, 2007 at 11:22 AM
Conservatives who focus most heavily on social issues seem willing to throw us under the bus fiscally and security-wise for the sake of a couple of pet social issues. Scary stuff.
aero on November 21, 2007 at 11:38 AM
If Huck wins, people will stop cheating on each other, divorces will end, and gays will join our team. His disastrous positions on job creation, immigration, climate change and personal liberties, however, have no chance of affecting the day-to-day lives of ordinary Americans. Go Huck!
RW Wacko on November 21, 2007 at 11:49 AM
You’re starting to really live up the wacko part.
bj1126 on November 21, 2007 at 11:53 AM
looks like folks are just ready for some good, down home nanny-statism.
its vintage duh on November 21, 2007 at 12:01 PM
Yes, those are statements on his website. Plastic fantastic.
His record on those same issues speaks for itself, and he has yet to explain the epiphany that turned him from a pro-illegal immigration booster as governor into a hardcore anti-illegals candidate. You keep deflecting with questions about what the other candidates believe. This is about Huckabee, not Romney or Giuliani.
You are giving Huckabee a pass on his atrocious record despite the fact that he’s done nothing to explain his sudden change of heart. Why?
Slublog on November 21, 2007 at 12:01 PM
Yeah, just what I need, a choice between Nanny Huck and Nanny Hill…blah.
Bad Candy on November 21, 2007 at 12:21 PM
Because I’ve heard him in person explain his views. I have no reason to believe he is lying just like I don’t have any reason to believe Mitt or Rudy are lying. There’s plenty to take issue with Huckabee over. I just think you should address real issues with his candidacy not hold him to a different standard you hold other candidates. No candidate will be perfect.
The thing that is encouraging to me is that with ALL of our top candidates they are in line on the major issues. I wouldn’t be distressed or despondent if either Thompson, Mitt, Rudy, or Huckabee got the nomination. Rudy is softer on immigration than I’d like but when he says he’d secure the border I absolutely believe him so either way its a step up from where we are now. Truth be told I’m leaning toward Mitt right now for my Florida primary vote but I’m very much undecided. Huckabee impressed me a lot and Thompson has disappointed me greatly.
What I don’t think is productive is smearing one of our own candidates with false accusations. Yes his record isn’t the best, but my whole point in this thread is that neither are any of the other candidates. I’m a firm believer in learning from your mistakes. It’s clear for whatever reason that Huckabee considers his past stance on immigration a mistake.
bj1126 on November 21, 2007 at 1:26 PM
What has been said about Huckabee that is false? He raised taxes, he raised spending, he supported giving illegal immigrants tuition breaks at taxpayer-funded universities, he supports a nationwide smoking ban.
As this video shows, Huckabee is still trying to justify his plan that would have offered in-state tuition to illegal immigrants.
Slublog on November 21, 2007 at 1:41 PM
The Politico gives a decent roundup of his ethics mess.
Valiant on November 21, 2007 at 2:06 PM
I understand your point with that video but I also see where Huckabee is coming from on that issue. It just highlights to me the fact that the illegal immigrant problem is best handled through border enforcement and cracking down on those hiring them here. If the child’s parents didn’t have a job waiting for them they wouldn’t be bringing the kid here in the first place.
bj1126 on November 21, 2007 at 2:32 PM
That Chuck Norris ad has really paid off for Huck…
It’s still a very fluid race, with several weeks to go. Howard Dean was “inevitable” around now in 2004, but his not-that-bad Iowa performance and the subsequent barbaric-yawp that buried him show how quickly that can change. And heck, Bubba’s “comeback kid” narrative turned relatively disappointing early results in NH into a hell-blessed miracle.
The slate should be narrowed to two or three survivors by the time my state gets to vote. My guess is it’ll come down to Rudy McRomney. but I’m willing to be surprised.
sulla on November 21, 2007 at 2:34 PM
Those are more substantial and valid issues for him to address at least on some level. Most of that stuff seems to have settled in his favor with minor crap being held against him.
bj1126 on November 21, 2007 at 2:39 PM
I’m with you. Huckabee is Bush all over again. He’s a social conservative, but a big government liberal on everything else. DO NOT WANT.
bigbeas on November 21, 2007 at 3:09 PM
Hmmmmm Romney/Hunter….. is it possible?
MNDavenotPC on November 21, 2007 at 4:19 PM