The Michigan polls are useless this year. Two factors that nobody is talking about will cause a lot of trouble for Romney in the state. First, it is an open primary, meaning that any voter eligible to vote in the general election can vote in the (R) primary this year. Second, most of the major Democratic candidates have pulled out of their own primary, and will not contest the state. I expect that the Republican primary electorate in Michigan will end up being more moderate than all of the pollsters currently think is “likely”.

Big S on November 22, 2007 at 2:33 AM

If that is the case, I suspect the result of the Republican primary there will be a Rudy win.

Just wait until there is a huge convention center full of Anti-abortion and pro-gun right people gathered at the GOP convention, and there’re going to vote for Rudy? No way, even if the press and New York media want it that way.

Well, if Rudy wins enough of the primaries, that convention center will be full of people like me, i.e., delegates committed to voting for him.

Is it possible that we’d change our minds? Sure. It’s also possible that the pope that might become a Protestant. But in neither case would I bet on it. :)

I’m still amazed that such horrible candidates as Rudy, Mitt and McCain populate front-runner spots.

Hollowpoint on November 21, 2007 at 6:22 PM

Ditto. The MSM seems tickled with this too.

Rudy is not going to cut the enemy even a millimeter of slack. The Democrat candidate, whoever it is, will have won the nomination by outbidding their opponents’ in a race to surrender.

Exit question: which Giuliani running mate would best balance the ticket so that social conservatives are energized in November?

Neocon Peg on November 21, 2007 at 11:18 PM

I totally agree. I’m an evangelical Christian but I’d vote for Fred before the Huckster anyday. He’s our “it” guy as far as I’m concerned.

I just sent Fred a letter with another $100. He’ll be the nominee. Just wait until there is a huge convention center full of Anti-abortion and pro-gun right people gathered at the GOP convention, and there’re going to vote for Rudy? No way, even if the press and New York media want it that way.

No. The delegates will vote how their state voted. But I still like Fred and have major problems with the other candidates. I’ll send him some money too and maybe we can get Fred nominated the old fashioned way… by voting for him.

IA and NH are now a month before Super Tuesday; will any bump in support from wins there be sustained all the way to Feb 5th? Neither Rudy or Romney are going to come close to sweeping the early states, and between Huckster in IA and Fred in SC, there’s a possibility of a 3-way split for the early states.

Might the early states be much less significant this election than in past ones? I don’t know.

As Mike Huckabee gains ground on his rivals for the Republican nomination, opponents have quietly begun highlighting the slew of ethics issues the social conservative faced during his political career in Arkansas.

Conservatives better regroup and get behind Mitt NOW. Fred is toast now that Huck is surging (gag). If Huck keeps getting attention, he’s eventually gonna start hurting Mitt BAD, and that can only help Rudy.

RW Wacko on November 21, 2007 at 5:27 PM

Screw that- I’d stay home either way.

Fred has lost a lot of ground, but it’s still too soon to declare him dead just yet- wounded, but not dead. I suspect that most people are only just starting to pay attention, and there are still a lot of undecideds out there along with people who don’t know that much about the records of the candidates.

I’m staying anti-RINO Rudy, anti-FlipFlop Mitt, anti-Huckster, anti-Maverick McCain. Fred needs a big push if he’s to pull himself out of his current hole, but stranger things have happened in primary elections.

I’m still amazed that such horrible candidates as Rudy, Mitt and McCain populate front-runner spots.

In any event, as an aside, he mentioned that the conservative baby-boomers will be represented in the general election by either Mitt or Rudy. So, old Rushbo has narrowed the race to either Mitt or Rudy. Sorry Fred.

tommylotto on November 21, 2007 at 5:55 PM

Did he mention who he thought older and younger conservatives favored?

In the Republican race, Giuliani widened his lead over Thompson to 14 points, 29 percent to 15 percent, compared to last month’s 28 percent to 20 percent lead.

That’s not exactly what Rasmussen (11-15/11-18) says.

Giuliani 24%
Thompson 14%
Romney 14%

So Michigan becomes something close to a must-win for both Rudy and Romney by having its primary so close to the first two.

Michigan is a must win for Mitt but not Rudy. If Rudy can win Michigan (Mitt’s family’s Michigan), it will deprive Mitt of any momentum going into the next set of primaries. Rudy will maintain his lead in FL and win. Then he’ll have the momentum going into 2/5 where he already has big leads in the big states. Even if Michigan goes to Mitt, it just gives him momentum. Will that momentum be enough to overcome Rudy’s 17 point lead in FL, I doubt it. Rudy will win FL, get back on his feet and go into 2/5 strong. Either way, on 2/6 Rudy will be the delegate leader.

Did any of you hear Rush this morning. He was talkin about the election. Mostly about the Dems. He says Obama should pull out the “pass the torch” generational rhetoric, saying its time to move past the baby-boomer generation. In any event, as an aside, he mentioned that the conservative baby-boomers will be represented in the general election by either Mitt or Rudy. So, old Rushbo has narrowed the race to either Mitt or Rudy. Sorry Fred.

Obama ain’t got a prayer…..neither do we unless one of our candidates puts on camos and starts carrying an M203.

The Marxist Pig will get the nomination; and, with her Machiavellian ways, Obama will be her VP.

OhEssYouCowboys on November 21, 2007 at 4:41 PM

I’ve been predicting this for years — well, months, anyway — but I really hope I’m wrong.