Poll: Clinton drops 10 points against Obama, Rudy extends lead on Fred Update: NH, MI primaries set
posted at 4:36 pm on November 21, 2007 by Bryan
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It’s one poll and it’s Zogby, but it can’t be anything but a headache for the Clinton campaign.
The 2008 Democratic presidential race has tightened, with Barack Obama gaining on front-runner Hillary Clinton six weeks before the first contest, according to a national Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday…
The 2008 Democratic presidential race has tightened, with Barack Obama gaining on front-runner Hillary Clinton six weeks before the first contest, according to a national Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.
The poll was taken Nov 14-17, so it does take a couple of days after the Nevada debate into account. If that debate was seen as a truly strong performance on Clinton’s part, she may widen that gap back out again.
As for the GOP side, it’s still Rudy.
In the Republican race, Giuliani widened his lead over Thompson to 14 points, 29 percent to 15 percent, compared to last month’s 28 percent to 20 percent lead.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee jumped over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney into third place. Huckabee had 11 percent, with Romney and Arizona Sen. John McCain at 9 percent.
A growing number of Republicans, 21 percent, said they have not made up their mind, leaving room for more changes in the field. The shifting numbers, after months of a relatively static race, could indicate voters around the country are beginning to pay attention to the 2008 race, Zogby said.
“There is a real fluidity to both races,” he said.
In Iowa, one of the two races that matter most right now, that ABC poll that Allah discussed earlier in the week had Obama leaping up to pass Clinton (though within the poll’s margin of error) with Edwards dropping to third. But, that’s just one poll. The RealClearPolitics averages still have Clinton up by 19 points nationally over Obama and leading in Iowa by a deuce, more or less. And she’s way up in New Hampshire. Romney still leads in both, while he’s third nationally.
Taken together, Hillary’s bad weeks don’t spell defeat for her yet, but it might be time to chip away at the first two letters in “inevitable.” Obama can catch her and if there’s momentum on the Dem side it’s probably with him. On the GOP side, it’s a complete scramble as Giuliani, Thompson, Romney, McCain and Huckabee are all running wildly differing strategies that treat the early primaries in entirely different ways. While the national polls say the money should be on Giuliani at this point, Romney’s leads in the early states and Huckabee’s recent surge plus the fact that 21% of GOP voters haven’t made up their mind (and that number is on the uptick according to Zogby) tell me that just about anything is still possible.
Update: Well, like I said, anything is possible. Iowa’s primary is Jan 3. Now, New Hampshire’s will take place on January 6 and Michigan has been cleared to go on the 15th. The first three primaries in the space of 12 days.
Update: Checking the most recent Michigan polls (Nov 15), Clinton is up by 31 on the Dem side and Giuliani is up by 3 on the GOP side (within the margin of error). So Clinton and Romney could both sweep the first three on their respective sides, putting both in very strong positions. But, if Giuliani maintains his lead and takes Michigan from Romney, then I have to think that that makes Rudy’s position going into the next round of primaries stronger than Romney even if Romney wins both Iowa and New Hampshire. So Michigan becomes something close to a must-win for both Rudy and Romney by having its primary so close to the first two.
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To paraphrase - there are lies, damned lies and then there are polls.
The Marxist Pig will get the nomination; and, with her Machiavellian ways, Obama will be her VP.
OhEssYouCowboys on November 21, 2007 at 4:41 PM
And this is before Opra hits the campaign trail.
bnelson44 on November 21, 2007 at 4:42 PM
I just sent Fred a letter with another $100. He’ll be the nominee. Just wait until there is a huge convention center full of Anti-abortion and pro-gun right people gathered at the GOP convention, and there’re going to vote for Rudy? No way, even if the press and New York media want it that way.
AZCON on November 21, 2007 at 4:45 PM
I don’t see Romney in the top three.
Rose on November 21, 2007 at 4:52 PM
Not that I am a big supporter of his, but how is it that Romney is down in the cellar with McVain. I have always thought that he performs well in debates and on the campain trail, not to metion all the cash he spends on ads.
I just don’t understand why he polls so low.
conservnut on November 21, 2007 at 5:02 PM
incredibly stupid question alert:
are the D and R primaries on the same day? Or are they held separately?
lorien1973 on November 21, 2007 at 5:02 PM
Was it Zogby that predicted Kerry winning by 50 electoral votes or something?
amerpundit on November 21, 2007 at 5:03 PM
Late August in Denver for Ds. GOP in Minn 4 days later on 9/1-9/4.
AZCON on November 21, 2007 at 5:04 PM
Iirc, yeah. That’s among the reasons that I’m paying more attention to the averages. They haven’t swung like Zogby has.
Bryan on November 21, 2007 at 5:06 PM
RE: Update; Mitt will have a really good 1st 2 weeks in January, it looks like with IA, NH, and MI. That will be great for him going into Super Tuesday. But, as the national poling seems to indicate, his support is soft in the rest of the country except UT, IL, MO, and maybe AZ (heavily LDS states).
AZCON on November 21, 2007 at 5:09 PM
I’ve been predicting this for years — well, months, anyway — but I really hope I’m wrong.
Attila (Pillage Idiot) on November 21, 2007 at 5:10 PM
RCP’s click count should be through the roof between now and mid Jan…..I live for this!
Obama ain’t got a prayer…..neither do we unless one of our candidates puts on camos and starts carrying an M203.
Limerick on November 21, 2007 at 5:13 PM
Conservatives better regroup and get behind Mitt NOW. Fred is toast now that Huck is surging (gag). If Huck keeps getting attention, he’s eventually gonna start hurting Mitt BAD, and that can only help Rudy.
RW Wacko on November 21, 2007 at 5:27 PM
The serial exaggerator still fooling otherwise smart individuals?
Gregor on November 21, 2007 at 5:38 PM
I’m staying with Fred.
Rose on November 21, 2007 at 5:47 PM
Michigan is a must win for Mitt but not Rudy. If Rudy can win Michigan (Mitt’s family’s Michigan), it will deprive Mitt of any momentum going into the next set of primaries. Rudy will maintain his lead in FL and win. Then he’ll have the momentum going into 2/5 where he already has big leads in the big states. Even if Michigan goes to Mitt, it just gives him momentum. Will that momentum be enough to overcome Rudy’s 17 point lead in FL, I doubt it. Rudy will win FL, get back on his feet and go into 2/5 strong. Either way, on 2/6 Rudy will be the delegate leader.
Did any of you hear Rush this morning. He was talkin about the election. Mostly about the Dems. He says Obama should pull out the “pass the torch” generational rhetoric, saying its time to move past the baby-boomer generation. In any event, as an aside, he mentioned that the conservative baby-boomers will be represented in the general election by either Mitt or Rudy. So, old Rushbo has narrowed the race to either Mitt or Rudy. Sorry Fred.
tommylotto on November 21, 2007 at 5:55 PM
That’s not exactly what Rasmussen (11-15/11-18) says.
Giuliani 24%
Thompson 14%
Romney 14%
MB4 on November 21, 2007 at 6:02 PM
Did he mention who he thought older and younger conservatives favored?
JiangxiDad on November 21, 2007 at 6:15 PM
Screw that- I’d stay home either way.
Fred has lost a lot of ground, but it’s still too soon to declare him dead just yet- wounded, but not dead. I suspect that most people are only just starting to pay attention, and there are still a lot of undecideds out there along with people who don’t know that much about the records of the candidates.
I’m staying anti-RINO Rudy, anti-FlipFlop Mitt, anti-Huckster, anti-Maverick McCain. Fred needs a big push if he’s to pull himself out of his current hole, but stranger things have happened in primary elections.
I’m still amazed that such horrible candidates as Rudy, Mitt and McCain populate front-runner spots.
Hollowpoint on November 21, 2007 at 6:22 PM
Rudy, the most powerful Don EVAH!
ThackerAgency on November 21, 2007 at 6:31 PM
Huckabee rivals unearth ethics complaints
As Mike Huckabee gains ground on his rivals for the Republican nomination, opponents have quietly begun highlighting the slew of ethics issues the social conservative faced during his political career in Arkansas.
MB4 on November 21, 2007 at 6:33 PM
I thought maybe Huckabee might be a good choice until I heard more about him. My husband mentioned that he was moving up and might be a good choice until I told him what I had read. I think the more Christians hear about him the less support he will have.
Rose on November 21, 2007 at 6:41 PM
The unanswered question- how will the earlier primary dates for IA, NH, MI and FL affect their significance?
IA and NH are now a month before Super Tuesday; will any bump in support from wins there be sustained all the way to Feb 5th? Neither Rudy or Romney are going to come close to sweeping the early states, and between Huckster in IA and Fred in SC, there’s a possibility of a 3-way split for the early states.
Might the early states be much less significant this election than in past ones? I don’t know.
Hollowpoint on November 21, 2007 at 6:55 PM
No. The delegates will vote how their state voted. But I still like Fred and have major problems with the other candidates. I’ll send him some money too and maybe we can get Fred nominated the old fashioned way… by voting for him.
bigbeas on November 21, 2007 at 10:41 PM
Voting for Huckabee is like voting for Bush. You will get the same BS. He is so soft on the border to make it seem insignificant - he will welcome all illegals because his “religion” demands he must. Look at his illegal record. He actually screams out at at his legislature to give illegals more rights! He wants illegals to have more rights than US citizens! (which they mostly do anyway) I like this guy on everything but the illegal problem. He is not the answer, nor is Rudy who approves sanctuary cities.
Neocon Peg on November 21, 2007 at 11:18 PM
I totally agree. I’m an evangelical Christian but I’d vote for Fred before the Huckster anyday. He’s our “it” guy as far as I’m concerned.
Mojave Mark on November 22, 2007 at 12:18 AM
The Michigan polls are useless this year. Two factors that nobody is talking about will cause a lot of trouble for Romney in the state. First, it is an open primary, meaning that any voter eligible to vote in the general election can vote in the (R) primary this year. Second, most of the major Democratic candidates have pulled out of their own primary, and will not contest the state. I expect that the Republican primary electorate in Michigan will end up being more moderate than all of the pollsters currently think is “likely”.
Big S on November 22, 2007 at 2:33 AM
Vote your conscience in the primaries, but the General Election is going to come down to one issue and one issue alone: national security and the terrorists’ War On Us.
Rudy is not going to cut the enemy even a millimeter of slack. The Democrat candidate, whoever it is, will have won the nomination by outbidding their opponents’ in a race to surrender.
Exit question: which Giuliani running mate would best balance the ticket so that social conservatives are energized in November?
LagunaDave on November 22, 2007 at 7:49 AM
Huckabee is sucking the life out of Romney. I predicted a Giuliani/Huckabee ticket many, many moons ago. I wish I could find the thread!
SouthernGent on November 23, 2007 at 1:09 AM
Ditto. The MSM seems tickled with this too.
Texas Nick 77 on November 23, 2007 at 4:00 AM
AZCON, supra:
Well, if Rudy wins enough of the primaries, that convention center will be full of people like me, i.e., delegates committed to voting for him.
Is it possible that we’d change our minds? Sure. It’s also possible that the pope that might become a Protestant. But in neither case would I bet on it. :)
paul006 on November 23, 2007 at 4:01 AM
If that is the case, I suspect the result of the Republican primary there will be a Rudy win.
Texas Nick 77 on November 23, 2007 at 4:06 AM
Looks like Fred is done for.
Ortzinator on November 23, 2007 at 10:51 AM