Powell: Iran is far from building nukes
posted at 8:45 am on November 20, 2007 by Bryan
Hm. The evidence suggests that Iran is at the brink of industrial scale nuclear production. But former Secretary of State Colin Powell said Iran is far from producing a nuclear weapon during a speech in Kuwait Sunday.
Iran is far from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and despite U.S. fears about its atomic intentions, an American military strike against the Islamic Republic is unlikely, former Secretary of State Colin Powell said Sunday.
Tehran rejects claims by the United States and some European Union countries that its nuclear program is aimed at secretly producing weapons, insisting it is for peaceful purposes only.
“I think Iran is a long way from having anything that could be anything like a nuclear weapon,” said Powell, who was invited by the National Bank of Kuwait to speak on economic opportunity and crisis in the Middle East.
A US strike on Iran probably is unlikely, but is it useful for Powell to tell them that? Is Powell’s comment evidence that what John Bolton calls the “George C. Marshall legacy project” is still under construction?
Bolton attributes Powell’s 2004 gambit on Iran to what he caustically calls the “George C. Marshall Legacy Project,” which he said involved “distancing Powell from Bush.” Bolton, as the administration’s chief arms control official, was critical of efforts by Britain, France and Germany (the “EU-3″) to forge a deal with Iran.
He believed that Tehran used the talks only to build up its nuclear capability. The administration was also openly skeptical, so he says he was shocked to learn that Powell, at a Sept. 22, 2004, dinner with “Group of Eight” foreign ministers, agreed that Iran should be given a package of “carrots.”
Bolton says he got a vague response from Powell when he asked about it, but he soon saw a European reporting cable on the meal and a Canadian letter that confirmed Powell’s proposal. In what Bolton described as the most difficult three weeks of his tenure in the administration, he says he used every possible bureaucratic and diplomatic maneuver to kill Powell’s plan.
“Powell had violated our long-standing Iran policy, colluded with the EU-3 against it and come out nearly endorsing [Sen. John F.] Kerry’s position only weeks before our election,” Bolton writes. “Along with others, I had foiled Powell’s legacy gambit. I knew it, and he knew I knew it.”
It would be nice to know what Powell is basing his “nothing to see here” comments on. It could be the IAEA and Mohamed ElBaradei. He is due to report on Iran’s nuclear progress on Nov 22. Perhaps Powell was given a sneak peak at ElBaradei’s upcoming report.









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This guy is turning into Jimmy Carter.
BTW…you’d think he’d be quiet on the matter of who has WMDs or not. Actually, now that he is saying there is no threat, the left will believe him.
kcluva on November 20, 2007 at 8:49 AM
Unfortunately, it seems Powell gave no thought to keeping Iran ‘far from producing a nuclear weapon.’
James on November 20, 2007 at 8:49 AM
Well we know that Iran has 3,000 centrifuges because they told us that. What we have no evidence of, that I have seen, is that Iran can run 1,000 or so of them in a cascade for any length of time to make HEU. Until they can to that they can’t make a nuke.
bnelson44 on November 20, 2007 at 8:50 AM
ElBaradei is a stooge. His report is useless. Powell is dangerous because he’s obviously after the big speaking fees and his words still carry some weight– but diminishing daily.
JiangxiDad on November 20, 2007 at 9:02 AM
Here’s a simple question: If Iran has 3,000 centrifuges spinning to enrich uranium and tens of thousands more under development all to produce peaceful fuel, where are the reactors they are being developed to supply?
To the best I can determine, Iran does not have a single operating commercial nuclear power plant, and the number of centrifuges seems to dwarf their fuel processing needs for their civilian program.
Iran’s own stated cascades are the best evidence of a budding nuclear weapons program. There simply is no other reason to build this many centrifuges unless nuclear warheads are the specific goal.
Powell, I’m sad to say, has been compromised by politics.
Bob Owens on November 20, 2007 at 9:05 AM
As far as I’m concerned, Powell’s credibility is about on a par with the credibility of Hans Blix, the Sweedish Meatball.
Always Right on November 20, 2007 at 9:09 AM
Iran’s 3,000 centrifuges are confirmed. It’s only a matter of time before they perfect the process of enrichment of weapons grade plutonium, if they haven’t already. Powell, in his own small way, may be buying Iran more time. (whether he realizes it or not) His comments will shape public opinion and that could end up being very dangerous for the world.
Ordinary1 on November 20, 2007 at 9:12 AM
I don’t think so. He is simply stating what most people know. Until they can get 1K or so running in a cascade for a considerable time, they can’t make HEU. Once they do, they have about 8 months before they have enough HEU for one bomb. It could be as much as 5 years out for them.
bnelson44 on November 20, 2007 at 9:16 AM
I used to like Colin Powell.
pullingmyhairout on November 20, 2007 at 9:18 AM
It appears that Powell has entered that diplomatic place where the elder statesmen becomes a world citizen, outgrows his country of origin, melds into the fantasy of world harmony and sips deeply the same haughty political nectar that made one solid masse of the skull of Mr. Peanut.
Fair thee well, sir. All is well.
Hening on November 20, 2007 at 9:21 AM
I hope you are right. But if they are further along…
Powell’s comments are counter-productive. Either we are serious about stopping Iran from getting a nuke, or it’s don’t worry be happy. Don’t worry be happy is the path to mushroom clouds.
Ordinary1 on November 20, 2007 at 9:21 AM
I gotta disagree with the last part, Pops. I suspect that his words will carry enormous weight with left side people who write really, really big checks.
Jaibones on November 20, 2007 at 9:25 AM
OK…but after that 5 years, then what? Does that coincide with our timetable for Iran to have a nuke? The whole ‘they’re X years away’ argument is academic…and stupid to use as a policy statement as long as they keep working on it.
James on November 20, 2007 at 9:27 AM
same here :(
trailortrash on November 20, 2007 at 9:29 AM
How would Colin Powell know this?
Kevin M on November 20, 2007 at 9:30 AM
As a retired soldier of a certain age, I respect GEN Powell a great deal. His speech on Veterans Day at the Wall was memorable, and I was privileged to have been there.
That said, I worry that his time in Foggy Bottom has warped his view. Listening to State Dept. lifers day after day for a couple of years can do that to anyone, I guess. Sad.
Longhorn Six on November 20, 2007 at 9:33 AM
If someone could resolve the reasons Iran is attempting to enrich I would feel much better. To date no one seems to want to do that. The nuclear reactor that Iran has for energy was built by the Russians (I’m assuming it is complete or near complete).
The Russians were to provide the fuel and then remove the waste. So why does Iran need to enrich their own? If it is for energy, you can be up and running in no time with the Russians help. And let’s face it, its cheaper to buy the stuff than to set up the infrastructure to mine it and then enrich it. Something about comparitive advantage and all.
So, if it is truly for energy, you are the dumbest people on earth. If it’s for weapons, you are going to get bombed.
sunny on November 20, 2007 at 9:38 AM
The leaders of Iran have said time and time again they will destroy us as soon as they gain the capability. Do we really need any other information?
Griz on November 20, 2007 at 9:39 AM
So Powell tells us Iraq has stockpiles of WMDs. They don’t. Now he tells us Iran is far from having nukes? His track record suggests that Iran is about to go nuclear.
Sue on November 20, 2007 at 9:50 AM
Powell’s credibility has long since been destroyed . . . he has become an insignificant figure in history and should stop while he’s ahead.
rplat on November 20, 2007 at 9:51 AM
Exactly how is Colin Powell supposed to know how far Iran has progressed in their nuclear program?
desertdweller on November 20, 2007 at 9:53 AM
I don’t know what Powell knows or doesn’t know, but has ElBaredei ever found a nuclear program? Ever?
MayBee on November 20, 2007 at 10:06 AM
Two Problems:
A) We Can’t Wait Until Iran Actually Has a Nuke
B) The IAEA report said two things. The first that Iran was generally cooperative (they turned in one report). But it’s the second that’s important. The IAEA says it knows less and less about Iran’s atomic works as time goes by. Where will that be in 5 years?
amerpundit on November 20, 2007 at 10:14 AM
Hey Colin, pop by the vid store wouldja please and pick up a copy of “The Heroes of Telemark” with Kirk Douglas and Richard Harris…
max1 on November 20, 2007 at 10:14 AM
You’re right again Always Right!!
OBX Pete on November 20, 2007 at 10:18 AM
I don’t know how far along Iran is in the process…But I do know that we managed to go from scratch to enough fissile material for two bombs in about three years…And we had to do all the math. They started out with the math all done and with a lot more capability and equipment than the North Koreans. Once you get the centrifuges up and running it’s only a matter of time…tick…tick…tick…BOOM.
Oldnuke on November 20, 2007 at 10:20 AM
Powell ain’t half the man Tommy Franks is.
TheSitRep on November 20, 2007 at 10:27 AM
George Bush will be on the lecture circuit soon. He might sing a diff. song to those rich Arabs so anxious to part with their money.
JiangxiDad on November 20, 2007 at 10:32 AM
Powell is right though. Even if they vamped up their production to the point where they could get those centrifuges spinning continuously, it’d still take them a couple of years to enrich the uranium to the 93% weapons grade quality.
If building a nuke is like baking a cake, Iran is still in the supermarket shopping for flour and eggs.
John from OPFOR on November 20, 2007 at 10:52 AM
Colin (his name’s a clue) Powell loves the sound of his own voice.
The man’s resume has been inflated since he was 10 years old.
Retire “Colin” – and make that your legacy.
jake-the-goose on November 20, 2007 at 11:02 AM
Yup. And how long did the Manhattan Project take? And they were trying to do it for the first time without the aid of the internet. Heck, I could make one in a weekend if I had resources that Iran does.
- The Cat
MirCat on November 20, 2007 at 11:14 AM
That’s _great_ news! Now we can put the ball down and maybe pick it up later when Powell et al decide that Iran is “on the brink of producing nukes”. Then we can perform an all-American save-ass Just In Time.
F’ing awesome.
Ochlan on November 20, 2007 at 11:19 AM
Will somebody, anybody pull the security clearances of these hacks?
MNDavenotPC on November 20, 2007 at 11:28 AM
If Colin Powell says so, that’s good enough for me; he’s almost Ron Paulian in his Absolute Conservative Authority.
Kensington on November 20, 2007 at 11:35 AM
How long did it take N. Korea to come up with a nuclear bomb and they’re a starving destitute country that can’t even feed or warm its own people? I have a feeling that Tehran and Moscow will move much faster in Iran.
I used to like Powell too and even worse I used to believe him.
Buzzy on November 20, 2007 at 11:36 AM
Obviously, you are all wrong, Iran wants to be oil dependent in ten years, then they can give the oil to us. All of those centrifuges are for building nuclear power plants, making them energy efficient, and the first “green” country. They are doing this for us.
You are all such cynics…you have to trust Colin Powell, look into my eyes, you must trust Colin Powell, he is your friend, he knows more than anyone else…trust…trust…believe…now drink this sweet nectar, drink and live forever…
right2bright on November 20, 2007 at 11:58 AM
Ron Paul for Prez, Colin Powell for Veep, Napoleon for Emperor.
saved on November 20, 2007 at 12:04 PM
speaking of respect… it’s the man who lost all of my respect, I would have made you my president sir, now I wouldn’t make you coffee.
Kaptain Amerika on November 20, 2007 at 12:26 PM
No I am sorry he is not. As
quite correctly pointed out, it doesn’t take years, it only takes months. You are making the false assumption that Iran would try to jump several steps in the progression from basic atomic weapon to sophisticated hydrogen weapon. This is a fatal assumption to make.
The Manhattan project started with nothing and produced three atomic bombs in three years, and that starting with a theory so full of holes that they didn’t even know if the bomb would work until trinity actually detonated.
The gun style device only requires about 20 to 25 kg, of U235, the Iranian Zippe-type P2 centrifuges are far more efficient than those used by the Manhattan project, hence require far less time to produce the required fissile material.
Iran does not need multiple devices or for their device to be in the Mt range, all they need is a device of similar yield to Little boy. A single 15kt device detonated over Tel Aviv and it’s over.
doriangrey on November 20, 2007 at 12:43 PM
Let’s all sing…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IERzx5Spic
MikeHu on November 20, 2007 at 1:01 PM
As i recall, the Little Boy bomb was exploded at a rather high altitude. The Iranians would have some trouble getting a plane from there over Isreal without a contest.
saiga on November 20, 2007 at 1:20 PM
When did I say that?
No offense my friend, but it sounds like you’re spitballing, drawing conclusions from a basic “what does it take to build a nuke” google search.
Meanwhile, I actually work with these things. They’ve got a ways to go.
John from OPFOR on November 20, 2007 at 1:36 PM
“…and his words still carry some weight but dhimminishing daily.”
There. Fixed it.
MrC_5150 on November 20, 2007 at 1:39 PM
Think Shehab-4/-5/-6…
doriangrey on November 20, 2007 at 1:43 PM
ORLY?
Protect our money General Powell. – Kuwait
OK. Iran far from a nuclear weapon. – Powell
Can we use your word to justify our vote at the UN? – Kuwait
Ummm. That might be a problem. – Powell
gabriel sutherland on November 20, 2007 at 1:47 PM
I’m a former Health Physics technician, worked at San Onfre in 1979 and 1980, plus five years of college physics. So no, I’m not exactly spit balling it, I do have somewhat of a background in nuclear physics.
doriangrey on November 20, 2007 at 1:54 PM
One other comment Powell made at the conference.
Whoops. Don’t report that wisdom.
gabriel sutherland on November 20, 2007 at 1:54 PM
Powell is as liberal as they come and always has been, which is why he and Bush didn’t get along. Now that he has everyone convinced that he was coerced into addressing the UN about WMD’s in Iraq (isn’t hindsight a convenient thing?), he takes every opportunity to discredit the Bush administration and counter every bit of foreign policy. It’s how he keeps his lecture circuit alive to go rally the nutroots.
He was worthless as a General (much the same as Wesley) and even more so now!
stacman on November 20, 2007 at 1:59 PM
In the sense that they’re building them in Syria, right?
TexasDan on November 20, 2007 at 2:05 PM
Will he bet his life on it?
Vanquisher on November 20, 2007 at 2:08 PM
Nope, but he’s more than happy to bet Israel’s existence on it, and by extension your’s and mine.
doriangrey on November 20, 2007 at 2:13 PM
So he’s been there, eh?
4shoes on November 20, 2007 at 2:19 PM
Good ‘ol enlisted/OCS Oklahoma boy v. ROTC New Yawk perfumed prince.
No contest.
MB4 on November 20, 2007 at 3:31 PM
No!
Iran is far from Terre Haute, Indiana.
Iran is building Nukes.
TheSitRep on November 20, 2007 at 5:57 PM
Well that settles it. As ye of all thy latest intel and spy photos hath spoken.
Teddy on November 20, 2007 at 6:38 PM
I used to like Powell too and even worse I used to believe him.
Buzzy on November 20, 2007 at 11:36 AM
I have two words for all you believers: Affirmative action.
SIJ6141 on November 20, 2007 at 6:50 PM