Huckabee second in new Iowa poll, surprising Drudge and pretty much no one else
posted at 7:03 pm on November 13, 2007 by Allahpundit
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Well, Ace is surprised too so I guess it’s mildly surprising. It shouldn’t be, though: he’s been second in the two most recent state polls and was within seven of Mitt (while in third place, a point behind Fred) as far back as a month ago in the Rasmussen survey. According to CBS/NYT via Drudge, we stand now at Mitt 27, Huck 21, Rudy 15, and Fred, who needs a good showing, at a dismal 9. Like I said yesterday, Mitt’s financial advantage is so great that he can probably buy his way to victory — unless the evangelicals start coming out for Huckabee. Dobson said last week that he doesn’t plan on endorsing anytime soon, but I wonder if that’ll change if Huckabee’s within striking distance on New Year’s Day.
Assuming Huck takes second, that leaves Fred as the third-place social con also-ran two weeks before must-have South Carolina. I don’t know where it leaves Rudy; I guess he can shrug off finishing third by saying it’s a socially conservative state, but going from frontrunner to the bronze in his first primary will have him smelling like Howard Dean.
If you’re still trying to make up your mind about Huck, here’s a positive review for you to chew on and a very negative one. Advantage: Chuck?
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Next you’re going to tell me that Hillary leads Huckabee in New York City.
amerpundit on November 13, 2007 at 7:08 PM
What the heck is going on? Hillary’s tanking, Romney’s up… my predictions are falling apart! I’m always right, I don’t really understand how this could happen.
I’ve been saying that it was going to be Rudy vs. Hillary (with Obama as VP), and that Rudy would win (based on what I see as Hillary’s insurmountable negative numbers).
Now, Hillary has been losing ground, and further, it seems that the divide between her and Obama is becoming to uncivil for them to run as a team. At the same time, the important primary states seem to be leaning way away from Giuliani… and if the “experts” are right about how much momentum out of Iowa and New Hampshire mean, then he’s got an uphill battle.
RightWinged on November 13, 2007 at 7:09 PM
I don’t think Fred ever worried about Iowa. Dean won Iowa, lost the nomination. I think Fred can still pull it off. Time will tell.
CrimsonFisted on November 13, 2007 at 7:10 PM
God, please don’t let Nanny Huck be the nom.
Bad Candy on November 13, 2007 at 7:10 PM
I see Ron Paul is up to 8% in NH, wonder if he will break into double digits there?
bnelson44 on November 13, 2007 at 7:11 PM
Huck has largely been under the radar as far as scrutiny has been involved; at this point one can only guess what will happen when the long knives come out for him concerning his fiscal and immigration record.
Hollowpoint on November 13, 2007 at 7:13 PM
Romney/Huckabee?
I’m serious. If Romney wins the nomination, he’ll need to pick someone beloved by the evangelicals to calm their fears. Huckabee seems the perfect choice for that.
I think if either Giuliani or Romney win the nomination, they’ll go with Huckster for their veep.
Darn it.
Slublog on November 13, 2007 at 7:13 PM
Thompson/Hunter for me. Giuliani - Sec of State.
CrimsonFisted on November 13, 2007 at 7:14 PM
Yup. Adding a link for emphasis.
Some highlights:
By the end of his ten-year tenure, Governor Huckabee was responsible for a 37% higher sales tax in Arkansas, 16% higher motor fuel taxes, and 103% higher cigarette taxes according to Americans for Tax Reform (01/07/07), garnering a lifetime grade of D from the free-market Cato Institute
Under Governor Huckabee’s watch, state spending increased a whopping 65.3% from 1996 to 2004, three times the rate of inflation (Americans for Tax Reform 01/07/07). The number of state government workers rose 20% during his tenure (Arkansas Leader 04/15/06), and the state’s general obligation debt shot up by almost $1 billion, according to Americans for Tax Reform.
Slublog on November 13, 2007 at 7:15 PM
Don’t underestimate the ability of Hillary to bounce back. She’s hardly out.
And Not-President John McCain won New Hampshire in 2000.
amerpundit on November 13, 2007 at 7:17 PM
I could be wrong, but I don’t believe Dean won Iowa… he had steam going in, lost to Kerry, and gave the “I have a scream” speech, if I recall.
RightWinged on November 13, 2007 at 7:17 PM
I don’t agree with Hunter’s protectionist bent, but other than that, I like it.
Bad Candy on November 13, 2007 at 7:17 PM
Indeed, Kerry did win Iowa in ‘04.
McCain won NH in 2000, though.
amerpundit on November 13, 2007 at 7:18 PM
I’m definitely not counting her out… and because I’m always right, I still believe she’ll be their nominee, I’m just shocked at the struggle she seems to be having. This is a one shot deal for her, and her entire life has been about this. The Clinton machine will make certain she wins the nomination, which makes me semi-serious when I joke that Obama better “watch his back”.
RightWinged on November 13, 2007 at 7:22 PM
I’m with you, this is craaaaazzzzy. Looks like I better choose Hunter, I couldn’t be more wrong than I have been.
Hunter/Tancredo…gooooooo
right2bright on November 13, 2007 at 7:22 PM
That stinging video of Huck praising taxes is too much for most conservatives. He may fit with Romney because he likes fees and taxes, but Huck is too lax on fiscal, and way off on immigration…at least Romney is a born again immigration man (this week).
Rudy/Romney…you have the strength, tempered with some social issues that are palatable. Sets Romney up for the big run in 4 or 8 years. His (Mitt) agenda will be set and known by then, he will be able to work off his flip-flop tag by then, and the “national mormon” concept will be old hat. And maybe, just maybe, Mitt will learn to be a conservative man. Rudy will be more apt to walk the “better” social value line.
right2bright on November 13, 2007 at 7:29 PM
Well, count me in with those surprised. I thought he would make it in the top tier, but not this strong.
Weight of Glory on November 13, 2007 at 7:34 PM
the scary thing about NH, is the “Independents” can choose which primary to vote in. So the anti-war libs, and libs who want to cause Repub. problems can vote for Paul.
jp on November 13, 2007 at 7:34 PM
I would have an easier time supporting John McCain than Mike Huckabee. Please, let the narrow minded social cons not destroy our chances in 08…
Patriot33 on November 13, 2007 at 7:36 PM
Its a tie for me now.
Bad Candy on November 13, 2007 at 7:47 PM
This is an election, not a microwave dinner. You are right, PLENTY of time.
Gatordoug on November 13, 2007 at 7:49 PM
Thompson/Hunter! GREAT ticket! Giuliani I would not care for in any capacity frankly.
Gatordoug on November 13, 2007 at 7:51 PM
I think you are right, I read somewhere that 44% of the people who support Ron Paul in NH identify themselves as liberals. The rest are probably that 8% of the GOP that want to impeach Dick Cheney. If you look at the poll internal numbers, in IA 75% of republicans approve of President Bush while in NH only 55% approve. Also in NH a larger number of republicans/likely voters want their candidate to be less conservative than bush(NH-22%/IA-12%). Its mainly antiwar liberals and libertarians voting for the candidate that is most invested in surrender in Iraq.
Complete7 on November 13, 2007 at 7:52 PM
I had the chance to spend an hour listening and talking with Rep. Hunter last month. He is for fair trade, not “free trade” with unfair rules. Best example: after the UK and one other country got exemptions for VAT for trade agreements years ago, most other countries installed VAT, which is an unfair advantage against all countries (like us!) that don’t have it. (UK exporters don’t charge VAT on exports to US, but US exporters have no comparative tax to deduct.)
The U.S. agreed to that part of the current trade agreement, and are stuck with it unless we withdraw from it or add our own VAT.
In summary, he wants an equal playing field, and that includes China not having an artificially devalued currency against our dollar.
fred5678 on November 13, 2007 at 7:58 PM
You know, I think you are probably right! Thanks for the correction.
I am still with Fred! and I really like Duncan Hunter. He just isn’t getting the traction.
CrimsonFisted on November 13, 2007 at 8:00 PM
I always hear that, but every time I’ve heard him talk on trade, he’s a little hamfisted.
Bad Candy on November 13, 2007 at 8:02 PM
Did Tom Tancredo secretly implant a microchip in Huckabee’s head?
Among other things:
The Governor opposes and will not tolerate employers who hire illegals. They must be punished with fines and penalties so large that they will see it is not worth the risk.
This from the man who basically said that anyone who does not roll out the red carpet for illegals is un-American and un-Christian.
Has someone been messin’ with his web site?
MB4 on November 13, 2007 at 8:03 PM
The question then becomes - If Guiliani is the nominee, are you staying home, giving a default vote for Hillary?
RightWinged on November 13, 2007 at 8:07 PM
I’m giving up on Republicans being rational in any way- Hillary has driven too many into a collective state of irrationality. If a pro-choice, anti-gun, pro-illegal immigrant RINO like Rudy can be the front-runner, there’s simply no predicting which of Huckabee’s faults they’d also be willing to overlook.
Hollowpoint on November 13, 2007 at 8:07 PM
Of course not! I will hold my nose and vote for Rudy. Of course living in Texas it will not really matter, Hillary cannot win here. But no, I will vote,
Gatordoug on November 13, 2007 at 8:09 PM
Sad but true!
Gatordoug on November 13, 2007 at 8:23 PM
That’s the problem with sound bites and debate format for all candidates.
I had the luxury of listening to a 1/2 hour talk, then a 45 minute Q and A, then 1/2 hour with only 10 others in his hotel suite.
I wish I had that time with all the candidates.
fred5678 on November 13, 2007 at 8:27 PM
Glad to hear it! And to be clear, I’m not fan of Rudy either, and I never meant to seem like I was going after you (if it came off like that, at all). It’s just that I hear to many of these people who want to “send a message” by not voting, which is about the most retarded thing I can imagine. I’m just trying to get folks to think about what that decision will mean. Bottom line, it only makes things worse.
RightWinged on November 13, 2007 at 8:36 PM
Oh I understand completely. Hillary would be a DISASTER! But I am afraid the “Only Rudy can beat Hillary” nonsense is going to cost us the election. That is the line the media is trying to sell us.
Gatordoug on November 13, 2007 at 9:00 PM
Huckabee is clinton lite.
peacenprosperity on November 13, 2007 at 9:26 PM
Sorry, didn’t have time to read all the comments. I don’t think all of the primaries will give us a Republican candidate and it will come down to the great State of Texas at its primary. Let the fighting begin… 3..2…1… Just think about it - we have a lot a brainy folks here. Texas hasn’t moved its primary as a lot of states have. Just a thought.
Neocon Peg on November 13, 2007 at 9:56 PM
That is another reason to support Fred. He doesn’t need to balance the ticket with Corrupt Huck.
Bill C on November 13, 2007 at 9:59 PM
So, Fraud!heads.
What were you saying about the inevitablity of Fraud!?
I seem to recall me saying that Fraud! Thompson would start out high due solely to newness and star power, and then when people realized he was a lazy, empty, corrupt, johnny-come-lately conservative activist, do-nothing suit he would plummet back to the irrelevance he so richly enjoyed most of his life.
Funny how that seems to be right by all indications.
Anyone for a rousing round of national polls?
Fraud!heads?
No one?
Hello?
BKennedy on November 13, 2007 at 10:00 PM
We are being force-fed that Rudy is the only one who can beat Hillary - I say BS. Why should we listen to the polls or the pollsters like sheep? I am sick of “I like so and so, but can’t support him because only Rudy can beat Hillary…” bullsh*(*t. Rudy is probably the LEAST conservative of all Republicans running! We are being led down a liberal path not only by the media, but by pollsters!
Neocon Peg on November 13, 2007 at 10:03 PM
I would support Huckabee except for his 360 degree turn on illegal immigration. 80% of Americans are against illigal immigration and want to stop and Huckabee is 100% in favor of illegal immigration and encourages it. Other than that, and his corruption problems, Huck is a pretty good guy, for whom I would never vote in a million years!
Neocon Peg on November 13, 2007 at 10:06 PM
Jeesh. Lighten up Francis.
Bill C on November 13, 2007 at 10:06 PM
Lol!
Bill C on November 13, 2007 at 10:10 PM
Geez, no substance, no intellect, no intelligent discussion - just name calling and the usual bs from someone who would do better attacking our liberal opponents than our conservative ones. Yawn.
Neocon Peg on November 13, 2007 at 10:11 PM
You know it! Conservatives DO NOT WIN, when they fail to act like Conservatives!
Gatordoug on November 13, 2007 at 10:23 PM
I’ll guess: just as soon as he’s nominated. Just as the right would love for Hillary to be nominated because she’ll be easier to knock off, the left would love for Huck to get nominated. He’s got a bullseye a mile wide painted on his formerly wide chest.
Splashman on November 13, 2007 at 10:29 PM
Exactly, unfortunately, “conservatives” have lost sight of this. Look at the 06 elections. The “conservatives” ran as “moderates” moving more to the left and lost. They are so out of touch with the American people that they cannot even see that! Conservative views win every time! Ever! Time and time again! Why can’t these so-called Republicans get it? Do they really think that this Country is really moving to the left? No way! Time for them to stop listening to the Lame-stream media and start listening to their constitutients. Moving to the left will lose Republicans elections far into the future. Only getting back to conservative values will they get votes.
Neocon Peg on November 13, 2007 at 10:32 PM
Unfortunately, I think Thompson is done. When he started his campaign, I had some hope he could be a viable conservative candidate. He has disappointed in that regard.
I know there are a couple of months between now and the voting, but if Thompson spends those months doing what he’s done thus far, he will not catch fire as a candidate.
So much potential, so little result. And it’s frustrating.
Slublog on November 13, 2007 at 10:47 PM
Fred Thompson gets it, so do I, this is a key reason I am supporting him.
He released his plans for rebuilding our military today! Good stuff
Gatordoug on November 13, 2007 at 10:50 PM
What is it you want from him?
Gatordoug on November 13, 2007 at 10:50 PM
These plans didn’t include how he would recruit and keep the thousands of new troops. And that is a very valid question which he will dodge till the cows come home.
In other words pie in the sky promises, next up “Fred promises to fill the potholes in NYC in his first hundred hours….”
Bradky on November 13, 2007 at 11:50 PM
More than he’s given. His speeches have been boring, his media appearances have been sparse and he just doesn’t seem to want the job.
My feeling is that if he’s this lackadaisical in the primary, he’s not going to get much better in the general election and that’s where we need someone who can get out there, spread the message and respond quickly to the Democrats.
So far, I haven’t seen evidence that Thompson is going to give us much more than he has. It’s all well and good to say he’s running a different kind of campaign, but let’s face facts - it isn’t working for him.
Slublog on November 14, 2007 at 6:01 AM
His wife wants the prestige and additional paydays of his being a former presidential contender.
peacenprosperity on November 14, 2007 at 7:48 AM