Israeli commandos seized nuke material in Syria before air raid? Update: New details
posted at 9:00 pm on September 22, 2007 by Allahpundit
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Grain of salt: one of the co-authors of this piece once reported that Israel was working on a bioweapon that would affect Arab genes only. He’s on firmer ground with today’s story but when you float something like that it’s part of your record forever. Consider yourselves warned.
Israeli commandos seized nuclear material of North Korean origin during a daring raid on a secret military site in Syria before Israel bombed it this month, according to informed sources in Washington and Jerusalem…
They confirmed that samples taken from Syria for testing had been identified as North Korean. This raised fears that Syria might have joined North Korea and Iran in seeking to acquire nuclear weapons.
Israeli special forces had been gathering intelligence for several months in Syria, according to Israeli sources. They located the nuclear material at a compound near Dayr az-Zwar in the north.
There were rumors of ground forces being involved in the air raid itself but the only intel about nuclear material at the site that I’ve heard of is satellite imagery of northern Syria. It’s suspicious that we’re only hearing about a gun as smoking as this one now, or hearing about it at all, really: if it’s true then the details must be known to a very select few people in the American and Israeli governments, but both governments have taken great pains to avoid talking about the details lest it force Syria into a response and queer the North Korean denuclearization process. So why would some of those select few people choose to leak something as incendiary as this now, after working so hard to suppress the information? The only thing I can think of is that maybe they think Syria’s planning to respond anyway and they want this out there and on the record in case war breaks out and the old doubts about phantom WMDs as a pretext for hostilities resurface.
Exit question: If it’s true, how did the Israelis access what must have been a very closely guarded compound and escape with nuke material without Syria knowing? And if Syria did know, or suspected, that they’d done so, why on earth did they keep shipping material in there instead of moving the nuclear storehouse somewhere else?
Update: More from the Times of London. Not surprisingly they claim it was Sayerat Matkal who carried out the seizure of nuclear material based on a plan by SM vet and current Defense minister Ehud Barak. But some mysteries remain:
But details of the raid are still tantalisingly incomplete. Some analysts in America are perplexed by photographs of a fuel tank said to have been dropped from an Israeli jet on its return journey over Turkey. It appears to be relatively undamaged. Could it have been planted to sow confusion about the route taken by the Israeli F-15I pilots?
More importantly, questions remain about the precise nature of the material seized and about Syria’s intentions. Was Syria hiding North Korean nuclear equipment while Pyongyang prepared for six-party talks aimed at securing an end to its nuclear weapons programme in return for security guarantees and aid? Did Syria want to arm its own Scuds with a nuclear device?
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I wonder how they can identify it as North Korean in the first place?
Egfrow on September 22, 2007 at 9:05 PM
maybe the israelies slipped in the northwest side of the place during morning prayers when all of the t’heads were facing mecca to the southeast.
just a thought.
pk on September 22, 2007 at 9:05 PM
Could have been a post strike insertion. Maybe even from our bases in western Iraq.
Think there might be greater Israeli and US links in this story than before. What if the US tipped off the Israelis about somethig suspect and got them to act ?
William Amos on September 22, 2007 at 9:06 PM
I’m not buying it this time. The man’s a known liar. And the Times isn’t reluctant to print his tripe.
I think they’re just giving him a co-author so people like us won’t remind the world of what a liar Uzi Mahnaimi is.
Meryl Yourish on September 22, 2007 at 9:07 PM
I seem to recall wasnt there some way to identify fissionable material if it came from the same batch ?
William Amos on September 22, 2007 at 9:07 PM
Maybe there are certain characteristics in the nuclear material from the minerals used or the process itself that ID it as NorK?
Bad Candy on September 22, 2007 at 9:09 PM
Every reactor has a fingerprint.
quax1 on September 22, 2007 at 9:12 PM
From wapo a few days ago
On 15 September 2007 Glenn Kessler reported in the Washington Post that American sources said that Israel had recently provided the US with evidence — code named “Orchard” — that the DPRK had been cooperating with Syria on a nuclear facility. “The evidence, said to come primarily from Israel, includes dramatic satellite imagery … The new information, particularly images received in the past 30 days, has been restricted to a few senior officials … ” According to one source for this report, the 06 September 2007 air strike appeared to have been linked to the arrival at the Syrian port of Tartus on 03 September 2007 [three days prior to the strike], of a ship carrying material ["labeled as cement"] from North Korea. According to this source, the target of the attack was a Syrian facility “agricultural research center” located “on the Euphrates River, close to the Turkish border”. Israel had reportedly been monitoring the facility in the belief that Syria was “using it to extract uranium from phosphates” at that location.
“dramatic satellite imagery” – the types of activity associated with nuclear weapons development, particularly at the early stages of the program, are precisely the sorts of things that are not going to produce dramatic satellite imagery, which is why North Korea’s uranium program is so vexing for the United States.
“primarily from Israel” – the reliance on such liasion sourced intelligence that could not be independently verified was one of the central problems with the Iraq WMD intelligence failure, and either evidence is “primarily from Israel” [ie, HUMINT] or it is independtly knowable by the United States based on “dramatic satellite imagery” but it is difficult to comprehend how both statements could be true.
“restricted to a few senior officials” – this part of the story is designed to explain to other reporters why their sources are unable to confirm any of the details of this report
“arrival at the Syrian port of Tartus” – this is not a large facility, and this news story would have us believe that Israeli intelligence has intimate knowledge of unloading activities at this port, a collection capability that was willingly compromised here
“labeled as cement” — cement is normally transported as a bulk powder, and less frequently in recent decades in bags — neither form of transport would usefully conceal nuclear related components, and labeling some other means of transport [eg, standard 40-foot containters] as cement would be so patently false as to immediately draw suspicion to the shipment.
“on the Euphrates River, close to the Turkish border” — the implication, though not over assertion, is that over the course of three days Israeli intelligence was able to track the shipment as it travelled half-way across Syria, or that Israeli surveillance of Syria is so comprehensive that the shipment was detected upon arrival — either of which is very impressive and hard to believe.
“using it to extract uranium from phosphates” – Syria has a phosphate industry, which supports the production of fertilizer and phosphoric acid. Between 1996 and 2001 Syria operated a pilot plant at Homs for the purification of phosphoric acid, in order to remove the uranium contanmination so that the phosphoric acid could be used for food processing. This project was financed by the UN Developement Program, supported by the IAEA, and not bombed by Israel.
William Amos on September 22, 2007 at 9:15 PM
quax1,
How did Israel get samples from NK nuclear reactors to begin with. Unless we(US) provided them via agents from S.K. It’s a closed society. I can’t see Mossad running around Panmunjom.
Egfrow on September 22, 2007 at 9:23 PM
The UN’s IAEA has numberous samples of NK Nukes
William Amos on September 22, 2007 at 9:25 PM
This same ‘idea’ was floated in the Jerusalem Post a couple of days after the raid was disclosed.
Why the hell, if Israel hit nothing, or if they were the bad guys, didn’t Assad load up the UN and CNN in a van and drive them over to show all the horrible warmongering destruction by Israel? Gee I wonder.
Limerick on September 22, 2007 at 9:25 PM
Does anyone remember this incident from 2002. I find it peculiar that we are only now cracking down on N.K. exports when they have been doing it for years.
Egfrow on September 22, 2007 at 9:25 PM
William Amos,
I was figuring that much but this whole story doesn’t sound right. It’s too neat and clean.
Egfrow on September 22, 2007 at 9:27 PM
What is interesting about this is that, if the story is correct, then when State was declaring a victory with the NKs in regards to their nuke program, Bush had already been briefed about these ties that bind. If that is in fact the case, then I wonder if Bush allowed the duping to proceed with State for disinformation purposes, while working with Israel to gather intel, and then neutralize. This is really interesting.
Weight of Glory on September 22, 2007 at 9:27 PM
Wow.
Why do Joel C. Rosenberg’s fiction novels seem to be coming true?
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on September 22, 2007 at 9:29 PM
It works like this. There is no such thing as a pure sample of any material(unless your sample is one single molecule). The larger the sample the more impurities. Even after the fractional distillation process (which is more or less how uranium is refined and enriched) their are impurities as well as trace amounts of other metals, plus a very unique series of transuranic elements.
The actual process used to refine the uranium also play a significant role in the fissile materials signature. So when you get a sample of fissile material it pretty much tells you were the ore originally can from. What the refinement process was, what the enrichment process was. And how long ago it was refined and enriched. And that tells you who did it.
doriangrey on September 22, 2007 at 9:30 PM
As a note on that….the most effective spy operation in Japan during WWII was run by a Russian. I wouldn’t count out Mossad (or dollar bills).
Limerick on September 22, 2007 at 9:30 PM
NK is giving up their nukes by selling them. Its a way of making extra money and keeping their agreement
If anything this proves the US is watching NK closely. Another reason there has been so much hush hush about it is we want to keep NK in the dark as to what we know.
One wonders what would have happened if this ship had gone directly to Iran ?
William Amos on September 22, 2007 at 9:32 PM
Fissile material isn’t produced in a reactor per say. Yes there are such things as breeder reactors, but thats not where the fissile material gets its finger print.
doriangrey on September 22, 2007 at 9:33 PM
Like sand through the hour glass……yada yada yada.
On the serious side something is up. I agree that if it was nothing the Syrians would be raising hell internationaly and indeed inviting every media group they could get their hands on to go out there so they can play the victim.
FireFly on September 22, 2007 at 9:36 PM
metalurgy labs have had for years a machine that bombards a piece of metal with neutrons from a known source on one side and picks up with a gieger counter just what comes through from the other side. a computer matches that up with known signatures and prints out just what metalurigical structure the sample has and where it comes from.
its about the size of a dishwasher and does its thing in about 45 minutes.
C
pk on September 22, 2007 at 9:36 PM
Here’s some Smoke on the water.
Egfrow on September 22, 2007 at 9:40 PM
I just returned from Yom Kippur services – I have been out of touch since Friday afternoon. Howevah – I saw a friend that I served with in Israel and he has family in Israel. Yosef told me the same exact story yesterday! He heard it from a family member that is in the Airforce. Obviously the “removal” was done so the IDF can present the evidence to the UN! Apparently Syria is a little embarrassed and is taking the low road! I wonder what Kucinich and Pelosi will say about their friend ASSAD now? LIAR LIAR LIAR? LMAO!
iam7545 on September 22, 2007 at 9:44 PM
1sttofight on September 22, 2007 at 9:46 PM
You never know if your air strike will get all the material and who knows, the Israelis might need some of it themselves. I think though this might just be the Israelis thumbing the Syrians in the eye one more time – not only did we blow your operation to hell and make fools of your radar operators, we also stole your material.
Defector01 on September 22, 2007 at 9:47 PM
No,no, what I mean is, before this happened on the sixth, there had been, or so we were told, progress with NK’s nuke program. All this good diplomatic news culminated with a front page Drudge headline of NK inviting an American envoy into NK to account for all their material and programs; to give us unlimited access. This was a shocker, and many people thought that sanctions had finally taken their toll on NK, and they could hold out no longer. A few days before the US was to go to NK, this bombing took place, and the visit was immediately canceled, even before suspicions grew that NK was providing Syria with nuke material. Thus, it would seem that we were saying one thing and doing the opposite. That may not seem like a big deal, but with the various subversive elements in State and Def. it is amazing that the administration could pull off something like this. This leads me to believe that there may have been a plan to allow State to look bad, by keeping them in the dark, in order to both maintain operational security and show the futility of endless sanctions and talking.
Weight of Glory on September 22, 2007 at 9:57 PM
This is a pretty significant claim. Time will tell, I guess.
Spirit of 1776 on September 22, 2007 at 9:58 PM
If this is all true or at least some of it then i’d say it’s pretty significant. This moves the nuclear football closer and closer into irresponsible hands. This has implications for all.
Egfrow on September 22, 2007 at 10:05 PM
Absolutely! IF this story is true, then Monday could be a very interesting day.
Weight of Glory on September 22, 2007 at 10:06 PM
This all tracks back to China and Russia.
Egfrow on September 22, 2007 at 10:12 PM
What a cool raid that must have been. I can’t wait for the movie.
Baphomet on September 22, 2007 at 10:15 PM
Willam Amos,
I have enjoyed reading your knowledgable posts in the past. I have found your comments very informative and always right on track.
I think you should really think about setting up a blog so that others who are less informed (like myself) can benefit from all of the reading you do.
ColtsFan on September 22, 2007 at 10:41 PM
Good thing only Bush was briefed. Those scummy Clinton holdovers in State would have tipped off the Syrians, the NY Times etc., the minute they caught wind. State must remain out of the loop on all covert ops.
roninacreage on September 22, 2007 at 10:44 PM
Who would want to queer the denuclearizing process?
And the Syrians claimed there were no casualties?
The Israeli Commandos wouldn’t necessarily care if the Syrians found out they had taken Nuke material to begin with and maybe the Syrians then did hide it (buried in the desert?) and that’s where the air raid occurred, thus no casualties.
Speakup on September 22, 2007 at 11:06 PM
Here’s another Sara Baxter story today: Secret US air force team to perfect plan for Iran strike
bnelson44 on September 22, 2007 at 11:16 PM
Or far more likely is the Israeli’s went in and stole the U235 and then bombed the facility where Syria was constructing their bomb and the missile that was to carry it.
doriangrey on September 22, 2007 at 11:20 PM
And that’s what makes them so effective.
;>
soundingboard on September 22, 2007 at 11:21 PM
I think you guys read it wrong. They seized a snuke, probably meant for Nancy Palosium.
BDavis on September 22, 2007 at 11:30 PM
HA!
Weight of Glory on September 22, 2007 at 11:32 PM
Does anyone else feel burned out by these interminable decades of cold war after cold war? If I had three big nukes, I would study the scene carefully, choose well, and then bust some heads with just one of them. Afterwards, I’d explain mildly and politely that, before anyone starts another cold war, I’d really appreciate their remembering to ask permission.
Kralizec on September 23, 2007 at 12:18 AM
Can we be one hundred percent sure another ship hasn’t?
Is it possible the NoKo-Syria shipment was a diversion from a NoKo-Iran shipment?
Judging from a stellar Israeli history in these matters, I hesitate to ask, but…
Could the Israelis have fallen for it?
soundingboard on September 23, 2007 at 12:22 AM
That being entirely possible though who knows how much material the Syrians had and the ability to move the isotope could have required heavier transportation than would be normal for a Commando team that was in a hurry on hostile ground.
I would bet that there may not have been casualties in the bombing raid but there probably were a lot of pointy things flying through the air when the Israeli S.O. came calling.
Plus the facility might not have been much of a threat without the isotope, so why go to no small effort bomb it?
Of course its all supposition at this point and may always be.
Speakup on September 23, 2007 at 12:56 AM
Making a nuclear weapon is quite a bit harder than Hollywood has lead many people to believe. It isn’t just a matter of having the U235, there is quite a bit of special tooling involved.
Plus the radiation that the U235 puts off plays hell with electronics, makes them very unreliable. If NK was the source of Syria’s Fissile material just getting rid of the fissile material would not have been enough to prevent Syria from producing a bomb.
If NK transfered fissile material to Syria they find themselves in a very awkward position. As long as the world in general doesn’t know, the Syrians basically can blackmail the NK into continuing to provide them with fissile material.
Hence the need for Israel to destroy any Syrian facility involved in the assembly aspect of a nuclear device. Israel has certain security concerns it must address before it can show the world that they have caught Syria and NK in illegal nuclear technology proliferations.
They pretty much need to make sure that Syria doesn’t have another facility up and running that is also producing a bomb. They obviously think Syria does and they want to take it out as well.
What is quite telling is that Syria is more or less confirming that they do by the extremely limited manner in which they have responded to Israel destroying this facility. Syria obviously doesn’t want anyone asking them really pesky questions at this specific moment in time.
doriangrey on September 23, 2007 at 2:06 AM
It is possible that a true Syrian patriot would view his country’s involvement in refining uranium as a serious threat to his country and would help prevent a retaliatory nuclear strick on his country.
csdeven on September 23, 2007 at 7:58 AM
This explains why Syria has not made a stink at the UN Security Council and a bigger international incident. If it were to conclusively be brought out into the open that they had nuclear material from North Korea, they would have so many sanctions (and the pretext for further US/Israeli military action) so fast that Assad’s giant bulbous head would be spinning.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on September 23, 2007 at 11:09 AM
The article uses the term ‘material’, which is probably a bit misleading. I suspect that, if indeed Israeli ground forces obtained material, what they got was mostly likely ’swipes’, which are routinely used to test for radioactive (and other types) of contamination. The swipes could be transported back to Israel for detailed analysis. It would only be prudent to do something like this (assuming it feasible) before taking military action.
Syria is really Israel’s problem, not ours. Likewise, in the short term, Iran is Israel’s problem. Long-term is a different matter.
Henry Bowman on September 23, 2007 at 11:12 AM
This isn’t good news, first this means we still have North Korea to deal with, now we can hardly ignore Iran but we will have to do the heavy lifting.
We cannot, cannot let extremist get weapons of mass destruction, whether they be a small group nor a country bent on self destruction like Iran.
Our future generations of Americans cannot be held to a nuclear hostage – remember they use their weapons – this isnt MAD of the 60’s its a new MAD of religious zealotry
EricPWJohnson on September 23, 2007 at 12:07 PM
I think its important to remember that Syria has very few original thoughts and its one natural resource is as a proxy for violence at Iran’s behest.
As a mercenary nation its reasonable to think that the first nuclear threats towards Israel would emanate from there and as they do Israel no doubt will methodically take them out.
The methodology of the threat and the response to that threat is going to be very wide ranging and ongoing not to mention evolution or escalation of such threats.
It would be very interesting to have a big picture view of the action but that’s not likely.
Syria is certainly guilty, Israel would not have expended the considerable effort they did arbitrarily.
We just won’t be privy to the details.
To reiterate:
Speakup on September 23, 2007 at 12:11 PM
Henry
Israel would hardly risk war with Syria to go after a nominal target.
EricPWJohnson on September 23, 2007 at 12:16 PM
As far as Israel being duped into following shipments only into Syria (while another made port in Iran) – Don’t we have 3 carriers sitting in the gulf right off Iran? I doubt any ship moving in those waters isn’t scrutinized by the U.S. or Israel. IMHO, with our technology and that of other friendlies, any ship leaving No. Korea is watched or tracked to it’s destination. If it made port in Syria for unloading I’d say we already knew what was on board. Wonder how many ships disappear on the high seas these days?
24K lady on September 23, 2007 at 1:22 PM
EricPWJohnson:
That was pretty much my point. The Israelis would have to be pretty darn sure of what was at the target site before committing. Perhaps you are confused about what swipes are for: their purpose is to extract small amounts of materials for analysis. The implicit assumption is that much more such material exists at the location. For example, if a large but unknown shipment arrives, and later one can determine with reasonable confidence that the shipment contained nuclear materials [of a specific type, which the swipes might reveal], then the operative assumption would be that much larger quantities of the materials are present.
Henry Bowman on September 23, 2007 at 7:34 PM
Is it possible that it was really a chemical or biological weapons site, but the leaker(s) are thinking “nuclear” because they saw/heard the term “WMD” and jumped to conclusions?
Lancer on September 23, 2007 at 8:30 PM
North Korea?…Thanks President Carter.
right2bright on September 23, 2007 at 8:37 PM
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