Shenanigans in the Osama video?

posted at 3:18 pm on September 9, 2007 by Allahpundit

Via Jay Stephenson at Stop the ACLU, the Booman Tribune makes a nice catch that may explain the long stretches of freeze-frame in the Osama vid.

[T]he video freezes at about 1 minute and 36 58 seconds, and motion only resumes again at 12:30. The video then freezes again at 14:02 remains frozen until the end. All references to current events, such as the 62nd anniversary of the U.S. atomic bombing of Japan, and Sarkozy and Brown being the leaders of France and the UK, respectively, occur when the video is frozen! The words spoken when the video is in motion contain no references to contemporary events and could have been (and likely were) made before the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

That last point is debatable. The opening segment is indeed boilerplate but the second segment at 12:36 refers to the Democrats’ failure “to implement your desire to stop the war.” That would have been an odd criticism for Osama to level in 2003 given that popular support for the war in March of that year was bipartisan, with 65% approval, and it would have been in his interest at the time to portray America as united in its “crusade” to make for better jihadist recruitment. It’s a more sensible criticism circa 2005 or 2006, but even then the Democrats had no power to “stop the war” until November of last year — which would, after all, make the clip fairly recent. Besides, as BT acknowledges, the voice sounds the same throughout and two U.S. intel officials confirm that it’s Osama’s. So we’re back to square one — why the freeze frame?

Actually, maybe we’re at square two. Watch very closely from around 13:15 to 13:30; I spot two invisible cuts there, one at 13:17 and another at 13:25. Keep your eye on his left hand in particular. It’s subtle but it’s there. Was he too weak to rattle off the speech in one fluid go? Or did they have to cut the video just so to match his lips to the audio track?

Update: I’m still thinking about those invisible cuts. If I’m right that they’re there to hide the fact that Osama physically couldn’t speak for more than 30 seconds or so at a time, that might explain the long stretches of freeze frame throughout the rest of the video. 26 minutes of one invisible cut after another would be glaringly noticeable. Two minutes of invisible cuts isn’t. Add that to the fact that he looks like a corpse and you’ve got some pretty fair circumstantial evidence that he’s ailing.


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Is this vid fromCNN that explains some thinking about Osama and his psycology. Is chance that Osama is just very critical about how his vids turn out

bin laden

William Amos on September 9, 2007 at 3:42 PM

I’m not exactly a techie, so maybe someone else can answer this, but would it be possible to fake a voiceprint with a professional and the right software?

CP on September 9, 2007 at 3:44 PM

A couple of more Special Comment videos, and the boys will have the production thing nailed….

rw on September 9, 2007 at 3:46 PM

CIA analysis says the voice is bin laden. But I think we might say that the images could have been altered.

I think its possible that the audio is good the monkey business is with the video portions

William Amos on September 9, 2007 at 3:46 PM

I’m not exactly a techie, so maybe someone else can answer this, but would it be possible to fake a voiceprint with a professional and the right software?

CP on September 9, 2007 at 3:44 PM

You would really need to know what you were doing. A large government organization could do it. Probably a couple companies in the world that could make it almost perfect.

CIA analysis says the voice is bin laden.

William Amos on September 9, 2007 at 3:46 PM

Hmmm, a large government organization.

/DU commenter off

sunny on September 9, 2007 at 3:52 PM

As I see it, OBL has been pushing up daisies for some time now making these tapes a sham. And unless there are samples of his voice from his earlier years, a Hollywood recording technique called a voice-over is most likely what we are seeing. In that way current events can easily be inserted on to the tape.

By the way, I didn’t know that OBL was so vain that he dyed his hair. Maybe he’s auditioning for a CNN reality show.

pocomoco on September 9, 2007 at 3:57 PM

CP on September 9, 2007 at 3:44 PM

24 season 2 the Cyprus audio tape.

Is it really that far off from reality???

Mojack420 on September 9, 2007 at 3:58 PM

bush faked the phone calls from flight 93 too. truthers told me. it is quite possible. ;)

lorien1973 on September 9, 2007 at 4:08 PM

… the second segment at 12:36 refers to the Democrats’ failure “to implement your desire to stop the war.” That would have been an odd criticism for Osama to level in 2003

Not if he has been watching CNN for years.

I can’t address the technical issues, but don’t forget that the Iraq War Resolution was not unanimous and Ted Kennedy, Russ Feingold, and others, were very vocal in their opposition:

…it passed the House on October 10, 2002 by a vote of 296-133, and the Senate on October 11 by a vote of 77-23.

Certainly there were the usual loud grumblings from the Left:

The Iraq War has met with considerable popular opposition in the United States, beginning during the planning stages and continuing through the invasion subsequent occupation of Iraq. The months leading up to the war saw protests across the United States, the largest of which, held on February 15, 2003 involved between 300,000 – 400,000 protesters in New York City, with smaller numbers protesting in Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago, and other cities.

ad nauseum.

And didn’t Kofi Annan also claim that the invasion was “illegal”, and isn’t he an honorary member of the Democrat Party?

Not to mention the loud chorus of European opposition, all Democrat allies:

Around the 2003 Invasion of Iraq and subsequent occupation of Iraq, polling data indicated that opposition to military action against Iraq was widespread in Europe

Bin Laden could easily have perceived that only the Bush-Cheney cabal of neo-cons supported the War, especially since he is a Global Warming Moonbat :)

Buy Danish on September 9, 2007 at 4:11 PM

I don’t think our boy in the video is Osama.

Maxx on September 9, 2007 at 4:12 PM

What Im thinking is that the video is an old one of osama edited to give him a new black beard and then dubbed over with a new audio file.

They still want to hide Osama’s illness I think

William Amos on September 9, 2007 at 4:22 PM

Is it possible that what we are hearing is a blending of two separate speeches? The first one was made on video some time ago. That’s the one we hear when the video is running. The second one, more recent, is audio only, and was spliced into the video during the pauses.
If this is possible, might Osama have used this technique to provide a video for the world without letting anyone know what he looks like right now? Say, due to scarring or illness or deliberately altered appearance or whatever.

Lancer on September 9, 2007 at 4:26 PM

I’m leaning to that theory Lancer. Speech written by Adam Gadahn. Audio: Bin Laden. Video: Older one.

Jay on September 9, 2007 at 4:29 PM

It’s the torra borra version of Weekend at Bernie’s.

~He still looks good for a dead guy.

locomotivebreath1901 on September 9, 2007 at 4:41 PM

I don’t think it’s even bin Laden. Somewhere I saw the side-by-side comparisons of his last appearance (with the white-ish beard) and this present one. The beard could have been cut and died (or it could be a fake), but unless they’re performing nose jobs and doing eye work in the caves of Tora Bora, Miss Bin Laden has a twin sister who’s acting as an imposter…

D2Boston on September 9, 2007 at 4:47 PM

A look a like for the video is possible too, regardless of whether it is really his voice or not.

Jay on September 9, 2007 at 4:49 PM

CIA analysis says the voice is bin laden.

Are these the same CIA analysts that saw 9/11 coming? You know what CIA stands for? Can’t Identify Anything.

I would say the CIA is the world’s least informed and least capable intelligence service. There are small countries in the Middle East that know more about what is going on than the CIA. While the CIA only can guess where bin laden is, I am willing to bet that the Jordanian services, the Mossad, the Saudi intelligence, for example, know for a fact. The CIA is essentially out of the loop when it comes to islamic terrorism.

The CIA was the best in the world when it came to the Russians, knowing what they were up to, but the arabic world has proven to be something far from their experience or expertise.

jihadwatcher on September 9, 2007 at 4:51 PM

I’m guessing that OBL, if he isn’t Waziri worm castings already, may not have enough of a face left to face a camera.

One hopes that a wandering embolism finds him soon, if so.

profitsbeard on September 9, 2007 at 5:13 PM

He’s dying his beard like Saddam did (shortly before taking the dirt nap). Is this a Muslim play-ah kind of thing?

Mojave Mark on September 9, 2007 at 5:40 PM

I’m not exactly a techie, so maybe someone else can answer this, but would it be possible to fake a voiceprint with a professional and the right software?

CP on September 9, 2007 at 3:44 PM

Just for clarification, I wasn’t implying that our gov’t faked it, I was just curious if an organization like AQ could have that capability. Seems to me a sound engineer who knows what he’s doing could, conceivably, do that.

CP on September 9, 2007 at 5:47 PM

Is there an archive somewhere with all of Osama’s video messages that we could check to see if the video portion of this “new” one is actually an outake of one he made several years ago, in 2002 or 2003 perhaps?

Spiny Norman on September 9, 2007 at 5:48 PM

The CIA was the best in the world when it came to the Russians, knowing what they were up to

jihadwatcher

Yes, they were absolutely prescient about the economic collapse of USSR.

Stephen M on September 9, 2007 at 5:48 PM

CP

Just for clarification, I wasn’t implying that our gov’t faked it, I was just curious if an organization like AQ could have that capability. Seems to me a sound engineer who knows what he’s doing could, conceivably, do that.

He has an adult son who’s supposedly being held prisoner by the Iranians. I wonder if his voice is close enough to his father’s to fool the experts, especially with the scratchy distorted audio on these tapes. The reason I ask is that my voice is so much like my dad’s that my own mother has to ask which one of us she’s talking to.

Spiny Norman on September 9, 2007 at 5:52 PM

*so much alike on the phone*

Sorry, I edited too much of that line on that last one…

Spiny Norman on September 9, 2007 at 5:53 PM

Of course there are ‘shenanigans’; I told you all that there would be lots of fakery before the tape was made available, and gave you a basic outline of how it would be.

Of course the Bin Ladin experts at CIA confirm that the audio is him. They are some of the ones with a vested interest in keeping him ‘alive’ no matter how dead he obviously is.

LegendHasIt on September 9, 2007 at 5:57 PM

The CIA was the best in the world when it came to the Russians, knowing what they were up to

jihadwatcher

Aldrich Ames

pedestrian on September 9, 2007 at 6:25 PM

I think Bullwinkle accounts for the missing time: http://www.bullwinkleblog.com/?p=5028

William Teach on September 9, 2007 at 6:45 PM

Two minutes of invisible cuts isn’t. Add that to the fact that he looks like a corpse and you’ve got some pretty fair circumstantial evidence that he’s ailing.

I think you are mostly correct, AP, you magnificent bastard.

Mcguyver on September 9, 2007 at 6:57 PM

Excellent job by Bullwinkle Mr. Teach! That’s a keeper.

LegendHasIt on September 9, 2007 at 7:04 PM

pedestrian on September 9, 2007 at 6:25 PM

The CIA was good at knowing what the russian military was up to. They were not so good at counter espionage. In fact, they were terrible at it, and still are.

jihadwatcher on September 9, 2007 at 7:11 PM

Dead man speaking.

pat on September 9, 2007 at 8:22 PM

Fidel says he saw him yesterday.

JiangxiDad on September 9, 2007 at 8:59 PM

I don’t have the broadband to play it. Did anyone notice if he’s even blinking?

This guy’s skin is green underneath that flesh-colored make-up. I wonder if he’s being propped up or something–like Charlton Heston in ‘El Cid’. He’s as close to being dead as anyone I’ve ever seen outside a morgue.

ahem on September 9, 2007 at 9:03 PM

D2Boston on September 9, 2007 at 4:47 PM

Is this the side by side you saw?

Grey beard Bin Laden 2004 vs. Swarthy Bin Laden 2007

Courtesy of a bunch of Moonbats who don’t think Bin Laden had anything to do with 9/11, but I digress.

And I agree with everyone who says the CIA’s analysis isn’t worth much, either because of incompetence or due to BDS.

Buy Danish on September 9, 2007 at 9:19 PM

I TOLD YOU GUYS!!!!! HE’S DEAD! I have been a nurse for years. I know what a dead guy looks like. Look at him! Look at his color!!!! Look at his lividity!!!! Sure, they can make him move and look like he’s talking with a little shop, but truly, have you ever seen anyone who is alive look that bad?????? I fear we have all been duped, just like the GI Joe hostage.

bloggless on September 9, 2007 at 9:38 PM

He’s not being propped up, it looks as if he’s laying down, but the camera angle is such that he appears to be standing.

bloggless on September 9, 2007 at 9:39 PM

He has an adult son who’s supposedly being held prisoner by the Iranians.

Spiny Norman on September 9, 2007 at 5:52 PM

That used to be the case, but Allah only knows where he is now.

This tape is as fishy as a Vietnamese grocery.

Pablo on September 9, 2007 at 9:47 PM

D2Boston on September 9, 2007 at 4:47 PM

Come to think of it, you probably saw this side by side from Trackbacks and Pings^^^

It occurs to me that if he is alive but weak, why would they have him recite such an interminably long speech? Why not cut to the chase with something short and menacing?

If he is alive, he needs to fire Adam Gadhan as his speechwriter. And please buy him a new outfit, and update the tired looking paint job in the background.

Buy Danish on September 9, 2007 at 9:52 PM

This M-er-F-er has been dead for a long time.

RightWinged on September 9, 2007 at 9:56 PM

My guess, as well as many others, is that this is an old video with a sound track from a bin laden sound alike. Fairly easy. You have a voice over actor lip synch the first minute and then actually freeze the video and have the voice actor continue with the new speech.

rarbolay on September 9, 2007 at 10:04 PM

My guess, as well as many others, is that this is an old video with a sound track from a bin laden sound alike. Fairly easy. You have a voice over actor lip synch the first minute and then actually freeze the video and have the voice actor continue with the new speech.

rarbolay on September 9, 2007 at 10:04 PM

So true, I’m a great mimic and I was on my friend (back in Nashville)’s voice mail/outgoing message (pretending to be him) for like a year, and no one had any idea. People called his phone, and never had a clue… and that was just clowning around because my friend wasn’t the brightest, and could never record his own voicemail or even leave a decent outgoing message when I set it up for him and handed him to phone to record it.

RightWinged on September 9, 2007 at 10:52 PM

bloggless

He’s not being propped up, it looks as if he’s laying down, but the camera angle is such that he appears to be standing.

Weekend at Binny’s: Part XII.

Spiny Norman on September 9, 2007 at 11:18 PM

It’s him. He’s sick. Good analysis AP.

Christoph on September 10, 2007 at 12:22 AM

Allahpundit

Update: I’m still thinking about those invisible cuts. If I’m right that they’re there to hide the fact that Osama physically couldn’t speak for more than 30 seconds or so at a time, that might explain the long stretches of freeze frame throughout the rest of the video. 26 minutes of one invisible cut after another would be glaringly noticeable. Two minutes of invisible cuts isn’t. Add that to the fact that he looks like a corpse and you’ve got some pretty fair circumstantial evidence that he’s ailing.

I would guess that you’re wrong, and that the answer to all the questions you are asking is one single word. Steganography, the place where the video is missing either contains the information Bin Laden was sending out to his western cells or was removed by the CIA because it contained that information.

doriangrey on September 10, 2007 at 1:36 AM

One of these days. . . . .

http://www.september-11th.us/Priceless.jpg

Texyank on September 10, 2007 at 10:47 AM

I spot another cut at 13:28.

that makes 3 cuts in 11 seconds?

cadetwithchips2 on September 10, 2007 at 12:30 PM

The reason I ask is that my voice is so much like my dad’s that my own mother has to ask which one of us she’s talking to.

While cleaning in my mom’s house I came across transcription LPs from when my father, who was a veterinarian and active in the regional veterinary association, and a friend of his, another vet named Marty, were on a radio call in show for pet owners back in 1957 (the host of the show was, coincidentally, Kasey Kasem, who got his start here in Detroit). I sampled the LPs and put the wav files on a cd and gave it to my mom as a birthday present. I thought it would be nice for her to hear my dad’s voice again, since he passed away in 1989.

Her reaction?

“That’s not your father. It sounds nothing like him. Marty sounds like Marty, but the other guy doesn’t sound anything like your father.”

Compared to the end of his life, in 1957 my dad was 40 years closer to his Brooklyn upbringing and didn’t have the effect of another 40 years of two to three packs a day on his voice. I could tell it was my dad, from the inflections and how he used humor, but his voice was definitely pitched a bit higher than I remember it.

It’d be interesting to play these recordings for the CIA “experts” along with some from later in his life and see if the experts decide it’s the same voice.

rokemronnie on September 10, 2007 at 8:28 PM

Sorry, bad arithmetic. That should have been “32 years closer”.

rokemronnie on September 10, 2007 at 8:30 PM