Escalation: Iran installs hardline Revolutionary Guard chief, says 3,000 centrifuges now in place

posted at 2:50 pm on September 2, 2007 by Allahpundit

I’m not going to spend time running through the significance of the number 3,000, not after half a dozen posts on the subject in the past. I invite you to re-read this one and this one, in particular; basically, if you’ve got 3,000 running the way they’re supposed to, you can build a bomb in a year. Are Iran’s running the way they’re supposed to? According to Iranian stooge Mohammed ElBaradei, no:

The [IAEA] report released Thursday, a quarterly update of Iran’s nuclear activity, said the country was operating nearly 2,000 centrifuges, the machines that enrich uranium, at its vast underground plant at Natanz, an increase of several hundred from three months ago. More than 650 additional centrifuges are being tested or are under construction, the agency said.

That number is far short of Iran’s projection that by now it would have 3,000 centrifuges up and running. The IAEA also reported that uranium being processed by the working centrifuges at Natanz was “well below the expected quantity for a facility of this design.” In addition, the agency said that uranium was enriched to a lower level than the Iranians had claimed.

These results have raised questions among private experts and officials at the atomic agency about whether Iran is facing technical difficulties or has made a political decision to curtail its nuclear operations. Low enriched uranium can fuel power reactors, and highly enriched uranium can fuel a bomb.

David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a private group in Washington that tracks nuclear proliferation, said his own calculations, based on the report’s data, suggested that Iran was operating its centrifuges at as little as 10 percent of their potential. “That’s very low — and we don’t know why,” he said.

Centrifuges have to operate continuously for months on end at optimum efficiency to enrich uranium to pure, bomb-grade strength. Like the article says, maybe they haven’t figured out how to do it yet or maybe they have but they’re holding back for the moment. Or, maybe this is a dog and pony show for the IAEA to convince them that the nuke program is far less advanced than it actually is while other centrifuges operate in some secret facility elsewhere. According to a lone U.S. intel expert named Alexis Debat, the Pentagon has already drawn up plans for a massive three-day air campaign to destroy not just the nuke facilities but large swaths of the Iranian military — a necessity given the certainty of Iranian military reprisals against U.S. troops across the border in Iraq and Afghanistan. Lost in the fine print at the end of the piece is Debat’s own stated belief that the U.S. isn’t going to attack if only because we’re already spread too thin and can’t afford to, but the Sunday Telegraph says Bush is taking it seriously enough to wargame the oil aftershocks with economic planners. The verdict: ugly but tolerable.

Computer modelling found that if Iran closed the Straits of Hormuz, it would nearly double the world price of oil, knock $161 billion off American GDP in a single quarter, cost one million jobs and slash disposable income by $260 billion a quarter.

The war gamers advocated deploying American oil reserves – good for 60 days – using military force to break the blockade (two US aircraft carrier groups and half of America’s 277 warships are already stationed close to Iran), opening up oil development in Alaska, and ending import tariffs on ethanol fuel. If the government also subsidised fuel for poorer Americans, the war-gamers concluded, it would mitigate the financial consequences of a conflict.

The Heritage report concludes: “The results were impressive. The policy recommendations eliminated virtually all of the negative outcomes from the blockade.”

Again: that’s purely the economic end. It doesn’t address Iranian military and paramilitary, i.e. terrorist, responses. It also doesn’t guarantee that a bombing run would accomplish its goal of knocking out Iran’s reactors. On the contrary, “the CIA, apparently, does not have enough intelligence to guarantee that the nuclear programme could be permanently crippled, and little way of knowing after the event how much time they have bought with a raid. International estimates of how long it would take Iran to get a bomb vary between a year and 10 years.” In fact, the CIA isn’t even sure that Iran has a bomb-making program in place. The fact that it’s the Telegraph, which has been notoriously hawkish on Iran, that’s relaying that information is worth noting.

As for the change in leadership at the top of the Revolutionary Guard, when the news broke I thought back to this story from during the British sailor hostage crisis about how the current commander, Safavi, allegedly backed down and urged Khamenei to release the sailors before things escalated further. With Bush threatening the Guard, Khamenei probably wants someone with more balls — a “wartime consigliere,” to borrow a phrase. Sounds like that’s right:

Iranian experts regarded Jaafari’s promotion as a victory for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as Safavi was not seen to be tough enough in the face of mounting western pressure and argued the guards were not strong enough to repel a foreign attack.

His successor is known to be more bullish about the guards’ fighting ability, and has taken an active role in Iran’s clandestine activities in neighbouring Iraq. Earlier this year US forces almost captured Jaafari in Iraq. He escaped but the Americans seized five of his colleagues, all belonging to the Quds force of the guards…

Iranian sources said last night that the US moves against the Revolutionary Guards triggered the decision to remove Safavi…

The main reservations of the ultra-fundamentalists about Safavi were based on his opposition to the expansion of the Revolutionary Guards in economic sector of the country, his ties with reformist circles, and his efforts to coordinate the guards’ activities more closely with the generals of the regular army.

Note the boldfaced part. Longtime HA readers may recall the Independent crying about the U.S. attempt to nab Jafari at Irbil; now he’s the operational head of their state terror apparatus. Good work, boys.

Before another round of knee-jerk “BOMB NOW!” comments begins, take it from a hawk among hawks: it’s not a good idea. Not yet, anyway.


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Iranians using echo-location? I knew they were batty, but jeez!

astuddis on September 2, 2007 at 2:55 PM

Leave the Bronx.

Asher on September 2, 2007 at 3:00 PM

I just think that, for the moment at least, it’d be a bad idea to open up any kind of military campaign against Iran due to the almost certain loss of whatever pro-Western sentiments may still lie with the Iranian public.

But the bit about us not being able to start a 3-day air campaign because we’re spread too thin? Puh-lease. One might say that about our ground forces, but the combined air power of the USAF, USN and USMC is not exactly stretched to the limit at this time.

flipflop on September 2, 2007 at 3:01 PM

It sure looks like a collision course to bombing Iran. They continue to kill our troops in Iraq. They continue to threaten Israel. They continue to sponsor terrorism. They are using Syria and Hezbollah to basically control Lebanon and threaten Israel (did I mention that already?). Oh yeah, they are pursuing nuclear weapons.

The dangers to bombing Iran? Many. What would Russia do? What would China do? What would the Democrats do? And of course the threat of terrorism everywhere (like our shopping malls even).

No easy answers, but I imagine Iran will force us to act eventually. By then the price will probably be even higher. Isn’t the world we live in fun? Man…

Ordinary1 on September 2, 2007 at 3:05 PM

Ecalation:

Escalation.

I know you are working hard AP.
Thanks for all you do.

Mcguyver on September 2, 2007 at 3:09 PM

Why does any of this matter? Any possible negative outcome due to an attack pales in comparison to the possibility of having Iran with operable nukes.

Let’s see …

Do I want to pay higher gas prices, or do I want to live through nuclear war?

There’s really no argument. Stop them, no matter what it takes.

Gregor on September 2, 2007 at 3:29 PM

Does anyone with a brain doubt that if (or more precisely, when) Iran gets “the bomb”, that they would use it…either literally, or as quite a “bargaining chip”?

I keep praying perhaps the Israelis will pull off another Osirik-style mission.

And what has the UN been doing to stop Iran from this pursuit? But then, they have enough internal problems and corruption.

There’s no way on God’s green Earth that Iran should have even gotten this far…and that’s only what appears that we know. Yeah, we’ve been discussing the possibilities that they have the centrifuges…or that they’re operating properly…even the IAEA doesn’t seem very sure.

JetBoy on September 2, 2007 at 3:31 PM

it’d be a bad idea to open up any kind of military campaign against Iran due to the almost certain loss of whatever pro-Western sentiments may still lie with the Iranian public.

flipflop on September 2, 2007 at 3:01 PM

Err … so we allow a man who appears to be the second coming of Adolf Hitler to obtain nukes, so we won’t upset the few Iranians who view us favorably?

Huh?

Gregor on September 2, 2007 at 3:32 PM

I have said from the beginning we should have dealt with Iran instead of before Iraq

Gwillie on September 2, 2007 at 3:32 PM

Let me see if I understand all this correctly. We could continue with our policies in Iraq, Continue work on further sanctions on Iran. A long slow political process that will take years before we know if they are working. We do all that whilst paying for activists to change the political atmosphere within Iran and endure needless American soldiers deaths. OR We blow them back to the 14th century.

I gotta go with the parking lot building campaign. We need to give a major smack down against evil once and for all and everyone knows you can never have too many parking spaces.

Guardian on September 2, 2007 at 4:05 PM

I saw this on of all places a business web site. I have no idea if it is legitimate or not. It does have more than a bit of political “slant” sprinkled into it so I am more suspicious of the rest of it, but who knows and it is nonetheless interesting, if a bit long, so I link to it.

“We Are Going To Hit Iran. Bigtime”

MB4 on September 2, 2007 at 4:08 PM

I’ve always been a fan of the “Curtis LeMay School of Warfare”. With our current weapons and delivery systems, Iranian infrastructure can be so demolished so quickly that a working flashlight will be a wonder of technology in Iran for years to come.

Jonas Parker on September 2, 2007 at 4:25 PM

“I am sure if my father knew I was telling someone in a news organization that we were about to launch a supposedly secret attack that it would be treason. But something inside me tells me to tell it anyway.”

This makes me more suspicious that the story “We Are Going To Hit Iran Bigtime” is bogus as the person that is supposedly telling it to the other person is practically named by her military career story (going from Marines to Navy, LSO on a carrier attack group, etc.).

MB4 on September 2, 2007 at 4:29 PM

Time to buy the USO ETF. Oil going to the moon. the bombing is coming. Bush has stated that Iran will not get the bomb. Our forces are mobilizing in the Persian Gulf and Europe’s are off the coast of Syria. Isreal is being very quiet but has been mobilizing and war gaming for a summer/fall war with Syria. IMO the final clue was the withdrawal of all british troops from Iraq. These troops were in the bull’seye of a Iranian counter strike should we bomb. Now they are out of harm’s way and if the Iranian’s are stupid enough to invade Southern Iraq our Air Force will be free to LEVEL the entire area. This will weaken the Shite population to the point that they will come to the table to get a political accord with the Kurds and Sunnis.

Three days of massive bombing in accord with a blockcade and a surgical invasion to keep open the Strait by the 10,000 marines sitting on ships in the Gulf. Will hopefully bring the Iran government down. Special forces will be onsite of the Nuclear facilites to make sure they are eliminated. The Guard will be left in ruins and then we will see what’s left after the dust clears.

The surge was the key. By secureing our backdoor we are now able to go back into the fight.

It’s coming and it’s going to be mean, bloody, swift and deadly.

unseen on September 2, 2007 at 4:33 PM

“…Before another round of knee-jerk “BOMB NOW!” comments begins…”

Yeah, all you bone-headed, knuckle scraping, slack jawed, tree climbing, neo-con reactionaries!

AP, you really see yourself as a sophisticated sort, don’t you? Far above us commoners, guardian of the the superior thought processes others lack. Good grief…

JWS on September 2, 2007 at 4:50 PM

Ask Mahmoud to deliver the 3,000 centrifuges to a UN inspection team for removal from Iran by 9/11, or remove them the hard way.

B-2′s, cruise missiles, et al.

Children can’t be allowed to play with loaded guns.

Fatalistic religious fanatics can’t be allowed to play with nukes.

profitsbeard on September 2, 2007 at 4:53 PM

AP, you really see yourself as a sophisticated sort, don’t you? Far above us commoners, guardian of the the superior thought processes others lack. Good grief…

JWS on September 2, 2007 at 4:50 PM

Me too!

Waiting only allows Iran, Russia and China to get even further in bed with each other.

Take out the weakest now, before the world belongs to them without so much as a fight.

Dersu on September 2, 2007 at 5:24 PM

MB4,

That article you linked to, is, as you probably know, from Daily KOS

And my bet is that it is fantasy.

Yes, MB4, we know how to use google

bnelson44 on September 2, 2007 at 5:48 PM

Err … so we allow a man who appears to be the second coming of Adolf Hitler to obtain nukes, so we won’t upset the few Iranians who view us favorably?

Huh?

Gregor on September 2, 2007 at 3:32 PM

If it was only a handful of Iranians, I might agree. But everything I’ve read says it’s a hell of a lot more than that.

flipflop on September 2, 2007 at 5:51 PM

If it was only a handful of Iranians, I might agree. But everything I’ve read says it’s a hell of a lot more than that.

flipflop on September 2, 2007 at 5:51 PM

The question still remains …

So you’re suggesting that we simply allow a madman who desires to bring on the Apocalypse to obtain nukes? Because you don’t want to lose friends?

Gregor on September 2, 2007 at 5:59 PM

Why does any of this matter? Any possible negative outcome due to an attack pales in comparison to the possibility of having Iran with operable nukes.

Let’s see …

Do I want to pay higher gas prices, or do I want to live through nuclear war?

There’s really no argument. Stop them, no matter what it takes.

Gregor on September 2, 2007 at 3:29 PM

That’s pretty much the line of thought I have on the issue. The Europeans have been trying and failing to negotiate with Iran and the U.N. has been doing their usual appeasement with weakened resolutions and such. Attacking Iran is a bad idea but not attacking them and letting them get a nuke is even worse. When it does come time to strike, I just hope we can hit hard and effective enough to do enough damage to keep Iran from even being able to consider building a nuke again. Then hopefully we can stop them from funding and supplying their proxy war in Iraq agaist our troops.

Yakko77 on September 2, 2007 at 5:59 PM

Do I want to pay higher gas prices, or do I want to live through nuclear war?

There’s really no argument. Stop them, no matter what it takes.

Gregor on September 2, 2007 at 3:29 PM

Well put, and the sooner the better.

infidel4life on September 2, 2007 at 6:03 PM

I say:

“BOMB NOW!” Who’s with me? Lets gooooooooooo! (apologies to Blutarski)

JWS on September 2, 2007 at 6:06 PM

I have no problem understanding the rational given in the NRO article. This is why I am a Conservative. Logic procedes rational thought which leads to a solution. In this case it could very well be an Iranian uprising that ousts the GOON SQUAD now in power. The son of the former President of Iran (sha sp?)is very western in his appearence and thinking like his father and the people before the Islamofacist Coup. How do you say VIVA REVOLUTION in Arabic?

According to the National Review Online:
But there are subtle indications that U.S. policy is slowly working, and that a strike now on Iran would be a grave mistake, in every strategic and political sense — not to mention the humanitarian one of harming a populace that may well soon prove to be the most pro-Western in the region.

sonnyspats1 on September 2, 2007 at 6:15 PM

I keep hearing tales of the hijacked hearts of Iran who want nothing more than i-pods and to speak “Yankee”.

Are these the mythical magical moderate muslims we have heard about for all these years inside our silly western mindset?

I believe it’s an old neocon tale to make the west think they will be liberating muslims who don’t want to act like muslims anymore. It’s a load of crap pertinent to the overall picture.

Destroy Iran’s military dreams and infrastructure…yesterday.

BL@KBIRD on September 2, 2007 at 6:16 PM

BUSHCO 9/12/01 Heh Heh Hindsight is 20/20

sonnyspats1 on September 2, 2007 at 6:21 PM

Rick Moran writes at American Thinker about this, with link to the same KOS blog.

JiangxiDad on September 2, 2007 at 6:21 PM

Commandant of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, said on state television. “God willing, the 21st century will see the defeat of the U.S. and the Zionists, and the victory of freedom-seeking nations of the world. The final goal of the [1979] revolution is to create global Islamic rule and a regime of law to be led by the Imam Mahdi”.

The [Iranians] President’s chief strategist, Hassan Abbassi, has come up with a war plan based on the premise that “Britain is the mother of all evils” – the evils being America, Australia, New Zealand, Israel, the Gulf states and even Canada, all of whom are the malign progeny of the British Empire. “We have a strategy drawn up for the destruction of Anglo-Saxon civilization,” says Mr Abbassi. “There are 29 sensitive sites in the U.S. and in the West. We have already spied on these sites and we know how we are going to attack them… Once we have defeated the Anglo-Saxons the rest will run for cover.”

The IRGC chief warned that Iran was seeing through “critical days” and “fate-determining years”. He described the purpose of Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution as the “Salvation of Muslims” from the hands of the “oppressive U.S. and Israel”.

VinceP1974 on September 2, 2007 at 6:31 PM

Get ready boys I smell a new draft.

mjkazee on September 2, 2007 at 6:32 PM

BL@KBIRD on September 2, 2007 at 6:16 PM

Are these the mythical magical moderate muslims we have heard about for all these years inside our silly western mindset?

You’ll probably see a few of these after the bombing.

JiangxiDad on September 2, 2007 at 6:32 PM

I’m not of the mind, or patience, to link up lots of back-up, but there are numerous indications that much of the Iranian populace is none too happy with President Sportcoat and his regime.

To go on a 3-day bombing bender at this time doesn’t seem too prudent right now.

SilverStar830 on September 2, 2007 at 6:33 PM

Get ready boys I smell a new draft.

Guess we won’t be needing that wall afterall.

JiangxiDad on September 2, 2007 at 6:34 PM

From VDH’s article:

Mohamed Ahmadinejad is still ranting, but with more a sense of false braggadocio…

This worked out really well for Saddam. Had he come clean and given up the charade he might not be shovelling shit in a pig farm in hell.

If Ahmadinnerjacket makes the same error then he obviously isn’t familiar with the concept of learning from other’s mistakes.

Stupid Ahmadinnerjacket.

Rosetta on September 2, 2007 at 6:35 PM

there are numerous indications that much of the Iranian populace is none too happy with President Sportcoat and his regime.

Look, it’s bombs or revolution, in the one year left of Bush’s term. One way or the other this regime in Teheran is over.

JiangxiDad on September 2, 2007 at 6:38 PM

MB4,

That article you linked to, is, as you probably know, from Daily KOS

And my bet is that it is fantasy.

Yes, MB4, we know how to use google

bnelson44 on September 2, 2007 at 5:48 PM

The link is to a comment on http://www.prudentbear.com NOT Daily KOS. It’s kind of a dead give away if you look at the link address. But congratulations on being able to use google and have whatever at Daily KOS.

MB4 on September 2, 2007 at 6:38 PM

The link is to a comment on http://www.prudentbear.com NOT Daily KOS.

MB4 on September 2, 2007 at 6:38 PM

MB4, while you linked to the story at predentbear, bnelson44 was pointing out that the person who actually posted the story, and apparently the author (Maccabee) is a Kos Diarist and also posted the same story on DailyKos. I would agree that this should cause some skepticism.

Gregor on September 2, 2007 at 6:46 PM

Um, if I learned anything from the Iraq war, it was that Muslim communities need brutal, thugy secret police, revolutionary guards, neighborhood snitches, the whole fascist gamut, to operate successfully as a society rather than killing each other which is their religion and nature (for the few that affect the many).

We should be taking out the Mullahs and the president (the political structure) and leaving the military and police structure alone.

AZCON on September 2, 2007 at 6:49 PM

MB4
The original post came from DailyKOS and is apparently being copied by liberals all over the net as if it were true. Do you really think that a junior officer on board a US ship would break OPSEC and commit treason to further a political blog on DailyKOS.

bnelson44 on September 2, 2007 at 6:50 PM

Gregor on September 2, 2007 at 6:46 PM

I think that he was trying to insinuate “point out” something a “bit” more with his “Yes, MB4, we know how to use google”.

MB4 on September 2, 2007 at 6:52 PM

Mike Wallace handles a Cobra! Gee the U.S. military seems to be stategically positioned to finally solve the Islamofacist threat. How did that happen? I mean who’s idea was it to go to Iraq anyhow?

sonnyspats1 on September 2, 2007 at 6:56 PM

MB4
The original post came from DailyKOS and is apparently being copied by liberals all over the net as if it were true. Do you really think that a junior officer on board a US ship would break OPSEC and commit treason to further a political blog on DailyKOS.

bnelson44 on September 2, 2007 at 6:50 PM

Is this groundhog day the movie?

See my much earlier comment.

“I am sure if my father knew I was telling someone in a news organization that we were about to launch a supposedly secret attack that it would be treason. But something inside me tells me to tell it anyway.”

This makes me more suspicious that the story “We Are Going To Hit Iran Bigtime” is bogus as the person that is supposedly telling it to the other person is practically named by her military career story (going from Marines to Navy, LSO on a carrier attack group, etc.).

MB4 on September 2, 2007 at 4:29 PM

MB4 on September 2, 2007 at 6:58 PM

I’m not of the mind, or patience, to link up lots of back-up, but there are numerous indications that much of the Iranian populace is none too happy with President Sportcoat and his regime.

To go on a 3-day bombing bender at this time doesn’t seem too prudent right now.

blah blah blah.. i’ve been hearing this since high school.. 1988-1992

VinceP1974 on September 2, 2007 at 7:04 PM

To go on a 3-day bombing bender at this time doesn’t seem too prudent right now.

SilverStar830 on September 2, 2007 at 6:33 PM

No adults allowed!

MB4 on September 2, 2007 at 7:08 PM

I’m not of the mind, or patience, to link up lots of back-up, but there are numerous indications that much of the Iranian populace is none too happy with President Sportcoat and his regime.

To go on a 3-day bombing bender at this time doesn’t seem too prudent right now.

SilverStar830 on September 2, 2007 at 6:33 PM

Couldn’t a “3-day bombing bender” break the very chains that are holding back a pro-west Iranian populace? Seems like a lot of us have heard about them for years (decades?), but they have been unable to gain power. Since we probably don’t have time to wait for a political solution, could bombing Iran back to the 18th Century help those on the inside that are on our side?

Ordinary1 on September 2, 2007 at 7:11 PM

This makes me more suspicious that the story “We Are Going To Hit Iran Bigtime” is bogus as the person that is supposedly telling it to the other person is practically named by her military career story (going from Marines to Navy, LSO on a carrier attack group, etc.).

I agree it is suspicious. And if the person whose blog it is is standing by the story on DailyKOS that blog is suspicious as well.

bnelson44 on September 2, 2007 at 7:12 PM

The IAEA also reported that uranium being processed by the working centrifuges at Natanz was “well below the expected quantity for a facility of this design.”

Any hope at all that the IAEA is checking to make sure the difference from expected quantity is not elsewhere?

Karl on September 2, 2007 at 7:13 PM

But there are subtle indications that U.S. policy is slowly working, and that a strike now on Iran would be a grave mistake, in every strategic and political sense — not to mention the humanitarian one of harming a populace that may well soon prove to be the most pro-Western in the region.

sonnyspats1 on September 2, 2007 at 6:15 PM

Oh for Pete’s sake that is ridiculous!

Everyone knows how well Bush’s plans with regard to Iraq have gone.

Why would it be any different with Iran?

Surly one success would follow the other.

MB4 on September 2, 2007 at 7:14 PM

Mike Wallace handles a Cobra revisited

sonnyspats1 on September 2, 2007 at 7:14 PM

I agree it is suspicious. And if the person whose blog it is is standing by the story on DailyKOS that blog is suspicious as well.

bnelson44 on September 2, 2007 at 7:12 PM

I agree. But I still find it interesting and you just never know for sure.

Personally I would give low odds for any attack on Iran in the near future even if I had never seen that particular “story”. DEBKA a few months ago was predicting such an attack and it never happened then. Even DEBKA, as far as I know, is not predicting one now.

MB4 on September 2, 2007 at 7:19 PM

The question still remains …

So you’re suggesting that we simply allow a madman who desires to bring on the Apocalypse to obtain nukes? Because you don’t want to lose friends?

Gregor on September 2, 2007 at 5:59 PM

No. You’ll notice in my original comment I said “for the moment”. Don’t put words in my mouth, and I won’t put words in yours, such as suggesting we preemptively nuke every nuclear power who may some day pose a threat to us.

flipflop on September 2, 2007 at 7:24 PM

Neptunus Lex is hoisting the flag on that dKos diary.

Karl on September 2, 2007 at 7:25 PM

Mike Wallace handles a Cobra link revisited. Pertinent!

sonnyspats1 on September 2, 2007 at 7:25 PM

such as suggesting we preemptively nuke every nuclear power who may some day pose a threat to us.

flipflop on September 2, 2007 at 7:24 PM

Quick, someone post that over on Daily Kos!!!

Only kidding.

MB4 on September 2, 2007 at 7:27 PM

Karl on September 2, 2007 at 7:25 PM

great Karl. Looks like Beauchump has his hands in this.

JiangxiDad on September 2, 2007 at 7:28 PM

This report of a massive strike on Iran, was deliberately leaked. There is no such intention on the part of Bush. It is nothing but a tactic, and highly transparent, to try to scare the regime into behaving. It won’t work. Getting the Bomb is the muslim’s Holy Grail.

However, waiting for a revolution from the people will be like waiting for Godot. Revolutions are not hatched and executed by moderates. Moderates, by definition, do not have the moral certitude and inclination to revolution. Only fanatics launch revolutions. In the muslim world, revolution can only go one way – the way it went in ’79. It can not go back the other way.

So we are left with an Iran that can neither be coerced by the West, nor overthrown from within. That means that Iran will get the Bomb. Which, really, is moot. Radical islam already has the Bomb, in the form of a weakened and doomed Pakistani regime. Once Musharraf is gone, those nukes will be at the disposal of either the Taliban, al-qaeda, or those sympathetic to them. At that point, and I would argue already now, the Iranian bomb program will be redundant to the islamic cause to attack America. The bomb that takes out NYC, will most likely be a Pakistani device and it already exists.

jihadwatcher on September 2, 2007 at 7:33 PM

Thanks, Karl, good catch.

bnelson44 on September 2, 2007 at 7:37 PM

jihadwatcher on September 2, 2007 at 7:33 PM

You may well be right on all counts.

MB4 on September 2, 2007 at 7:41 PM

Quick, someone post that over on Daily Kos!!!

Only kidding.

MB4 on September 2, 2007 at 7:27 PM

Heh…cropped and cherry-picked. :-)

flipflop on September 2, 2007 at 7:51 PM

I think the “Bush getting ready to bomb Iran” is just jaw jaw used to rally the anti-war morons.

I stand by my previous assessment that Bush is not going to attack but rather continue to turn the screws in deeper and deeper until Iran either capitulates (wont happen Zealots know no such) or Iran jumps and oversteps (something Zealots throughout history have mastered). Once they overstep giving US causi belli we will be able to move. It is sad that to do what must be done we are going to have to give first blow to Iran at the cost of who knows how much but in todays world warm-fuzzy qualifications outweigh logic.

C-Low on September 2, 2007 at 7:56 PM

Allah, you’re probably right it’s not a good idea to bomb Iran now but the mounting tension causes me a lot of anxiety. I mean is the US going to wait until Iran are within 72 hours of devoloping operational nuclear weapons before launching a last minute strike? It’s fun in a James Bond movie but very scary in real life.

aengus on September 2, 2007 at 8:54 PM

Couldn’t a “3-day bombing bender” break the very chains that are holding back a pro-west Iranian populace? Seems like a lot of us have heard about them for years (decades?), but they have been unable to gain power. Since we probably don’t have time to wait for a political solution, could bombing Iran back to the 18th Century help those on the inside that are on our side?

Nobody knows.

aengus on September 2, 2007 at 9:46 PM

This just in. AP reports the nuclear standoff between the U.S. and Iran has been upgraded from the pesky ecalating to the nearly defcom rated escalating. Standby for further updates. Gotcha Allah ! Heh Heh Oh by the way not for nothing but Happy Labor Day everyone. You too Allah. zing!

sonnyspats1 on September 2, 2007 at 10:00 PM

An open letter to the people of Iran:

From: FloatingRock
To: People of Iran
Re: Revolution

Iran, the time for revolution is fast running out, please free yourselves from tyranny and end Iran’s status as a threat to the West. This task is inherently your responsibility, however it seems that your opportunity is about to come to a conclusion. At that point our responsibility for our own safety will take precedence and although we’ll try our best to accomplish the task with as little collateral damage as possible, there will certainly be collateral damage, perhaps lots of it. Sorry about that, it really can’t be helped, so be forewarned: stay clear of likely target areas if you value your lives.

Unfortunately for you, people of Iran, one of the primary requirements of the forthcoming mission will be success, regardless of collateral damage. If this eventuality does not meet with your approval then please fix your own damn problems before your opportunity is lost!

FloatingRock on September 3, 2007 at 2:45 AM