Experts say: Pakistan is America’s second worst ally

The liberal Center for American Progress conducted the survey, which polled opinion all around the US foreign policy establishment.

Pakistan was rated as the US’s second-worst ally in this year’s Terrorism Index. Pakistan was also rated the country most likely to become the next Al-Qaeda stronghold and the most likely to transfer nuclear technology to terrorists.

The index, a survey of 100 leading US foreign policy experts, indicates a growing concern in Washington circles at the inability of Pakistan’s military regime to control its Islamicist terror problem.

I’m not sure that assessment is entirely fair; Pakistan has been very helpful in some ways (such as capturing Khalid Sheikh Mohammed) and very unhelpful in some others (the deals over Waziristan). Musharraf presides over one of the most ungovernable countries on earth, a country which probably should not have been created in the first place and which sits between an arch enemy (India) and a void (Afghanistan), with the mullahs to his southwest and China to his north, just to make it more fun. Let’s see the experts try ruling such a place. Meanwhile, some allies, such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan, have sustained and/or fueled terrorism for years, and in Jordan’s case they’re harboring Saddam Hussein’s daughter to this day as she helps lead the insurgency in Iraq. If asked, I might vote the Saudis our worst ally. Or the French, at least before Sarkozy took over.

If Mushy’s our second worst ally, who’s the worst?

While Russia was rated by a third of the respondents as the ally that least serves the US national security interest, Pakistan came in second at 22%. Saudi Arabia was third at 17%. Liberals were more skeptical about Pakistan’s status as an ally than conservatives.

I’m not sure I’d even list Russia as an ally at all. In fact, I’m sure I wouldn’t. Whatever his soul might look like, Putin has proven himself to be a thug who’s interested in resurrecting elements of the USSR by another name. Still, I agree with some of the sentiments that the survey found.

Pakistan was seen as the greater menace when it came to the transfer of nuclear technology. A remarkable 74% said Pakistan is likely to be the source of such technology for terrorists in “the next three to five years.” Even perennial bad boy North Korea only notched a 42% rating and Iran a mere 31%. Liberal and moderates were far more pessimistic about “loose nukes” in Pakistan than conservatives.

For a variety of reasons, that’s probably about right. Pakistan’s A. Q. Khan must figure into the read: Through him, Pakistan has already spread nuclear technology and it’s only a bullet away from a possible Islamist takeover. North Korea and Iran are bad, but both have benefited from Pakistan’s nuclear black market, and neither is as far along as Pakistan is with respect to possessing nuclear weapons that can be used in combat. A significant difference between Pakistan and Iran and North Korea, though, would be that the current government is unlikely to make selling nuclear technology its national policy, at least as long as Musharraf or a non-jihadist has the helm.

Overall, the experts seem to think the world is a dismal place. And most of the experts don’t think the war in Iraq is helping US national security any. I think that whether it helps or hurts our security more depends very much on how it ends.

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