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NYPD matrix to identify budding jihadis before they strike reveals more than two dozen “clusters”

posted at 9:47 am on August 15, 2007 by Allahpundit
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Very cool, although for obvious reasons they don’t delve into the details of how the matrix works. I take a strange pride in the fact that the NYPD is so far ahead of the game on counterterrorism: I’ve got nothing to do with it and they really have no choice given the city’s recent history, but a local force that thinks globally is worth boasting about.

There’s nothing in the Blotter’s account that blog readers don’t already know, including and especially the threat from homegrown terrorists in the aftermath of the Fort Dix and JFK plots, but read it anyway. What they’re describing sounds like FBI profiling at the cell level. At what point do a group of 20-year-old Muslim men who are into the Koran suddenly “turn”?

The report identifies mosques, bookstores, cafes, prisons and flop houses as what it calls “radicalization incubators” that provide “extremist fodder or fuel for radicalization.”…

Using the NYPD matrix, those officials say there are at least two dozen “clusters,” or “pockets,” of individuals in the region who are at various places along the path of radicalization.

In an Intelligence Assessment published at the end of June, New Jersey officials at the state’s Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness noted, “Through its ongoing review of extremist Web logs, the Intelligence Bureau has identified numerous pockets of radical youth existing in New Jersey communities and especially on N.J. campuses.”

The purpose of the structure proposed by the NYPD is to create a tool enabling authorities to measure whether these “pockets” are moving from sanctioned activities toward violence…

The dense, 90-page NYPD analysis is the nation’s first full analysis of the potential for increased homegrown terror in the United States and the first to develop a matrix on which to plot the course of “unremarkable” people as they move toward the potential for violent action, multiple persons familiar with the report told ABC News.

Months in the drafting, the report makes use of a novel “cluster” model to determine where on the path from preradicalized and self-identification to indoctrination and jihad an individual and immediate peer group may be.

A spokesman for the American Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee is naturally outrageously outraged. Exit question: Er, why didn’t the FBI do this?

Update: Influence Peddler reminds me that City Journal had the inside track on the NYPD’s “cluster” model last month. Follow the link to see just how impressive their intel division is — and how stingy the city is being with its research.


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:thumbsup: NYPD

trailortrash on August 15, 2007 at 9:48 AM

Exit question: Er, why didn’t the FBI do this?

Because it’s the federal government. Same reason we haven’t secured our borders, and are relying on local and state governments to fix the problems.

amerpundit on August 15, 2007 at 9:50 AM

Exit question: Er, why didn’t the FBI do this?

Maybe they did and we just don’t know about it. More likely, it’s a good question, and the FBI probably has some explaining to do, which it won’t have to do, because Congressional oversight is more about PC politics than protecting the country. Hats off to the NYPD. Amercica’s finest!

Ordinary1 on August 15, 2007 at 9:56 AM

Sounds like some Bayes’ Theory in action. In the latter part of Vietnam, the military started using Bayes’ theorem to figure out when Hamlets would go VC.

BohicaTwentyTwo on August 15, 2007 at 10:06 AM

CAIR ain’t gonna like this…

WisCon on August 15, 2007 at 10:16 AM

I think its pretty safe to assume we have similar “clusters” in just about every major US city. Thats unsettling. I hope all other police departments are doing as good a job as the NYPD. Even more unsettling, our neighbors to the North are horrifically infested. Try walking through Montreal. Its not the same as it was just 5-7 yrs ago. The same goes for our neighbors to the South. On this site there has been much written about the growth of Hezbollah below our wide open Southern border. Theeyyre Heeerre!

Zetterson on August 15, 2007 at 10:19 AM

A spokesman for the American Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee is naturally outrageously outraged. Exit question: Er, why didn’t the FBI do this?

They wouldn’t publicize its existence. The FBI has to infiltrate these groups and that becomes harder when you tell them you’re on to them.

TheBigOldDog on August 15, 2007 at 10:22 AM

The report identifies mosques, bookstores, cafes, prisons and flop houses as what it calls “radicalization incubators” that provide “extremist fodder or fuel for radicalization.”

The leader of an American Arab civil rights group labeled the NYPD report as “unfortunate stereotyping” and at odds with federal law enforcement findings that the threat from homegrown terrorists was minimal.

Perhaps the report should have included American Arab civil rights groups on that list of “radicalization incubators.” I really wish they had.

Zetterson on August 15, 2007 at 10:23 AM

It figures that NYPD would be first. They were one of the first police depts. to track crime statistics and use them to combat crime. They had a joint task force with the FBI to track terrorists even before the first WTC bombing and from reports and books I’ve read, took the job more seriously than the FBI did.
HEY FEDS GET A CLUE!
START DOING YOUR JOBS!!!!

ic1redeye on August 15, 2007 at 10:30 AM

ic1redeye on August 15, 2007 at 10:30 AM

Correct me if I am wrong, but haven’t most, if not all, of the home grown terrorism busts been made by the people you just accused of not doing their jobs?

TheBigOldDog on August 15, 2007 at 10:35 AM

CAIR ain’t gonna like this…
WisCon on August 15, 2007 at 10:16 AM

…because, as we all know, saying that certain people may have a tendency towards violence is so oppressive that it can drive them to commit violence.

eeyore on August 15, 2007 at 10:37 AM

although for obvious reasons they don’t delve into the details of how the matrix works.

There was a movie on it, check it out sometime, good ninja action.

benrand on August 15, 2007 at 10:54 AM

The FBI may be doing something like this, but I think the whole Federal establishment was spooked by the “Total Information Awareness” project that we heard about after 9/11.

These matrices work. However, they end up linking people from the establishment to terrorists, networks, and other governments. I think it was Condi Rice and President George H. Bush that came up on the early runs of TIA.

In the BCCI case, it was NY prosecutors that kept the investigation alive while the Federal government was doing everything it could to shield US banks from involvement with BCCI’s intelligence network.

gabriel sutherland on August 15, 2007 at 11:28 AM

A spokesman for the American Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee is naturally outrageously outraged.

If they truly did represent “moderate Muslims” wouldn’t the normal response be to say, “Islamic Radicalism is a clear and present danger to our fellow Americans – what can we do to help you”?

That’s a rhetorical question, of course.

Buy Danish on August 15, 2007 at 11:43 AM

Why are these people being let into the country in the first place? Nevermind, I know the answer to that.

PRCalDude on August 15, 2007 at 11:51 AM

I wonder if any of these “clusters” are connected to similar groups in Canada? How many are legal/illegal immigrants or homegrown?

Exit question: Er, why didn’t the FBI do this?

If the FBI is on the case, and using information from the phone growing out of Brian Ross’s head, I would not expect them to tip their hat till they had one in the hole, so to speak. So how do we know the FBI is not already on the case and not just picking up tips from blogs like this?

Kini on August 15, 2007 at 12:56 PM

“Flop houses”?

We should also check all speakeasies, juke joints, Vaudeville and Burlesque theaters, and any other incredibly archaic places where jihadies might hang out.

jic on August 15, 2007 at 1:06 PM

The outrage at data mining and investigative data warehouses started a long time ago.

Here’s a snapshot from 2003, including NYPD Matrix.

desertdweller on August 15, 2007 at 1:27 PM

Sounds like some Bayes’ Theory in action. In the latter part of Vietnam, the military started using Bayes’ theorem to figure out when Hamlets would go VC.

BohicaTwentyTwo on August 15, 2007 at 10:06 AM

Given that his techniques are now being used in such valuable ways, what is the probability that the Rev. Bayes is smiling? The rapid advance of the study of machine learning techniques since about 1990 has been amazing. One reason is that the required processing power and software has come to be available on small servers and, most recently, even desktop PCs.

Kralizec on August 15, 2007 at 1:43 PM

in Los Angeles the LAPD many, many years ago had an intelligence group that was doing this on gangs and organized crime.

the local city council shut it down.

rumor was that the intelligence group was finding a lot of leads to minority politicians.

this was the same bunch that would find a really bad a$$ burgler, follow him around until he robbed a place and then as he left the scene, inform him that thery were the police, call on him to surrender or suffer the consequences.

then call ambulances or coroners wagon as necessary.

urban legend was that on one guy they called the wagon before he came out of the licquor store. (bad form you know).

NYPD probably developed these techniques to get a finger on the bent nosed bunch many years ago.

C

pk on August 15, 2007 at 1:45 PM

The outrage at data mining and investigative data warehouses started a long time ago.

Here’s a snapshot from 2003, including NYPD Matrix.

desertdweller on August 15, 2007 at 1:27 PM

I think you do well to raise the point that the new techniques are threatening. To frame the matter in such a way that readers at this site are more likely to sympathize with our concern, I’ve read a report that Hugo Chavez is accumulating a database of information on his supporters and critics, and that his government search it when making such decisions as awarding jobs to supporters and keeping critics out of them.

Kralizec on August 15, 2007 at 2:00 PM

This crop you get when you irresponsibly and indiscriminately sow Muslim immigrants into an infidel land.

The Koran is a guidebook for theocratic terror.

Except that no one in the Western leadership appears to have ever read the damned thing.

And I say “damned thing” advisedly.

profitsbeard on August 15, 2007 at 6:17 PM

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