Intel jittery as Al Qaeda’s training camps empty out; Update: NYPD maintains alert
posted at 2:19 pm on August 11, 2007 by Allahpundit
Two probably but not certainly unrelated stories for you here, starting with the dumber one first. The NYPD was on full alert for a dirty bomb last night thanks to a report of jihadi chatter from … Debkafile, whose credibility is so low that I actually had people snarking at me in the comments after I posted their item in headlines. The cops had no choice but to take it seriously, obviously, and in their defense some of the chatter was awfully specific:
Police confirmed the increased security was in response to receiving information that a dirty bomb may go off around 34th street in Manhattan Friday evening.
The Empire State Building, New York City’s tallest building, Madison Square Garden and Macy’s department store are in the 34th Street neighborhood.
The feds were “deeply skeptical” but the NYPD took nothing for granted: an alert was sent out for a 50-mile radius and patrols involved choppers, boats, and of course checkpoints. They were set to stand down by noon today if nothing panned out so presumably the alert is already over.
Now for the serious stuff. Must read from Roggio:
On the same day of the release of news on concerns over the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and the loyalty of the Pakistani military, the Asia Times’ Syed Saleem Shahzad reported al Qaeda and Taliban camps in North and South Waziristan have emptied, the Taliban and al Qaeda are expanding into the settled districts of the Northwest Frontier Province, and are reorganizing in both Afghanistan and Pakistan for a major fight.
The Fourth Rail interviewed a senior military intelligence official and a military officer, both of whom are familiar with the situation in the Northwest Frontier Province and wish to remain anonymous. The sources confirmed Mr. Shahzad’s information concerning the al Qaeda and Taliban camps in North Waziristan and the Taliban’s reorganization is accurate. Both sources are particularly concerned about the implications of the emptying of the camps…
The emptying of the camps is a cause for great concern in the military and intelligence communities. “We don’t know where they went to or who was in the camps,” the military officer told The Fourth Rail.. “They are well trained, these aren’t your entry level jihadis. They are dangerous.”
“This is one of the reasons that we are worried about a major CONUS [Continental United States] attack,” the senior military intelligence source told The Fourth Rail, noting the recent influx of news of terror cells attempting to penetrate the US. “If they evacuated their bases, they almost certainly did so out of fear of more than just the Pakistani army.”
Also at the link: Who’s got the launch codes for Pakistan’s nukes? No one’s quite sure. Click!
Update: The alert is still on through Saturday.
Blowback
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Waziristan is going away.
I’m just not sure how or when.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 2:21 PM
Yup.
Allahpundit on August 11, 2007 at 2:27 PM
Are they thinking like a large scale attack in Pakistan/Afghanistan to expand and create their own little official country or is it for jihadi attacks?
Defector01 on August 11, 2007 at 2:31 PM
?????????
With the Chinese frontier downwind? If it happens GW better have some damn good intel to shove in Mao’s face.
Scary stuff Allah……..
Limerick on August 11, 2007 at 2:32 PM
The sooner the better and by US Military choosing I HOPE.
This is just downright scarey! Didnt these camps empty out right before 9/11? Am I remembering correctly?
I know the assassination of the Afghani guy who was proWest and then the camps empty and then 9/11, right?
It has to be maddening to submit info to the Pakistanis and then they phone Osama in his cave! arghhhhhhhhhh!
God Bless and keep us safe. I have every confidence in our military and police, not much in the CIA.
labwrs on August 11, 2007 at 2:37 PM
Might be related to this
Pakistan gunships pound Taliban, Al-Qaeda amid US pressure Fri Aug 10, 2:40 PM ET
MIRANSHAH, Pakistan (AFP) – Helicopter gunships pounded militant hideouts in northern Pakistan as the military scoured mountainous areas on Friday for 16 missing soldiers believed kidnapped by Taliban rebels.
As the United States called for greater efforts against militants using Pakistan’s remote Hindu Kush mountains as a base, the military said at least 10 Al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters were killed in the air attack on Thursday.
The operation also involved ground forces in the restive North Waziristan region near the Afghan border, where military strikes on militants, suspected of launching attacks, have taken place all week.
“The miscreants killed in Thursday’s strike were local militants allied to Taliban and Al-Qaeda,” a security official told AFP.
Military spokesman Major General Waheed Arshad said security forces were focused on squeezing out the militants, who have both local and foreign fighters among their ranks.
“There is no planned operation going on in North Waziristan but we are responding with greater force against militant attacks on security forces now,” Arshad said
William Amos on August 11, 2007 at 2:40 PM
Did they empty the camps in Afghanistan just before 9/11? Anybody remember?
TheBigOldDog on August 11, 2007 at 2:44 PM
I’m not as knowledgeable about this as others. So please understand I’m not being snarky here. I’m asking a serious question. How is it that we know these guys have 29 camps, not 28, not 20 to 30, but 29 camps and we know the names of specific figures who run these camps and we know where they are and yet we don’t have SpecOps guys in there? I’m not saying a full scale invasion. I Understand the multiple reasons why that’s a bad move. But why aren’t we making a move on these camps. Its not like finding a single guy in rugged mountain terrain who sleeps in caves, changes locations constantly and has loyal followers willing to die to protect him. Camps are actual physical locations. What’s the deal here?
D0WNT0WN on August 11, 2007 at 2:44 PM
I’m not sure how effective Pakistan can be here. Their entire intelligence service is crawling with sympathizers, impossible to hide any large scale op.
Best the Paks can do is encircle while Western intel services runs agents in and out the place. Agents = intelligence. Intelligence = targets. Targets = dead MVTs and HVTs.
We should really be capturing these clowns though. Just not sure how to run effective snatch and grabs out of that hellhole.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 2:45 PM
Bring it! It’s time to get this party started!
TheSitRep on August 11, 2007 at 2:46 PM
whoa slow down there Turbo!
AQ ain’t going anywhere anytime soon. We’ve got time to plan an effective campaign here, as opposed to galloping in firing off six-shooters in the air.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 2:49 PM
Let me get this straight. The jihadis are training people to destroy us and we know where they are. We don’t do anything about it. Now we don’t know where they are and we’re worried? There is a chance 1000s will die because of our failure to act. Who will be responsible for what these fanatics are going to do? If this war on terror was a book, it would be fiction because nobody would believe this incompetence.
volsense on August 11, 2007 at 2:49 PM
Don’t we have some kind of aerial observation where we can view where and when convoys are leaving those camps? We see satellite pics of people on the ground where you can identify the person. Is that all a myth? How about human intel? If we are this in the dark…. Someone needs to step up and fall on the sword.
24K lady on August 11, 2007 at 3:00 PM
sounds like god was not willing on this particular day and in this particular place.
C
pk on August 11, 2007 at 3:02 PM
Yah so we burn in there with a light force backed with air power to neutralize Waziristan.
Pakistan street rises in opposition to the invasion and tosses the Western-friendly regime.
Islamists gain control of nukes, we lose a critical ally, and the bad guys in Waziristan have the rest of Pakistan to flee to as a safe haven.
The war on terror is chess, not checkers bro.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 3:02 PM
This is just the latest of warnings about an impending attack.
I’m staying clear of major cities for the next 30 days.
unamused on August 11, 2007 at 3:03 PM
The emptying of camps could be a reaction to the aerial attack in Baghran that took out a scores congregated for that public hanging. The apparent lag could have more to do so with “to do or not to do” decision-making. The propaganda of civilian slaughter didn’t set at all, either, and that may have played a part in the decision-making.
Dusty on August 11, 2007 at 3:11 PM
Punks.
I’ve been saying it for years. They are Punks. Nothing will happen anytime soon. A little pounding and they run.
Given the givens, they are headed either for Iraq or Afghanistan, where they will die.
They have to make a push. Afghanistan offers the opportunity of engaging sparse Western forces. They could hope, but a quick victory is unlikely.
In Iraq, any ramp in violence looks like victory. What’s more the environment does not require engagement of Western forces. Random violence will do.
Agrippa2k on August 11, 2007 at 3:18 PM
So… they know how many camps… where they are… and what they are doing.
Does it bother anyone that Obama was right and we should be going in?
Not that Oh-bomb-a meant it of course.
DANEgerus on August 11, 2007 at 3:37 PM
Mushariff turned a corner when he hit the red mosque. That put him in the enemy’s gunhairs.
Now mushariff needs Bush more than ever. So we dont have to go in just get the paks to chase Al Queda into our gunsights
William Amos on August 11, 2007 at 3:46 PM
Dang. that really sucks.
Weight of Glory on August 11, 2007 at 3:48 PM
It may sound heartless but it is time to stop worrying about civilian casualties. If we know the number 2 of AQ is in a village for certain then that village needs to be carpet bombed. Two or three villages wiped out, the Taliban and AQ will have nowhere to go because the villagers will fight back if they try to move in if the choice is taliban/aq or United States Airforce. What is more humanitarian, not killing civilaians now or seeing millions of Israeli, Indian or American citizens killed by a nuclear weapon later?
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 3:50 PM
No, no, no, no. Christ what is with you people?
You can’t win this war by breeding 10 new bad guys just to kill one. That’s unrefined, clumsy, and just plain stupid. This war isn’t going to be won with bombs and bullets, but with schools, roads, public works, and civil services.
Look at Anbar dude. AQ did exactly what you said. Killed, killed, killed, killed. And what happened? Sunni tribal leaders flipped on the bad guys, we gained an important new ally, and AQ has been all but cleansed from the land.
Chess, not checkers.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 4:05 PM
What is stupid is trying to fight a war using so called 21st century compassion and enlightenment against an enemy with a fourth century mentality but the same weapons we have. Every time we try to avoid actually killing people it comes back to bite us very quickly. That nuclear weapon will not last 6 hours if Musharaff is overthrown by islamofascists and it shouldn’t. I didn’t say we had to rebuild infrastructure that we destroy, that is the consequence they will pay for not joining the 21st century. Anyone who thinks we have seen the worst of this war against islam, and I said islam not islamofascism, is living in a fantasy world. If you haven’t noticed the surge may be working in iraq but islam is taking over the world.
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 4:13 PM
I disagree with you peace. We arent waging war on afganis but on the ideology of the Taliban.
The people in Iraq and afganistan do what they want because they are afraid of them. Just today a governor of Iraq was assassinated because he stood up to Al Queda.
And its hitting somalia too. Two reporters were murdered because they spoke out against the Islamic militants.
You defeat idelogy by discreding it. Not by killing people.
William Amos on August 11, 2007 at 4:16 PM
My guess is as follows:
AQ know that the US will go after a terrorist host country following a large scale terror attack on US soil. These camps are in Pakistan, consequently the US will see itself forced to attack Pakistan, whether the Pakistanis like it or not and odds are they will not.
AQ’s hope: Pakistan will become radicalised and jihadised as a result of a highly probable direct and large-scale US intervention in Pakistani territory. AQ is likely to regard this as a win/win situation no matter what the resulting mess in Pakistan will be.
I would take this very seriously indeed.
Aylios on August 11, 2007 at 4:20 PM
What is stupid is trying to fight a war using so called 21st century compassion and enlightenment against an enemy with a fourth century mentality but the same weapons we have. Every time we try to avoid actually killing people it comes back to bite us very quickly.
Dude they’re not all Islamists over there. That’s an ideology that Muslims are driven to by their environment. Our job is to convince the vast majority of fence-sitters that Taliban and Wahhabist thought (if you want to call it that) is backwards and -most importantly- contradictory to Islam’s teachings.
You do NOT do that that by carpet bombing villages.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 4:21 PM
eh, first paragraph should be quoted.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 4:21 PM
Further win for AQ: US forces will be stretched more thinly than ever. With Iraq far from being sorted out, more forces will need to be deployed in Pakistan.
Sounds like a total disaster for the US and a big step forward for terrorism.
Aylios on August 11, 2007 at 4:22 PM
Excellent. Very well said.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 4:25 PM
I very much hope you’re right Dusty, but I very much doubt it.
Aylios on August 11, 2007 at 4:25 PM
The conservative estimate is 10% of islam is radical. That’s only about 100 million. The rest are followers. Islam has had a 1500 year history of conquest, violence and atrocities. Every area that islam has conquered has taken a step back in development. It doesn’t matter how much postmodern political correct spin is put on it, that’s history.
You must believe that the US has done nothing but spread misery for the last 100 years and somehow if only we change they will change and the world will be wonderful. Excuse me but I missed the latest news report of American citizens burning bodies in the streets, ripping them to pieces and hanging them on street lamps.
So if you were walking alone across the african veldt you would be nice to the hyenas so they wouldn’t eat you?
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 4:26 PM
We can’t convince the majority of fence sitters here not to vote for a lunatic like algore or scoundrel like kerry but we are going to convince islamists that the land of paris hilton knows the right way?
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 4:28 PM
No you don’t.
And you’re still not making a convincing argument that carpet bombing villages is somehow going to help us win this war.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 4:28 PM
Alright, I’m sorry. I mistook this for a serious discussion.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 4:29 PM
but again that means it isnt a conventional war but a propaganda war we must wage. And one we are losing badly.
William Amos on August 11, 2007 at 4:30 PM
Yup. Again, we’re in agreement.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 4:31 PM
Yes. We can, via Satellite make out individual people, but the quality of such footage is poor even on a good day. I also doubt that we can monitor these camps 24h/day every day of the year. If we had the kind of accuracy and consistency that you describe we would have killed these guys long ago.
Aylios on August 11, 2007 at 4:34 PM
And where we probably part company is why I backed a conventional strike against Mecca if a US city is nuked.
I dont want to kill people but the reason Islam is so fanatical is the belief that it is invicible. The holy cities of Islam have never fallen to an enemy in centuries of warfare. This fosters the belief that they have God on their side and that they cant lose.
And look at the Al Asqa mosque. It is in the hands of Israel and it drive the Muslims crazy with hate over that. It makes them feel vulnerable and they hate that feeling.
To shake the faith of the most ardent Islamic you have to prove to him that his faith isnt invulnerable. They teach their suicide bombers that if they die they go to heaven. So killing them isnt a defeat for them.
The Kamikazies were the same way. It took an A bomb to convince the Japanese that there was no way they were going to win WWII.
The slogan in 1945 for the Japanese was “100 million Japanese die proudly”
The slogan for Islam in 2007 is “1 billion suicide bombers will rain down on the west”
How do you fight that kind of fanatism ? You have to prove to it that they can lose everything they cherish.
And that is where you and I probably differ. Fanatics have a completely different value system than the rest of us
William Amos on August 11, 2007 at 4:41 PM
Aren’t you so sophisticated.
You’re a moral relativist, John. You think we are all the same, a guy in pakistan is the same as a guy in belgium is the same as a guy in australia is the same as a guy in Des Moine. Well that might make you feel good but it isn’t how it works. The people next door don’t think the same as you, what makes you think that a pakistani muslim thinks like you?
We’ve been feeding the world for a hundred years, rushing to help any country in need, any group of people. The American people coughed up more money to help the people after the sunami then any other entity on the planet and that doesn’t even include what our government gave. And yet they hate us, John. They don’t all want to come here so they can be us, they want to come here so they can take what we have. You think propaganda is going to change that? The seams are coming apart, pal, and it’s going to get alot worse then it is now.
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 4:43 PM
And what are you, an amateur psychiatrist? One, that’s not true. Two, you’re trying to dig yourself out to the hole that you dug for yourself 3:50pm with ad hominum attacks.
So again, please convince that your carpet bombing theory is somehow valid.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 4:49 PM
No, John, you tell me what propaganda is going to turn around what is happening in the world today?
Carpet bombimg will make them fear us, John. They already hate us but worse, they have no respect for us. If what this country has contributed to the world and continues to contribute does not ear respect then fear must be the alternative. Peopel like you don’t evev use the term Third world anymore because it is politically incorrect. But whether you choose to hide from it or face it, that’s what it is. You can’t negotiate if the parties are on different levels and someone has to give and they aren’t budging.
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 4:56 PM
You know nothing of our enemy, which explains why you have such elementary solutions for defeating them.
ISLAMISTS WANT A MARTYRS DEATH.
And geez would you stop with the lame shots at trying to somehow convince me that I’m a some PC-infused liberal. It accentuates your lack of knowledge, and it’s pretty irritating.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 5:01 PM
peacenprosperity – There will come a time in the not too distant future where I believe we’ll have to cut off aid to many foreign countries. And, we are not alone. We have accomplished nothing by our charity other than breed worldwide contempt for us. That aid has facilitated the growth of huge families, a luxury they’ve never been able to feed but for the past 50 years. Thus, the millions that need/have to immigrate to Europe, Australia, Canada, and U.S.. I don’t see them migrating to Russia, or for that matter, China.
24K lady on August 11, 2007 at 5:02 PM
How is it that we know these guys have 29 camps, not 28, not
and…
I think that what DOWNTOWN is suggesting is not carpet bombing villages, but Jack-Bauer-style precision hits on these camps. Then when the question comes, “Who did that?” the answer would be (with eyes rolling upward), “I dunno…”
Wipe out the training camps = one of the bigger problems solved.
/partial sarc
leepro on August 11, 2007 at 5:12 PM
The way you atack has pretty much got me convinced that you are a liberal, John. At the least you are flatlander, someone who thinks nothing will ever change, everything is just a temporary distraction then life will go on just the same as it always has. I’m not even sure you believe there is a war on terror, John.
No matter our tactics, your appeasement or my brutality, Western civilization will still be fighting this war in 100 years. What appeasement will get us, and in a quicker time span then 100 years, will be a country under siege, where our grandchildren or maybe even our children will really start losing civil rights. A country with borders sealed so tight not only will no one get in but no one will get out. Privacy will be nonexistant and the freeflow of information will be a thing of the past. That is where our current course will get us in 50 or 40 or maybe even 20 years if we think talk and action is going to change the course of things.
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 5:15 PM
Another giveaway, John.
Do you work for the state department?
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 5:17 PM
That’s a mighty big stereotype you’ve got going there peace. You have managed to lump over a billion people into one intellectual bucket.
There are Muslims fighting on our side killing other Muslims around the world. Sometime log on to Michael Yon’s site and watch the IA guys fighting Al Qaeda alongside the Americans. The Red Mosque assault by Pakistan, and the Lebanese Army shelling the terrorists in the “refugee camp” are much in the news now.
Thinking that all Muslims are our enemy may make your thinking easier but having some of them on our side makes the fighting easier.
Keep up the good fight John. You understand that this war will be long enough without uniting one billion people into a single unified wall of Islam.
It will be a long war. Who wins will depend on who fights.
TunaTalon on August 11, 2007 at 5:17 PM
OK, guys. Start convincing me what kind of propaganda is going to make these people love us and turn away from the cult of death?
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 5:22 PM
Tuna will you direct me to the news sites showing the mass demonstrations against beheadings?
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 5:24 PM
What is the alternative to Radical Islam for most of the Islamic World? In far too many places, if you want your child to learn to read, you send them to an Islamic school, because it is the only school. Want to challenge your government? You aren’t going to waste your time on an election in say, Syria, or Egypt for example. From the Mosque, however, you can criticize the government somewhat.
One thing we must do, besides the military approach, is to take away the ends to which Radical Islam is the only means. Yes, there is a very important role for the military to break things and kill people. However, if we can give people another way to educate their children, or change their government, we drain the lifeblood from the whole Jihadi movement leaving only the true nutjobs to deal with. Them we kill. Fast.
trubble on August 11, 2007 at 5:24 PM
Despite what John thinks, I am very open minded. Tell me how we do this.
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 5:27 PM
Because the outrage over our unsecured southern boder was a world wide story, the terrorists have begun to sneak across before we secure them. Bush’s strategy behind the shamnesty bill was to lure the terrorists to a place and time of our choosing. The weakness of our border is too inviting to resist. We will be waiting and will capture them and hold them in secret while water boarding the bastards for information. And because the cells work independently, there will be a long delay before they realize that we have them.
Rove you magnificent bastard!!
csdeven on August 11, 2007 at 5:33 PM
Stop putting words in my mouth. I said that you don’t understand this war or our enemy. I did not say anything about you or what type of person you are. Or whether or not you’re “open-minded.”
None of that really interests me, to be honest.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 5:36 PM
I’m still waiting to hear the incredible diplomatic moves that will end all conflict and make the world love us, John.
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 5:39 PM
No, I’m a military man who has studied this war and our enemy for quite sometime. I studied this exact topic at the University of Tel Aviv in Israel. I’ve studied it throughout my career. I’ve talked to my friends in the Army, Navy, and Marine Corps at length about what works, and what doesn’t work.
In other words, I know my sh*t .
You do not.
And as for me being a liberal? Again this is a stupid point, but I voted for Bush twice. Does that satisfy your weird need to understand my political leanings?
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 5:40 PM
Oh and by the way, I believe in ad hominem. Why shouldn’t the motives behind a persons views be taken into consideration? We all take that into consideration when receiving information from the msm, right? You do believe the msm is biased to the left, don’t you, John?
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 5:43 PM
Ugh. Is it really that simple to you? It’s either carpet bombing villages or no military involvement whatsoever?
Yeesh.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 5:44 PM
Name, rank and serial number, John.
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 5:44 PM
John, are you ever going to tell me how you will accomplish this transformation or are you going to continue your silly liberal circular games?
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 5:45 PM
Hey, I’m an idea man. I leave the details to the engineers! 8-)
Seriously, we don’t need to acheive all of those goals instantaneously. The move to democratize Iraq was much larger than most realize. All of those millions didn’t risk their lives to vote because it doesn’t mean anything to them. It wasn’t the reason we went in, it was more of a “what do we do once we are in?” thing.
In the broadest terms, we are moving in the right direction (or at least we were, haven’t heard much on this front lately). Basically, we are looking to pressure our allies to move towards as democracy as they can without letting the Jihadis sweep into power. That means going slow, unfortunately. But in Egypt and Pakistan, I suspect we are doing quite a bit behind the scenes to nudge them in the right direction. Now Pervez Musharef and Mubarak have their own internal concerns and personal interests, so they resist some, but we have to keep trying.
Look at Lebanon. It’s far too early to say the Jihadis are on the run. But their own countrymen are standing up to them. That means we don’t have to do it. That’s good.
The Palistinians do not have a democracy. Voting is great. Voting isn’t the only thing required for a democracy. A Peacefun transition of power is also required. Followed some time later by another vote and peaceful transition of power and so on. The Palistinians missed that part. If we can get these Islamic countries into this cycle, it will become clear before long that the Jihadis can’t create jobs or provide for the general welfare as well as secular governments. Then they go the way of the Whigs.
trubble on August 11, 2007 at 5:46 PM
What transformation? You’ve completely lost me. If I’m reading you right, you’re either for carpet bombing villages or you’re a liberal. Sounds like a winning strategy!
Serial number? What? This isn’t World War II dude, we use social security numbers now. You can visit OPFOR for more background.
Anyway, listen. Reading your last comments makes me think you’re a bit off your rocker, and I’m going to pop smoke before you start getting really weird.
If you honestly want to understand how to effectively prosecute this war (outside of your brilliant carpet bombing strategy), you can start by reading the Army’s field manual on COIN ops.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 5:54 PM
peace it’s a big world and there will always be conflict. As long as you lump the Islamic whole world into a single bucket you will never see a path to peace and prosperity.
The U.S. is helping Pakistan add vocational courses to their madrassas. The payback will take one or two generations but then it will be a long war so that’s ok. There are many more examples but no magic bullet.
Sorry fine HA folk, this appeal to reason was drafted before peace’s last three posts.
TunaTalon on August 11, 2007 at 5:55 PM
Judging by the condescension you’ve expressed for the opinions of others throughout this thread, using words like dude, bro, Turbo and phrases such as, “No, no, no, no. Christ what is with you people?” and, “galloping in firing off six-shooters in the air”, my thoughts are that you never at any point mistook this as a serious discussion.
FloatingRock on August 11, 2007 at 5:59 PM
peacenprosperity just is not worth it, folks. Anyone who thinks ad hominem is a justifiable way to win an argument of strategy, is not worth talking to.
Dusty on August 11, 2007 at 5:59 PM
John,
Take a breath and keep your power dry. Your work here is done.
TunaTalon on August 11, 2007 at 5:59 PM
I’m done with commenter Peace but I’ll jump in to echo this point.
You’re right. There is no silver bullet. The solution is long term, and it is a hybrid of politics, economics, and the military art.
But what many forget, even in our own military, is that the solution is also religious. Due to PC concerns, the military isn’t fully harnessing Islam to fight Islamists. That’s a terrible mistake. Islam is everything to these people, it can be a powerful weapon if harnessed properly by PSYOP units.
Our failure to do so is one of our greatest mistakes, I think.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 6:02 PM
Heh, forgive me if I underestimated the patronizing qualities of “dude.”
Content is everything, semantics is nothing. You thought wrong, dude.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 6:04 PM
Just exactly what would motivate a Muslim to disavow their culture of death in favor of a peaceful co-existence?
1) Taking them as Muslims first and rational people second, what in their Muslim teachings would convince them to change according to Johns theory?
2) Same question but from peacenprosperity position. What in their Muslim teachings will convince them to give up on their culture of death and live in peace with the rest of the world?
Are there any teachings within the Koran that allows them to toss out what they are currently doing in favor of a ideology that John is suggesting that they will respond to? And if there is, why aren’t they doing it already?
Someone said roads and schools, well we are doing that in South Africa and are having success, but that is in areas that are ripe for a terrorist takeover, but we beat them to the punch by providing basic needs. But that isn’t working as effectively in areas that are over-run with terrorism already.
csdeven on August 11, 2007 at 6:08 PM
Tuna, what are we doing now that we haven’t been doing for 50 years through USAID and all the other foreign aid services and giveaways not to mention the trillions of money from the government as well as from individuals we’ve given through the un.
This is not just a war of ideology, this is a war between levels of social development. I read that the speed of technological development since 1900 was at a level closer to 5000 years when compared to the rest of history. Our own country/civilization is struggling to deal with the changes. In the Third World they are still doing genital mutilations of women, honor killings, excorcisms for aids and other diseases, etc. as well as trying to deal with the speed at which technology is changing the world. It’s out there for anyone to see. Yet we are trying to reach these people in a way that we would react to, not in ways that they would react to. True democracies have never fought each other. Theye are on the same level and negotiate at the same level. These countries have strongmen dictators and regimes for a reason, because they are at a level of social development that causes that.
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 6:11 PM
Define ad hominem, Dusty.
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 6:13 PM
This conversation I’ve allowed myself to get dragged into is silly but I have one last question
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 6:16 PM
John, are you THE John Soltz? Your demeanor is very similar to waht we witnessed from him at the kos convention.
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 6:17 PM
Every comment you have made leaves me asking how you will accomplish your goals. PnP stated exactly why the theory of carpet bombing made sense to him. Instead of hammering him over it, perhaps you could enlighten the rest of us who have not studied in Israel etc.?
And you did start off like the rest of us are just too stupid to figure this out on our own.
I personally don’t take offense, but some do. I just would like some enlightenment.
csdeven on August 11, 2007 at 6:19 PM
Well first I said this:
Then I agreed with this:
Then I pointed out the obvious in response to the carpet bombing suggestion that:
Then I linked to the Army’s COIN field manual for those who were interested.
So I’m not really sure that you read all my comments.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 6:25 PM
I’m not sure I buy that. We have had some hideous practices in this country while we were a democracy. From bleeding the sick to lynchings, there have been some mighty backward social practices that didn’t force us into dictatorship. There’s something else going on here.
Democracy spread far in the 20th century. Japan and South Korea, throughout Europe even eventually behind the Iron Curtain. I suspect it, along with Capitalism, will continue to spread for a simple reason. It’s the worst system out there, except for all the others.
trubble on August 11, 2007 at 6:28 PM
I disagree. Many, if not most people, believe they are smarter than everybody else, but almost everybody has learned to temper their narcissism and treat other people in a respectful way even when they disagree.
FloatingRock on August 11, 2007 at 6:39 PM
Your effort here appears to have inflamed hearts and minds against you, despite the readers’ being your own countrymen. The readers and the Americans in general have been subjected to a lengthy hearts-and-minds campaign, to the effect that hearts-and-minds campaigners of different sorts know how to win hearts and minds. Even when those campaigners do capture American hearts and minds, they seem to hold them insecurely and then to lose them easily.
I think the problems of winning and holding hearts and minds are more difficult than you imagine. Nevertheless, if you were first to destroy the capacity of the Americans’ enemies to make war against them, and if you seized their resources so that they couldn’t regenerate their war-making capacity, you would afterward have both greater leisure and greater resources for winning whichever hearts and minds on which it pleases you to make an attempt.
Kralizec on August 11, 2007 at 6:46 PM
Yes I did read all your comments, but sending me to the Army’s COIN site is not what I asked for.
You Anbar example doesn’t include the fact that the Sunni’s are not pro-American now. They are just basically anti-muslim that don’t do it their way. In order for these same people to accept the US, there has to be a fundamental change in their views toward non-Muslims. My question has been; What in their teachings leads you to believe that schools and roads are going to change the basic belief that is taught in the Koran? If love thy neighbor isn’t a concept they adhere to, why does anyone think it will make any type of change that will permanently bring peace to a religion that has been at war with itself and the world for 1500 years?
Do you understand what I am asking for?
I understand your point about carpet bombing and I have not taken a position. I am trying to get further understanding from you along the lines of the question above.
Perhaps Robert Spencer is the guy I should be asking?
csdeven on August 11, 2007 at 6:51 PM
I think the problems of winning and holding hearts and minds are more difficult than you imagine. Nevertheless, if you were first to destroy the capacity of the Americans’ enemies to make war against them, and if you seized their resources so that they couldn’t regenerate their war-making capacity, you would afterward have both greater leisure and greater resources for winning whichever hearts and minds on which it pleases you to make an attempt.
peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 7:04 PM
Perhaps Robert Spencer is the guy I should be asking?
csdeven on August 11, 2007 at 6:51 PM
Or Hugh Fitzgerald, Roberts “cohort”.
Hugh Fitzgerald of JihadWatch:
The fact that some Sunni Arab tribes have “turned on” Al Qaeda does not mean that now those Sunni tribes are “allied with us.” They aren’t. They are simply getting revenge for the Al Qaeda attacks on them. That’s it.
No change of heart about Infidel Americans. No change of heart about Kurds. No change of heart about the Shi’a, who if not quite “Rafidite dogs” nonetheless should not be permitted to lord it over the Sunni Arabs.
The interpretation — misinterpretation — of the split between the relatively tiny (though murderously effective) Al Qaeda group, and the much larger group of Sunnis who will never acquiesce in their loss of power to the Shi’a, and never — it is out of the question — be true friends, or friends at all, of the Americans, show the limits of the current events.”
***********************************************************
“Of course the Sunnis will never acquiesce in their new role, in an Iraq in which the Shi’a dominate. And of course the Shi’a Arabs will never give the Sunnis what they want, and think the Sunnis will have to take it or leave it, for now the Shi’a control the south, with all of its oil, and the Kurds control the north, with all of its oil, and the
Sunnis control Anbar Province, with all its sand, and some date-palm stands, and of course those monuments built by Ozymanias al-Tikriti, now crumbling rapidly into dust.
And why won’t they? Because of Islam. Islam does not teach the virtues of sweet reason and compromise. It teaches, the example of Muhammad teaches, the example of war, war made through qital, combat, and war promoted by all other means, including propaganda (“pen, speech”) and money, and of course, war made through deception.
How could those who are raised up in Islam, who are surrounded by, suffused by, smothering in, Islam, with no hope of ever getting out of this closed totalitarian belief-system, ever arrive at the kind of compromises, genuinely meant, that the Americans fondly believe they will be capable of, because from first to last, those Americans have misunderstood, and failed to grasp the significance of, Islam?
In Islam there are two possible outcomes: Victor and Vanquished. That’s it. And that is how the Muslims — the Shi’a and the Sunni Arabs, and to a slightly lesser extent — because their non-Arab identity does not reinforce but weakens the strength of their Muslim identity — the Kurds as well in dealing with the Arabs.
Victor. Vanquished. Not a good prospect for advanced Western democracy.
Don’t blame Ameican incompetence in “post-war planning.” Once Saddam Hussein was deposed, everything that followed was nearly inevitable, though the time frame might have been different.
No. Blame Islam.”
MB4 on August 11, 2007 at 7:10 PM
If they know the camps have “emptied out” they must know when the camps are “full“.
Why didn’t they destroy them then?
profitsbeard on August 11, 2007 at 7:13 PM
Hence the belief that carpet bombing is the answer. I’d still like to see if John can come up with an opposite view based entirely on the teaching in the Koran.
csdeven on August 11, 2007 at 7:21 PM
Robert Spencer’s latest story on JihadWatch:
“Internal fighting among Shi’ites kills governor, Sunni infighting kills cleric”
More evidence that the Shiites can’t even get along with Shiites and the Sunnis can’t even get along with Sunnis. So how can Shiites and Sunnis possibly get along?
MB4 on August 11, 2007 at 7:28 PM
Why? Did I say that I was going to do so? Where is that coming from? Opposite view of what? Being carpet bombed?
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 7:35 PM
Right. Whereas carpet bombing them would give them a great reason to get revenge on us.
Enemy of your enemy is your friend. I’ll take our allies however we can get them.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 7:39 PM
Enemy of your enemy is your friend. I’ll take our allies however we can get them.
John from OPFOR on August 11, 2007 at 7:39 PM
I am not for “carpet bombing” either. Well I would not rule it out depending on the circumstances, but I am not for it in general.
As for – take our “allies” however we can get them – remember the fable about the Tiger and the Wolf.
MB4 on August 11, 2007 at 7:43 PM
The enemy of your enemy is not always your friend, although they can sometimes be useful as temporary allies.
FloatingRock on August 11, 2007 at 7:43 PM
Also remember the fable about the Scorpion.
MB4 on August 11, 2007 at 7:44 PM
If it looks good,
And it taste good,
And it feels good,
There has got to be something wrong some where,
So be careful.
- Murphy
MB4 on August 11, 2007 at 7:45 PM
[peacenprosperity on August 11, 2007 at 6:13 PM]
You don’t pay me to you teach basics. Buy a dictionary or try Wikipedia.
Dusty on August 11, 2007 at 7:58 PM
Okay, let’s talk propaganda. I happen to believe that our free press has become the enemy’s most valuable weapon against us. They prevent us from being perceived as the “strong horse”, and they actively disclose secrets of our sources and methods. What can we do about it?
drunyan8315 on August 11, 2007 at 8:18 PM
No, you didn’t say you were going to do that. You have criticized people here because they have called for carpet bombing as a solution. You say there is a better way. Your way seems to be appealing to their better side. I asked you where in Koranic teachings could moderate Muslims turn to that would allow them to choose that better way by nurturing their better side?
csdeven on August 11, 2007 at 8:24 PM
The rules of semantics determine how the content is understood.
Words do count. Content can be understood only from the words.
1. If you think this is circular, GOTO 1.
TunaTalon on August 11, 2007 at 8:54 PM
John:
Darlin’, the enemy of our enemy is NEVER our friend; only a tool to be used in the annihilation of our enemy.
The Muslims know this, which is why we see them using us against their other enemies (Sunni vs Shi’a). Never make the mistake of thinking they are our friends. Show me a Muslim who is a friend of the West, and I’ll show you a secular Muslim (virtually apostate by his own religious standards).
There is no way to win the hearts and minds of Muslims – nominal Muslims (ie: secular/lapsed/cultural) yes; true Muslims (ie: religious/observant/devout) NO. The more devoted they are to the prophet Mohammed and his teachings, the less chance there is to win their hearts and minds – to do so would require turning them away from the teachings of their Koran, Sira and Hadith. And without the Koran, there is no Islam.
There is no room in Islam for co-existence with infidels. There is no room in Islam for reform. Islam cannot be reconciled with the kuffir. It’s them or us. Their “religion” will allow nothing less.
Redhead Infidel on August 11, 2007 at 8:56 PM
Redhead,
If you are right then we should continue to encourage our Muslim allies to kill their Muslim enemies so that in the end we will have fewer Muslims to fight.
If you are wrong then we should continue to encourage our Muslim allies to kill their Muslim enemies so that in the end we will have no one else to fight.
My preference is for you to be wrong.
TunaTalon on August 11, 2007 at 9:04 PM
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