Video: New Al Qaeda web promo warns, “Wait for the Big Surprise”
posted at 10:28 pm on August 1, 2007 by Allahpundit
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It’s about 20 seconds long. Click the image to watch, then come on back.
According to the Blotter, the script reads, “Wait for the Big Surprise” and “Soon — God willing.” They’re paying attention to two images from the clip, with good reason: the photo of Bush and Musharraf in flames and the computer graphic of an SUV, which looks to the Blotter to be part of a motorcade. An assassination plot against Musharraf makes a lot of sense given the spate of A-list AQ leaders who have been calling for his head lately as revenge for the Red Mosque assault. Zawahiri went after him in an audio tape on July 11 (scroll down about halfway to “Aggression against Lal Masjid”) and Abu Yahya al-Libi released a 21-minute video just yesterday eulogizing Abdul Rashid Ghazi and calling for jihad against Musharraf. Ten days ago, Newsweek reported a split within Al Qaeda between the Zawahiri and al-Libi factions over whether to make Musharraf’s overthrow a priority and risk having the full force of the Pakistani military brought to bear on them in Waziristan. That question now appears to be moot so they may have put aside their differences and gotten ready to go all out.
But now look at this image, which flashes by as the fourth in succession after Osama, Zawahiri, and Adam Gadahn:
I don’t recognize him offhand. Or do I? You tell me — same guy or no?
If it’s the same guy then this may have nothing to do with Musharraf. As most of you know, the man on the left is Adnan al-Shukrijumah, who’s allegedly been tasked by AQ leadership with launching a nuclear attack on the United States. The FBI’s been looking for him since 2002. His name popped up again last year after a prominent Pakistani journalist named Hamid Mir claimed that his contacts in AQ told him Shukrijumah was still working on the nuke plot and hoped to launch the attack imminently. Which makes me wonder if that SUV is supposed to be part of a motorcade at all or if the suggestion rather is that it’s carrying a payload in the hatch.
The full video will be out in a day or two; it seems … stupid that they’d telegraph a big plot before it’s come off, but who knows. Exit question: Am I right? Is that Shukrijumah or is it some other jihadi bigwig with whom I’m unfamiliar?
Update: Perspective!
Update: Here’s a higher rez version. Note the mark near his right eye. I can’t find anything online about Shukrijumah having a similar mark, but he hasn’t left much of an image trail. Just those same three or four passport-type shots and that’s it.
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Dirka Dirka Dirka. I feel a that I need to use a few more pages from the toilet side Koran. I’ll be back later a lighter.
Egfrow on August 1, 2007 at 10:33 PM
I don’t think it’s the same guy. The ear lobes appear slightly different though he’s at different angles, and the hairline along the temple appears to be different as well.
So we’ve been hearing that credible threats are out there that something big is going to happen. Perhaps this is a prelude to that.
thedecider on August 1, 2007 at 10:34 PM
Wow, that’s the Terrorists version of Vent.
The Race Card on August 1, 2007 at 10:34 PM
*terrorists’
The Race Card on August 1, 2007 at 10:35 PM
The arch on the right eyebrow appears different too.
thedecider on August 1, 2007 at 10:35 PM
Why spend the money on nukes from a break-away republic when you can just overthrow a government that already has plenty.
Is the messiah truly prophetic? Will we have to go into Pakistan in the near future?
mojowire on August 1, 2007 at 10:36 PM
Are you saying “they all look the same”!? J/k. I’m not sure if it’s him or not, can’t tell from just those photos. I do however think it would be incredibly stupid of them to basically tell us how they were going to do something.
That said, it wouldn’t hurt for law enforcement to be on the lookout for light green, I wanna say 95-97, Ford Explorers (or maybe Mercury Mountaineer?). Likely this is just some idiot who couldn’t find the photo of the cat with the gun, and he just went with the free images available in the graphics program he purchased at Staplesistan.
RightWinged on August 1, 2007 at 10:37 PM
My amateur sluething eyes tells me it’s a different person. The nose.
Pitter09 on August 1, 2007 at 10:37 PM
Either a] it’s a diversion, a head fake, and they have no intention of carrying it out (it’s a coded message regarding another unrelated plot), b] the plot is so far advanced that it’s too late for Musharraf to do anything about it (the Bomb or assassin is already in place), or c] this is for internal AQ consumption meant to pressure one faction and/or promote another.
Thomas the Wraith on August 1, 2007 at 10:39 PM
Just callin’ their shot…
tdau1997 on August 1, 2007 at 10:43 PM
I’m so sick of these dinks.
Don’t they know we all have mortgages to pay yet?
Dr. Gecko on August 1, 2007 at 10:45 PM
August roughly corresponds to the islamic month of Rajab. There are plenty of interesting dates in the month of Rajab. August 8 is Rajab 24, the anniversary of the Battle of the Trench when Mo and his peeps defended Medina from infidel tribes by digging a trench. There’s also the anniversary of the Battle of Tabouk, the last battle Mo participated in personally. Saladin entered Jerusalem in Rajab but I don’t know what day. And Mustafa Kemal of Turkey abolished the caliphate in Rajab. Lots of possibilities.
Thomas the Wraith on August 1, 2007 at 10:52 PM
It’s hard to tell, is there another mug shot showing his right ear a little better? That way we could match it up with the photo on the right.
Zorro on August 1, 2007 at 10:58 PM
I am sick of them too. Is happiness so elusive for these people? Why is the concept of live and let live so foreign to them?
CrimsonFisted on August 1, 2007 at 11:00 PM
I’m no good at guessing faces. I know our intelligence types will be working overtime on all of the possible clues. Musharraf is walking a very dicey tightrope. For those interested in a very in-depth analysis of his status this is a good read
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070701faessay86407/daniel-markey/a-false-choice-in-pakistan.html
There is another article on Turkey and the Kurds that shows the challenges Bush and Rice have to deal with.
Bradky on August 1, 2007 at 11:00 PM
I’m glad you put that link there. Thank you. I was going to say the nose looks fuller, but then right afterwards, on the wanted picture, very similar.
That video hit me a little too much right now. I’ve been watching coverage of that bridge for the last almost 4 hours hours. And of couse my first thought was uh-oh…
PowWow on August 1, 2007 at 11:10 PM
Similar, but thinner in the first.
I think the Big Surprise is that Osama is now officially wormfood.
(Ever heard a worm vomit?)
profitsbeard on August 1, 2007 at 11:10 PM
Who cares? Send both of them to meet their virgins.
csdeven on August 1, 2007 at 11:14 PM
Should show the Al Jazzera video I sent about the new red mosque ?
Im willing to bet that the Islamics are fed up with Mushariff and they have agensts inside the ISI that could help them.
Control of Pakistan’s Nukes is a big deal. And not too long ago they shot a missle at his helo.
Maybe Obama will get his pakistani war.
William Amos on August 1, 2007 at 11:17 PM
I cant say whether its the same guy or not.
as for this…
thats the islam terrorist SOP. They have to try to convert you and if that doesn’t work they warn you , then kill you.
It’s in the koran, in that order. ( I’m sure someone knows where in that book it is ordered.)
shooter on August 1, 2007 at 11:19 PM
Allah, there is someone else and he is a REAL bad guy. The guy is Shi’a and master planner in Hezbollah, but he also has links to al Qaeda.
Info
wiki with old photo
He is a shadowy figure, but I do have a more recent photo with full mustache and beard.
Check the hot air email in 10.
Connie on August 1, 2007 at 11:22 PM
I think it is the same person. (Way to go Allah. I never would have come up with that, and I “studied” the pictures of Shuk months ago when you first posted on him.)
If you look at the three FBI pictures that Kilgore linked, the one on the left has a clearer picture of Shuk’s right temple, and the hairline at the temple appears quite similar. Also, there are video links on the same page that are helpful too.
IrishEi on August 1, 2007 at 11:28 PM
The photos could be the same guy. The lines around the mouth and hairline actually seem consistent. Hard to tell with the nose and the different angle.
Gives me the willies!
MITX on August 1, 2007 at 11:30 PM
Im probably over thinking this concerning the shot of the SUV, but all of its windows have clear reflections save the rear window. Just an observation. tin foil hat off/
Weight of Glory on August 1, 2007 at 11:34 PM
Darn what are the chances that Cair and Ellison sponcer some event at Capitol Hill and they get used to launch an attack ?
Im not saying its ordained but If I wanted to do something spectacular that would be how Id do it.
Of course of something DID happen Im sure the left would say it was Bush who really did it.
William Amos on August 1, 2007 at 11:35 PM
Because there are 72 virgins waiting on the other side.
BacaDog on August 1, 2007 at 11:35 PM
It was either Steve Emerson or Col. Hunt who once said on FOX News that if the terrorists are busy sending out threatening videos that we should take that as a good sign. If they were able to carry out an attack, they would do it without warning—that’s their M.O. If they just keep sending out videos, then that’s all they’re capable of at present.
Let’s hope he’s right.
IrishEi on August 1, 2007 at 11:37 PM
I studied that SUV earlier. It doesn’t appear to be a motorcade to me, although it does not have a license plate. I would imagine it has something to do with how the payload would be carried. I tried to get a make and model on the vehicle, but can’t pinpoint it definitively.
The eyebrows do look different on the second photo rather than the first.
These previous Bin Laden releases could just be a ‘on your mark, get set’ message to sleeper cells somewhere in the world. As has been mentioned the three times is significant in Islam. I suspect that the first two Bin Laden videos were ‘ready and set’. The next one will probably be ‘go’. (shear speculation on my part).
I’m sure we’ll find out soon. It’s probably ‘just’ a Musharaff assassination attempt because he is more accessable to them. We’ll see. I’m sure that the event will be timed to some significance. Maybe 9/11 again, maybe 8/11. It really wouldn’t be hard for someone who wanted to do damage to do serious damage to this country. We’ll see.
ThackerAgency on August 1, 2007 at 11:39 PM
Also found a video at Gateway Pundit of Shukrijumah from last year, but it’s too dark to see him. Scroll down past the video and there is a shot that has been lightened up. He’s still sporting a shorter beard and mustache in this one.
Connie on August 1, 2007 at 11:44 PM
Even in the unlikely event that AQ would hook up with Mughniyah for an operation, they wouldn’t be touting him in one of their videos. He’s a Shiite. Besides, Mughniyah is middle aged now. The man in the video is clearly young.
Allahpundit on August 1, 2007 at 11:45 PM
It’s a computer graphic. They used a graphic to illustrate the London bombings in the intro to a video they did last year to. The details of the image don’t mean anything, I’d guess.
Allahpundit on August 1, 2007 at 11:47 PM
Looks like a Ford Explorer, boxy 90’s~ models.
modnar on August 1, 2007 at 11:48 PM
Any idea what the building in the background is?
Connie on August 1, 2007 at 11:49 PM
That’s what it looks like to me, too. Has a surreal look to it.
Connie on August 1, 2007 at 11:50 PM
Hah! No I am middle aged, Allah. He’s my younger than my baby sister.
Connie on August 1, 2007 at 11:51 PM
scratch the “my”
Connie on August 1, 2007 at 11:52 PM
Al Qaeda has a big surprise? I hope it doesn’t involve bridges in a city that has problems with the local muslim population.
Guardian on August 1, 2007 at 11:56 PM
Come on… enough with the terrorist speculation.
Bradky on August 1, 2007 at 11:57 PM
I don’t think they are the same guy. al-Shukrijumah’s ears are much lower (there’s a panel of three photos of him in google images (ignore the guy on the right, it’s another irrelevant dude) and the nose of the unknown guy in the vid is too broad (yes, it could have been altered but which is more recent).
I agree the “motorcade” remark is probably way off base. It’ more likely the SUV is just in traffic. It almost looks like it is going into a parking lot.
I am wondering what is at the bottom of the Bush photo. Is that just a podium or are those cans of gas, do they represent buildings, or is it something else?
One way I thought of reading it was, SUV (idea), Osama (his idea), Zawahiri (organized it), Unknown guy (to implement it), and target (Bush — he’s in the center of the pic).
I’m curious if one can put steganographic embeds with vid like one can with pics? Anyone know?
Dusty on August 1, 2007 at 11:58 PM
By the way, according to my pet jawa, there was a possible sighting of Shukrijumah last September in Austin, TX.
Connie on August 2, 2007 at 12:04 AM
The nose does look a bit broader on the man in the video, but note this photo of Shukrijumah (on the right).
It’s absolutely possible that I’m wrong. But in that case, who the hell is the guy in the clip? He must be awfully important to be grouped with Osama and Zawahiri.
Allahpundit on August 2, 2007 at 12:06 AM
One of the links today from the BBC referred to the “so called war on terror”. Are these the so-called terrorists?
Entelechy on August 2, 2007 at 12:07 AM
Yes, that person reads this blog and just e-mailed me in response to this post. She thinks it is Shukrijumah in the video.
Allahpundit on August 2, 2007 at 12:07 AM
Hey, anyone got an original? I mean one where the ‘tards at ABC didn’t splice their ad at the end?
Dusty on August 2, 2007 at 12:08 AM
It looks like the image of a car on fire/exploding. Screen Capture
modnar on August 2, 2007 at 12:09 AM
Heh. Too early to rule anything out at this point.
Guardian on August 2, 2007 at 12:11 AM
If they’d harm Messrs Bush or Musharraf, imagine what would happen to a few regions in Pakistan. Mr. Cheney wouldn’t be writing letters to his grandkids.
Entelechy on August 2, 2007 at 12:15 AM
Angry Muslims threatening western civilization is like saying it’s hot in North Carolina during the summer. DUH! These people must be extermintated into the sands of history.
SouthernGent on August 2, 2007 at 12:18 AM
I didn’t see those photos, AP. Thanks.
So the surmise would be that is a Shukrijumah photo before his nose job so it’s really early. That might explain him looking like he has a little more meat on him, Shukrijumah not being able to dine at restaurants as frequently and all that. Would being a little fleshier make the area under his eyes bulge out so much though? I don’t see that at all in any of the Shukrijumah photos.
I could be wrong about the ears. I tried the angle of pose in the mirror and all that just to see and I could be. (No wisecracks, I am not Shukrijumah!)
Dusty on August 2, 2007 at 12:20 AM
For the bridges? See what people more knowledgeable than I are saying about it in the other thread.
Bradky on August 2, 2007 at 12:24 AM
[modnar on August 2, 2007 at 12:09 AM]
Maybe, but when I watch it @ 200% it doesn’t look anything like a vehicle and appears to be multiples, maybe, maybe using rubber stamp tool.
Dusty on August 2, 2007 at 12:25 AM
For what it’s worth, the person I mentioned above who thinks she had an encounter with him last year says she thought even at the time that he’d had some work done. Perfect teeth and freakishly clear skin, almost like a laser peel. He claimed to be Mexican and presented a Mexican matricula consular ID — but oddly enough, didn’t have a spanish accent.
Maybe he had a nose job or maybe it’s just the angle of that image that’s fooling us. Look at it this way: what are the odds that there’d be someone else in the upper ranks of AQ with the same skin tone, similar eyes, similar big honking nose, and similar small mouth? Quite a coincidence, if it’s a coincidence.
Allahpundit on August 2, 2007 at 12:29 AM
Our videos are so much better than there’s:
content warning (language):
http://www.comedycentral.com/sitewide/media_player/play.jhtml?itemId=11923
Vincenzo on August 2, 2007 at 12:31 AM
If someone could photoshop a beard onto the top center picture. That’s the friendlier one of the five, without so much stark white in the eyes. In the video the teeth throw me off. Maybe then photoshop the video cap to not show the teeth and then compare the two photoshops. Just a thought, with zero talent to do this.
Entelechy on August 2, 2007 at 12:42 AM
Brr…link here
Entelechy on August 2, 2007 at 12:44 AM
Ummm, this is how they are giving him orders. Or giving orders to someone else. The images are telling:
1. What to use
2. Under who’s authority it’s being ordered
3. Who is doing the actual ordering
4. Who’s idea it was (as in, do the plan this guy talked about)
5. Who will do it.
6. Who the target(s) are.
Now as to the when. . . . and what is the significance of the backwards ‘?’
- The Cat
MirCat on August 2, 2007 at 12:44 AM
Oh I seriously doubt that it was a terrorist attack. I just prefer to not say it wasn’t until at least a very basic explosive residue test is done. Bridges and other infrastructure are prime targets. I’ll wait until it can definitely be said that it wasn’t an attack before I will rule it out. Right now all the attention is on recovery. When the focus shifts to investigative we will know more.
Guardian on August 2, 2007 at 12:48 AM
Backwards question mark http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irony_mark
- The Cat
MirCat on August 2, 2007 at 12:54 AM
Ok who has Jack Bauers cell number?
Mojack420 on August 2, 2007 at 1:09 AM
Yawn. Lazy terrorism. It’s when Islamists try to make us uneasy and afraid without having to do any of the legwork.
The real ops, they keep under wraps.
John from OPFOR on August 2, 2007 at 1:10 AM
Unless he went dark and this is the only way to reach him. And if they have an op to get an nuke, you better believe once he had it he’d be a shadow in the corner of your eye from then on waiting for the right time to strike.
- the Cat
MirCat on August 2, 2007 at 1:13 AM
I agree, AP. Where you getting the hi-rez photos, dude, and do you have a link to a clean video yet?
———–
[MirCat on August 2, 2007 at 12:44 AM]
Nice. I forgot about Adam Gadahn in my scenario. Good point about the backwards “?” too.
Dusty on August 2, 2007 at 1:19 AM
eh, are you just theorizing here?
I would be very, very surprised if Al Qa-ida could manage to function on the nuclear level right now. What resources they have left are either tied up fighting in Iraq or holed up in Waziristan.
John from OPFOR on August 2, 2007 at 1:24 AM
Let’s not jump to conclusions–maybe the ‘big surprise’ is pulling for Ron Paul and him winning his first primary?
andycanuck on August 2, 2007 at 1:25 AM
[MirCat on August 2, 2007 at 12:54 AM]
I think the backwards “?” is the standard ? in arabic.
Dusty on August 2, 2007 at 1:27 AM
although I should caveat, while Al-Qa’ida doesn’t scare me right now, their involvement with the Russian mafia and Pakistani intelligence does.
John from OPFOR on August 2, 2007 at 1:30 AM
Every time al-Qaeda has broadcast dire “warnings” since 9/11 they’ve been nothing but bluster.
Let’s just hope their big surprise is either mass suicide or surrender.
Halley on August 2, 2007 at 1:34 AM
I’m sorry, I don’t see the backwards ? in that link.
Yeah, theorizing and speculation.
- The Cat
MirCat on August 2, 2007 at 2:17 AM
heh. our politicians and the MSM do it all the time
SilverStar830 on August 2, 2007 at 4:41 AM
Will they not ever realize that previous failures might be a sign that their god just might not “be willing”. They care nothing for Allah’s will and use it as a mask their own.
ricelchew on August 2, 2007 at 5:11 AM
They consider -everything- (success and failure) to be the will of Allah.
PBoilermaker on August 2, 2007 at 5:28 AM
Another meaningless we-will-kill-you video. When you can’t actually do what you want, put out videos saying you can. It’s the next best thing. And yes, they all look alike. There are probably 1.2 million men in Pakistan alone that are dead ringers for each other. And worse, they are all named Mohammad. Cædite eos. Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius.
jihadwatcher on August 2, 2007 at 5:55 AM
Well , I say there will be no peace till we kill them all. But I have discovered a hole in my own plan. There are over 1 billion jihadist, assuming half are men, that will require Allah to come up with 35 billion virgins. From a population just over 6 billion.. well you can see our quandary.
TheSitRep on August 2, 2007 at 6:38 AM
TheSitRep on August 2, 2007 at 6:38 AM
Well…. is there anyhting saying that the 72 virgins have to be of the opposite sex?? Maybe the next martyr’s virgins are the 72 bipedal explosive devices that went before him….
mrfixit on August 2, 2007 at 7:13 AM
Actually nothing in the koran states that each martyr has to get his private 72 virgins. So I take this to mean that all the jihadists have to share the same 72. Nor does it state they have to be female. Nor does it state that they have to be attractive. After all, there is a reason why they are virgins. It could get ugly down there in hades.
jihadwatcher on August 2, 2007 at 7:36 AM
There are over one billion Muslims. Estimates about jihadists are about 200 million.
“Kill them all” is not the answer unless you yourself are a jihadist.
Bradky on August 2, 2007 at 7:42 AM
Firstly I was being facetious.
And then there is the fact that Muslims are taught to hate the infidel and to kill them where ever they are, so by there own doctrine all Muslims are de facto jihadist.
If you think the ones that are just silent and docile love you, think again. They are just waiting.
TheSitRep on August 2, 2007 at 8:03 AM
[MirCat on August 2, 2007 at 2:17 AM]
Really sorry, MirCat. I knew I should have added where. It’s at the bottom, under Punctuation, first sentence.
Dusty on August 2, 2007 at 8:34 AM
I say thats not the same guy. The nose looks a little different. But perhaps thats just because he’s smiling in the second photo? I can’t express how much I want to wipe that smile off his face.
Zetterson on August 2, 2007 at 9:33 AM
Well, that was a poorly produced video. They were, at one point, using chromakeys and decent animation. Seems like they are using Microsoft Movie Maker. I’m not too intimidated by people who can’t steal a copy of Adobe After Effects.
Krydor on August 2, 2007 at 10:02 AM
Given those two photos there’s no way a layman, or probably even anybody, is going to come to a decisive conclusion as to whether or not that’s the same guy. There’s nothing in either photo to rule it out, however; they are similar, but that’s about all one can say.
As for any hypothetical Austin connection to Islamic terrorism, I find it hard to believe the city itself would hold much appeal as a target; too small, too low-profile, too little economic or other strategic value. But it may be worth noting that Fort Hood is only about an hour’s drive north of here.
Blacklake on August 2, 2007 at 11:33 AM
Don’t think it’s him. Look at the ear in relation to the ear canal. The canal can’t be altered as that would mean redoing most of the structure of the skull. The known picture of Shukrijumah shows the ear canal at the level of the bottom of the nose. The unknown individual’s canal is approximately at the corner of the eye. Even the top of Shukrijumah’s ear is lower than his eye. For those of you who think this could be accounted for by raising Shukrijumah’s chin, the unknown person would have to raise his chin almost 2 inches to bring the canal inline with the bottom of the nose. That would make his picture similar to the mug shots we see on the news of wanted gangbangers with their heads cocked back. So, I vote with Dusty’s original thought.
Catseye on August 2, 2007 at 11:59 AM
You do realize that even minimal tilting of the head one way or the other will change your perception of this greatly in the ID photo, right?
The men in the two photos are similar. They might be the same man, or they might be different similar-looking men. Based on the poor quality of the ID photo, attempts to draw any sort of conclusion beyond this are like arguing if a particular cloud really looks like a rabbit or not.
Often “I don’t know” actually is the best possible answer.
Blacklake on August 2, 2007 at 1:20 PM
If they nuke us, will we finally nuke them?
If they nuke the Freedom Capital of the World, will we nuke the Islamic Capital of the World?
If they nuke the Capitalist Capital of the World, will we nuke the Islamic Capital of the World?
Tim Burton on August 2, 2007 at 2:17 PM
Never was any good at word search :)
So, with, “Wait for the big surprise,” being a question; it’s less telling us (or Bush and Mushi) to wait for it and more asking the oprative, “Why are we waiting,” or, “How long do we have to wait?”
- The Cat
MirCat on August 2, 2007 at 3:28 PM
Yawn. Terrorists who can, shed blood. Terrorists who can’t, make threats.
Stop trying to talk us to death you Muslim hammerheads and attack us already. We have a lot of ordnance lying around collecting dust. Give us an unstoppable reason to drop it in Waziristan.
Tantor on August 2, 2007 at 5:37 PM
Sitrep and Tim Burton:
Listening to your “Final Solution” talk is not all that dissimilar from the yearnings of Adolph Hitler.
“When can we nuke em?” sounds like you relish the thought of one of our cities being hit by a WMD.
“We should kill em all” because they are all that way is dishonest at best.
Bradky on August 2, 2007 at 6:26 PM
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