Comments on: July consumer confidence soars

By: Bradky

Bradky — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 22:59:35 +0000

The mortgage issue could become a real problem. Bankruptcies are up and home prices are starting to stall if not fall in some places.
Anyone who is younger than 30 doesn’t really know what a real recession feels like. It’s not pretty. If the economy course corrects a little this is normal and not cause for too much concern. But like 2000 the effects won’t really show up until the new president is in office. Pundits will react accordingly.
The housing issue affects the new home construction and a lot of blue collar jobs in turn.

By: shooter

shooter — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 17:59:50 +0000

In my view, the biggest problem we have, and will have, is the bad money lent out for the past few years by scores of mortgage houses. The insanity was in 125% mortgages, the below prime notes, ‘first time buyers’ loans to anyone, and of course loaning money to illegals that you cant find.
How long did they think it would run? There is a massive amount of bad paper out there and when those homeowners/ loan recipients go south and can’t pay, there will be NO equity to resolve so then the banks will be near red for a while…maybe a long while.
What all this does to wall street, I don’t know. But the money chain has a definite ‘bad link’ in it today.

By: Bill C

Bill C — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 16:21:09 +0000

Jaibones on August 1, 2007 at 11:00 AM

Coincidentally, I will be driving around the near Southside trying to run over Kos Kidz listening to the Immigrant Song. Aaah, ahh, ahhhh, Aah, I come from the land of the ice and snow…

Bryan on August 1, 2007 at 10:48 AM

Bryan, Please don’t take this the wrong way but a lot of people look at these backward looking economic indicators and think that everything is going to be fine while the forward looking ones are pretty grim. Both Bush and Clinton benefited from an overindulgent Fed. Easy money produced the Nasdaq and housing bubble which was like giving more drugs to an addict and thinking because their withdrawal symptoms have abated then there is no problem. There are no good ways to deflate a bubble. Someday our society will pay a heavy price for this malfeasance.

By: lorien1973

lorien1973 — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 15:26:59 +0000

It was odd that the growth was like 1.3% and now its 3.4% or something. I thought after it went down to 1.3; it was recession imminent; personally.

I’m in retail (online), so its something i dread, but the economy has been so good for so long, that i felt it had to be around the corner. Guess not.

By: Jaibones

Jaibones — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 15:00:28 +0000

That was a litte OT, wasn’t it? Since I’m out of bounds, might as well play this shot anyway. Dennis Miller had a nice little interview with Michael Yon this morning; Yon is terrific.

Plus, he came back from all his commercials with Zeppelin, which is always nice.

By: Jaibones

Jaibones — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 14:59:00 +0000

The company I most recently worked for — American Home Mortgage, formerly First Home Mortgage in Chicago — was the latest bold-faced, red letter headline at Drudge, as their stock closed Friday at 10.47 a share, and then couldn’t open on Monday (bad weekend).

When it finally traded again on Tuesday afternoon, it was at 1.4 a share. Dragged down the whole market. This was a really solid conforming mortgage banker, but they had a crazy uncle in the attic — a really ugly second mortgage portfolio — that broke through the upstairs window and fell off the roof into the street.

Oops.

By: Bryan

Bryan — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 14:48:06 +0000

zane on August 1, 2007 at 10:46 AM

Where do you get “rosy” out of “more positive than negative” and notes that there’s a credit threat on the horizon?

By: zane

zane — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 14:46:34 +0000

That is how important the housing bubble was to our economy. I am a conservative but I will not be willfully blind to the fact that easy credit was responsible for much of our economic growth for at least the past 10 years. Too bad the only person talking about this is that loon, Ron Paul.

Bill C on August 1, 2007 at 10:42 AM

exactly things are not as rosey as bryan thinks, shame ron paul is such a dweeb.

By: Tony737

Tony737 — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 14:45:41 +0000

Right on Bill.

When the economy was in the Klinton recession and Dubya was just taking over, it was all his fault. The media talked about the economy all day long, blaming Bush before he enacted any policies. After the tax cuts took effect, the media suddenly forgot about the issue. Bias? Naaaah.

By: EricPWJohnson

EricPWJohnson — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 14:43:36 +0000

Its Bushes fault :)

By: Bill C

Bill C — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 14:42:37 +0000

As a futures trader I can tell you that consumer confidence is a backward looking indicator. The US economy has one major problem and that is the unwinding of the housing bubble. Mortgage equity withdrawals, people taking equity out of their homes, subsidized spending, via the wealth effect, over the past few years to such an extent that we would have had about 1% GDP growth without it.

That is how important the housing bubble was to our economy. I am a conservative but I will not be willfully blind to the fact that easy credit was responsible for much of our economic growth for at least the past 10 years. Too bad the only person talking about this is that loon, Ron Paul.

By: BillLalor

BillLalor — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 14:22:06 +0000

I am sure this will find its way to page 22C of many newspapers.