The “hot” summer
posted at 1:00 pm on July 23, 2007 by Bryan
Ahmadenijad promised a “hot” summer. Signs are pointing in that direction.
The Syrian military is notoriously weak and incompetent. Having a ring-side seat to the Israeli-Hezbollah war last summer has taught it some valuable lessons:
The Syrian Armed Forces number about 650,000 troops, including 354,000 reserves. They are equipped with fairly old Soviet-era tanks, artillery, armored cars and warplanes that would be no match for those of the Israel Defense Force in a conventional war.
Taqi said Syria took an important lesson from last summer’s war between Hizbollah and Israel: The Israeli rear is vulnerable to long-range artillery rockets. Hizbollah fired some 4,000 rockets in 33 days of intense fighting that battered the Israel Defense Force and damaged its ability to deter others.
One Syrian defense official said Syria would avoid a direct, classic war with Israel, seeking instead a guerrilla conflict on the front lines while firing rockets and ballistic missiles at strategic and civilian installations.
Syria has Soviet-made SS-21 missiles and has built a large arsenal of Scud ballistic missiles, the D variant with a 700-kilometer range. Syria also builds artillery rockets of various calibers ranging from 122mm to 240mm, and has bought other types from Russia and Iran with ranges up to 200 kilometers.
“The next possible Syrian-Israeli war will be more like a war of cities rather than battles on fronts or in the fields,” the Syrian defense official said. “It’ll be a war of attrition that Israelis are not good at.”
The Syrians have previously fought the Israelis using conventional tactics, and were roundly defeated. Syria can and will manufacture Kassam rockets and hammer at the Israeli rear during any coming war between the two, while the conventional IDF hunts for the increasingly unconventional Syrian army and its more unconventional, and more experienced Hezbollah allies. The strategic nub for the Syrians is that the Israelis would probably be able to march on and take Damascus quickly. They have probably factored that in; Assad and his top lieutenants would hide as Nasrallah did last summer, and conduct their guerilla war from bunkers buried somewhere outside the capital. An Israeli incursion into Syria would be fought according to an Iraqi template — let the enemies take the land and capital, and use the people to resist and attrit them. Such a war would leave Syria in ruins, but would also leave the Israelis devastated and divided, and vulnerable to attack from other enemies. Read the rest of the article to see that junior axis of evil member Syria is certainly preparing for this war.
But on the other side of the world, US ally Japan is re-arming.
Today, Japan is America’s biggest partner in developing and financing a missile defense shield in Asia. Some Japanese ground and air force commands are also moving inside American bases in Japan so that the two forces will become, in military jargon, “interoperable.”
—
Here in Guam, American and Japanese pilots simulated intercepts and air-to-air combat for two weeks. In the final days, each side took turns pummeling the tiny island with bombs.
Col. Tatsuya Arima, the commander of the Japanese squadron, said such bombing could protect Japanese grounds troops or vessels from encroaching enemies…
Japan’s military has become less shy in projecting its power away from home. Japan lacks the nuclear submarines, long-range missiles or large aircraft carriers that amount to real power projection.
But it is acquiring four Boeing 767 air tankers that will allow its planes to refuel in midair and travel farther, as well as two aircraft carriers that will transport helicopters and, with some adjustments, planes capable of taking off vertically. The United States has welcomed the changes while pressing for more.
Japan is very interested in buying the F-22, and has with the US jointly developed its first new fighter, the F-2. With its new aerial refueling capability, Japan could strike targets in North Korea without US assistance. As Japan’s military stands now, it’s larger than the UK’s in manpower and on the cusp of major power status. Japan is stepping up to become America’s strongest military ally.
But the question of the age is, are conventional militaries relevant? Western and Westernized militaries fight using conventional doctrines and restraints; the enemies of Western armies don’t. This summer may show us what the future of armed combat is going to look like.
(thanks to Chris)
Blowback
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The United States hasn’t won a war since we stopped being as ruthless as our adversaries. We flattened Germany and Japan, and when Japan refused to surrender we nuked ‘em. Now I am not advocating nuclear war but there isn’t anything wrong with bombing people back to the seventh century if that is what they want. We really are soft and lazy thats why a bully picks on you in the first place. It make thier inferiority complex go away for a short while.
deadbackpacker on July 23, 2007 at 1:16 PM
The only reason it worked last Summer was Israeli restraint. They didn’t level every city and town in Lebanon in response. If Syria tried the same tactic the Israeli’s would level the entire country without mercy and keep bombing until they stopped. That’s why a conventional military is not only relevant but essential. They have the ability to “go Roman” at any time.
TheBigOldDog on July 23, 2007 at 1:16 PM
60 years ago this would be unthinkable. My, how time heals all wounds. Are my grandchildren going to be staunch allies with the muslims? I can’t see it, but neither could my grandfather concerning Japan. Time will tell.
Swinehound on July 23, 2007 at 1:17 PM
Having lived over there for four years, I can tell you that Japan is the best ally we have in the world right now, bar none. Most Americans don’t know about it because we tend to watch Europe and the Anglosphere more than Asia, which is understandable.
Bryan on July 23, 2007 at 1:21 PM
Swinehound on July 23, 2007 at 1:17 PM
We will never be “staunch allies with the Muslims”, we will either defeat them or be forced to submit to them. Submitting to them will not make us their allies or them our allies, it will make us their subjects.
doriangrey on July 23, 2007 at 1:23 PM
*Ding* We have a winner.
War is not about weapons. War is not even about soldiers. War is about WILL. The WILL to do whatever it takes to win.
The enemy has WILL, we have Harry and Nancy.
I wonder how many (millions of) Americans have to die before we regain our will and throw the Harry Reids of our day on the scrapheap of history where they belong?
JayHaw Phrenzie on July 23, 2007 at 1:23 PM
Syria is counting on one thing: Israel will abide by US RoEs. Syria is violating every military edict by arming to fight the last war (by proxy) it had, not the upcoming one.
Any mass Israeli deaths occur due to Syrian rockets, prepare to see any options, including tactical nuclear strikes, on the table. As TheBigOldDog stated, “They have the ability to ‘go Roman’ at any time”
TheEJS on July 23, 2007 at 1:24 PM
Leaving out the Aussies, eh Bryan?
TheEJS on July 23, 2007 at 1:25 PM
the Syrian defense official said. “It’ll be a war of attrition that Israelis are not good at.” •
An unrestrained Israel, is not someone to be blustering at, bucko.
captivated_dem on July 23, 2007 at 1:26 PM
Bryan on July 23, 2007 at 1:21 PM
While in college I dated a Japanese citizen for three years and would have to agree with your statement in both aspects. However being as I live in SoCal, we here in SoCal probably pay more attention to Asia than the rest of the country. If only because they are who are on the other side of our ocean.
doriangrey on July 23, 2007 at 1:28 PM
No. Japan is just militarily stronger and with the potential to be even stronger, by a long shot, than Australia. Just take population, for one thing. Australia has about 20 million people; Japan has 120 million. Or economics–Japan is #2 behind the US; Australia isn’t even in the top 10. Or defense budgets. As of 2005, Japan is #4 on defense spending while Australia is #13. None of this is to knock Australia, which is a great US ally. But Japan is and will be stronger and once it revises its pacifist constitution, it will only gain in strength (until demographics catch up with it, anyway).
Bryan on July 23, 2007 at 1:32 PM
TheEJS on July 23, 2007 at 1:25 PM
I dont think Bryan meant to or was diminishing the Aussies in any way shape or form. The Aussies are great allies of ours, they however are quite the independent bunch. They are in many ways kind of like old west cowboys, we can count on them in a fight and know they have our back, but they are going to go their own way and do their own thing pretty much up until the time their help is requested.
doriangrey on July 23, 2007 at 1:33 PM
That just completely depressed me. It’ll do even more damage to Israel’s deterrance. I hope the new generals can cope with this new incredible challenge.
AlexB on July 23, 2007 at 1:40 PM
Yeah, if a nation state, such as Syria, started a war with Israel, it would be very different from the two “Lebanon” wars where Israel was trying to sort out PLO or Hezbollah from the general population.
forest on July 23, 2007 at 1:41 PM
Israel should forego a ground war and bomb every bit of Syrian infrastructure if the summer turns hot. Leave Assad the choice of reconstructing or rearming his country when he crawls out of his underground lair. After last summer, I doubt that Israel has the will to fight a sustained ground war or occupy any territory. The West can be defeated by bodycounts, so why give Syria the opportunity to win. Syria would still be in ruins, but the devastation of Israel would largely depend on the success of the scudhunts and the accuracy of the scuds. There may even be a chance of forcing Syrian regulars and irregulars from their defensive positions into a face saving offensive, negating the advantages that they had counted on from their guerilla strategy.
rw on July 23, 2007 at 1:41 PM
Ok best POTENTIAL ally, for me I’m just lil biased due to Aussies being an ally in every war we’ve had from WW1/WW2 to Vietnam to OEF/OIF. We’ve hadn’t had to ask the Aussies twice, though I do concede Jap SDF have tried to find ways around their Constitution to help out (like minesweepers during Korean War).
TheEJS on July 23, 2007 at 1:42 PM
Bryan, while I agree that Japan is a solid ally like the UK, I wonder about the demographic decline that Japan is on. They are having fewer children and are an aging nation. I just wonder how that will impact their ability to help us ten or twenty years down the line?
deadbackpacker on July 23, 2007 at 1:44 PM
“Now I am not advocating nuclear war but there isn’t anything wrong with bombing people back to the seventh century if that is what they want.”
What makes you think the Iraqi people or even the Iranian people want this? Cruelty is not the answer here, effective CounterInsurgency Operations is.
BohicaTwentyTwo on July 23, 2007 at 1:48 PM
I’m sure the Germans in general didn’t want the holocaust to happen. But when you allow leadership to form roaming gangs of cronies killing or imprisoning mass numbers of people in concentration camps, you can’t give the public a free pass.
If Western ideals are something they stand for, then they have to fight and, if necessary, die for them. If not, the consequences of their actions must be swift and with the heaviest of hands.
TheEJS on July 23, 2007 at 1:51 PM
In one sense, yes. Without conventional western militaries, the enemy wouldn’t change their methods. The Syrian military is 650,000 strong. Something has to deter that. Unless your comment is only arguing for some modified structure based primarily on adaptability to enemy methods, a conventional military is still required.
Dusty on July 23, 2007 at 1:51 PM
I’m just lil biased due to Aussies being an ally in every war we’ve had from WW1…
TheEJS
Wait a second here, you guys didn’t have much to do with WWI until 1917. If I recall correctly, the Aussies (like we Canucks) fought under UK command. That’s because Australia wasn’t technically a country yet, neither was Canada.
Ah, fun and games.
Krydor on July 23, 2007 at 1:52 PM
I guess my comment is directed to the extremists who wish for a return to pure Islam as praticed by the prophet. But I still feel that by not denouncing the extremists, the supposed majority of Muslims gives them tacit approval. If we must demonstrate our resolve let it be by bombs and missles instead of ground assaults.
deadbackpacker on July 23, 2007 at 1:55 PM
supposed peaceful majority, thats how it was supposed to read
deadbackpacker on July 23, 2007 at 1:56 PM
Commonwealth of Australia is still technically not a country yet, does that mean I have to retract my entire statement? Chief of State, under the CIA World Factbook, is Queen Elizabeth II. Silly little Canadian with silly lil wordplays…
TheEJS on July 23, 2007 at 1:57 PM
“But the question of the age is, are conventional militaries relevant?”
Conventional Military are still the primary of war. The only reason “attrition resistance insurgency” exist at all is for one reason:
1) The West has lost the stomach to fully leverage Conventional war like in the past against a Insurgency. The idea of clean civilized war has evolved to the point were its even our fault that terrorist can kill their fellow civilians randomly with car bombs.
War is not warm and fuzzy not pretty and nice nor should it be made so. To make it clean is to condemn yourself to eternal war.
If anyone doubts this go read up on the Werewolves of WW2 and how the allies easily curshed them and those who dared host them. Imagine a Chicom military rather than a US military in Iraq today, Falluja would be the name of visible flat black dot on the Western desert of Iraq and the insurgency would have been uterlly crushed by 05′.
C-Low on July 23, 2007 at 1:58 PM
Yeah, but your top half of your heads kept bouncing up over the top of the trench when you talked so the Germans could pick you guys off so we had to come in and save your asses.
Bad Candy on July 23, 2007 at 2:02 PM
Bad Candy on July 23, 2007 at 2:02 PM
I’m goin’ down to South Park gonna have myself a time,
Friendly faces everwhere humble folks without temptation,
doriangrey on July 23, 2007 at 2:16 PM
forest on July 23, 2007 at 1:41 PM
I haven’t been following Israeli politics closely, as of late. I fear Olmert might be a restraining factor though.
God love the Aussies and Scots!
captivated_dem on July 23, 2007 at 2:18 PM
There’s been a lot of buzz lately regarding the possibility of a major attack on Israel on the 9th of Av, the saddest day on the Jewish calendar. I think it begins in about 3 hours.
RedWinged Blackbird on July 23, 2007 at 2:24 PM
This is exactly why we need to stay in Iraq until the job is done. The U.S. and Japan had been the bitterest of enemies, but the postwar rebuilding process under General MacArthur transformed that nation into a staunch ally. Something the Defeatocrats conveniently ignore.
infidel4life on July 23, 2007 at 2:25 PM
The use of “asymmetric warfare” against superior Western conventional militaries is one of the topics that Victor Davis Hanson examines at length in his book, “Carnage and Culture.”
His conclusion, in a nutshell, is that when enemies of Western societies, from the Hellenistic age to the present, resort to such things as targeting civilian populations or suicide-style desperation tactics, those actions usually end up backfiring: sufficiently aroused, Western societies throughout their history have shown themselves capable of responding with a degree of ruthlessness disproortionte the the provocation. It was Japanese adoption of suicide tactics in 1945, for example, that ultimately swept aside any lingering American squeamishness about using atomic weapons.
The trick with using asymmetric warfare against a modern Western society is to know where to draw the line. Especially in the age of post-modernism, multiculturalism and political correctness, the West has made itself uniquely vulnerable to “Death by a thousand cuts.”
On the other hand, sending hundreds or thousands of missiles raining down on civilian population centers is much more likely to draw the kind of relentless, crushing response that Hanson writes of.
If Hezbollah, for example, had been more effective in killing Israeli civilians with its Kassam rockets during the recent fighting in southern Lebanon, or than Saddam Husein was with his Scud missile pot-shots in 1991, it would have come as no surprise to have seen the Isrealis let slip the hounds of hell in response. But as those rockets were largely ineffective except for propaganda value, the threshhold wasn’t met and the Israeli government dithered.
For the Syrians to conclude that all they have to do is be more effective at targeting Isreali population centers than Hezbollah or Hussein was is to draw precisely the wrong lesson, one that will end up showcasing just how astonishingly lethal a Western society can be when confronted with a painful enough dosage of “unconventional” warfare.
Spurius Ligustinus on July 23, 2007 at 2:27 PM
BTW, the Japanese F-2 looks like an F-16.
infidel4life on July 23, 2007 at 2:29 PM
It’s certainly transitioning. It seems the likes of China and Russia still have lots of conventional capabilities that we can’t summarily dismiss for all time. Yet the world is moving inexorably towards the eventual ability of what Tom Friedman called “Superempowered individuals” (e.g. bin Laden) to carry out their own massive non-state actions for which conventional militaries are not at all relevant. My guess is that for the foreseeable future we will be unable to foresee what the combination of massive conventional and nearly sole war actions will occur.
About the requisite ruthlessness needed to succeed in war mentioned in the comments above, I wonder if that is at all possible any more, as CNN, Reuters the AP et. al. is on every scene during the actions to show every bloodied body, grieving relative and car swarm.
eeyore on July 23, 2007 at 2:31 PM
EJS,
Not at all, just saying that Australia wasn’t a country and that WWI wasn’t your war until 1917. I’m semantics man.
Technically, you’re referring to the British Commonwealth as it relates to WWI and, by and large, the same thing for WWII. Based on current alliances and so forth, it’s still the Commonwealth that is your strongest ally. Can’t really single out the Aussies. Besides, the phrasing of the sentence annoyed me.
They are an independent country now.
Bad Candy,
It’s aboot freedom, it’s aboot liberty.
Krydor on July 23, 2007 at 2:31 PM
While I hate to admit it … the Syrian strategy seems effective against the United States.
At least for the moment.
But if they try it with Israel, they may be in for a very big surprise.
As others have noted … the western powers continue to fight with the gloves on, while our enemies aren’t just bare-knuckled, their kicking and scratching and gouging like there are no rules.
Israel is not America. Israel has demonstrated its willingness to fight back. And unlike America, any war with Israel is a war with all of Israel. Many Americans argue that we aren’t in a fight for our survival. Israelis don’t have that luxury, not with a tiny geography and just a few cities. If attacked enough, Israel will fight back … for real.
It might be a very good lesson for the Arab nations to learn.
By the way – sooner or later, even the apathetic U.S. is going to start fighting … for real. Sooner or later, the terrorists are going to go just a bit too far – they’ll cross a line that they don’t even know is there – and it’ll be our turn to gouge and kick and scratch.
And we have much, much bigger claws. God help them when we decide to use them.
And God forgive us if we do it later rather than sooner.
Ending this war, using our full might, is not barbaric – it will be a mercy. The sooner its over, the more people will be saved.
The liberal way – this endless pussy-footing around – is going to ultimately be far more cruel and far more barbaric.
We’ve already seen this lesson played out throughout history.
Professor Blather on July 23, 2007 at 2:32 PM
infidel4life–I was about to say that.
I think you can put a spoiler and ground effects on the F2, though.
see-dubya on July 23, 2007 at 2:33 PM
That’s because it’s based on the F-16, but it’s larger and heavier and designed primarily to bomb ships.
Bryan on July 23, 2007 at 2:34 PM
Wow – I had no idea.
In the long run … is this something to be happy with … or worry about?
Professor Blather on July 23, 2007 at 2:35 PM
Rearming Japan is long overdue. Long long long overdue. Creating a separate military power in that region will be a thorn in the side of China AND North Korea, especially given how adept the Japanese are technologically.
Yes, but it won’t be until a couple of U.S. cities are radioactive, and I live in a prime target. You’ll have to carry on the fight without me, Blather.
PRCalDude on July 23, 2007 at 2:36 PM
The F-16 is the best airframe out there. There’s zero point in reinventing the wheel. The only other thing worth trying would be building it out of composite to give it longer legs.
PRCalDude on July 23, 2007 at 2:37 PM
“The Fast and the Furious – Tokyo Supersonic”
infidel4life on July 23, 2007 at 2:38 PM
I imagine there will be a point where people reach an emotional snapping point, as Spurius points out, and the lefty media outlets will likely keep their traps shut out of fear of an enraged public, or they’ll try to undermine and caterwaul and beg for dialogue and understanding, at which point there will a massive backlash against them.
Bad Candy on July 23, 2007 at 2:40 PM
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA!!!
Bad Candy on July 23, 2007 at 2:41 PM
I’m afraid – scratch that, I know – that you’re right. That’s just about exactly what its going to take before we get serious.
Which pisses me off endlessly. I already know what the history books will say a century from now. And we won’t do anything until its too late.
Liberalism may literally kill you.
But who knows? Maybe the Israelis will take care of business for us.
Professor Blather on July 23, 2007 at 2:42 PM
Well, I can think of two things that the next-gen Japanese fighters will probably have: stealth and VTOL. They did just buy two new helicopter carriers that can launch VTOL planes with some modifications. The F-2 isn’t stealthy and can’t do VTOL.
Bryan on July 23, 2007 at 2:44 PM
Be happy about it. The Japanese are on our side, and that’s not gonna change soon. I’d worry more about the ChiComs or North Korea, the Japanese are nervous about them too.
Bad Candy on July 23, 2007 at 2:45 PM
One key concept you leave out is the information war.
IMO we would be much further along in Iraq except that our own Media is complicit in aiding the enemy by forwarding propoganda, and holding our troops to such an extreme standard that they become less effective…
Michael Yon finding the village that Al Q massacred, and then none of the MSM picking it up, while there were two or three stories dis’n our miltitary is a perfect example of this.
Last summer Israel lost the information war… the media was directly complicite and KNEW they were showing propoganda, but showed it anyway. This turned world opinion away from the Israelis… and gave sympathy to Hez to the point of the UN interveining. Hez is now rearming under the sheild of the UN troops….
We gotta either get the media and UN under control… or we are going to loose this war of cultures.
Romeo13 on July 23, 2007 at 2:45 PM
Pimp my fighter?
Bryan on July 23, 2007 at 2:46 PM
I hear the Japanese are making a bunch of pink ones with Hello Kitty painted on it. It’ll be the first wave of any attack, disarming enemy forces with its adorable mascot, then dropping merchandise to further distract the enemy. Then a wave of conventional forces swoops in to finish them off.
Bad Candy on July 23, 2007 at 2:49 PM
Since guerrilla warfare has become the conventional way to fight a war, we might have to go back to the WWII era style of warfare. Indiscriminate carpet bombing of entire cites until the citizenry decides to turn on the guerrillas.
csdeven on July 23, 2007 at 2:52 PM
At 8,000 degrees relevance has its benefits
EricPWJohnson on July 23, 2007 at 2:57 PM
Who needs VTOL when you have a 1200 mile long aircraft carrier sitting off the coast of Kim and China?
We didn’t send a massive FREIGHTER of plutonium to Japan back in the 90s because we thought they might start up the Greater East Asia Coproserity Sphere again. We sent it to them because we figured they might need it for more then kilowatts.
Limerick on July 23, 2007 at 2:57 PM
The F-16 is a good airframe, but there are better. As I recall from some usenet discussions I tracked involving some folks from NASA Dryden some years ago, the F-16 has some negative aerodynamic qualities. Essentially, there are regions of the otherwise “normal” combat flight envelope a pilot could command the F-16 to enter that would cause the plane to depart. To avoid this, the fly-by-wire system detects when the plane is being ordered into one of those states and simply ignores the pilot input. While this is obviously a solution (the F-14, for instance, had some similar issues, but no FBW to preclude a “bad” input, merely pilot discipline), it’s what initially gave the F-16′s control system the reputation of being a ballot box–the pilot votes on what he wants the plane to do, and the plane takes it under consideration.
One might think this is a general criticism of all aerodynamically unstable airframes with fly-by-wire, but it’s not. Supposedly the F/A-18 airframe (the A and C model, at any rate) has none of the F-16′s critical instabilities, so the plane will always respond to inputs from the pilot throughout the entire flight envelope.
Barring the F-22 (whose handling details I don’t know and would guess are probably not public), the most aerodynamically advanced airframe, in terms of pure flying qualities, is the Su-27 family.
Blacklake on July 23, 2007 at 2:58 PM
This is great news! Does anybody know if the USS Kennedy is in any kind of shape for Japanese to use?
Harpoon on July 23, 2007 at 2:58 PM
More technology, less man power. There is big progress on remote vehicles including fighters that are not limited by g-force. Americans and thier allies are militarily far superior the anyone else. Our problems involve mush spined politicians and an ever increasing weak kneed public. The migration from rural to urban has made the public too urbane for the meaness winning a war demands.
Ironically, maybe all the MS13 gang members here will elevate the american meaness factor.
saiga on July 23, 2007 at 2:59 PM
Krydor
I would say with the utter destruction of Canadian/ANZAC troops at Vimy Ridge and Bullecourt, US soldiers were the only thing that saved “your war” as part of the British Dominion from German victory. That and the 116,950 deaths US had. Besides when were we neutral?- US bankrolled the Brits and gave munitions to the Entente.
Being a semantics man, you do have to realize Australia is technically NOT an independent country. They never had the Canada Act of 1982… or is my history wrong? Never can tell as a history major.
And for the rest of you on a high with Japanese Self-Defense Force capabilities, I give you this: HORROR. I rest my case.
TheEJS on July 23, 2007 at 2:59 PM
Yamamoto isn’t dead EJS….just well hidden.
Limerick on July 23, 2007 at 3:01 PM
The F-16 is the best airframe out there. There’s zero point in reinventing the wheel. The only other thing worth trying would be building it out of composite to give it longer legs.
PRCalDude on July 23, 2007 at 2:37 PM
20 years ago, I designed and built the instrumentation to measure the speed of a spherical projectile, leaving a compressed air gun and impacting various man made materials. Graduate students used this measured speed to calculate composite deformation characteristics. I’m sure, composite technology has come a long way since then.
captivated_dem on July 23, 2007 at 3:02 PM
Touche, salesman.
TheEJS on July 23, 2007 at 3:03 PM
I say, “Let the Dawg off its chain!”
Miss_Anthrope on July 23, 2007 at 3:04 PM
Australia is focused on Indonesia as their main threat. They also have occupation troops in the Solomon Islands to keep the peace.
I don’t think they like a leadership roll in foreigm military actions, but they do show support for US and UK diplomacy.
saiga on July 23, 2007 at 3:04 PM
I would say with the utter destruction of Canadian/ANZAC troops at Vimy Ridge
The what now? You mean the absolute victory of Canadian troops at Vimy. We routed the Germans after everyone else failed, and did so before the USA officially entered WWI. The toughest, most fortified German position was swept away in a day by Canucks.
Krydor on July 23, 2007 at 3:07 PM
You mean two weeks of over a million shells of bombardment, 10,000 casualties, and assaulting an insigificant piece of real-estate is a victory? I have one word for you: Kaiserschlacht. Google it! You may find out the Germans turned around from this “defeat” and destroyed the BEF and French armies, only the AEF under “Blackjack” Pershing saving the day. Try reading Myth of the Great War, wash away that central canadian communist propaganda.
‘sides nothing your country ever did throughout the war was as great as “The Lost Battalion” of the 77th Division.
TheEJS on July 23, 2007 at 3:15 PM
They do not have to good at it. The new laser missile defense system deployed along the frontline will render kaytushas and the like useless. Oh the heartache, a salvo of Kaytusha’s blow out of the air… Israel will adapt. A western press no longer able to carry terrorists water and a western population very unsympathetic to terrorists and their ilk or the media that loves them will politically take many restraints off of Israel. Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran will overplay their hands.
Theworldisnotenough on July 23, 2007 at 3:20 PM
Those Krauts took to the Molson, poutine and fries those guys gave them like a fish to water. When the Germans all fell asleep from their Canuckistani bar grub, the Canucks ambushed ‘em! Wiped out every damn one of the Germans. I’ll say this, Canucks are a crafty bunch.
Bad Candy on July 23, 2007 at 3:31 PM
JAPANdoes not need our assistance in the development of aircraft. That Mitsubisi you drive was manufactured by a company who originally built military armarment including war planes, as far back as WWI. Check out the last photos on the link. This is where the US Air Force got the inspiration for our X15 in the late 1950s that led to space exploration. The Japanese and Germans were ahead of the US in the developement of Jet Aircraft.
sonnyspats1 on July 23, 2007 at 3:33 PM
EJS,
The Canucks took and held Vimy, when everyone else failed. This is simply historical fact. That Vimy was one of the most important places during WWI is also not in dispute. Not after, but during. That we suffered minimal casualties is also well known, as you cited the number while omitting that two years prior the French lost 150,000 on that ridge.
Krydor on July 23, 2007 at 3:47 PM
Japan is capable of high-tech manufacturing, but it’s been largely out of the military production business quite a while. I don’t think there’s much question they could tool up to impressive levels in time, but at the moment the F-2 is about what they’re capable of, and it isn’t entirely an indigenously designed or manufactured aircraft. They can take on a lot more than most US military aircraft export customers, but they can’t do it alone, either.
The Ohka has about as much in common with the X-15 as the Me 163 did. All three were propelled by rear-mounted rockets, but that’s about the end of the similarities. And most of the more radical post-WW2 American (and for that matter Russian) aircraft design was based on German sources, not Japanese (the more advanced Japanese stuff, for that matter, was also based on German work).
Blacklake on July 23, 2007 at 3:49 PM
I think Syria is also depending on their allies in the UN (and the US Senate IMHO) to restrain Israel as well as the their allies in the MSM to give a one-sided depiction of the war (just like last summer!). They learned that properly handled PR can be very effective.
What they may not realize is that Israel may have learned a thing or three from last summer’s war as well.
I can already hear Murtha calling the IDF ‘cold blooded killers’.
CrazyFool on July 23, 2007 at 4:06 PM
Very well said!
revolutionismyname on July 23, 2007 at 4:09 PM
All very interesting.
I wonder what Rumsfeld’s part was in these developments. He was about the only ‘major player’ that really seemed to understand what warfare was going to look like in the near and foreseeable future. While everyone else in the ‘political-military-industrial complex’ was concentrating on how to fight the previous war better, he was trying to fight the next wars better.
LegendHasIt on July 23, 2007 at 4:17 PM
Yeah, those Russkies can build a plane. That has vectored thrust, doesn’t it?
PRCalDude on July 23, 2007 at 4:22 PM
Olmert, Livni and Barak don’t seem to have learned anything, nor are they likely to. Now that their approval rating is at something like 1% they should hold elections so people who do know what they are doing can run the country.
aengus on July 23, 2007 at 4:27 PM
CrazyFool on July 23, 2007 at 4:06 PM
Yea, but they need to hope this happens before Israel gets really pissed and really scared at the same time because if those two things happen at the same time Israel is very likely to turn the heat up to 20 or 30 million degrees, over Damascus and Tehran that is.
doriangrey on July 23, 2007 at 4:28 PM
I’m only suprised EX-Marine Murtha hasn’t already.
I love the whole “redeploy” strategy. To where, dip****?
BKennedy on July 23, 2007 at 4:35 PM
India’s newer Su-30′s do. I’m not sure about Venezuela’s or China’s. But thrust vectoring doesn’t really have much to do with the aerodynamic quality of the airframe, it just expands it. It’s a way to make the airframe do things it wouldn’t normally be capable of doing (i.e., to keep it flying when it normally would fall out of the sky).
Rather, the Su-27 airframe is (as I understand it) excellent because it’s predictable and controllable throughout a very wide conventional (i.e., non-thrust vectoring) flight envelope, from supersonic speeds all the way down to very slow, very high angle-of-attack maneuvering. Essentially, the plane will keep flying at points where many or all other (non-vectoring) fighter aircraft will stall out or otherwise depart controlled flight.
Not that the airframe’s aerodynamic handling qualities are the whole picture by any means. Engines and avionics and reliability and radar cross-section and missile loadouts and training are each at least as important. In terms of raw performance the Su-30 seems to outclass the F-15C, but that doesn’t mean I’d bet money on a third-world Su-30 squadron pitted against a USAF F-15C one.
Blacklake on July 23, 2007 at 4:49 PM
The “in-service” members of the Su-27 family don’t have vectored thrust. The prototype version of the Su-35, as well as the since-cancelled Su-37, did.
steveegg on July 23, 2007 at 4:54 PM
Just put a beacon on them to light up if they get near Pearl Harbor.
I wonder how those will do against Godzilla or Mothra?
Mothra would be awesome if it could just Make N. Korea without getting to tired.
Hening on July 23, 2007 at 4:59 PM
You do realize your entire argument is broken by those two words?
The Germans won an overwhelming majority of victories against Entente who could only save their butts in the allied press accounts (there actually WAS NO “Battle of the Marne”). Reason that you hear constant BS about Vimy, or Verdun, or Somme, or Cambrai was because those were the best you could do, measured in meters, while the Germans measured in miles. Had the fine dominion and Entente gotten their way, American troops would’ve be deployed as replacements, not autonmous units, to France.
You want to take about a real “Vimy Ridge”, I give you Belleau Wood; 10,000 casualties, Army 2nd Division with USMC brigade, took a ridge without any artillery support. You want to see German fear of the Entente, General Bohm sums it up in his order to the 28th Div: “…it is a question of whether the claim that the American Army is equal or even superior of the German Army is to be made good.” He need not remind his soldiers they were better then the French, British, and Canadian.
TheEJS on July 23, 2007 at 4:59 PM
Thanks for the correction, Blacklake. I didn’t know the Indians had incorporated thrust vectoring in their newest Su-30s.
steveegg on July 23, 2007 at 5:02 PM
We quickly flattened the insurgency that followed our defeat of Germany. Any town that hosted “Werewolves” was shelled till they were handed over to allied troops. Civilian casualties be damned. Had we kicked out all press and taken this tact our troubled would have been over long ago.
However, we ignored, for the most part, the insurgency that followed our own civil war and it raged for 100 years. Reconstruction was abandoned by 1873 and night riders and the Klan terrorized the south till the civil rights struggle.
SCOTUS judge Hugo Black was a klansman. And then there’s our favorite senator from West Virginia….
manfriend on July 23, 2007 at 6:02 PM
One of the recent British aviation milporn mags (don’t recall which one–there are usually two at the Borders, and the names of both escape me) has a nice shot of a flight line with all the tailpapes hanging down. I don’t believe they have the full-blown 3D vectoring that was seen at airshows on the Su-37 (or whichever variant that was) though. It’s a 2D system similar to that of the F-22 (from what I read they go plus or minus 15 degrees).
Blacklake on July 23, 2007 at 6:06 PM
I know Slim Pickens passed away in 1983. But, wouldn’t it be great to see him riding a warhead packed missile down into Damascus?
YeeeeeeeeHaaaaaaaaaaaa.
saved on July 23, 2007 at 6:19 PM
I have often argued this point. We have the means to win any war but not the will while our enemy (Islamists) have the will but not the means…. yet.
Yakko77 on July 23, 2007 at 6:21 PM
Blacklake’s followup comments to this are accurate. F-16′s (until recent advances) could and would ignore pilot input in specific flight regimes, having a purely disconnected FBW system. (The “stick” is barely larger than a gaming console joystick, with nearly the same freedom and limits of movement) The F-14, on the other hand, uses a fully mechanical linkage to the actuators, the computer inputs being of the sensor variety, with the exception of the autopilot coupler, and even when the APC is active the flight stick moves with the inputs because it is still mechanically linked. In a pure FBW bird, you don’t get the same feedback in the control stick when the computer makes a flight adjustment/correction. Weird when you are used to tactile feedback from your jet.
As for the falcon being the “best airframe”, single engine, single tail makes it far too vulnerable, especially for the Japanese where most flights are over water. It’s the Porsche Carrera of fighters, fast and pretty. The Tomcat would then be the Shelby Cobra 427/DOHC, or maybe a Hemi ‘Cuda, if you will. Yeah, it’s retired, but it’s still the finest fighter around.
Sukhoi’s are nice, if you like rolling engines every 75 flight hours or so, and can accept a radar with a 65nm track limit.
Freelancer on July 23, 2007 at 7:17 PM
Blacklake on July 23, 2007 at 3:49 PM
Yes as a member of The Axis the Imperial Navy was given German rocket technology. Toward the end of the war they also refined and extended its uses to include the Ohka Cherry Blossom. If you look closely at the photos in the link you will see the under carrage mount of the Ohka slung under the belly of an assist plane. I wonder if this was an attempt to reach mainland USA. We inherited Japans and Germanys tecnology as the spoils of war. I am not arguing the prowess of Messerschmitt Inc., but I think Japan could be a formidable ally in the WOT. Just sayin….
sonnyspats1 on July 23, 2007 at 7:21 PM
This is really the only approach that works. Sorry, but it’s true.
PRCalDude on July 23, 2007 at 7:54 PM
The F-18 is pure FBW isn’t it? The stick doesn’t move.
PRCalDude on July 23, 2007 at 7:57 PM
Yes, there is the one key issue with the Lebanon Syria Comparison:
Israel was worried that the Government of Lebanon would fall if they hit too hard…
But Israel has no such love for Syria.
Israel was hesitant but still used Combined Effecs Munitions in Lebanon. In Syria I expect that leaving random bomblets across the countryside would simply be a side benefit.
(As for Japan, I LOVE Japan. They have one of the healthiest socio-cultural structures on the face of the earth. While every nation has problems, I really do love the Japanese.)
Now If I could just find a nice Irish-Japanese girl to settle down with…
Jones Zemkophill on July 23, 2007 at 8:00 PM
First, you actually have to be in the 21st Century to be be bombed back to the 7th. Since most of those regimes are in the 7th already, it won’t do much good, unless you were meaning 7th Century BC….
Tim Burton on July 23, 2007 at 8:00 PM
I’m a big fan of war “gaming” future wars, and am positive most of the possible scenarios mentioned above are being or have been “gamed” by our forces already. I would imagine the goal of these exercises would be to minimize what we are seeing today in parts of Iraq. The old saying, “Live and learn” has no better student than US armed forces. And what we learn, we will share with allies.
Zorro on July 23, 2007 at 8:01 PM
Nice plane…makes me think “Honda F-18″. I wonder how the fuel mileage is??
gary on July 23, 2007 at 8:08 PM
Cool, Japan rocks! The IDF also flies a modified version of the Falcon. But the F-15 is the King … well, it WAS, until the Raptor came along.
Tony737 on July 23, 2007 at 8:22 PM
EJS,
Are we talking about the same war, here? The one where the lines pretty much stagnated in 1915 for both sides is the one I’m talking about.
Anyway, I’m waiting for some kind of clarification with regards to the importance of the ridge itself. I’m also waiting for the retraction regarding the decimation of the Canadians on Vimy.
I understand the penchant for revisionism and 20/20 hindsight, but by the standards of the day, it was an amazing feat with minimal loss of life.
Krydor on July 23, 2007 at 9:03 PM
Why not sell them the USS America?!?
LOL!!! I kid.
Yakko77 on July 23, 2007 at 9:42 PM
Exactly, I have been screaming for years that we need to hit them so hard that the world sits down in shock.
Tim Burton on July 23, 2007 at 9:50 PM
The only way to truly defeat an enemy, not just knock him down for a decade or two then rise again, is to devastate their nation, occupy their land, and impose your culture on them. Europe had a war almost every generation, either England and Prussia against France, or France and England against Germany, with the Russians getting involved every so often. Whoever won never followed up on their victory, so the defeated rose again. After WWII, we occupied and imposed a political system on Germany and Japan that resulted in their being our allied to this day, and that doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon.
The problem with Islamics, though, is that so long as they believe in Mohammed, they have no choice but to fight the Kufaar. Any power hungry Caliph wannabe can rile the masses easily, and no one can deny that he’s doing what the “Prophet” (piss be upon him) would do. To be a good Muslim is to be a bad human being.
There is some hope for Iran, Syria, and Lebanon. They have non-Islamic traditions and culture to be revived. (Zoroastrianism, Christianity, dozens of smaller religions hiding in the mountains.) Failing that, there’s always Greater Kurdistan.
As for Arabia, the heart of the beast, I think, after enough Westerners have been slaughtered, enough cities burned or poisoned, we’ll have no choice but to implement the Coulter Doctrine.
ticticboom on July 23, 2007 at 11:04 PM
This generation has no idea what war really is. Total war. Like it was waged in WW2. Desert Storm was too quick, too clean, too painless, too perfect, the exception to the rule. War requires an absolute commitment to annihilate the enemy, not just on the part of the military, but also on the part of the populace of the nation that will win.
infidel4life on July 23, 2007 at 11:19 PM
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