CNN poll: Bloomberg hurts Republicans ever so slightly more than Democrats
posted at 7:25 pm on June 25, 2007 by Allahpundit
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First the data then the caveats.
In the new poll’s three-way matchups among registered voters, Democratic frontrunner Sen. Hillary Clinton would hold a slight edge in an all-New York race with 41 percent, compared to Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani’s 38 percent and Bloomberg’s 17.
In a two-way matchup, Clinton and Giuliani are effectively tied, 49-48 percent, with a sampling error of 3.5 percentage points.
In a race pitting Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, against Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, and Bloomberg, Obama drew 40 percent; McCain, 34 percent; and Bloomberg, 21. Without the New York mayor, Obama would edge McCain 48-44 percent, according to the poll.
In each case he takes 10 points from the Republican and eight from the Democrat … which is within the margin of error of three points. Plus, it stands to reason that Bloomy would lure voters from Rudy and McCain given that they’re all centrists. Let’s see how he does against Fred in four months or so, after the latter’s begun campaigning in earnest and established himself as the “traditional conservative” candidate. I said last month that a Hillary/Fred/Bloomy free-for-all would be a good deal for the GOP. I’m sticking with it for the moment.
Meanwhile, here’s rumor-quashing video today from South Carolina of the grim reaper of amnesty, his grinning flunky in tow.
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Somehow I just have a hard time believing that the guy who wants to give financial incentives to people for graduating high school and going to the dentist is going to draw Republican votes.
Citizen Duck on June 25, 2007 at 7:30 PM
Just what the contry needs another elitist schmuck as if Bush isn’t bad enough.
warpmine on June 25, 2007 at 7:31 PM
Yes, but we’re forgetting the Nader factor.
amerpundit on June 25, 2007 at 7:34 PM
Not a lot’s crossed McCain’s mind.
amerpundit on June 25, 2007 at 7:35 PM
Wouldn’t Bloomy hurt Fred! more? Eg. Moderates more likely to vote independent because GOP picks a conservative?
JamesP on June 25, 2007 at 7:39 PM
How about Ron Paul? j/k.
I agree with AP. I really don’t think if there’s a conservative in the race, that Bloomie’s going to affect him at all. Consider the source of the poll too. Why would they even include McCain? Did I miss something today?
PowWow on June 25, 2007 at 7:39 PM
Hey…first comment. Eureka!
Mike D. on June 25, 2007 at 7:40 PM
Can anyone tell me one quality of Bloomie that appeals to a Republican? The gut is a big time socialist Democrat.
tarpon on June 25, 2007 at 7:47 PM
booooooo to an all New York race
libertytexan on June 25, 2007 at 7:51 PM
Exactly! How is a nanny-state socialist going to draw votes from a conservative Republican?
I think something is wrong with this poll.
jdawg on June 25, 2007 at 7:51 PM
jdawg is correct. Poll was skewed and where was it taken from ? What state?
warpmine on June 25, 2007 at 8:06 PM
Thar stands two complete wackos. They give no thought to the well-being of the people. And even less to the well-being of the party. The only saving grace… nope, sorry, none. There is no saving grace.
Griz on June 25, 2007 at 8:09 PM
It’s not surprising that they’d put him up against the two RINO turds that would actually be hurt by a Bloomberg candidacy. I’d like to see him up against Thompson, once the average voter actually knows his name.
Zolf on June 25, 2007 at 8:19 PM
No way. Anyone but Hilary is strong, oh so strong. The middle will bite the bullet in a Hilary-Bloomberg-Thompson race, which is the most likely scenario. Bloomberg takes votes from Hilary in New York but he does nothing in the South.
What Perot had that Bloomberg doesn’t is a spine and a message. Bloomberg is the political equivalent of gum on hot asphalt.He’ll draw littel enthusiasm and less votes.
Theworldisnotenough on June 25, 2007 at 8:32 PM
I think McCain is the one smoking the whacky weed if he thinks he has a snowball’s chance in hell to be elected POTUS!
brtex on June 25, 2007 at 8:34 PM
Consider the source, as usual. Bloomberg will do nothing to harm a Republican candidate. As I commented on the excellent Hillary Needs A Vacation website, “Mayor Bloomingidiot is deluded if he thinks he has any chance of getting any type of support outside of a fringe anti-gun lunatic brigade, and they’re leftists anyway. No loss of R votes there.”
This “poll” is just another attempt to portray someone as a danger to the Republican candidate. When there isn’t one. Typical Enemy Press….
ScottG on June 25, 2007 at 8:38 PM
Semi - on topic question: Regarding the Presidential race, why do we conservatives whine and wail for a “real conservative,” but bicker over whether it should be McCain, Rudy, Mitt, or Fred? Why aren’t candidates like Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo getting any attention?
Granted, name recognition and electability is a factor, but seriously — Hunter would make a great VP to Fred!
HYTEAndy on June 25, 2007 at 8:47 PM
Doesn’t depend on how many people perceive Bloomberg to be a centrist? Why would he peel off the Republicans? He’s a New York Liberal and proved that by his governing.
But Rudy has admistered a government - a difficult and contentious one - the apogee of his administration was a terror attack that had been meant to be a catastrophe, but solid leadership and management kept order, and the city from crumbing into chaos. Ray Nagin had a week to observe his approaching catastrophe AND had in hand an Emergency guidebook on exactly what to do for that specific disaster, but his city went to hell in a hand-basket thanks to his abysmal lack of ability and leadership.
Meanwhile, McCain has trouble managing his own ego.
New York under Bloomberg has not exactly been impressive, but rather scary with his penchant for micromanging people’s personal lives, and crime goes up. Guiliani did not have any need to shut Virginia down to correct New York City’s problems, unlike Bloomberg.
It’s a construct of the MSM to stick the party-hopping Bloomberg with the GOP, rather than with his political soul-mates in the Democrat Party.
naliaka on June 25, 2007 at 8:52 PM
Fred and Hunter. I like it.
Mojave Mark on June 25, 2007 at 9:25 PM
Is this Bloomberg’s powerplay to get something after being Mayor of NYC?
Right now I am watching Rudy and Fred very closely. If we have another change or two on the Supreme Court in the next year, the need for a staunch socially conservative may not be. More and more people get it about the Muslim extremists and the Amnesty problem.
The declining polls about Iraq may be more of let’s just do the job and quit playing around than “peacenik” driven.
Kermit on June 25, 2007 at 9:51 PM
Poll: Bloomberg could have Perot-like effect
Title of the link - this is assuming that the righties and centrists, including a bunch of libertarians and other independents, have forgotten what 1992 brung them. If that’s the case then they deserve CiC Hillary.
Entelechy on June 25, 2007 at 10:08 PM
Thompson is going to sink the GOP better than Bloomberg could ever manage to. Bloomberg is going to be a magnet for moderate/lib Republicans tired of the Iraq adventure and religious overreach (aka Terri Schiavo).
If Guiliani or McCain get the nod, less moderates will leave, but it won’t matter, because Democrats are tired of Republican governing and no one is going to repeat another Nader mistake. Democrats and Dem-leaning independents are simply going to vote Dem. Conservatives making ridiculous claims that “liberals will vote for Bloomberg because he’s just like them” are simply being childish and using the occasion to attack Bloomberg. Simply because you think he’s a liberal doesn’t mean we do, and it doesn’t mean we like him. There isn’t one Dem pundit/blogger who is excited about a possible Bloomberg ticket (in a way other than “This is going to sink the GOP, great”).
If Thompson is the nominee most people will be disgusted by it. He’s done nothing, said nothing and achieved nothing that qualifies him anymore than any of the other Republican nominees. He’ll get the nod for one reason and one reason alone: white, Southern, male, deep voice. That’s it. And that’s a pretty pathetic reason to nominate someone. All of the cries of Good Ol Boy politics is going to drain away your moderates, and we’re going to crush the GOP in the next election. Especially since Thompson is already promising to free Scooter Libby despite higher than 70% opposition from the public. Go for it. See what happens.
If Thompson is the nominee? 55% Dem, 30% Thompson, 15% Bloomberg.
If you’re lucky.
Fragility on June 25, 2007 at 10:12 PM
McCain comes down to one word: Immigration. He is the first to feel the wrath. How does it feel John, knowing Corporations can’t vote?
pat on June 25, 2007 at 10:55 PM
When McCain drops out of the race I predict that the eggsuckers in the media will all hail him as a man of courage and principle who did the right thing on immigration all the while knowing it could damage his presidential chances. Then I will of course puke my guts out.
Frank Nitti on June 25, 2007 at 11:21 PM
Count me as one liberal absolutely dying for another Kentucky-fried Republican ticket. We’ll tear it to shreds. Fred Thompson is an empty suit being promoted for one simple reason: he is a white, southern male with a deep voice. Bloomberg will drain away all of the mod/lib Republicans turned off by the war/religious right and Thompson’s hardline conservatism. Democrats are unified and optimistic about their choices in this election, unlike Republicans, and I’ve never met/heard/seen a Dem of any stripe tell me they even liked Bloomberg or gave a damn about him, much less were, for some reason, going to vote for him over Clinton. And if Clinton doesn’t win the nod, all the better.
Either way you cut it, we’ll win. Rasmussen has Hillary beating “Rudy McRomney”, and Clinton/Edwards/Obama slaughtering Thompson.
This should be a fun election.
Fragility on June 26, 2007 at 12:47 AM
But she will, and that’s your 190 lbs albatross.
Entelechy on June 26, 2007 at 1:01 AM
Bloomberg is a life long Democrat who changed party so he could run for mayor. That 45% that cannot stand Hillary would probably vote for any other democrat masked as an independant. the 61 Million that voted for Bush in 04 will not vote Democratic under any circumstance. The issues have not changed. Thompson or Romney will easily defeat any democratic nominee. Hillary has gone too far to the left and the rest have all catered to Kos kids and DU to ever move back to center to run a national campaign. Video tape lasts a long long time. The Republicans have plenty of money to show who the Democrats really are.
Zelsdorf Ragshaft on June 26, 2007 at 1:31 AM
He may be as liberal as they come, but Mike has done a great job in New York. Plus, if it would hurt Hillary’s chances, I’d vote for him.
skwired on June 26, 2007 at 9:29 AM
I am sure that Bloomberg’s entrance in this race is simply to screw over Giulliani, I think Bloomberg resents Giulliani’s untouchable status and I do feel there is jealousy on Bloomberg’s part over the way Rudy is held up like a hero. I think he feels that he did all the heavy lifting after 9/11 by fixing the cities finances (with an enormous raise in property taxes, and a doubling of all parking fines) and Rudy just did all the public appearences and was sainted for his heroism. Bloomberg is a cold, vindictive man and was a lifelong liberal and I woudln’t put it past him to get into the race just to deprive Giulliani of more glory….. he is that petty.
Joey1974 on June 26, 2007 at 1:29 PM