Amnesty tomorrow: Five to seven votes needed, 12 still undecided; Update: Webb to vote no? Update: Burr to vote yes; Update: Boxer a likely no; Update: Five votes short, says Numbers USA; Update: Bond, Cochran, Bingaman, Nelson all yes? Update: Boxer’s a yes too

posted at 2:14 pm on June 25, 2007 by Allahpundit

We’re shooting at a moving target here but best estimates are that opponents are within six votes or so of killing this monster in its crib when the first cloture vote comes to the floor tomorrow. John Hawkins’s Senate source said last week that the first vote is the time to get it done, otherwise it’ll pick up momentum and force a do-or-die second cloture a few days later that will determine the bill’s fate. Here’s the list of undecideds, again per the Corner:

Bond (R-Mo.), Bingaman (D-N.M.), Burr (R-N.C.), Boxer (D-Calif.), Cochran (R-Miss.), Conrad (D-N.D.), Ensign (R-Nev.), Levin (D-Mich.), Gregg (R-N.H.), Nelson (D-Neb.), Hatch (R-Utah), Webb (D-Va.)

George Voinovich might be in play, too. One of our commenters claims to have called Ben Nelson’s office and been told that he’ll vote yes on cloture but no on the final up-or-down vote itself. That’s a transparent sham designed to give him political cover so that he can plausibly claim later that he voted “against” the bill. The critical vote is cloture, since it requires 60 to proceed; the final vote requires a simple majority, which the amnesty faction probably already has. They don’t need his vote for that but they do need it for cloture, and he’s planning on giving it to them. Here are the Senate phone numbers; even if, like me, you’re too apathetic normally to practice direct democracy, this is a special occasion. If you call Nelson’s office, you might care to mention this result from today’s Rasmussen survey, which, let’s hope to god, will prove to be the final “killer poll” needed to euthanize this sucker:

Among the public, there is a bi-partisan lack of enthusiasm for the Senate bill. It is supported by 22% of Republicans, 23% of Democrats, and 22% of those not affiliated with either major party. It is opposed by 52% of Republicans, 50% of Democrats, and 48% of unaffiliateds.

The closer we get to 41 “no” votes, the easier it may be to shame the other wafflers into joining us. The House GOP is threatening to hit Bush where he lives over this. Start calling.

Update: One down, four to six to go.

Update: Burr’s office is lying to callers.

Update: Damn it.

Update: Boxer says nay, hopefully.

Update: Damn — Noam Askew says Webb is still on the fence.

Update: Martin from MVRWC says he called Kit Bond’s office and was told Bond will vote yes on cloture if his amendment removing the amnesty provision from the bill is accepted. I think that means the second cloture vote, not the first one tomorrow. Presumably Bond’s voting yes on that, then.

Update: I’ve got a bad feeling about this.

Our date with destiny is Tuesday morning (tomorrow) at 11:30.

That is the schedule for dealing with two unrelated bills, including the cloture vote to allow the S. 1639 Kennedy/Bush Comprehensive Amnesty Bill back on the Senate floor.

Your NumbersUSA team of lobbyists — and our allied organizations and Senate staffers — feel that at this time we are 5 votes short of killing this monstrosity of a bill in the first round.

But those last five are proving to be extremely difficult votes to get. Constituency pressure is proving to be about the only thing that works — and it has worked remarkably well in places like Georgia, Texas and even beginning to work in Michigan.

Update: A Senate “insider” who spoke to Rich Lowry says he’s suddenly feeling pessimistic.

Update: Got an e-mail from a reporter friend who says Bond, Cochran, Bingaman, and of course Ben Nelson are all voting for cloture.

It’s going to pass.

Update: Boxer’s voting for cloture too, says Noam Askew.

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Well, I contacted Bingaman’s office today yesterday after reading this thread the first time… Actually I was surprised he was still considering it. While not a complete moonbat liberal (for being a Dem. Senator)he does tend to vote the party line.

Our normally conservative Senator has a definite psychological problem when it comes to immigration laws, and was pro-amnesty from the start. (It is pretty hard to put him on the enemy list after 30+ years of voting for him and financial support, but he will never get a dime or a vote from me again, because of this.)

For months I have been pretty sure that this horrible piece of legislation would pass the Senate … An occasional moment of faint hope, but generally I expected disappointment and disaster.

Some hope remains for the House, but I’d give 2-1 odds that I will again be disappointed there too.

Imagine, the guy I worked as a full-time volunteer for (Senor Jorge Boosh) for three months to help get re-elected in 2004, and a Senator I have known, liked and supported with many campaign donations since I was a youth… would help to destroy the Republican party by favoring illegal alien invaders over their Constitutional and sworn duties and the people that got them where they are.

LegendHasIt on June 26, 2007 at 5:16 AM

So I guess it’s incredibly naieve of me to think one person matters, right? But I swear by all that’s holy that I will work ‘from can til cain’t’ to remove Trent Lott from public office.

And Thad Cochran, this message is for you: Your vote got bought. This I know in my soul. A plague be upon you!

grits on June 26, 2007 at 5:43 AM

I see that Coburn returned to the Senate early (after surgery) to cast his “NO” vote today.

Buzzy on June 26, 2007 at 8:05 AM

Okay, so it looks like it’ll pass the Senate. Surely (and I’m not calling you Shirley) the House will derail this thing or at least fix it.

Or would that be putting lipstick on a pig? (No offense to Muslims intended, but if you are… eh… deal with it)

Nineball on June 26, 2007 at 8:13 AM

If this bad piece of proposed legislation dies, it is important to remember that it did not die solely through common sense and wisdom coming out of Washington. The politicians would have passed this monster and then defended it! We, the people, have made the difference here by making it clear to that the “grand compromise” was nothing but a big sellout to the special interests.

It is no coincidence that so many of those politicians seeking reelection in 2008 have suddenly decided to oppose this bill. The calls and e-mails that have assaulted them for the past few weeks tells them all they need to know.

highhopes on June 26, 2007 at 8:20 AM

So what do we as the majority have to do to be heard?? Do we need to take to the streets?? Do we need a national sick out?? Help I need some direction here. I want to do something to be heard!! Letters and emails etc are not doing the trick here!! What can we do??? Kicking the bums out at election is too late… I want something done now… God please help us…

vulcannomad on June 26, 2007 at 1:04 PM

I’ve written to both my senators and my congress-critter. The Senate phone lines are jammed, but I did get through to the congress-critter. I have sent the following e-mails to my senators. This might be a way to get their attention… a “Vote Against All Incumbents” campaign…

Dear Sen. Hutchison:

I have tried to phone you at numerous times today, but all your phone lines, both in Washington and in Texas are busy. I think I know the reason, and I hope you do too.

In any event, since no one in our “representative” legislature seems to be listening to the people that they allegedly represent, a group of friends and I have come up with a sure-fire way to guarantee that a bill like the “Immigration Reform Bill” will never happen again. Basically, the idea is quite simple. If this bill is voted out of the senate, then at such time as you run for re-election, we will NOT vote for you, either in the primary or the general election. It doesn’t matter what you did or how you voted. The watchword will be “vote against all incumbents”. Perhaps after “flushing” the Senate and the House of Representatives two or three times, politicians will get the message that re-election is neither a divine right nor a certainty.

I hope that you mention this to your fellow senators, and this message gets their attention.


Jonas Parker on June 27, 2007 at 1:41 PM