Report: Reid’s got 61 votes for cloture on shamnesty; Update: Or does he?
posted at 3:28 pm on June 20, 2007 by Allahpundit
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And cloture, of course, is the “real” vote here, requiring 60 to end debate as opposed to the 51 needed to pass this travesty. How’d he do it? If you believe Senate staffers, first he decided he was going to let only 24 amendments come to the floor and then he “sold” 16 of those slots to the bill’s critics in exchange for their pledge to vote for cloture when the time came. He already had 45 votes banked; according to the AP, the 16 new amendments “come from senators who helped derail the legislation earlier this month,” which strongly suggests that all of them voted against cloture the first time. Specifically named are Kit Bond, Barbara Boxer, John Ensign, Jim Webb, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Max Baucus, Jon Tester, Claire McCaskill, Chuck Grassley, John Thune, Norm Coleman, and Bernie Sanders. All 12 voted no on June 7th. Robert Menendez, who voted yes, is also named in the AP piece, but his may be one of the other eight amendments they’re considering, likely because he nearly walked away from the bill two weeks ago because it wasn’t lenient enough and Reid wants to keep him on board.
How grand might this betrayal be? Per the AP, this grand:
One senior aide close to the discussions predicted that as many as 24 Republicans would back moving ahead with the bill under the scenario envisioned - compared with just seven GOP senators who did so previously.
Chambliss and Isakson said today they won’t vote for cloture so it may be more like 22 Republicans. But so what? 60’s the magic number, however they get it. Kaus refuses to go quietly, trumpeting the fact that even the Democrats’ polls can’t do better than 47-47 for this steaming piece of shinola. This isn’t a key issue for the left, though. Granted, as Kaus notes, immigration did rank above health care on the sample’s wish list, but it was only one point higher and that’s after a month of an actual bill being in play in the Senate and all the attendant media coverage that comes with it. Except in the purplest of Blue Dog districts, does any Democratic incumbent have much to fear by way of a primary challenge if they vote for amnesty? Particularly if they get right on Iraq and health care as that emerges as a major issue (which, thanks to Michael Moore, it’s already started to do)?
Exit question: Is the battle lost, my friends? Has the time come to call in Tancelot?
Update: Noam Askew’s added an update to his post (linked above) to say that sources are telling him that not all of the 16 have pledged to vote for cloture. That’s good news, but of course much depends on who and how many. Names and numbers, please!
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They’re pulling it out all stops, and boy has it soured me on the GOP in the Senate. I’m glad the fight has been this difficult in the Senate, but looks like hopes are on the House.
Spirit of 1776 on June 20, 2007 at 3:31 PM
um, doesn’t it have to go to the house? And hasn’t the house pretty much said, “No way. No how.” Especially after passing their own immigration bill, as symblic as it was.
What am I missing?
Editor on June 20, 2007 at 3:34 PM
Yes, of course it has to go to the House. Much better to kill it ASAP, though, since we don’t know what’s going to happen there, no?
Allahpundit on June 20, 2007 at 3:36 PM
Exit question #2:
Constitutionaly any bill appropriating money either through taxes, or fees, must start in the House of Representatives. This bill as written puts FEES in place for the Z1 Visa and such.
Is this bill NOT unconstitutional?
Exit queston #3: As this bill does NOT make them pay back taxes, cannot we, the taxpayer, sue under equal protection? As we HAVE to pay back taxes?
Romeo13 on June 20, 2007 at 3:36 PM
What traitors!
DwnSouthJukin on June 20, 2007 at 3:38 PM
Exactly Allah, we shouldn’t take that chance if we can avoid it. God knows what the House is really thinking.
Bad Candy on June 20, 2007 at 3:38 PM
or what might come out of conference.
Spirit of 1776 on June 20, 2007 at 3:41 PM
It ain’t over till the illegal aliens sing.
I don’t trust the house either. I think the passage of the Tanc bill, just as AP’s exit question suggests, that we CAN give up on the senate because of this recent house bill that passed. I ask myself, WHY, after being defeated many times, did the dems automatically vote yes on this bill? To lull us to sleep. Once this POS bill gets to the house, those dems will change their minds. If I remember right, there is no filibuster in the house?
I’m calling my POS Craig every single day now.
Does anyone know when this comes up for a cloture vote, or where we are on the 22 amendments?
csdeven on June 20, 2007 at 3:43 PM
Yes - the sooner the better, of course. The problem is the house has sent 2 very strong public messages to the Senate and the Senate seems to be trucking along. Doesn’t seem to have derailed anything.
So, is the House just teasing us?
Editor on June 20, 2007 at 3:43 PM
Yeah, they could rectify the two bills, and that would be bad news too.
Bad Candy on June 20, 2007 at 3:44 PM
that is the other obvious scenario and I’d definitely accept it as viable.
Editor on June 20, 2007 at 3:46 PM
Harry Reid, enemy of the American people
Hening on June 20, 2007 at 3:47 PM
Total taxation manipulation against the clear desires of the American people.
This must not stand.
bbz123 on June 20, 2007 at 3:47 PM
Don’t count on the House. There’s speculation that the House has been posturing on tougher enforcement first as a smokescreen for those in the Senate who hope to vote AYE thinking the House will scrap the bill. It seems a lot will depend on what comes out of Conference. That will give the YES voters another chance to get right with their constituents if amended provisions are stripped in Committee. I’m pessimistic and I think the only thing that’s going to get their attention is to vote some of them out come this Fall. I’m also pessimistic that won’t happen either.
Laddy on June 20, 2007 at 3:51 PM
Yeah, I agree. Totally within the realm of possibility.
AP, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, you have been an absolute superstar covering this whole illegal immigration issue. It’s much appreciated - keep it up! I, for one, really appreciate it.
Spirit of 1776 on June 20, 2007 at 3:51 PM
Florida. Nelson could lose. Immigration is a hot-button issue for Floridians, and most aren’t taking Nelson’s side here.
amerpundit on June 20, 2007 at 3:53 PM
Well, the silver lining will be that we’ll have everybody on the record and the American people will be POd on a level seldom seen. Sometimes it takes getting POd to prod people into action…
TheBigOldDog on June 20, 2007 at 3:53 PM
I don’t think the House will pass it in its current form. Those representatives are much closer to their constituency than senators and therefore have much more to lose.
It doesn’t surprise me one bit that Hutchison voted for cloture. She’s not up for re-election in 2008 and I’m sure she’s hoping that Texans will forget about her vote for amnesty. Cornyn, on the other hand, has a lot more to lose - mainly his senate seat if he goes along with this. I suspect he voted “no” on cloture and will vote “no” on the bill - as well he should.
pullingmyhairout on June 20, 2007 at 3:56 PM
Well, if we want to get really cynical (and I’m inclined to) I’d say there is a good number of R’s who are intentionally falling on the sword for a D supermajority. That is infact so cynical of a view point that it is conspiratorial… and I’m not discounting it.
Editor on June 20, 2007 at 3:57 PM
ok, I’ll bite. Why in the world would they do that?
TheBigOldDog on June 20, 2007 at 4:03 PM
This stuff in D.C. has me worried. And down here in Texas, the illegals are chanting, “Remember the Alamo!”. Not good…
ricer1 on June 20, 2007 at 4:06 PM
Help us, Obi-Tanc, you’re our only hope!
JayHaw Phrenzie on June 20, 2007 at 4:09 PM
The one good of all of this is that the light is shining on those GOP traitors, the GOP wimps.
right2bright on June 20, 2007 at 4:10 PM
Oh, right. Like I’d have an effing clue why. Tell me why it seems to be very clear W set the stage for a November blowout? Amnesty.
Why would they pass this in the first place? Purely lobby money? I’m certainly not discounting that, either. The simplest answer is to follow the money - duh. I’m not saying they are falling on the sword. Just that this thing is so effed up there are any number of scenarios. Are they really this dense and out of touch? Yeah, probably, but enough to risk political suicide? National suicide?
Editor on June 20, 2007 at 4:13 PM
Obi-Wan Tancobi?
Bad Candy on June 20, 2007 at 4:15 PM
This shamnesty ‘compromise’ makes me nervous but I still believe that nothing that grand will be signed before the next presidential election. However, we can’t rest on our laurels, at any point. NO one, but no one in Washington can be trusted any more.
Entelechy on June 20, 2007 at 4:17 PM
This shamnesty ‘compromise’ makes me nervous but I still believe that nothing that grand will be signed before the next presidential election. However, we can’t rest on our laurels, at any point. NO one, but no one in Washington can be trusted any more.
Entelechy on June 20, 2007 at 4:17 PM
Sorry about the double - just don’t ask me to repeat that :(
Entelechy on June 20, 2007 at 4:19 PM
Suggestion: letters to the editor of every small, local newspaper in America, gang. They will print just about anything that comes from a local resident. Quote Splash Kennedy from the 1965 and 1986 amnesties, wherein we are informed that “this is the last time we’ll evah have to deal with the issue”.
My own experience with lib friends has been that they don’t view this much different than we do.
Jaibones on June 20, 2007 at 4:21 PM
Just called Sen Nelson (D-FL) and said this goes beyond party lines. This is piling on more bad legislation on top of neglected legislation.
They told me that Nelson has NOT made his decision yet and he wants to hear from his constituants on this issue.
stenwin77 on June 20, 2007 at 4:25 PM
Only rational I can see for this whole debacle…
Big business, who contols the Congress through money, wants their cheap workers legalized NOW because they know the American people are fed up, and my very well elect a Law and Order President (pun intended) who will actualy enforce the existing laws… like the ones ALREADY on the books about fines for employers who hire illegals.
This is not just about Amnesty for illegals, its about amnesty for business owners who have broken the law for many years.
Romeo13 on June 20, 2007 at 4:37 PM
Congress passed “Campaign Finance Reform” and Bush signed it because everyone opposed thought that the Supreme Court would throw it out and that they were making a “look good” vote. The same situation is developing here. Don’t trust either the Senate or the House to kill it and keep the pressure on anyone who’s vote is in doubt.
duff65 on June 20, 2007 at 4:37 PM
Did you remind then that a vote for cloture will be interpreted as a vote for passage?
db on June 20, 2007 at 4:38 PM
As with anything, this is about money, and I want to know whose corporate funds are pulling the strings of these losers. If we are talking big bucks from Marriott, Tyson’s etc that is deiving this idiocy, go to ths source and let the American people know which companies are responsible, and just boycott the living hell out of all of them, down to the last contractor.
bbz123 on June 20, 2007 at 5:04 PM
Email addresses of Senate staffers:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1850941/posts
PRCalDude on June 20, 2007 at 5:12 PM
Wow! This is one of those epic battles between Big Biz who line the pockets of our politicians, and The People who have voting power.
Like most conservatives, I generally side with biz interests but with this issue… may Democracy defeat the Kleptocracy!
CliffHanger on June 20, 2007 at 5:22 PM
I keep fighting and calling.
May God bless our efforts.
Tim Burton on June 20, 2007 at 5:25 PM
In fact, I’m a bit surprised that the pro-amnesty side hasn’t done much about communicating the adverse economic consequences that would result from strict immigration enforcement - worker shortages, higher prices, inflation, etc.
CliffHanger on June 20, 2007 at 5:28 PM
I’m stunned that Hutchison is on the might-have-been-bought list! Rumor is that she might run for Texas governor at some point. No way Texans would support her if she sells out on this.
aero on June 20, 2007 at 5:29 PM
Your government knows what’s best for you.
Next time vote correctly, Vote Hillary.
Kini on June 20, 2007 at 5:32 PM
Since Reid is a con-genital-less liar, I’m hoping he is running (his mouth) true to form.
Amnesty NOT.
profitsbeard on June 20, 2007 at 5:37 PM
Well, I’ve done my duty once again, letting Sen. Alexander know how I’ll vote in his reelection if he votes for cloture or passage of the bill.
We’ve made our voice known on this. I believe they think we’re all as short-sighted as the Democrats are on the GWOT and will forget this come election time. I won’t. And I think that the majority of conservatives are reaching their boiling point on this issue. Hopefully, we will coalesce into the conservative party as we were before. If not, I know not what.
Here’s hoping….
Tennman on June 20, 2007 at 5:43 PM
I don’t understand why big business would want this. Once their illegal workers are legal they will demand more pay … yadda yadda yadda … inflation will increase which is bad for business.
-Fat Old Guy
Fogpig on June 20, 2007 at 5:46 PM
SouthernGent on June 20, 2007 at 6:44 PM
Which way is the Whip cracking?
Jones Zemkophill on June 20, 2007 at 6:54 PM
Just emailed McCaskill, who in fairness has been solid in opposing the bill. I hope she wasn’t ‘bought’ with an amendment. I mentioned that!
Martin on June 20, 2007 at 7:02 PM
Ahhh… but you see there will still be plenty of illegals to go around…
Many won’t put in for the Z… and Obama and such are already trying to get the national ID card out of the bill…
CBO says it will only cut illegal Imm by about 25%….
Win/Win for business…
Hmmm… and just hit me… how can we put a date on somthing for amnesty under the equal protection clause?
Romeo13 on June 20, 2007 at 7:52 PM
It’s not just conservatives who are PO’d about this whole travesty. I work with a bunch of folks I’d classify “Independants” like I am (if remarks of F’ing Democrats and F’ing Republicans is any clue). Well, nobody I’ve talked to about this likes it one bit. Except for snarky humor (”you just hate brown people, don’t ya?”), most people I know are seriously upset about this. Keep up the pressure folks.
Joementum is going to be getting my rather rude opinion about his vote FOR cloture, and I’m someone who wholeheartedly supported his shift to Independant. I like the guy. He helped save thousands upon thousands of jobs in SE CT. He knows that sometimes, a punch in the snot locker is in order (Afghanistan/Iraq). However, his apparent support of this bill irritates me to no end.
Conservatives are not alone in their fight against this detestable partial-birth abortion of the American Way.
American_Jihadist on June 20, 2007 at 8:46 PM
One of the biggest Shamnesty frauds is Lamar Alexander of TN. He has hypocritically stated that he will vote against the bill but FOR cloture.
pjcomix on June 21, 2007 at 8:10 AM