Video: “We never even considered an insurgency,” says Keane

posted at 6:06 pm on June 18, 2007 by Allahpundit

I’m lifting this from Danger Room so I’ll send you over there for background. A tough watch, needless to say. Keane, incidentally, co-authored the plan with Fred Kagan last year that later became the blueprint for the surge. Kagan told Time today that he sees some progress, especially among the Sunnis and their attitudes towards Al Qaeda, but that Petraeus will need until the end of the year at least to see real progress. Watch the video of Mitch McConnell from this morning if you haven’t already; he doesn’t sound warm to the idea. It might not matter: the “second surge,” engineered by overlapping departing and arriving troops, could ensure elevated troop levels through New Year’s.


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I hope things get better over there, I don’t really know what else there is to say.

Bad Candy on June 18, 2007 at 6:08 PM

Didn’t know anything about Islam either, I bet.

Or the Battle of Lepanto, or Tours, of the Gates of Vienna, or al-Andaluz, or Charles Martel.

The derelect leading the dutiful.

profitsbeard on June 18, 2007 at 6:09 PM

Bad Candy on June 18, 2007 at 6:08 PM

Yeah.

Spirit of 1776 on June 18, 2007 at 6:11 PM

How can we possibly expect to make thigs better in Iraq or Afhansistan. Our gov’t does not even understand our enemy.
Why did we replace two rogue regimes with two theocratic democracies that are just as bad? The elected gov’t in Iraq is just like the elcted gov’t on the Isralei occupied terotories (Hamas). Just becuase you freely elect terrorists, rogues, scoundrels, and religious zealots, doesn’t suddenly make them good guys.

paulsur on June 18, 2007 at 6:12 PM

Didn’t know anything about Islam either, I bet.

profitsbeard

I was thinking the same thing too. Islam has been the missing link in all of this. It’s incredible to believe that no one knew what kind of people we would be dealing with. What were the CIA agents doing?

I’m torn between wanting out troops out, because they did their mission and the Iraqi government isn’t stepping up to the plate. When you have thousands marching against the US, almost on a weekly basis, something ain’t right. I know we can’t leave, but I wish our troops were pushed back to the borders and let them kill each other.

moonsbreath on June 18, 2007 at 6:17 PM

Perhaps what is needed most is for our forces to be allowed to ‘take the gloves off’ and get busy subduing the ‘insurgents.’

At the same time maybe we should implement some plan to cut of any contact by said insurgents with Iran (and vise versa)- even if that means engaging (re: bombing) Iran militarily.

The Iraqis need strong leadership. Perhaps we have to fill that role for a time.

sigh

BobH on June 18, 2007 at 6:22 PM

When the Iraqi prepation was about to begin in March of 2003. The first thoughts I had were about Iran’s reaction and follow up reaction to the toppling of Saddam. I believed that If I were Iran I would take advantage of the situation and send in as many “agents” as possible to turn things in their favor after the Power vacuum was accomplished. I say power vacuum because I heard of no plans to establish an authority according to American western philosophy. So I assumed there was going to be a power vacuum.

Well, These things are inevitable as long as we keep deceiving ourselves of who is really pulling the strings in the MSM and who is about to pull the carpet from out below our feet.

Egfrow on June 18, 2007 at 6:24 PM

The 800 pound Gorilla dressed as a Panda. In our wallets and our purses. Taking away our productive capacity except for our military technology which they are actively copying in secret and selling to our enemies via sympathetic proxies.

Iran’s and North Korea’s missile programs and nuke programs are integrated. I wonder who is handling that?

Egfrow on June 18, 2007 at 6:31 PM

The Immigration bill and new H1B quotas are perceived to be needed because or production capacity and tech sectors are dying. We no longer produce or manufacture anything of consequence so students have no need to learn those skills, Schools can’t find students to fill the classes so they no longer need to teach it, those who do want to learn have to use the internet, books, or goto an overseas school. All we do now is produce raw materials so that others can make the products we consume but not knowing how to any longer make them at all.

Since Americans have a high cost of living and living standards compared to other nations who produce our products, it’s better for a company to hire these foreign workers who already have those skills rather than invest in creating or finding them domestically.
What we do need is more cheap un-skilled labor. The MSM takes pot shots at our culture and those willing to attempt to stand up for what’s left of our nation.

The MSM is busy glorify ineptitude and attacking ability. They tell us nothing is worth defending or fighting for and that we must never resort to violence even while we are being beaten and sodomized and looted. The MSM says we must thank them and blame ourselves for being better and doing good.

Welcome to the New World Order.

Egfrow on June 18, 2007 at 6:44 PM

The 800 pound Gorilla dressed as a Panda. In our wallets and our purses. Taking away our productive capacity except for our military technology which they are actively copying in secret and selling to our enemies via sympathetic proxies.

Yeah, I put up a whole series of posts on the futility of fighting terrorists and insurgents in Iraq without also addressing Syria and Iran, who are, in turn, backed by Russia and China. Follow the money, the weapons, and the technology, and you always get back to Russia and China. If you’re interested, I have a category called “Cold War II” at my site that goes into the burgeoning relationship between Russia and China, their pan-Asian aggregation of power, and the influence on Iran and Iraq.

Best place to start might be here, where I show how the arms sales from Russia and China to Iran have accelerated since 9/11.

geoff on June 18, 2007 at 6:57 PM

moonsbreath-

They should move the Coalition forces out of the middle of the madness, have them control the oil fields, and guard the Kurdish region.

Then shoot at the “insurgents”, al-Qaeda in Iraq, foreign fighters, Iranian agents, et al, from the air, whenever they raise trouble using predator drones, cruise missiles, B-52′s, etc.

The Iraqis have had more than too much time to get their own shi’ite together and defend themselves.

They can learn the first lesson of a democracy: fight for what your have -or succumb to those who will fight.

profitsbeard on June 18, 2007 at 7:03 PM

When all else fails look at a map. If we maintain bases there, we would be an absolute thorn in the side of Islamobadistan crazies who want to take over the world. This real estate is too important. Besides which, Babylon is where the end of the world takes place and who’d want to miss that.

Mojave Mark on June 18, 2007 at 7:08 PM

How could anybody “never even consider the possibility of an insurgency” in the freekin’ Middle-East? I am really having a hard time believing that one.

B Moe on June 18, 2007 at 7:22 PM

Bad Candy on June 18, 2007 at 6:08 PM

Yeah.

Spirit of 1776 on June 18, 2007 at 6:11 PM

Yeah.

Jaibones on June 18, 2007 at 7:38 PM

B Moe on June 18, 2007 at 7:22 PM

You and me both. It’s beyond comprehension – unless – the original plan called for installing a strongman to take over the infrastructure almost immediately. That would be the only way you’d discount an insurgency. Not that you wouldn’t expect one, but you’d expect the new Dictator to use the Iraqi army to suppress it quickly.

Let’s assume they just screwed up for the sake of argument. Then what are these guys still doing in planning strategy? They all should have been replaced immediately.

That’s the thing about Bush. I have a hard time believing he actually went to HBS. He obviously learned nothing about leadership and management there. He accepts incompetence in his subordinates and appoints people based not on competence but personal relationships.

He’s dead to me now. I think I’ve contracted BDS.

TheBigOldDog on June 18, 2007 at 7:47 PM

He needs to keep his goddamn mouth shut

tomas on June 18, 2007 at 8:25 PM

B Moe on June 18, 2007 at 7:22 PM

It really is un-freaking-believable.

The average talk radio listener coulda figured that one out.

infidel4life on June 18, 2007 at 8:46 PM

Ahhhhh…i told you this site would turn and it is.

tomas on June 18, 2007 at 8:53 PM

That’s the thing about Bush. I have a hard time believing he actually went to HBS. He obviously learned nothing about leadership and management there. He accepts incompetence in his subordinates and appoints people based not on competence but personal relationships.

He’s dead to me now. I think I’ve contracted BDS.

TheBigOldDog on June 18, 2007 at 7:47 PM

And when someone is loyal and doesn’t screw up, he ends up throwing that person to the dogs ala Libby.

Bush has turned in to a real bastard. I’m embarrassed he talks about his faith and conservatism, because he turns his back on the Christians in Palestine and Lebanon when he normalized Palestinian relations and he encouraging of Israel to use restraint.

He turns his back to justice and allows a legal unjustice to occur with the INS agents being tossed in jail and abusing those immigrants who came honestly and fairly here.

Tim Burton on June 18, 2007 at 9:10 PM

The Marshall Plan was unveiled in July of 1947

tomas on June 18, 2007 at 10:10 PM

Bad Candy on June 18, 2007 at 6:08 PM

Yeah.

Spirit of 1776 on June 18, 2007 at 6:11 PM

Yeah.

Jaibones on June 18, 2007 at 7:38 PM

Yeah.

IrishEi on June 19, 2007 at 12:57 AM

Everybody seems to be missing the point.

Who are we fighting AND WHY?

Do we have our troops in Iraq to fight for the Iraqi government, to prevent sectarian violence, or to defeat Al Qaeda? This is the question that needs focus, and Keane doesn’t seem to have a clue.

In fact, the entire left and Democratic Party (and the treasonous MSM) don’t have a clue either.

HOW we got into Iraq is an interesting historical anecdote. But it doesn’t mean jack squat today. What we are doing in Iraq NOW is what matters.

And this is what that is: We are fighting Al Qaeda ON THE BATTLE FIELD OF OUR CHOICE (always remember that is what this war has evolved into) And if we destroy them, we seriously damage or destroy the entire Jihadist movement, worldwide, and for years to come if not forever.

Iraq is simply the battlefield, the place where we draw, fix, and destroy our main enemy, Al Qaeda. Think Sun Tzu and that Iraq is Al Qaeda’s death ground.

Here’s how the sides to this conflict are lining up:

1. US and the Coalition is fighting two wars, and anti-sectarian one involving simply Iraqis, and the one against Al Qaeda. We are fighting one war too many.

2. The Sunnis are fighting a war mostly against Al Qaeda today. The evidence is that they are no longer seriously fighting against the United States (Baathists excepted) and the Shiites (except in revenge to Shia extremism).

3. The Shia are fighting the Sunnis in revenge for Sunni extremism (mostly instigated by Al Qaeda), and secondarily against the United States, at Iran’s instigation.

4. The Kurds are with us and against Al Qaeda. Neither Sunni nor Shia extremists are their major concern.

Here is a radical solution: We don’t have to solve the Shia/Sunni problem. If fact, WE CAN’T!! It’s been going on since the 7th Century. And we should not even try!

Our focus ought to be in destroying Al Qaeda in Iraq, and insuring by setting the stage, that what ever government that Iraq ends up with, Al Qaeda can’t come back and take over the country the way they did Afghanistan.

And if they try, we are there to smash them again.

Al Qaeda is SUNNI, which means that Iran won’t tolerate them turning Iraq into a SUNNI “HOLY STATE” or Caliphate as envisioned by bin Laden. They will never tolerate Sunni control either by Al Qaeda or the old Baathists. This is something we should exploit if we can.

The Kurds will never tolerate a Sunni state either. If they ask, we should guarantee their continued survival as an autonomous region the way we did when Saddam was still around. That means we defend Mosul. And their control of their oil fields if the Iraqi constitution falls.

The Sunnis want to get back into power because they sense “ethnic cleansing” coming their way, similar to the ethnic cleansing of the Marsh Arabs and the Shia in the south which occurred at their hands. They are justifiably afraid of being on the receiving end this time around.

The good news is that the Sunni insurgents have joined with us to destroy Al Qaeda in their part of Iraq. This is a very good thing.

Those Shia NOT aligned with Iran are also hot after Al Qaeda, because THEY know that Al Qaeda is behind the destruction of their holy places and most of the Baghdad bombings against the Shiia population. This is also a good thing.

We are focusing on our enemy, Al Qaeda, and this is good.

By the end of the year, Al Qaeda will be gone, I predict, and the “foreign fighters” will cease infiltrating. After all, who wants to be the last Jihadi to die for Allah when Allah doesn’t give enough of a sh*t to use his Almighty Power to drive the Great Satan out of Iraq in humiliation.

With Al Qaeda destroyed and routed, there is no need for America to be in Iraq outside of the Kurdish areas (if they want us), other than in garrison at our bases to prevent an Al Qaeda second attempt. The Sunni/Shia violence will damper down when there is no longer an Al Qaeda faction to incite it. The Sunni, Shia, and the Kurds *WILL* work something out that suits their culture concerning a government in Baghdad.

And because Iran is NOT well beloved by Iraqis (they’re Arab, Iranians are Persians), they Shiite militias loyal to them will be shut down by their fellow Shias rather than bow to Iran in the South.

My God, we are SO CLOSE to winning this thing and destroying Al Qaeda, that you have to be blind, or liberal, or a Bush-hating a-hole not to see how complete OUR victory will be.

The war against Saddam’s Iraq ENDED on 4/9/2003 when Baghdad fell.

The Iraq part of war against Al Qaeda will end shortly.
With us victorious as we were against Saddam.

And no matter what we do, Shiite will kill Sunny and vice versa for the centuries to come.

georgej on June 19, 2007 at 4:07 AM

They should move the Coalition forces out of the middle of the madness, have them control the oil fields, and guard the Kurdish region.

Then shoot at the “insurgents”, al-Qaeda in Iraq, foreign fighters, Iranian agents, et al, from the air, whenever they raise trouble using predator drones, cruise missiles, B-52’s, etc.

This sounds good on paper, but is essentially the Democrat position of “Strategic Redeployment” and is infeasible in practice. You can’t simply move back out of the cities and cherry pick the al-Qaeda, foreign fighters and Iranian agents from the air. It’s not like these guys are color coded and somehow standout from the millions of other Iraqis that you don’t want to bomb. Israel showed how futile that approach was last summer against Hezbollah and there were much clearer targets for them. To be able to sort out the good guys from the bad guys, you have to be among them, develop sources and get good intelligence. There’s no easy way to do that other than the counterinsurgency strategy that Petraeus is emplying right now. Not to mention that every time you mistakenly/accidentally hit a civillian target from the air (which is inevitable with such an approach) the MSM will be all over you screaming about war crimes and baby killers.

Dudley Smith on June 19, 2007 at 9:24 AM