Fred! gains big among black, Hispanic Republicans in California
posted at 11:39 am on June 5, 2007 by Allahpundit
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While McCain loses five points among both groups. Kaus says it’s the amnesty, stupid. Is it?
Fred’s made some appropriately cutting remarks about the shamnesty but it’s Romney who’s positioned himself as McCain’s chief critic on the bill. Hence St. John’s jabs at him in his speech yesterday. What thanks has Mitt earned for his anti-amnesty line? A flatline in the poll of Hispanics and a complete cratering among blacks, where Fred looks to have gobbled up his supporters. Newt’s also been a vocal critic of the bill, having ripped it once on the Factor when Michelle was guest-hosting and then again this past weekend on Fox News Sunday. He has surged a bit among Hispanics, but the gain among blacks is a single point. I’ve got to believe what’s driving the Fredmania here is what’s driving it among bloggers too: authentically conservative positions across the board in a “strong,” folksy, familiar package. The amnesty stuff helps a little but all the buzz about him finally jumping in helps a lot more. Tell me why I’m wrong.
Update: We had this in headlines earlier but if you missed it, Fred is number two with a bullet at Rasmussen and already leads Giuliani among men, 21-20. McCain is down a point — but so is Mitt.
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I can’t, because I think you’re spot on. Fred’s also got a charisma that, unlike Mitt’s, seems genuine and not overly practiced and “well oiled”.
flipflop on June 5, 2007 at 11:44 AM
Sweet.
DaveS on June 5, 2007 at 11:44 AM
I think people are just wondering if Mitt is sincere. While he holds more positions that are in line with the base, he just seems like a recent convert on too many. And coming from a state that produced a flip-flopping nominee in the last election doesn’t help either.
thirteen28 on June 5, 2007 at 11:51 AM
From the Examiner story from Headlines. Could have described Reagan, too, don’t you think? He never did well in those press conferences; I bet Fred! does better. But if he can read a script 1/2 as well as Reagan, LOOK OUT!
smellthecoffee on June 5, 2007 at 11:53 AM
AP,
What I find interesting also is, of all the candidates, Fred is the only one who would fit the normal “southern boy” stereotype. For his popularity to be so high amongst blacks in CA may signal (and I stress “may”) a shift away from the reality, or at least the perceived reality, that the south is still backward when it comes to civil rights, and civil rights issues. I have heard and read a lot of anecdotal stuff pointing to this shift in the black community, but I guess we will just have to wait and see. Also, this poll doesn’t cover a race between someone like Hillary or Obama and FRED! But time will tell.
Weight of Glory on June 5, 2007 at 11:58 AM
I was wondering when we were gonna get to this. If you look at the other demos, freds? numbers look even better. These results are from 500+ CA republicans and they would agree with his anti-amnesty stance regardless of ethnicity. His rhetoric is resonating with conservatives who are clearly unhappy with the rest of the field as is indicated by he and Newts increase in support. And that increase is not from undecideds, it’s coming directly from Rudy, McCain, and MITT! supporters.
The message to conservatives shouldn’t be just the rise in Newt and freds? numbers, it should be the fact that conservatives are jumping from candidates who are articulating their positions in tough venues, to non-candidates that are hiding from tough questioning. I guess that really isn’t true of Newt, he has gone on unfriendly shows and had to answer pretty tough questions. But fred? is definitely avoiding the tough interviews, and according to his former staffers, it’s because, as I have said all along, he is extremely inadequate when having to speak without a prepared speech or in adversarial confines. Now, they say he can learn, but he doesn’t have time to make mistakes in debates and still pull this off. The first time he starts sounding like a robot, he’s toast.
Now, just to try and stave off another childish series of attacks on me, I suggest your fred?-ites stick to the issues.
csdeven on June 5, 2007 at 12:02 PM
Yeah, I think your dead wrong on that. Reagan was known as the great communicator for some very good reasons. I have never in all my years ever heard anyone say Reagan couldn’t speak off the cuff.
csdeven on June 5, 2007 at 12:08 PM
Excellent point. I’d like to see a similar poll among southern blacks.
Brat on June 5, 2007 at 12:08 PM
I think it has more to do with what Fred represents, than what his positions are. There was a story this morning about the falling approval numbers for Congress and the Democrats. Combine that with the already low numbers for the Republicans and it shows that Americans have a problem with their politicians.
I would be interested to see numbers on the left for Al Gore, because what I believe is happening is that the established candidates jumped into the race far too early and are now seen as part of the existing, unpopular, political class.
Fred and perhaps Gore are seen as outside this class and for that reason are growing in popularity for what they represent.
Slublog on June 5, 2007 at 12:08 PM
that should be YOU fred-ites, as I would not like AP to think it is perceived that they belong to him.
csdeven on June 5, 2007 at 12:11 PM
Yeah. Good points. I think you’re dead on with Gore. He is experiencing just about the same thing as fred? is.
csdeven on June 5, 2007 at 12:14 PM
Giuliani is widely known to have run a sancuary policy in NY, McCain is helping write the travesty of an amnesty bill, and Romney is a proven flip-flopping RINO and to me looks like a rich snakeoil salesman. Fred and Gingrich have both come out very publicly and consistantly against amnesty in whatever form it takes. It will be interesting to see what the polls show after the debates tonight and Fred! and Gingrich have had thier post-debate add-ins. Fred is supposed to be on H&C directly after the debates, should be interesting.
P. James Moriarty on June 5, 2007 at 12:14 PM
Exactly Slubbo, good point.
Bad Candy on June 5, 2007 at 12:14 PM
Csdeven, I have a question for you.
Should Thompson formally become a candidate for the nomination, and receive the nomination, will you support him then?
georgej on June 5, 2007 at 12:32 PM
Why? Do you expect anything other than how the polls are already trending?
csdeven on June 5, 2007 at 12:35 PM
They found enough black Republicans for a scientific poll? I guess things aren’t as bad as I thought.
frankj on June 5, 2007 at 12:35 PM
Look at the level of excitement, all around among the various candidates’ supporters, as Fred Thompson approaches entering the race. That can’t be bad for the party.
Lamonte Thomas on June 5, 2007 at 12:36 PM
I’m a little worried about Fred on the stump and debates. We’re so used to seeing him literally scripted on TV and movies that we think that’s just the way he is. Those high expectations may hurt him because no one can be as witty and folksy as a scripted character in a movie. I think he is right on just about all the issues (McCain-Feingold being the notable exception) that matter to conservatives, and has been for some time, so maybe that will be enough for him. I’m pulling for him to do well, but I’m just a little worried that the idea of Fred! will always be better than the reality of Fred.
Dudley Smith on June 5, 2007 at 12:41 PM
No because I’m still waiting for him to actually have to run for the office. All he is doing now is practicing rhetoric. What he will get is the respect I afford any person with the stones to put it all on the line.
After I see what he can do, I’ll make a tentative decision on his viability as the nominee. But in the end, I will support whichever candidate that polls the best against the dems front runner. And I have been reading up on polling, and I have heard the best polls to use are the local polls as opposed to national polls. So as the months go on, I will probably use the local polls in key areas to determine which candidate can take tradition dem strongholds away from their front runner.
And after that, I will 100% support the republican nominee.
Please don’t ask me this again, because every time I articulate this, fools come out of the woodwork and call me a troll.
csdeven on June 5, 2007 at 12:44 PM
Yep.
csdeven on June 5, 2007 at 12:46 PM
Would like to see Fred walk onto the debate stage tonight for a cameo appearance.
Brat on June 5, 2007 at 12:46 PM
Not necessarily expecting anything in particular. My own interest will be to see how the public at large takes both the debates themselves and the post debate commentaries. I’m also interested in the post debate commentaries themselves. One thing that might make you happy, and BTW I’m interested to see, is how Fred handles mixing it up with Colmes. Of course that assumes that Colmes takes to op to ask some good questions. Freds scheduled to be on for 20 min.s and that gives plenty of time for Colmesy to cut lose.
Like I said, it will be interesting to see the poll results when the dust settles a little after the debates.
P. James Moriarty on June 5, 2007 at 12:48 PM
Totally…
heatherrc77 on June 5, 2007 at 12:56 PM
I hate to jump all over you, csdeven, but you left a hanging curveball (actually, I don’t hate to do it).
I believe the question was, “Should Thompson formally become a candidate for the nomination, and receive the nomination, will you support him then?” Sure sounded like a “no” to me, but I’ll let the tape continue to roll.
STOP THE TAPE! So, if Barak Obama were to become manipulative enough to abandon the Dhimm banner and go straight to the general, you’d back him? Okay, roll tape.
You started to say something intelligent, because the actual election is a state-by-state election. However, the key isn’t to pick off the Californias and New Yorks because unless a Pubbie is married to a Kennedy, the elephants/rinos won’t be taking those states. It’s to take battleground states.
So, which is it? Your first answer or your final answer?
I’ll leave the T-word to those that have been here longer than I. I will say that this particular articulation was devoid of linear thought.
steveegg on June 5, 2007 at 12:59 PM
As for the numbers, it sure looks like the base of the Republican Party (no matter how it’s sliced) is looking for a conservative or a close facsimilie thereof, and the current crop is sorely lacking in that department.
steveegg on June 5, 2007 at 1:01 PM
Good heavens! The million word manifesto continues. I think you could pool a tidy sum of money from other HA posters who would pay dearly to get your wife to wear a Fred mask to bed one night and video tape your reaction.
Bradky on June 5, 2007 at 1:07 PM
That is your mistake. It is clear that you came into this with preconceived notion that you’d find something to disagree with. You have to read with an open mind. If you’ll go back and read that again, it’ll be abundantly clear that what you thought was a hanging curve, was a slider. Strike one. ;-)
csdeven on June 5, 2007 at 1:12 PM
Here in Chicago a lot of the black population is very uncomfortable with the rise of the hispanic political structure in the city. As a consequence they are at odds with the Democratic party when it comes to amnesty. I imagine for black Republicans it is doubly so. I am pretty sure you will not see a lot of members of the Congressional Black Caucus voting for the immigration bill.
So you will be supporting the Republican nominee even if it is Fred!?
Bill C on June 5, 2007 at 1:15 PM
I expect that fred? and Newts numbers will continue to rise and depending on good performances tonight, Rudy and MITT! might just level out. I don’t think McCain can do anything to salvage his candidacy. I think there is still room for Huckabee and Tancredo to look good as possible cabinet candidates or perhaps a VP slot. Now, since only the base is really watching fred?, if Colmesy makes him stumble (if fred? has to interview with Colmes ) you could see some rethinks about fred?.
csdeven on June 5, 2007 at 1:25 PM
Absolutely. I have said so from day one.
csdeven on June 5, 2007 at 1:26 PM
Okey dokey artichokey. BTW, if that isn’t one of Fred!’s aphorisms, it should be.
Bill C on June 5, 2007 at 1:40 PM
I don’t think I agree with your assumtion that only the base will watch the post debate stuff, like Fred! or not, there has been signifigant buzz in more than just the web, and more than just the base may tune in. Who knows. Could be, might be, assuming this or that, who may or may not watch, how the media will or won’t cover the debates and the after events, or any wildcard statements, bad or good, by candidates or almost candidates….it’s all speculation. Debating what might happen is pointless. We’ll just have to see how it turns out. What I’m interested in seeing is the raw data (the debates and interviews) then the reaction in the polls.
P. James Moriarty on June 5, 2007 at 1:40 PM
That’s funny; I’m seeing the first and second base umpires giving me the home run sign, and the fans in the right-field bleachers fighting over the souvenir deposited 15 rows back.
Now, if you had said what you did at 1:26, your head wouldn’t have been on a swivel.
steveegg on June 5, 2007 at 1:44 PM
Are we still dancing around this…..poll?
Nobody poled me.
Kini on June 5, 2007 at 1:56 PM
Hopeing and praying, Amen!
omnipotent on June 5, 2007 at 2:05 PM
Had you read instead of come in with a predisposed attitude, we wouldn’t be having this discussion.
About me…AGAIN.
csdeven on June 5, 2007 at 3:23 PM
Well, I guess it was inevitable, Huckabee just fired a shot across “the good ship freddie boys” bow.
It’s on. fred? has painted a big red bullseye on himself.
csdeven on June 5, 2007 at 3:30 PM
CS,
You slay me . . . your sentiments (above) are laughable coming from the poster boy for close-minded predisposition -at least when it has to do with Fred!
All AP or BP need to do is post a headline that contains the word “Fred!” and suddenly you’re a posting fool taking on all comers and dominating the thread with your Fred! hate.
There’s some deep psychosis here – very fascinating. Care to share your deep issues?
The Ritz on June 5, 2007 at 4:53 PM
A guy who is barely polling above RP is calling Fred! a mouse?
Plleeaaassse.
Bill C on June 5, 2007 at 4:54 PM
Pre-debate prediction….
Winner….Newt.
looks like, from running through CNN and MSNBC, that Fred! is going to be thrown on the stage for everyone to kick around. Guiliani and Romney have nothing to loose by jumping on the dog pile. You should have announced sooner Fred! because the pack is going to nail you tonight(and I’m a Fred! groupie).
Limerick on June 5, 2007 at 5:46 PM
And they didn’t even poll me.
baldilocks on June 5, 2007 at 6:00 PM
Limerick on June 5, 2007 at 5:46 PM
That would be a major mistake for Rudy, Mitt, and McCain. A Fred throwdown when he isn’t there would translate to big poll numbers for Fred make them look weak.
Buzzy on June 5, 2007 at 6:01 PM
Fred is going to be the nominee and the next president. All the negative comments aside he is going to be the guy.
At least, if he is not we are all in trouble.
duff65 on June 5, 2007 at 6:09 PM
Nothing I would like better, but the field isn’t weak. Guiliani, Romney or Newt are all capable of giving him a bar fight. I’m officially on the fence until I see him actually perform. I’ll support the man who wins the nod. I hope it is Fred! but I ain’t counting my chickens yet.
Limerick on June 5, 2007 at 6:15 PM
:-)
I’m glad this slays you. I have a good time with it also. I’m glad another one of you fred? supporters gets it.
But just to clarify a tinsy tiny bit of nuance on freds? candidacy. He isn’t one. As good a time as you are having, if you’ll keep that little tidbit in mind when reading me, you’ll come close to having as much fun as I do. :-)
csdeven on June 5, 2007 at 6:32 PM
Oh lighten up. It was funny. Besides, actual candidates get to say stuff like that to non-candidates.
csdeven on June 5, 2007 at 6:34 PM
I am sure that freds? record will be tough enough for him to overcome and the actual candidates wont bother debating a guy who refuses to get into the fray with them. I think the worse that will happen is some sniping ala Huckabee.
csdeven on June 5, 2007 at 6:38 PM
I am sorry. I totally missed the reason behind your reference to CNN. You’re right. CNN will toss fred? on the stage and try to force the candidates into debating him. Hopefully they wont get into the fray.
Nice point though. I forgot about CNN’s bias after watching what I thought was a fairly even handed debate with the dems.
csdeven on June 5, 2007 at 6:44 PM
I’m tired of hearing about how Romney is not really a concervative. He battled the moonbats hordes in MA for years, against all odds.
Resolute on June 5, 2007 at 7:39 PM
The poll looks good. Phred’s a cool guy and that’s going to resonate with everyone regardless of how much melanin is in their skin.
Mojave Mark on June 5, 2007 at 9:05 PM
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