670 quintillion to 1: Golfer makes 10 holes-in-one in four months
posted at 2:55 pm on May 18, 2007 by Allahpundit
That’s the conservative estimate. Adjust your probability assumptions slightly and the odds are 12 septillion (12,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000) to 1.
Even so, her story appears to check out. 10 aces. Four months. One of them bounced off a tree and went in.
Thanks to Michael V. for the tip. Slooooow-news-Friday exit question: Does this prove God’s existence?
Update: Changed the headline from “aces” to “holes-in-one” for the benefit of non-golfers.
Blowback
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What’s an ace?
Blacklake on May 18, 2007 at 2:56 PM
Reminds me of the Babel fish. Thus, it’s so improbable it disproves Him.
frankj on May 18, 2007 at 2:57 PM
Well, a golf club -is- perfectly designed for a human pair of hands.
lorien1973 on May 18, 2007 at 3:00 PM
What is the probability that we’ll see the “Does this prove God’s existence” repeated 100 times in this thread?
Or that Darwin, Socrates, Falwell, Hitchens will all show up?
Entelechy on May 18, 2007 at 3:05 PM
Actually, these odds would more favor proving darwinian evolution since those numbers are closer to its odds.
Editor on May 18, 2007 at 3:06 PM
Big deal. I did the same thing at the local Mini-Putt and I didn’t get any press. And I had to shoot through a windmill.
Nethicus on May 18, 2007 at 3:07 PM
So Darwin, Socrates, Falwell, and Hitchens all walk into a bar, and the bartender says, “Does this prove God’s existence?”
Lehosh on May 18, 2007 at 3:07 PM
Now this is IMPORTANT!
Dread Pirate Roberts VI on May 18, 2007 at 3:09 PM
I’m not impressed, having knowledge of the golfing skills of Kim Jong Ill – who had 11 aces in one 18-hole round of golf.
I’m pretty sure there were witnesses too :)
fogw on May 18, 2007 at 3:11 PM
Don’t know what it says about God, but it seems to shoot the hell out of the Third Law of thermodynamics.
RedWinged Blackbird on May 18, 2007 at 3:13 PM
Fixed.
James on May 18, 2007 at 3:14 PM
Descartes walked into the same bar. The ‘tender asks him if he’d like to try a new drink. Rene says “I think not”, and immediately vanishes.
Almost on-topic, mathematicians still scratch their heads over DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak as among the most numerically improbable events of history.
Outside of the paranormal, the occurence of a singular event only proves that that event happened.
Parting of the Red Sea, the oil not failing, walking on water, those prove something else, but only if you were there OR trust the testimony of those who were.
Freelancer on May 18, 2007 at 3:14 PM
aw crap, fogw, you beat me to it.
:)
RushBaby on May 18, 2007 at 3:15 PM
I’ve never played goof.
Does God play through?
Kini on May 18, 2007 at 3:17 PM
Nice.
The Babel fish?
Esthier on May 18, 2007 at 3:18 PM
“Does this prove God’s existence?”
Perhaps.
Perhaps it proves the existance of a new technology, “hole seeking golf balls,” instead.
georgej on May 18, 2007 at 3:18 PM
Tried – mum’s the word from them!
Entelechy on May 18, 2007 at 3:19 PM
Friday
stupidsmartLucky.TheBigOldDog on May 18, 2007 at 3:21 PM
Esthier, you MUST read Douglas Adams to understand many subculture references in the modern electronic age.
He is the author of The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.
Freelancer on May 18, 2007 at 3:21 PM
I think the fact that we can ask the question, and have feelings about it, proves G-d’s existence.
stonemeister on May 18, 2007 at 3:21 PM
Thanks for that :P
On the “ID” front; did you ever see a showtime special called “do-do’s: the intelligent design debate” (or something like that).
Made some good points there, against ID and who is backing the movement – which I need to check out more. Cuz if its true, creationists are really being used.
lorien1973 on May 18, 2007 at 3:23 PM
Oh, and within the Hitchhiker’s saga, the babel fish was inserted into your ear. It feeds off of spoken audio waves, and excretes into your brain the information necessary for you to understand what was spoken, regardless of language used. Therefore, a universal translator.
That is why the popular translation website is called BabelFish.com
Freelancer on May 18, 2007 at 3:24 PM
“Oh, quit cogitating, Steinmetz, and use an open-faced club. The sand wedge!”
Mmmm…open-face club sandwich…
JetBoy on May 18, 2007 at 3:28 PM
Giovanni (Boccaccio), after 99 had already gathered in that bar, walks in “I heard there’s a pretty clean gathering here. May I join you?”
Entelechy on May 18, 2007 at 3:39 PM
I don’t know if it proves God, but DOES prove she should have buying lottery tickets.
Blaise on May 18, 2007 at 3:42 PM
Maybe it’s that forgotten eighth seal of the Apocalypse…
“And behold, the eighth seal was opened and I saw a woman, clothed with the sun, in a field with her staff upon which she struck tenfold a mighty blow to a white sphere. She went forth conquering the sphere with such authority that the sphere traveled wherever she commanded before disappearing under the Red Banner of Death. And a crown was given unto her – and she went forth conquering, and to conquer.”
CliffHanger on May 18, 2007 at 3:45 PM
Are there really odds for skill? Granted scoring ten aces is unusual, but I think that Arnold Palmer shot two aces years ago in a tournament or in the warm-up to the tournament. This is skill, not chance, and I don’t see how the special creation-evolution debate got dragged into this.
archon2001 on May 18, 2007 at 3:49 PM
12 setptillion to 1, not 12 septillion to 0. I’ll put 5 bucks down that says she doesn’t do it again if she plays a septillion more rounds or so.
Then again, maybe she’s just scary good at par 3′s and those stats don’t apply to her.
And there’s always the possibility it’s a hoax. What are the odds some duffer and a couple of her friends doctor up a few scorecards to get on Letterman?
God? Maybe it proves he has a sense of humor, if he exists.
RightOFLeft on May 18, 2007 at 3:51 PM
No it just proves that she keeps her eye on the ball and ought to think seriously about going pro.
doriangrey on May 18, 2007 at 3:57 PM
Me? an 8 handicap and I’ve never had ONE. (I’ve probably prayed a little)
BUT, I know a guy, was 75 to79 years old, hits it low, can’t hit a 230 drive w/driver yet he honestly hits 4-5 aces a year on a full course….
His aces come on 152 to 195 yard par 3′s…every year for 4-5 years in a row. Los Verdes/ Denver- true story.
ok, I’ll bite.
Does the God question prove the existence of stupid questions?
DING I think we have a winner.
shooter on May 18, 2007 at 4:26 PM
kiakjones on May 18, 2007 at 4:29 PM
The offhand estimate of “the only statistician at a local college” is probably not terribly accurate. Down further in the article – and even more so in the followup – more seasoned mathematicians give their opinions. There are various explanations for how such a seemingly unlikely event could have come to pass, but many of them boil down to the following: The numerical estimates all assume that each hole-in-one is an independent event. This assumption is clearly wrong – a person’s future golf game is affected by their past ones and both are affected by common causes – which may bring the joint probability down from the reported astronomical heights to something a little more believable. As to why or how much they are dependent, that’s in the realm of idle speculation.
In short, if you’re looking for proof of God’s existence, look elsewhere. If you’re looking for evidence of simplicity, inaccuracy, and gullibility in reporting, however, the Desert Sun might be a good place to start.
calbear on May 18, 2007 at 4:32 PM
Now you’re just being silly. :)
Enrique on May 18, 2007 at 4:34 PM
And yet, this man has never been struck by lightning, thank goodness.
Shooter, FYI. Your link isn’t linking…
CliffHanger on May 18, 2007 at 4:34 PM
Dimaggio’s streak was influenced by the presence of an “official scorer.” In one of his games late in the streak there was a questionable ruling regarding whether he got a hit or was on by an error. The scorer ruled it a hit and the streak continued. Holes in one are either in or out; there is no subjectiveness to them.
I got a “Freddy Couples Hole in One” once. I hit my tee ball out of bounds. I was so annoyed, I teed up the second one and just smacked it. The green was elevated, so I didn’t see it go in the cup. We searched for several minutes before I checked the hole and found out it was in. I saw Freddy do that at the Players Championship many years ago. On the 17th hole he hit his tee shot in the water, teed up a second ball, and knocked it in the hole for a par 3.
On the Wednesday of Masters week, they have a fun tournament on the Par 3 course. There are usually one or two holes in one, but you have the best golfers in the world hitting to greens on short holes, less than 150 yards.
Mallard T. Drake on May 18, 2007 at 4:43 PM
It proves the existence of the golf Gods. Every time I tee it up I wonder what the golf Gods have in store for me that day.
Ann on May 18, 2007 at 4:57 PM
I think the possibility of it being a hoax is a SKEPillion to 1.
Wade on May 18, 2007 at 5:03 PM
It is, at least, support for some sort of intelligent design. The odds of a self-replicating cell arising from non-living raw materials by itself is approximately 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000 to 1. (that’s 10^300 to 1)
That’s like getting 10 aces a septillion, septillion, septillion, septillion, septillion, septillion, septillion, septillion, septillion, septillion, septillion, septillion times.
Suddenly 12 billion years seems like a heart-beat.
jdpaz on May 18, 2007 at 5:07 PM
You can check my math but the odds of a septillion septillion golfers each making a septillion septillion aces every septillionth of a septillionth of a second for 3,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 millenia is approximately the same as a single self-replicating cell arising by chance.
jdpaz on May 18, 2007 at 5:39 PM
I’m sure if I look around I can find something else to do.
jdpaz on May 18, 2007 at 5:43 PM
My odds of getting a date with Jessica Alba suddenly don’t seem so bad …
Professor Blather on May 18, 2007 at 5:52 PM
It’s a relative certainty Professor. Good luck with that!1
jdpaz on May 18, 2007 at 5:56 PM
Evil Scottish game anyway………..
Limerick on May 18, 2007 at 6:01 PM
It would prove the existence of God if she got a banana-in-one.
Attila (Pillage Idiot) on May 18, 2007 at 6:03 PM
I’m rusty on my math skills. Is a septillion more than a jazillion?
Tennman on May 18, 2007 at 6:29 PM
Probability can’t really be calculated for things like this anyways. The figure relies on the probability of any number of other amateurs making a hole in one, and applies that to this one person, which is ridiculous. In other words, she’s just good at shooting for the ace.
Seixon on May 18, 2007 at 6:47 PM
in other words it’s a googol googol googol to one—only slightly less than a jazillion to one.
jdpaz on May 18, 2007 at 6:59 PM
I have an actual philosopher joke.
Bertrand Russell asks one of his students “I’m going out the weekend on my yacht. Would you care to join me?”
The student eagerly accepts, and has visions of sharing drinks and exchanging ideas with one of the 20th century’s great minds in the luxurious cabin of the man’s vessel.
When he arrives at the pier, though, Russell is setting working at the rigging on a little dingy consisting of little more than a hollowed-out hull, a couple of bench seats, and a tiny sail. Russell notices his student’s look of surprise.
“It’s just that when you said your ‘yacht’, I thought it would be bigger than it is,” the student explains.
Russell considers this a moment. “No,” he finally says. “My yacht is not bigger than it is.”
(You shouldn’t expect much from philosopher jokes, by the way.)
Blacklake on May 18, 2007 at 8:00 PM
Ya, but he through himself at the ground, AND MISSED! Think of the odds man!
Rode Werk on May 18, 2007 at 9:00 PM
and I cant win LOTTO once….dammit.
Hey, maybe the guy is justu a darn good golfer. Its not like he was blindfolded or anything.
johnnyU on May 18, 2007 at 11:09 PM
You don’t need to be good if you’re lucky.
locomotivebreath1901 on May 19, 2007 at 9:51 AM
I realized that the earlier explanation of the Babel fish was not only slightly innacurate, but didn’t explain the connection to the question of God’s existence…
Freelancer on May 19, 2007 at 2:44 PM
“Dont Panic”
Always remeber your towel.
mrfixit on May 20, 2007 at 11:48 AM