Gallup: Rudy 31, McCain 22, Fred! 12; Update: Groundswell for Fred! among House GOP?
posted at 5:25 pm on March 26, 2007 by Allahpundit
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It’s their first poll since Fred! started making noise about getting in. Most interesting is who he seems to be drawing votes from:
Chosen by 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, Thompson is third in the Republican field. He trails former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, at 31%, and Arizona Sen. John McCain, at 22%. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich is at 8%.
Thompson’s support seems to come largely from voters who had supported Giuliani. In the USA TODAY poll taken March 2-4, Giuliani’s standing had been 13 percentage points higher, at 44%. McCain’s support had been 2 points lower then.
Backing for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, widely considered a leading contender, has dropped. He was chosen by 3%, the same as Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback. Romney’s support in early March had been 8%.
The fact that he’s bleeding votes from Rudy confirms what we’ve suspected, that Rudy’s appeal has less to do with his policies than his projection of alpha-male authority-figure personal strength. Fred!’s putting out the same vibe, which neutralizes Giuliani and makes it a contest on the issues. And that’s not a contest Rudy wants. But if Fred!’s taking from Rudy, who’s taking from Mitt? Or is it less a question of people taking from Mitt than Mitt’s supporters abandoning ship? Ryan Sager hints that maybe it’s the latter. Romney’s swimming in dough, but he still has yet to make a distinct impression despite the fact that he’s been running for months. That makes conservatives nervous, I think, given the high profiles on the left and among the other candidates on the right. We tried a low-key decent guy against a rock star in 1996 and it didn’t work out. The stakes are too high to try it again in 2008.
Exit question: Fred!/Joementum fusion?
Update: She’s going to be tough to beat, dude. Good lord.
Update: Interest in a Fred! candidacy among House Republicans is such that they had to schedule two separate meet and greets for April 18th, according to Politico. Rep. Zach Wamp, who’s leading the Draft Fred movement, says he expects a decision sometime in May.
Update: Hmmmm.
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Hell no! I like Joe as a Senator pissing off leftists, but the dudes name has been tacked to two failed presidential bids. Plus he’s a solid lib on everything but the war.
Bad Candy on March 26, 2007 at 5:30 PM
The “public” hasn’t really seen or gotten to know Romney yet. If he can do repeat versions of his CPAC speech all over the country, his numbers will go way up.
mesablue on March 26, 2007 at 5:30 PM
Giuliani/Thompson in ‘08!
Jim-Rose on March 26, 2007 at 5:35 PM
If only Tancredo had the deep, pleasing nasal tones that Fred has. So deep. So pleasing.
Seriously though, how would a guy like Fred catch up on the fundraising coming in this late in the game? You’ve got to be in it to win it… he better get hot.
MT on March 26, 2007 at 5:37 PM
And, how is being 19 points down exciting. More like, ouch, the numbers aren’t even close.
So, like Jim-Rose just said, the uber ticket — Giuliani/Thompson.
The lefties would just run away and cry in fear.
mesablue on March 26, 2007 at 5:37 PM
12 points and he hasn’t announced. Fred for President.
Sven on March 26, 2007 at 5:40 PM
I prefer Thompson/Giuliani. Again, not to fond of Rudy’s social positions…
wryteacher on March 26, 2007 at 5:40 PM
Fred’s not running as anyone’s veep. He’s too alpha to play second fiddle. The only possible veep among the major candidates is Romney.
Allahpundit on March 26, 2007 at 5:41 PM
Wow, so the social liberal, who’s pro-choice, has been pro-gun control, and has been married 3 times, is now only leading the red meat Conservative by 19 points. McCain, still holding 10 points above Thompson.
You mean, like Thompson, who most people haven’t heard of, unless you follow politics closely? The only thing they know about him, is he’s a good actor.
amerpundit on March 26, 2007 at 5:48 PM
Yeah, I can see the lowkey guy against a “rock star” now. Thompson vs. Hillary or Obama.
amerpundit on March 26, 2007 at 5:49 PM
Watch out for Thompson-McCain… I’ve heard that they’re good friends. Heart-ache?
MT on March 26, 2007 at 5:53 PM
Who won this week’s Pajamas Media strawpoll? I haven’t been able to get onto PM’s site. Maybe its down, or I’m just having problems with my pc.
amerpundit on March 26, 2007 at 5:53 PM
No matter how much $$ she raises I can’t see Mrs. Clinton getting 50% of the vote, plus one.
The real danger is that she can get close enough so that a little fraud here and there will push her over the top.
Labamigo on March 26, 2007 at 5:54 PM
Good point, and that’s probably what he will be – a veep candidate come election time.
Rick on March 26, 2007 at 5:57 PM
Re: Unity ‘08 – They studiously avoid articulating any positions outside of “Lobbyists are evil.” 1) They’re wrong on that point, and 2) they smell like liberals ashamed of the DNC and afraid of the nutroots. Screw that.
Thompson’s intriguing, but I wanna see him fight for it like everyone else. I don’t understand people who are trying to just give it to him. Earn it Fred, you’re a conservative. And I still think that no matter who gets picked for Pres., Gingrich is the best VP candidate out there if he can check his ego at the door.
The Apologist on March 26, 2007 at 6:02 PM
alpha male?
Valiant on March 26, 2007 at 6:07 PM
STEELE.
Kai on March 26, 2007 at 6:11 PM
Yeah, if there’s a solid conservative alternative to Rudy I’m all over it. Its not enough to be tough on terror. You’ve got to ensure that the values that made the country great are protected. Fred! seems to get it. Rudy doesn’t.
McCain maybe a great guy but he’s too opportunistic and not principled enough.
Romney is a solid VP, but I’d still prefer a solid conservative like Santorum. He’s got to get himself some executive experience. That guy’s the 2012 or 2016 candidate.
Iblis on March 26, 2007 at 6:11 PM
Solid conservative alternative to rudy? Mike Pence of Indiana-Thompson/Pence 08
tormod on March 26, 2007 at 6:18 PM
At a certain point aren’t there diminishing returns on Hillary! raking in the money? How many ads can the American people take seeing her on TV? Won’t there even be a negative effect at some point?
Dudley Smith on March 26, 2007 at 6:20 PM
The guy’s famous and, more to the point, he gets conservatives excited. Romney doesn’t do that. Neither did Dole. That’s what I mean when I say we need a rock star — someone who’s going get right-wingers motivated to go out and vote for him.
Allahpundit on March 26, 2007 at 6:21 PM
I don’t think it’s crazy that Thompson is pulling Rudy votes. I’ll vote for Rudy, definitely, but as I don’t believe he will make it out of the primary I’m on the lookout for someone that can be viable in the primary and the general election so we don’t get stuck with McCain.
Karol on March 26, 2007 at 6:21 PM
The republican primary will be a power struggle in a party that is lost…while the dem primary will be a bright shiny lovefest for an incredible pool of individuals.
tomas on March 26, 2007 at 6:25 PM
Romney is kind of like the Silky Pony of the Republicans – what I mean by that is that he’s trying to hard to please, and that appears to just be hurting him more and more.
Rick on March 26, 2007 at 6:28 PM
Thompson/That female Ronald McDonald
- The Cat
MirCat on March 26, 2007 at 6:36 PM
Nice joke!
I’m hoping for Hillary to win the Dhemocrat primary. You need the male vote to win and she’ll never get it. She’s everybody’s ex-wife rolled into one.
in order:
1) Gingrich
2) Thompson
3) Tancredo
The Republican white house would also have a very cool pool of talent for the cabinet. Can you imagine a Giuliani as Secretary of State? Kewl no?
Mojave Mark on March 26, 2007 at 6:49 PM
Looks like Fred! is pulling votes from Newt as well. Newt was almost always in double-digits and usually in third place behind Rudy and McCain before Fred! became a possibility.
aero on March 26, 2007 at 7:18 PM
All due respect, Allah, they guy’s not famous. Just because we and a bunch of other political junkies have heard of him, doesn’t make him famous. The people who’ve watched his tv show, and voted in the elections he’s been in, have heard of him.
The ultimate question, which must be asked, is, will the Electoral college trust him over Hillary? A woman who has been a Senator for the last 6 constant years, having been a former First Lady?
amerpundit on March 26, 2007 at 7:20 PM
ooh!
jummy on March 26, 2007 at 7:25 PM
There was a poll that Michelle posted about a little while back. It said that many Social Conservatives voted for Giuliani in the poll, knowing where he stands on social issues.
If we’re gonna get anything done in Washington, the next President will need to compromise somewhat. A 100% Conservative or 100% Liberal. Will the EC pick a candidate that’s 100% take no prisoners, candidate? Or will they choose the person who’s more moderate, and willing to act bi-partisanly. Our visions of another President as socially Conservative as Bush, I feel are far from the truth, at least in ‘08.
amerpundit on March 26, 2007 at 7:26 PM
I we get someone as LIBERAL as Bush 43 I’ll be ticked off.
Fred! is the wave of the future.™
omnipotent on March 26, 2007 at 7:42 PM
If we get……sorry
omnipotent on March 26, 2007 at 7:42 PM
I’ve never gotten the surge of Fred mania, after all, Romney is crucified for “flipping on abortion”, yet Fred has done the same thing. Why’s he getting a pass? And Fred’s a senator, not an executive.
Vanceone on March 26, 2007 at 7:51 PM
Very true. But if you want Fred! to win no matter what news comes out, you don’t see the similarities.
amerpundit on March 26, 2007 at 8:10 PM
How about Fred!/Condi ticket?
Could that siphon off some of the female and black voters who don’t want to slide to the left of center? Or is Condi too polarizing or too much association with the President to appeal to the central voters?
Mallard T. Drake on March 26, 2007 at 8:12 PM
I was all set to vote third party until Fred came along.
While he may not be 100% Reagan (show me someone who is) he seams to be the best so far.
I do hope he runs.
F15Mech on March 26, 2007 at 9:08 PM
Fred is going to be the next president if he just gets into the race soon. He has something that all the other candidates lack and that is the ability to be elected. If he just goes with Steele or Kasich for VP it will be a slam dunk.
duff65 on March 26, 2007 at 9:46 PM
I like the way you’ve been headlining him as Fred!
This is really important and I think will bleed voters from Rudy.
One difference between Fred! and Mitt on prolife issues is that Thompson now has a prolife voting history behind him and Mitt’s fairly new to the fold. Anyone can change their mind, but I like to see a little validation that it was a change of mind and not just a change of policy.
One big difference for me personally, is that I can see myself voting for Rudy over Hillary, but not volunteering for GOTV. What would I say? Yeah, he’s better and tougher than Hillary on the GWOT, but I know he’s been liberal on social issues and pro gun control?!! There’s a big difference between showing up in a voting booth and being willing to be a volunteer.
Fred!–well, for the first time for all of these candidates, I’ve been thinking I’d be willing to get out and work for him.
As for Veep, I agree that Mitt’s the only one running whom I can see for that–but I’d like to also consider Steele or Watts or Santorum.
INC on March 26, 2007 at 9:50 PM
Yes, in this sense: intellectual strength and the ability to communicate well enough to roll back the anti-Enlightenment left’s influence over public debate.
Also, Rudy is making school choice a major issue in his campaign. Need I say, breaking the hold of the NEA (soon!) is essential to the survival of this country as we know it. Where are the other candidates on school choice and academic freedom on campus?
But yes, I could be very happy with Fred too.
petefrt on March 26, 2007 at 10:25 PM
Never thought of Thompson/Steele. hmmm.
But I like Duncan Hunter. He needs more recognition.
CrimsonFisted on March 26, 2007 at 10:35 PM
Unity08 poster….I had the impression they were all waiting for something to fall outta da sky…just not sure what.
Romney….er…..poached egg on dry toast, no salt.
Fred….underdog with an attitude. The kind of attitude that can land him in the White House. Run Fred, run!
Limerick on March 26, 2007 at 10:35 PM
what I mean by that is that he’s [Mitt] trying to hard to please
Bingo! That’s the message that needs to be sent to him ASAP. He’s saying what he thinks people want to hear rather than what he think. That was why he got into trouble in Miami. Mitt is best on his feet. He’s “wicked smart” as we say in Boston so hopefully he’ll wake up quick.
That said, Mitt has no shot if Fred gets in. None. The best he could hope for then is a running-mate. Rudy/Mitt or Fred/Mitt. Rudy/Fred and Fred/Rudy are highly unlikely as AP points out.
Prediction: If Fred enters (which he will) he’ll quickly suck up all the oxygen and you’ll see McCain drop out quickly and Newt will stay out. Rudy and Mitt will hang around on life support for a while and Mitt will wind up Fred’s running-mate assuming nothing nasty comes out about either one of them.
TheBigOldDog on March 26, 2007 at 10:36 PM
-MT
A McCain duo would kill any interest I could muster for Thompson. Sorry.
Consider Thompson with Tancredo or Hunter . . .then you’re talking.
heroyalwhyness on March 26, 2007 at 10:45 PM
I can’t see McCain willing to be Veep to anyone. He’s not quite Alpha-Male, just call him Maverick Male!
INC on March 26, 2007 at 11:04 PM
This, dear tomas, I will play back for you in the first week of Nov. 2008.
Entelechy on March 26, 2007 at 11:11 PM
All Fred did was clear his throat, wait till he looks at the camera and says in that deep timber voice – “Conservatism is back”
EricPWJohnson on March 26, 2007 at 11:12 PM
Allah, I love the “Fred!” moniker too. It’s just so bloody fitting to how I feel when I say his name in relation to the Pres bid.
Can’t get that excited about ANYONE else out there.
Gingrich – Good conservative, but damaged goods, not electible.
Giuliani – Possibly electible. Tough guy on GWOT, but not a conservative.
Romney – Gov from the Communist State of Kennedy. Not a chance I’d be happy voting for’im. Don’t trust him.
McCain – I’d rather chew my own arm off then EVER vote for this vain, 1st Amendment-wrecking, attention-seeking airbag.
Tancredo – Know absolutely nothing about him, except he joined the pig-pile on Gonzalez. That was a manufactured scandal, and he gave it credibility by piling on. No thank you.
So, excuse me folks, while I continue to get excited about the one guy out there, who looks, sounds, acts and has voted like a conservative President.
So, looks like another prime place for me to shout,
“Thompson/Steele ‘08!!”
tickleddragon on March 27, 2007 at 12:15 AM
tickleddragon, you’re not the only one :)
Fred! It’s a happening. This toothpaste ain’t goin’ back into the tube…no way…I like it!
I spent last week in College Station, TX – they love him there a lot too! Met Tom Selleck in the Hilton elevator. Looks older but still very good. Active in politics – the place to be for such.
Entelechy on March 27, 2007 at 1:22 AM
Entelechy….
Now my wife is going to be hanging out in College Station elevators thanks to you!
Limerick on March 27, 2007 at 1:39 AM
Anecdote: my 50-something midwestern mother, who is almost apolitical and never reads blogs, is excited about Fred! I didn’t bring him up; she did.
kate q on March 27, 2007 at 1:42 AM
Once you’ve gone Fred, the others are filled with dred
EricPWJohnson on March 27, 2007 at 5:28 AM
“Giuliani/Thompson in ‘08!”—Jim-Rose
Screw that notion… you need a real conservative in the Presidents seat. Therefore, your talking about Thompson. The Rep Party can come up with a VP later.
gmaninatl on March 27, 2007 at 7:44 AM
I’ll say it again – THOMPSON / STEELE IN ‘08!!!
silenced majority on March 27, 2007 at 8:44 AM
Come on people! Vote Thompson! Forget everyone else!
msipes on March 27, 2007 at 11:09 AM
Yes, sir, contest over!
Limerick, my female colleagues are aiming for same :)
Entelechy on March 27, 2007 at 12:54 PM
I’m rather surprised that Fred! is taking supporters from Giuliani. I figured that most of his supporters would be former Gingritch supporters who realized that he wasn’t going to run/win, like myself.
Wolfman on March 27, 2007 at 1:23 PM
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