EU assessment: Iran will get the bomb; Update: Pace says no proof Iranian gov’t is arming militias
posted at 10:13 am on February 13, 2007 by Allahpundit
Will it? Letting Iran have the bomb means letting the Saudis and Egyptians have it, too, since the U.S. isn’t about to line up against the Sunnis any more so than we’ve already done in Iraq. Israel can’t afford proliferation in the Middle East and the Sunni governments probably aren’t all that hot for the idea either given the threat they face from jihadis, so if it comes to the point where attacking is the only solution, the IAF will play deus ex machina. Or rather, they’ll try to.
But we’re not there yet.
The downbeat conclusions of the “reflection paper” – seen by the Financial Times – are certain to be seized on by advocates of military action, who fear that Iran will be able to produce enough fissile material for a bomb over the next two to three years. Tehran insists its purposes are purely peaceful…
“In practice . . . the Iranians have pursued their programme at their own pace, the limiting factor being technical difficulties rather than resolutions by the UN or the International Atomic Energy Agency.
“The problems with Iran will not be resolved through economic sanctions alone.”
The admission is a blow to hopes that a deal with Iran can be reached and comes at a sensitive time, when tensions between the US and Tehran are rising.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies called Iranian nukes “inevitable” eight months ago, so this probably isn’t disinformation. If it is, if it’s the EU’s attempt to play good cop to Bush’s bad cop by giving him cover for an attack in hopes that that’ll bring Iran back to the table, it’s clumsy. A U.S. bombing run would line up Iranian opinion against America and line up American opinion against … America. And the regime knows it.
Meanwhile, Captain Ed says we’ve found the smoking gun(s) that prove Iranian meddling in Iraq. He’s right, but 800 rifles isn’t going to satisfy people as a casus belli any more than 500 chemical shells did.
Update: Former spook Robert Baer says not only is there no smoking gun, there never will be one. The Revolutionary Guards are too smooth.
Update: If, per leftist dogma, Bush is revving up the war machine, why is his Joint Chiefs Chairman downplaying the regime’s responsibility for Iranian armaments flowing in?
Blowback
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That’s noews is definitely not tha bomb.
Good Lt on February 13, 2007 at 10:14 AM
And by noews, I mean “noos.”
Good Lt on February 13, 2007 at 10:15 AM
Robert Baer? I’m not impressed.
flipflop on February 13, 2007 at 10:31 AM
This is the same EU that resisted sanctions.
infidel on February 13, 2007 at 10:36 AM
Sounds like the EU is having a “golly, gee – we’ve been played” moment. As some might say, “uh, no sh*t, Sherlock”.
CP on February 13, 2007 at 10:39 AM
With there help…Iran will be prevail. yikes.
tomas on February 13, 2007 at 10:45 AM
Wait!. What about more dialogue?
JammieWearingFool on February 13, 2007 at 10:48 AM
By the way, the article that flipflop links to re: Robert Baer – whatever you think of Baer’s contentions on other issues, the article incorrectly mentions once again that Baer’s book “See No Evil” (on which Syriana, the movie, is ‘based’) skewers the oil companies. It does no such thing. The producers of Syriana just wanted to use Robert Baer as a character I think. The actual book, which is a fascinating read, doesn’t even talk about oil. It skewers the gov’t for gutting CIA HUMINT operations during the ’90s and being PC about it. For example, he gives an account of hunting down Iranian agents in Lebanon, including one of our current Most Wanted Terrorists, that were holding Americans hostage at the time and then being told to stand down. Yeah, that wasn’t in Syriana. Anyway, that’s my two cents about that.
CP on February 13, 2007 at 10:51 AM
someone set us up the bomb!
bloggless on February 13, 2007 at 10:59 AM
This is not news to me. I felt confident several months ago that Iran would get their bomb.
I presumed that the “nasty letter writing campaign” would do nothing. Sanctions (or the threat of) would do nothing. And the U.S. is hamstringed by Democratic Hive for any type of military strike.
It’s like being surprised that we had a sunrise this morning.
natesnake on February 13, 2007 at 11:21 AM
To their credit, the Iranians play world foriegn policy better than anyone else.
Poker is an easy game to play when you know your opponents are always bluffing.
natesnake on February 13, 2007 at 11:26 AM
It will happen. I have a love hate relationship with Baer. It seems as if the Clinton Admin had them all so hamstrung that many of the operators got so pissed they don’t know what to do, or where to turn. You’re talking about some of the most ‘A’ -”Type A” people in the world.
The Clinton fiasco turned over a bag of sh*t called intelligence to the Bush Admin, with nothing to do but clean up and pray away all the mistakes.
What I don’t understand is why Baer left out the Russian factor here. Too obvious? too close? There are thousands of unused former USSR engineers that need money, need to do something, and feel beaten by America. Iran has money and I don’t think they like us much either.
“inevitable” It’s only a matter of time, if left alone.
shooter on February 13, 2007 at 11:33 AM
When does the statue of limitations re “blaming all on Clinton” expire? 6 years obviously is not enough.
honora on February 13, 2007 at 11:42 AM
Is this the same EU that thought Saydamn had weapons of mass destruction?
Dread Pirate Roberts VI on February 13, 2007 at 12:00 PM
Grrr… our stinking government is in such disarray its pathetic…
Even the Chairman of the Joint Cheifs can’t seem to get it through his head that MILITARY grade weapons would not be available to be exported WITHOUT at least tacit permission from the government. To build, and transport, a large amount of weapons would not be possible if the Iranian government did not want them available.
Add in our own leftists, and we look sooooo stinking incompetent…
Romeo13 on February 13, 2007 at 12:07 PM
honora,
When the last terrorist that they let go, turned a blind eye to, or refused to do anything about breathes his last.
I take it “BushCo” will FOREVER be to blame, however. No SOL there.
major john on February 13, 2007 at 1:02 PM
What’s so sadly distressing about having the light bulb finally switch on over the collective heads of the EU is how utterly predictable this progression has been.
It’s like two people observing somebody who’s clearly mentally unstable as he assembles an M-16:
European observer: “Hey, what are you doing?”
Madman: “Nothing, really.” [Drops firing pin into bolt carrier and inserts retaining pin]
American observer to European: “Looks like he’s assembling a rifle to me.”
European to American: “Huh? He just said he’s not doing anything.”
Madman to European: “Don’t listen to him! You know what a paranoid, delusional cowboy he is!” [European eyes American suspiciously as Madman places extractor into bolt carrier and inserts pin]
European to Madman: “Well, you’ve got a point about that … but, what are you building there?”
Madman: “None of your business!”
European: “Oh. OK.”
American to European: “It’s a rifle, I’m telling you!”
European to American: “Are you sure? I mean, it doesn’t look like a gun right now. Besides, even if it was a rifle – and you still haven’t sold me on that – it’s all in pieces right now, how can he hurt anybody with it?”
American to European: “That’s precisely the point! We need to keep him from getting it assembled so he can’t hurt anyone!”
European to Madman: “Do you want to hurt anyone?”
Madman: “Death to the Jews! Death to the Americans!” [Slides bolt assembly and charging handle into upper assembly and locks both in place]
European to American: “Well, he sounds pretty frightened to me. And you are pretty scary, you know.”
American to Madman: “Stop what you’re doing, or somebody’ll have to take that gun away from you!”
European to American: “Hey, stop being such a bully! He can be reasonable – ”
Madman: “When I finish building my modern-day sword of the infidel-slayer, woe be unto you, sons of monkeys and pigs!”
European to Madman: “Uh, that’s not nice.”
Madman: “I’m only defending myself!” [Places upper and lower assemblies together and pushes locking pins in place]
American to European: “Now does it look like a rifle to you?”
European: “Well …. yeah, sorta.”
European to Madman: “If that really is a gun you’ve got there, how are you going to make it work without any bullets?”
Madman: “You’ve got bullets, don’t you?” [Performs function check on assembled rifle]
European: “Yes … why do you ask?”
Madman: “If you give them to me, I promise that I will think about not putting them into my magazine here.”
European: “OK – here you go.” [to American} "See? I told you we could reason with him."
Madman to European: "Sucker!" [Begins inserting rounds into magazine]
European to Madman: “Hey, you said you wouldn’t put those into the magazine!”
Madman: “I said I’d think about it.”
European: “Oh, yeah, that’s right.”
Madman: “Death to the Jews! Death to the Americans!”
European to American: “Well, I don’t know what we can do about it now – looks like he’s going to have a loaded rifle pretty soon, it’s inevitable … [shrugs] How’d this happen, anyway? Somehow, this must be all your fault, you yahoo. If I’d only had some more time to reason with him, without you pushing him into a corner with all your swaggering and blustering…
Spurius Ligustinus on February 13, 2007 at 1:19 PM
Honora, the STATUTE of limitations for such a dysfunctional administration is never up. Especially considering the party he represented is continuing to show their desire to head down the road to pacifism, socialism and several other ism’s we won’t even get into. The Clinton Legacy will be one that lives in infamy (assuming our republic lasts)as the first administration in history to care only about the betterment of them and their friends. With Carter we had just stupid ineptitude, with Clinton and Company, there was ineptitude, lies, criminal activity and a refusal to perform the responsibilities charged to the President of the United States (basically the security of our country). So lefties can argue, throw temper tantrums and cry all they want, the bottom line is until someone worse comes along (Mrs. Clinton maybe?)slick Willy is going to be our punching bag.
rayvet on February 13, 2007 at 1:26 PM
Prewarning, this is a joke, please don’t send the Fed’s to my house.
“If I could get my hands on some matterial, they’d get the bomb alright!”
- The Cat
P.S. Don’t send K-Fed either.
MirCat on February 13, 2007 at 2:46 PM
Ms. H. C’mon, you know better. It can take years and years to get operatives in place and that castle can be brought down in minutes, and totally ruined in one Clinton term. The replacement of agents and contacts can take years, possibly decades of hard dangerous work to get in place. There are many good spy books from WWll to present, read three or four to get a tiny picture of what happens. Start w/ Robert Baer’s book ‘See No Evil’, he’s not too mad at the admins by then.
At least you agree that Slick Willy WAS and IS responsible for pretty much every single thing ever wrong with the USofA. from now til eternity…/
But for you? 26 years, then I’ll stop Blaming this Clinton.
shooter on February 13, 2007 at 9:23 PM
They aint gettin no bomb. We had better make sure of that.
johnnyU on February 13, 2007 at 9:57 PM