Think tank: Iran could have the bomb in two or three years

posted at 2:49 pm on January 31, 2007 by Allahpundit

So says the UK’s esteemed International Institute for Strategic Studies, which is already on record as believing that Iranian nukes are inevitable. The good news? They’re backing away from that a tiny bit. The bad news? Our own (now former) spychief, John Negroponte, claimed recently that Iran was probably no closer than four years away.

Guys? Let’s not overshoot on this one.

While Iran could conceivably build a bomb in two years, a three-year time frame was more likely, said Mark Fitzpatrick, a non-proliferation expert at the institute. He said estimates floated by U.S. intelligence were conservative — a likely result of its chastening experience in Iraq.

“The CIA is being extra cautious these days,” he said…

The U.N. on Dec. 23 imposed sanctions on Iran for pursuing enrichment efforts, and gave it 60 days to suspend the program…

The CEO seems to think sanctions are our best bet for stopping it:

“There are signs that political and economic pressure is having an impact in Tehran,” said John Chipman, the institute’s chief executive, speaking at the launch of the its annual publication,The Military Balance…

Chipman also said it was possible that growing disquiet within Iran over Ahmadinejad’s leadership — and the economic troubles linked to possible sanctions — may open a debate in the country on the wisdom of pursuing the nuclear program.

“Whether the internal debate will lead to a suspension in the enrichment program that would provide the basis for resumed negotiations remains to be seen,” he said.

If I were Bush trying to drum up support for an attack, I’d have Tony Snow march out there and say, “They’ll have the bomb in two years — and we’re not going to attack to stop them.” Given which party’s likely to be in the White House when this comes to a head if Bush doesn’t deal with it first, the left will practically beg him to send the bombers now.


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I’m off to create my “Iran Had Nothing To Do With 9/11″ protest sign.

RightWinged on January 31, 2007 at 2:56 PM

Bush is just leaving this for Hillary to clean up, and she really resents it.

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on January 31, 2007 at 3:08 PM

Alla,
I think you are on to something their. Since the Dems have made it their number one priority to be against Bush for the past 7 years (other then that brief moment when 9/11 drove them sane) they would probaly start the coalition to remove Irans Nukes 2 minutes after the press release.

Wyrd on January 31, 2007 at 3:09 PM

I think that’s a great idea AP.

Griz on January 31, 2007 at 3:10 PM

Iran could have the bomb in two or three years

No way. Israel will act before they get one. Of course, this will cause its own problems…

jman on January 31, 2007 at 3:14 PM

Let’s wait to act until they have the bomb and use it. That’s the prudent thing to do! /sarcasm

lorien1973 on January 31, 2007 at 3:17 PM

The CEO seems to think sanctions are our best bet for stopping it:

and why not? They’ve always worked so well in the past.

RedWinged Blackbird on January 31, 2007 at 3:21 PM

These guys, IMHO, are like weathermen, for all they know they could have one already.My advice, always bring an umbrella no matter what the weather prediction is.

bbz123 on January 31, 2007 at 3:26 PM

well, they said China was years away from being able to shoot down a satalite…
They also say China is 12 years from an aircraft carrier… Oh yeah, and they said that a terrorist attack could not happen on American soil, and that if we pull out of Vietnam and refuse to send aid then the North and South would live in peace and Harmony.

They sound like they are full of sh*t.

Wyrd on January 31, 2007 at 3:32 PM

I’d say they have it and are ready to use it. I believe Ackmendoggiejog said sometime in February, Iran would enter the nuclear age.

Gwillie on January 31, 2007 at 3:57 PM

And our new “friends” the Russians are helping them. I’m currently reading “Epicenter” by Joel Rosenberg (his first non-fiction) about the relationship between Iran and Russia, among other topics. Pretty scarey stuff about the Bible and the End of Days. Iran and Russia are falling right into line with Bible Prophesy.

Funny, the Euros don’t wants us to stop Iran, yet they are within range on Iran’s missiles. I guess they figure ‘Who cares if Israel gets nuked?’ but they won’t stop there, Euro-dhimmis, you’re next! Then they’ll be crying ‘America, please help us!’ You can’t talk ‘em out of it either, they see your spineless Euro-talk as weakness.

If America is the Great Satan and Israel is the Little Satan, guess who the “Medium Satan” is? EUROPE! And they mean this also in distances for their missiles! But sleep easy Europe, Israel and America will prevent your nuclear destruction and you can whine and cheese about all ya want.

Tony737 on January 31, 2007 at 3:58 PM

I’d say they have it and are ready to use it. I believe Ackmendoggiejog said sometime in February, Iran would enter the nuclear age.

Gwillie on January 31, 2007 at 3:57 PM

I saw that speech too…I think on MEMRITV. He also mentioned he would reveal something the world has never seen before, sometime in mid February.

infidel on January 31, 2007 at 4:10 PM

Tony, I agree with everything you said.
I’m reading the Rosenberg book, too–at least, I’ve started it. It’s so scary and sounds so eerily possible, if not probable, that I don’t want it read it (Ignorance is bliss?).
I’ve read his novels and they scare me,too, because I think he’s right.

I don’t believe this report. I hope that President Bush acts as if they already do have the bomb and are close to using it and from what I’ve seen, he does.
God bless him!
(What were we doing and thinking when Saddam built Osirak?
And what in the hell was the Clinton Administration doing and thinking when both India and Pakistan went nuclear?)

Jen the Neocon on January 31, 2007 at 4:17 PM

““The CIA is being extra cautious these days,” he said.”

The intelligence community’s problem historically has been that it’s been caught flat-footed when other countries are developing nukes. Saddam Hussein was much further along in 1990 than we thought he was; the Pakistanis surprised us; so did the Indians; so did the Libyans.

So it should come as no surprise if the Iranians are a lot closer than the 4-to-10 year time frame that the “intelligence” community is saying it’ll take them to have their first nuclear weapon ready to go. Given their feverish pace at building centrifuge assemblies and processing weapons-grade fuel (the stuff that we know about, at least), I wouldn’t be shocked to learn that they’ll be a nuclear power next year, if not this year.

Spurius Ligustinus on January 31, 2007 at 4:43 PM

I think there is a deep but very secret and shameful desire among the liberal-Left to see Israel obliterated (just think how many “problems” that would “solve”), and this will keep them from doing too much about stopping Iran from going nuclear.

Halley on January 31, 2007 at 4:52 PM

And yet we sit idly by because we might piss off Luxembourg and Liechtenstein.

MaiDee on January 31, 2007 at 6:02 PM

Halley, that’s the great unspoken truth.

shaken on January 31, 2007 at 7:16 PM

If I were Bush trying to drum up support for an attack, I’d have Tony Snow march out there and say, “They’ll have the bomb in two years — and we’re not going to attack to stop them.” Given which party’s likely to be in the White House when this comes to a head if Bush doesn’t deal with it first, the left will practically beg him to send the bombers now.

LOL

aengus on January 31, 2007 at 7:44 PM

The irony is that the weight of evidence that Iran was behind terrorism around the world, never mind nukes, was always far greater than any evidence of such re Iraq.

I just hate it when eeny, meeny, miney moe doesn’t work out.

honora on February 1, 2007 at 4:03 PM