Good news: China stuns U.S. intel by testing anti-satellite missile; Update: No defense
posted at 12:27 pm on January 18, 2007 by Allahpundit
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And the race to militarize space is on!
If the test is verified it will signify a major new Chinese military capability.
Neither the Office of the U. S. Secretary of Defense nor Air Force Space Command would comment on the attack, which followed by several months the alleged illumination of a U. S. military spacecraft by a Chinese ground based laser.
China’s growing military space capability is one major reason the Bush Administration last year formed the nation’s first new National Space Policy in ten years, Aviation Week will report.
It gets worse, says Defense Tech:
[I]f this anti-sat weapon was really “kinetic” — i.e., hit-to-kill, non-explosive — instead of a plain ol’ exploding weapon, that’s extremely bad news. That means the booster rocket has to be very accurate “in order to deliver the kill vehicle to the desired initial trajectory…. Then the kill vehicle needs to tweak its trajectory into a precise collision course using on-board propulsion and either on-board target tracking or… command guidance from the ground.” That’s no mean task.
DT wrote about another Chinese experiment in space warfare back in September involving anti-satellite lasers. That wasn’t really a “test,” though — allegedly, the lasers were fired at American orbiters.
It’s worth reading the whole post at Arms Control Wonk by Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in this area who’s calling this “a very disappointing day”:
In my forthcoming book, Minimum Means of Reprisal, I warned that China might move toward ASATs as a counter to the development of US missile defense and conventional strike capabilities—although I thought we might have more time than this…
If China has conducted an ASAT test, this is extremely bad. I had been hoping that the Bush Administration would push for a ban on anti-satellite testing, either in the form of a code of conduct. The Bush folks, however, have been fond of saying that wasn’t necessary, because “there is no arms race in space.”
Well, we have one now, instigated by an incredibly short-sighted Chinese government.
Update: Noah Schachtman of Defense Tech e-mails with a link to DT’s latest post and a pithy warning that “this [development] is REALLY bad.”
There’s nothing we can do to defend our eyes in the sky as of this moment, and there won’t be for years to come. And every new test, of which more are expected, complicates things further:
The Chinese trial could “lead to nearly 800 debris fragments of size 10 cm or larger, nearly 40,000 debris fragments with size between 1 and 10 cm, and roughly 2 million fragments of size 1 mm or larger,” the Union of Concerned Scientists’ David Wright notes on the Arms Control Wonk blog. “Roughly half of the debris fragments with size 1 cm or larger would stay in orbit for more than a decade.”
Update: Canada, South Korea, Australia, and Japan are all expected to lodge protests. This is a seriously big deal.
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Oh, happy day.
How many times must the CIA be shocked or unprepared for a major action by another country before we realize the organization just might not be good at doing what it’s supposed to be doing?
Slublog on January 18, 2007 at 12:34 PM
*sniff sniff*
Excellent. Smells like more future no-bid defence contracts to companies firmly under Republican Cabal Control.
Hoodlumman on January 18, 2007 at 12:34 PM
…
I don’t even know where to go with this one.
“What CIA?”
I mean they do realize that their mission is to collect TRUE information about what other nations are doing… right?
Especially the world’s fastest growing super power…
SIGH.
Jones Zemkophill on January 18, 2007 at 12:38 PM
Maybe if we talk to the Chinese really nicely they’ll be nice to us.
Lord knows the touchy feely political climate in this country won’t allow us to confront anyone that wants to do harm to the United States. God forbid we hurt someone’s feelings.
Chad on January 18, 2007 at 12:46 PM
Why is anyone who is surprised by this happening still drawing a US taxpayer funded salary?
pedestrian on January 18, 2007 at 12:48 PM
Good thing that Star Wars technology is a pipe dream of Ronald Reagan or else we might have to worry about it.
windbag on January 18, 2007 at 12:50 PM
It’s very bad, mkay.
journeyscarab on January 18, 2007 at 12:50 PM
FYI,
The CIA quit doing “space” many years ago, there are much better agencies for that topic. Based on personal experience with those agencies I have a strong suspicion this was not as much of a surprise as we are led to believe. It is harder to hide an ASAT program than you might think. Besides, if the Chicoms think we are suprised then they won’t expect our work to be as far along as it is.
Centurion68 on January 18, 2007 at 12:56 PM
Thank you very much Clinton/Gore. No,really.
What did the Hildebeast know and when did she know it?
bbz123 on January 18, 2007 at 12:57 PM
Yeah……. the classified missle technology that Clinton authorized to give to China that leap-froged them about twenty years wasn’t anything to worry about. Good thing they financed his election. No harm done…… nothing to see folks, just go about your day.
PinkyBigglesworth on January 18, 2007 at 1:11 PM
Short-sighted? Why should the Chinese not test? What do they have to fear from us?
We’ve done everything but help them aim the laser and have stupidly thought that free trade bribery would bring them to the democracy club.
Just like No. Korea, they will barter the best bribe and continue the same course they were already on.
Why not, we’re stupid enough to go along with it.
G. Gordon Liddy said, It’s the big fish that eat the little fish.
Who’s the big fish?
Speakup on January 18, 2007 at 1:20 PM
So this is why they gave Jack Bauer back, eh? We let them shoot stuff in space, we get Jack back. Hmmmm…I question the timing.
robblefarian on January 18, 2007 at 1:23 PM
The Chinese are patient. They wanted Tibet for nine hundred years, and they got it. Should they want us, they will wait another nine hundred years if that’s what it takes.
mikeomatic on January 18, 2007 at 1:31 PM
Just keep buying those cheap Chinese products, they are our friends. Yeah right. How can our people be so stupid? Yes I buy some products from China, but only because I don’t have much choice. I’ve said it before I will gladly pay 3 times as much for a product built at home, and I do If it is available. I think the greatest generation has sold us down the river so that they will have a comfortable retirement!
And the gen xers just don’t get it.
Gooch on January 18, 2007 at 1:48 PM
Well, surely they will wait until after the Olympics.
That gives us what?? … 18 months or so for the ‘Rocket Surgeons’ to come up with some protection.
LegendHasIt on January 18, 2007 at 1:50 PM
ummm … yeah, I thought according to the left we didn’t need a military?
One Angry Christian on January 18, 2007 at 1:54 PM
Hot Air Straw Poll:
Who is responsible for letting this happen?
A) Clinton
B) New York Times
C) Moonbat Bloggers
D) Congressional Democrats
E) Liberal Hollywood Types
F) All of the Above
JaHerer22 on January 18, 2007 at 2:00 PM
Everyone who buys products made in China is guilty. That means all of us and the US goverment’s falut for not acknowledging the threat to it’s citzenz cleary.
This is unforgivavle. We may well end up being destroyed as a nation within the next 10-15 years. It will happen that fast at this pace. Who are Islams sponsers of tech and tactics?
Egfrow on January 18, 2007 at 2:04 PM
Gooch:
The Greatest Generation were fine soldiers and patriots, but they ignored the dangers of raising soft kids; they indulged their children to a revolting degree simply becuase it had never in the history of America been possible to thus indulge your kids, and the greed and narcissism of the Boomers is the result of this fatally flawed take on childrearing.
FUCK the Greatest Generation. If they’d cared about their kids enough to raise them RIGHT, we wouldn’t have half the problems we’ve got.
mikeomatic on January 18, 2007 at 2:19 PM
Gooch: My last response didn’t get through, so…
To HELL with the Greatest Generation. If they hadn’t indulged their kids’ greed and self-esteem so damned much, just because parents could afford to be indulgent for the first time in American history, then we wouldn’t have the crappy Boomers we’ve got and we’d have that fewer problems in this country.
mikeomatic on January 18, 2007 at 2:21 PM
At first I was going to be very upset that US intelligence once again dropped the ball and didn’t see yet another very major development coming.
Then, I realized, playing dumb and claiming to be surprised is the way that US intelligence hides it’s extremely accurate data about friends and enemies alike.
There, now I feel safer.
Pass some more Kool Aid!
JadeNYU on January 18, 2007 at 2:34 PM
Centurion -
I hadn’t read your post before I posted my post and now realize that my post might appear to be implying that you’ve been drinking the Kool Aid.
I was actually just attempting to make myself feel better about the fact that we once again didn’t seem to know something major was coming.
You seem to have inside (or at least informed) information that it is unlikely that US intelligence was truly surprised that the Chinese were testing ASATs.
Now, instead of having to trick myself into feeling better, I can actually feel better. :)
Just wanted you to know I wasn’t mocking you.
JadeNYU on January 18, 2007 at 2:38 PM
Thank you Clinton and Gore !
DoctorDentons on January 18, 2007 at 2:57 PM
Why would this media reporting be any more accurate than all the rest?
Griz on January 18, 2007 at 2:57 PM
Why should anyone be shocked that they want an ASAT capability? If you could take out GPS and our Recon capabilities you have significantly reduced our “warfighting” ability. It is the most obvious thing to concentrate on.
duff65 on January 18, 2007 at 3:10 PM
Say hello to the new soviet Union. I told y’all the Cold War paradigm was coming back.
Hey how is China getting all this money to fund all these projects? I guess that enourmous trade deficit was a big deal after all. Thanks Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Bush. Had any of these men seriously sealed the border with Mexico their state run enterprises would have crumbled years ago, allowing U.S. companies to come in and save them with jobs, probably alot of textile jobs. China did not have any competition so they got all of our business. We have financed this, the “high cost or low price”, and we have no one but ourselves to blame. Clinton’s BJ seems alot less important now.
*sigh*
Can we splice Newt Gingrich, Pat Buchanan, and D. James Kennedy into a goodlooking 40 something Republican? Where is our candidate?
Theworldisnotenough on January 18, 2007 at 3:18 PM
Thanks for covering this Allah. – Robert
ganeshpuri89 on January 18, 2007 at 3:27 PM
Just show’s how idiotic our professors and “researchers” are. Our enemies and rivals will do whatever they think advances their interests. Staying in the good books of a bunch of people that they likely fund, who were funded by the KGB, and are ideologically committed to socialism if not communism is not exactly on their priority list.
Shut down these traitorous bastards and lets get on with advancing the interests of the US and the West. Trillions for defence, not one penny for welfare or tribute, and no appeasing the sensibilities of our enemies, rivals, or “allies”.
libertarianuberalles on January 18, 2007 at 3:30 PM
China Matters post linked to by Defense Tech very much worth a read: China Wants a Piece of the Sky
ganeshpuri89 on January 18, 2007 at 3:35 PM
Perhaps Presidency by committee wouldn’t be such a bad idea, it is a big job.
I wonder if three people could legally run for one Presidency?
Speakup on January 18, 2007 at 3:43 PM
Allah,
Why are you assuming US Intel didn’t know about this?
From the aviation week article:
Emphasis added. Why do people often assume that when something happens that is surprising to the public that US Intel somehow didn’t know?
NPP on January 18, 2007 at 3:47 PM
It’s called “crapping in the punchbowl”, and it’s understandably annoying.
mojo on January 18, 2007 at 3:48 PM
FWIW
The satellite the ChiComs knocked down was at an alitude of “more than 500 miles.”
GPS satellites orbit at 10,988 nautical miles (I’m too lazy to do the conversion to “real” miles right now)
Geosynchronous orbit altitude is 22,300 miles.
Not saying the ChiCom test isn’t bad news, just that it could be worse
bdfaith on January 18, 2007 at 3:50 PM
I think, NPP, that, to use Allah’s descriptive, US intel agencies are not stunned by the test but, rather, by its success.
ganeshpuri89 on January 18, 2007 at 3:53 PM
With what seems like a large part of the military infrastructure relying on GPS nowadays (smart bombs, navigation, etc), does the military have fallback solutions for getting things where they need to go, so to speak? Or if the GPS system is seriously damaged, does that mean our troops will be resorting to knives and sticks?
Anyone with more knowledge than I on this subject know the answer?
Hack Ptui on January 18, 2007 at 3:56 PM
Bill Clinton is responsible for this.
No, this isn’t “Clinton hater” rhetoric, but fact. Really.
The story is long and sordid and the ‘younguns’ among you may not remember, ’cause it happened in the New Camelot years of the 90’s.
In the early 90’s, Motorola designed the Iridium satellite-based cell phone system. Using a constellation of low earth orbit satellites, Iridium would allow a compact handset to make a phone call anywhere on the planet to any other phone on the planet, without complicated dish alignment. It would be like making a cell phone call, but without having to have towers nearby.
In order to get the necessary 66 birds plus spares in orbit in a reasonable time, Motorola needed launch capabilities that exceeded that of NASA.
The Clinton administration (after a suitable “campaign contribution” from Motorola), allowed Motorola to purchase rides to orbit from the Chinese. Okay, it wasn’t a simple quid (”bribe”) pro quo (”foreign export license”), but involved an entire business venture into China. From pagers, to encrypted military two-way radios, to manufacturing plants in China. In all, Motorola sunk more than 2 billion dollars into China (maybe more, but I’ve since sold my Motorola stock so I haven’t kept up).
The problem was that China’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (the launch vehicle for Motorola’s satellites) were completely unreliable and more often than not failed to reach orbit.
What was the exact Clinton administration role in this?
1. Encrypted radios required an export license because of the technology. Encrypted radios from Motorola were the deal maker if Moto was going to get into China or to to get the birds launched at all.
2. Export licenses required DOD and State Department approval. Which both departments denied. In fact SecState Warren Christopher was adamant in refusing any militarily useful exports to China, not only for radios but for computers, jet engine designs and manufacturing machinery, missile guidance technology, or anything else that would improve China’s military.
3. China’s missiles were crap. They were a “paper tiger” that simply didn’t threaten the United States because an ICBM that blows up on the pad or during launch is NOT a credible threat to the United States. It is estimated that in 1994, China had ONLY 2 reliable ICBMs capable of launching, but whose accuracy was questionable. Nor was China’s missiles useful vehicles to launch communication satellites, even into low earth orbit.
4. To improve the reliability of the missiles and get Moto’s birds and other commercial payloads into orbit, the Chinese hired Hughes Space and Communications Company and Loral Space & Communications Ltd. However, improving China’s satellite (and ICBM) launch capability required export licenses, as these are clearly covered technologies that cannot be exported to “unfriendly” countries by greedy western businesses. Warren Christopher and DOD demurred and refused to issue them.
5. In order the “expedite” the export licenses, the CEO’s of Hughes and Loral repeatedly “slept in the Lincoln Bedroom” (i.e., gave hundreds of thousands of dollars to the DNC, played golf with Clinton, attended soirees with Bill and Hillary), and China gave hundreds of thousands to the Clinton’s personal bag man, AL GORE, to personally carry back to Washington from a California “fund raiser” involving “Chinese Budhist nuns” in a campaign money laundering scheme. (Remember when Gore said that there was no “controlling authority” over his behavior in this?)
6. Clinton closed the deal with China by moving export licensing from DOD and State to Commerce and Ron Brown. Who promptly approved them.
7. Even with the export licenses, Hughes and Loral went FAR BEYOND what was approved and gave China the technology to not only launch satellites, but ACCURATELY TARGET cities in the United States.
BTW, this is all amply documented (unlike the utter nonsense and lies from Rep Hinchey) in the 1999 bi-Partisan Cox Report that is available from http://www.house.gov and in the book Betrayal : How the Clinton Administration Undermined American Security by Bill Gertz (1999). Both of these document in explicit detail how Clinton undercut national security and illegally transferred military technology to China — and how he was handsomely repaid for doing so.
China’s military capability in space comes from (1) Motorola’s Iridium launches, (2) Hughes’ and Loral’s ILLEGAL transfer of space technology to China to accomplish (1), and Bill Clinton’s (and Al Gore’s) open flouting of the law and acceptance of corporate bribes from China and Hughes/Loral to “get ‘r done” in transferring export licenses to Commerce and his good-buddy Ron Brown.
And, if Hillary does get the Democratic nomination for President, it will prove, once again, that the DEMOCRATIC PARTY is the party of treason, because China’s missile capabilities are where it is at today, BECAUSE OF BILL AND HILLARY’s “Co-Presidency.” And you though I was simply a hyper-partisan Republican, didn’tya?
Potestas Democraticorum delenda est!
georgej on January 18, 2007 at 3:58 PM
This is exceptionally disturbing because there is only one defense that doesn’t involve a pre-emptive strike; weapons in space.
For those that think that ballistic missiles (with either conventional or nuclear warheads) on hair-trigger alert might be a defense against this, I’ll point out that a successful kinetic-kill ASAT program is exceptionally close to a successful ABM program. While detection time is reduced significantly for a ballistic missile, the speeds and mathematics involved are for all practical purposes identical. Furhter, depending on the size of that weather satellite, a ballistic missile’s re-entry vehicle isn’t that much smaller.
Boy, am I glad that we can’t put weapons into space because some jack<rest of expletive deleted> decided that nobody other than the American Military Industrial Complex™ would ever dream of militarizing space </sarcasm>.
steveegg on January 18, 2007 at 4:11 PM
Noted:
On the day of the test, a U.S. defense official said the United States was unable to communicate with an experimental spy satellite launched last year by the Pentagon’s National Reconnaissance Office. But there was no immediate indication that this was a result of the Chinese test.
ganeshpuri89 on January 18, 2007 at 4:29 PM
steveegg, I’m not too sure you’re correct that a kinetic-kill ASAT is exceptionally close to a full-up ABM program; the ’speeds and mathematics involved’ are only one small aspect, you also have to take into account what phase the missile is in (and hence what weapon to kill it with), target discrimination (much more difficult when the possibility of decoys are involved), size (reentry vehicles are much smaller), rapidity of shots (how quickly can you fire), size of area to cover… while the Chinese test is indeed bad news, it’s not ‘exceptionally close’ to a successful ABM program.
dalewalt on January 18, 2007 at 5:02 PM
In the hills of Camp Pendleton, behind the beautiful city of San Clemente, sits a major corporation, with one road in and surronded by the Camp Pendleton marines. The most sophisticated lazer weapon testing laboratoy in the world.
The “booms” coming from that center rattles the hills, the technology would boggle the mind. The testing is always concealed by the “ordinance” of Camp Pendelton.
We are in good shape concerning lazer tech.
right2bright on January 18, 2007 at 5:13 PM
right2bright, I believe you meant ‘ordnance’ of CP :)
What is the NYT’s take on this?
What do the environmentalists have to say about all that debris?
Entelechy on January 18, 2007 at 5:20 PM
I’d be surprised if any of the debris actually made it to the ground.
dalewalt on January 18, 2007 at 5:25 PM
I’m not too worried about China taking out our best military satellites (yet), but I think our commercial satellites are pretty vulnerable. I think other country’s satellites are vulnerable.
They’ve been waging war against our economy for years. What do you think the world would do if China knocked out one of our telecom satellites? What if these fragments start pelting satellites and knocking them out?
Mind you, I don’t think it’s likely anything would happen, but it always scares me because the international community is so inept at dealing with impending threats. I’d like to think we are better at dealing with threats, but with the new Congress… What is the over/under on how much damage China could hypothetically do before they faced any repercussions? Whatever it is, I’ll take the over.
reaganaut on January 18, 2007 at 5:38 PM
Wait a minute. We have military spacecraft?
Bad Penny on January 18, 2007 at 6:00 PM
And we all know that the clinton administration had nothing to do with enhancing chinese missle technology.
Right, sandy?
locomotivebreath1901 on January 18, 2007 at 6:15 PM
A few observations:
1. The Chinese have made no secret that they consider the United States to be their most likely wartime opponent in the future (except perhaps for Taiwan, but then Chinese aggression against Taiwan is likely what would trigger a Sino-American war). The Chinese are well aware of our heavy reliance on satellites for communications, navigation, reconnaissance and weapons targeting; thus it should come as no surprise to anybody that they would undertake measures to negate our space-based capabilities. This is not, to pardon the expression, “rocket science.” Nobody should be surprised by this development.
2. Why is it that whenever the topic of American missile defense comes up, the “popular wisdom” is that it’ll never work, the technical challenges are too difficult, the testing doesn’t reflect reality, the enemy can easily defeat the system, blah blah blah … while when the Chinese undertake something almost as technologically audacious – kinetic hit-to-kill anti-satellite weapons or anti-satellite lasers – “popular wisdom” assumes that they’re simply able to accomplish this and that there’s nothing we can do?
The answer to this question is that we do train for the possibility that we won’t have all of our technological means available. For example, I’m currently at Gowen Field, Idaho, going through Cav Scout training. We plan on the worst-case scenarios:
- We train with GPS land navigation systems, but receive even more training with the old-fashioned map, compass and protractor.
- We train with GPS and laser-rangefinder means of calling for and directing indirect fire, but train even more with binoculars, map, protractor and compass.
- We train with radios to direct and control movement, but train even more with arm and hand signals.
There’s always the hope that our people at places like DARPA and the U.S. Space Command are coming up will all kinds of ways to defeat a Chinese “Pearl Harbor” in space; but just in case they’re able to pull off such a strike, we still train for the possibility that we won’t have our high-tech toys available to play with, at least for a while.
Spurius Ligustinus on January 18, 2007 at 6:17 PM
A.P., the race has been “on” for a while now. The Chinese didn’t just roll out of bed this morning and shoot down a satellite. They’ve been working on space warfare for a while. So have the Russians. And us.
Bottom line: In the 21st Century, control of space will be to warfare what air superiority became in the 20th Century. If you have it, life on the battlefield is much, much easier. If you don’t have it, life on the battlefield is going to be much, much more problematic.
Spurius Ligustinus on January 18, 2007 at 6:44 PM
Anybody got any blow up satellite decoys hanging around?
Speakup on January 18, 2007 at 6:49 PM
10 988 mile [nautical, international] = 12 644.764 574 883 mile [international]
shooter on January 18, 2007 at 8:02 PM
Next thing you will tell me it is not nuculear.
right2bright on January 18, 2007 at 8:12 PM
JadeNYU,
I must admit that when I first read your post I checked my glass to make sure it wasnt kool aid! No harm.
Yes, I do have some connection as I have worked with satellite systems (ours and others) in the past. I am not saying I know for sure we weren’t surprised. I am basing my statements on previous experience and current capability knowledge. No, we aren’t perfect at catching everything, but we do get more than the press and others give us credit for.
I want to also note I am not trying to make light of this issue. If they do get an ASAT capability as described, it will be a VERY BAD thing.
Centurion68 on January 18, 2007 at 8:34 PM
You’re right, but its not the ground we’re concerned with, it’s the billions of dollars in communications and ‘other’ sat’s up there that a 1 inch piece of metal could/WOULD obliterate if they collided. Not to mention our shuttles.
Can we start to believe in Ronald Reagan NOW? Maybe even retroactively decide to act on a few issues?
shooter on January 18, 2007 at 8:41 PM
BRAVO!!!!!!!!!
PinkyBigglesworth on January 19, 2007 at 12:00 AM
Thanks for the info and links georgej.
Yakko77 on January 19, 2007 at 12:13 AM
Thank you georgej!! That is the most accurate account I have seen of the Clinton legacy EVER. That is the true Clinton legacy: Selling out our national security to the Chinese after Reagan tried to convince Congress that Star Wars would be the future.
Here we are with another Clinton co-presidency looming if this country does not wake up to their treasonous ways!! Believe me. They will find a way to remove the Obama obstacle from their path!
LonelyMassRepublican on January 19, 2007 at 6:05 AM
Just remember our real military offense and commucications sats, in space, are dark and deep. Meaning they are not activated, and are undetectable because of the where they are postitioned. An act of war would be to take out our existing sats, but that does not cripple our military, hampers it, but not cripple.
Also as a follow up to georgj, Reagan sold high speed printing equiptment and the chip tech to China, he was villafied by every demo in the government, even those who knew this little secret. In each one was a homing chip. In the first gulf war or aircraft used those radio signals to identify the first wave of attacks against their defense systems. We sold them the tech, that allowed us to track.
We have to be careful of who and why we blame. No supporter of Clinton, but lets hope he used the same military minds as Reagan. Not everything is as it seems.
right2bright on January 19, 2007 at 10:53 AM
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