The problem is that Po-210 is useful as a trigger for a nuclear explosion.

I.e., nightmare scenario. Whether they can do it or not is one thing, but we sure as hell know they want to. It’s MI5′s gloomy assessment that our enemy has London in their sites.

You don’t have to use expensive polonium, you can use cheap plutonium in the same way Zimmerman describes above.

Even as an assassin’s weapon, it’s terribly because the target, when dosed, lingers for days.

Actually, that makes it great as an assassination weapon: By the time the victim shows any symptoms he is beyond realistic hope of recovery, and the assassin is long out of the country. However, there are much cheaper substances that can have the same effect; eg Thallium.

“What am I missing?”

Trigger.

As for the lethality of ether material, I was stationed in Germany when the Chernobyl reactor exploded and literally TONS of radio active material was ejected into the atmosphere, yet the body count was actually quite low and is contributed to direct exposure to the radiation at the site and not to inhalation of radio active particles in or around the area. I am quite sure I inhaled radioactive particles in Germany, as that cloud spread over most of Europe, and I have yet to feel any effects from that exposure. It takes quite a bit of material to seriously contaminate you and make you ill, let alone kill you.

I’m not worried about any ‘dirty bombs.’ There’s far easier and more effective ways to kill mass numbers of people. Hell, with a couple of dozens of gallons of tomato sauce and a few days time, I could cook up enough botulism toxin to sicken hundreds of people. All I would need to do is put the toxins in a aerosol sprayer and drive around town. It’s really not that hard.

An irrational urge won over an irrational fear.

Exactly! I’ll take Elites sipping tea whispering scandalous tales at the Po210 Bar than mass hysteria in the streets. The more the populous is exposed (no pun intended), the less they fear it, the less the effects of the primary purpose of a dirty bomb.

blogRot on December 19, 2006 at 1:42 PM Doubtful. Sounds more like the urge to rubberneck trumped the fear of radiation. An irrational urge won over an irrational fear.

it’s the ECONOMY STUPID!

:)

t’s not important to mass hysteria how radioactive it is, as long as the message gets out that you can’t breathe.

pedestrian on December 19, 2006 at 12:08 PM

Precisely. Terrorism depends on striking “terror”. Remeber when we were all looking to the skies for days, weeks, months every time we heard a low flying plane? Well if the AIR can kill you….

A dirty bomb only works effectively because of humanities irrationally exaggerated fear of radiation

I totally agree, but I read somewhere that the restaraunts/hotels where the Po-210 murder(s) occured has increased its traffic because they are popular now. Maybe that tide of irrationally has turned somewhat? If we don’t fear it, the terrorists can’t use that against us.

Externally, alpha emitters are a nuisance. Internally, they are a serious problem. We take great pains at the reactor sites to prevent inhalation or ingestion of radioactive material.

Bushs nuturing of India’s nuclear program is but another example of the power of Lobbyists in America. But that is another topic.

The threat posed by a dirty bomb has never been, and will never be, the bodycount

Your explanation is far more succinct than the screed I was going to post.

(1) Let’s say you can produce 50 widgets per year.

(2) Let’s say the market for widgets, which you have cornered by underselling everyone else, is only 30 widgets per year at the price you have set, and you have set the optimum price.

(3) The 20 ‘surplus’ widgets are somewhat worthless, since you cant sell them without depressing prices below optimum, and you can’t simply store them because widgets go bad within a year or so. You also can’t really cut production because the 50 widgets are a by-product of processing a certain quantity of material, and you were going to process that material anyway. So what do you do?

You look for something else to do with those 20 widgets.

…in THIS case AP’s analysis is right on. Even if he is off by an order of magnitude as far as cost, polonium will never be a weapon of mass destruction. It is simply not available in quantities sufficient to kill many people. While Putin might get the stuff essentially for free, he would only have limited quantities. Terrorists, on the other hand, simply can’t get the stuff on their own, period. Terrorists don’t have the nuclear reactors and sophisticated technology and expertise required, and if they came anywhere close to such capabilities, for example if Iran was doling out nuclear material to terrorists, then polonium would be the least of our worries.

The threat posed by a dirty bomb has never been, and will never be, the bodycount. A dirty bomb only works effectively because of humanities irrationally exaggerated fear of radiation. A successful dirty bomb would be designed to spread as much very hard to clean up radiation as possible over the most valuable, densely packed real estate possible: places like the core of high rises in a major urban city. A dirty bomb in these areas would cause mass panic, and totally shut down the area for weeks or months. Even if the radiation was almost completely cleaned up, property values would crash and people wouldn’t want to work there. So a dirty bomb is a very effective economic weapon in that it is very cheap and potentially low tech to produce, and it has a very big impact on peoples lives even though it isn’t going to actually kill them.

…played down the possibility of using alpha radiation…

I work using this stuff, and the new regs (NRC et al) that have come out since 9/11 are seriously taking this issue into account. This guy is either late to the game or just trying to get his name published riding on the popularity/infamy of Po210.

Henry

The short half-life of the material is also a problem from a production, stockpiling, planning, and shipping/smuggling perspective.

But you are correct. There’s not a pracitcal usage of the bomb. Even as an assassin’s weapon, it’s terribly because the target, when dosed, lingers for days. It’s also expensive and short-range.

It’s much more effective to release a sarin-like bomb in a closed area than a “dirty” bomb, although the psychological effect of a “dirty bomb” is far greater than that of any other explosive.

You’ll even have people calling in a “nuclear bomb” because it’s made from radioactive waste.

It’d be more dangerous as an areosol. Put it in a Binanca container and squirt people. They won’t think twice about it, just dismiss you as clumsy until they start exhibiting symptoms hours later.

I talked about Polonium-210 at my blog in detail. I hold a Ph.D. in chemistry, so I do know something about it. If I really wanted I could ask a colleague to guest-blog, as he loves nuclear and heavy-metal chemistry, but given his amount of concern over the subject (minimal), I don’t think it’s really worth his time.

It’s not important to mass hysteria how radioactive it is, as long as the message gets out that you can’t breathe.

I’m with you. I wouldn’t put it past the terrorists to find a way to steal it, but buy it legitimately? Nah.